市场资讯及洞察
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震荡中的信号,港股能否迎来真正的底部?
10月,恒生指数延续回调格局,全月累计下跌948点,月初触及27,381点高位后快速回落至25,145点,跌幅达到61.8%的黄金比率水平,随后虽反弹至26,588点,但未能持续突破,显示短期受均线压制,向上动力有限。内地9月制造业PMI创半年低位且低于预期,加上全球宏观因素如美元走强、通胀压力持续,使恒指多次受挫,市场情绪谨慎。

进入11月,恒指夜期先行反弹69点,显示短期市场情绪略有回暖。此前美联储降息预期和中美贸易谈判利好消息已陆续落地,提供有限支撑,但短期缺乏新利好刺激,恒指重返高位可能性有限。若A股走势改善或科技股业绩超预期,恒指未来两个月仍有机会向今年高位27300点挑战。
本周一盘中,恒指回到26,000点附近震荡,显示市场仍在观望。技术面上,强势股指数微升,弱势股指数下降,优质板块仍具一定抗跌能力。整体来看,港股短期延续震荡整固格局,预计仍在25,300至26,300点区间震荡整理。

市场个股表现
从板块来看,科技股受业绩不及预期及全球芯片需求疲软影响出现回调;高股息蓝筹如银行、公用事业等抗跌板块成为资金避险首选;部分资源类个股受金属价格反弹支撑出现阶段性上涨;房地产板块风险仍存,部分开发商财务困境对市场情绪形成压制。总体而言,港股呈现“震荡筑底”态势,反映出市场在基本面、政策面及宏观因素间的博弈。
主要影响因素
- 美联储政策预期主导资金流向
多位美联储官员暗示降息窗口可能在明年上半年开启,短期推高风险资产包括港股和A股的资金流入。然而,美国通胀仍保持黏性,政策宽松节奏不确定,使市场短线资金频繁进出,缺乏持续上涨动力。对于港股而言,这意味着短期资金流入可能只是“阶段性反弹”,而非趋势性上涨。 - 内地经济复苏分化,港股估值修复受限
中国10月制造业PMI略低于荣枯线,显示复苏力度仍不足。尽管政策持续宽松,如专项债加速发行、房地产融资边际放松,但企业盈利恢复仍需时间。港股估值虽处历史低位,但市场仍在等待更强的基本面催化。投资者可关注政策落地力度及企业盈利改善的信号,这将决定港股后续的估值修复空间。 - 地缘局势与全球风险偏好
中东紧张局势持续,提升全球避险情绪,推动黄金、原油价格上行,部分风险资产承压。港股短期可能面临外资重新配置至美元或避险产品的压力,削弱流入力度。同时,人民币汇率波动也让南向资金趋于保守,进一步增加市场的不确定性。 - 宏观经济数据与市场情绪
美国通胀压力仍存,市场对降息预期降温,加息预期增强可能导致资金流出香港,从而对港股形成下行压力。中国经济数据虽显示复苏,但房地产市场调整拖累整体增长,使市场短期内难以形成强劲上涨动力。 - 行业特定新闻
中国科技行业监管政策仍是市场关注焦点。虽然监管有所缓和,但未来可能出台的新规仍对科技股产生压力,导致板块短期承压。投资者应关注科技股业绩发布及政策变化,以判断其中长期投资价值。 - 地缘政治因素
中美关系紧张、贸易摩擦及技术竞争仍在,对市场情绪形成影响。国际贸易环境的变化可能影响港企盈利前景,从而影响港股表现,尤其是出口导向型及高科技板块。
结构性机会与市场影响
尽管港股整体震荡,但结构性机会逐渐显现:高股息、现金流稳定的金融与公用事业板块受机构青睐;科技股短期承压,但AI、半导体及互联网龙头中长期前景仍被看好;新能源与资源板块受能源转型及金属价格上涨支撑;内地消费和旅游板块若政策落地,有望迎来补涨。
如果政策与市场流动性同步改善,恒指有望逐步筑底并展开估值修复;反之,若全球通胀回升或地缘风险加剧,市场可能继续维持震荡格局。短期来看,恒指预计将在25,300至26,300点区间震荡整固,投资者应关注内地经济数据、科技股业绩及全球宏观因素对市场的影响。
总体而言,港股正处筑底期,中长期投资价值逐步显现。投资者应保持审慎,密切关注市场动态,并结合板块机会进行合理配置,以应对潜在不确定性。
免责声明:GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人;并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。
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作者:
Alena Wang | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - N Net change Net change refers to the difference between the closing price of the current trading session and the closing price of the previous trading session. This can be positive or negative, and simply represents whether a market is up or down compared to the previous day. Net income Net income is the total amount of profit made by an organization after all expenses, depreciation, amortization, interest, taxes etc. are deducted from it's gross income.
NIKKEI The NIKKEI index is the leading 225 stocks traded on Tokyo's Stock Exchange. Non-current assets Non-current assets are company’s long-term investments of which the full value will not be realized during the current accounting year, such as land holdings. Non-farm payrolls Non-farm payrolls gives monthly statistics describing number of people who are employed in construction, manufacturing and goods companies in the US.
Also referred to as NFP's. Learn more about Non-farm payrolls

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - M Macro-based A trading strategy driven by macroeconomic factors. Maintenance margin Also known as the "variation margin", the maintenance margin is the amount of funds that must be available to keep a margin trade open. Margin call A margin call is when a broker requests an increase maintenance margin from a trader, in order to keep a leveraged trade open.
A margin call occurs when the percentage of an investor’s equity in falls below the broker’s required amount; this occurs after a position decreases significantly enough in value. Margin calls are charged to limit exposure to the participants, and mitigate risk to the broker. Margin Margin is the amount of funds required to open and maintain a leveraged position. e.g. a $500,000 position leveraged at 500:1 would required $1,000 in funds from the trader.
Margin deposit A margin deposit is the amount a trader needs to put up in order to open a leveraged position. This can also be referred to as the initial margin, or simply as the deposit Market capitalisation A companies market capitalisation is the total market value of the company’s shares on the market. Market capitalisation, or "market cap", is simple way for investors to gauge a company’s size, which can factor into their investment strategy.
Market data Market data refers to live streaming of trade-related data. This information can include market volume, price, bid and ask quotes and more. Marketing data is available on virtually all markets including commodities, shares, indices, FX etc.
Learn more about Market data releases Market maker A market maker is an trader that buys and sells large amounts of a particular asset in order to facilitate liquidity. A maker can institution or individual. Market order A market order is an instruction to a broker from the trader to execute a trade immediately at the current best available price.
This can be a 'buy' or 'sell'. Merger A merger is when two or more companies combine to become a single larger entity. This typically has significant financial implications and effect on the value of the participating companies stock value.
A promising merger will usually resulting in an increase in share prices. Learn more about Mergers MetaTrader MetaTrader is an popular online trading platform used for to trade a wide variety of instruments. MetaTrader 4 and Metatrader 5 versions are available with different tools and tradable assets.
Monte Carlo "Monte Carlo" refers to a method of measuring risk by developing a modelling and predicting future investment prices. This is then used to predict the worst-case loss scenario of an investment. Moving average convergence/divergence The MACD (moving average convergence/divergence) is a technical indicator which aims to identify changes in a share price's momentum.
The MACD helps traders identify possible opportunities around support and resistance levels by collecting data from different moving averages. Learn more about the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence oscillator (MACD). Moving average Often abbreviated to "MA", the moving average is a common indicator in technical analysis, used to examine price movements while reducing the impact of random spikes in an assets price.
Learn more about Moving Averages Multilateral trading facilities MTFs offer investment firms and traders an alternative to traditional exchanges. MTFs typically allow trade of a wider variety markets and equity products, including assets which may not have an official market. Multiplier effect Multiplier effect describes the impact that changes in monetary supply can have on economic activity.
When an government (or potentially company or individual) spends significant money it has a trickle-down effect the businesses and the economy which can have a much wider impact than the initial action.

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - Kiwi "The Kiwi" is a slang name for New Zealand's Dollar. Key currency Key currencies are stable currencies that don't vary too much, which can be globally used to set exchange rates and support international trade. Examples of key currencies include the U.S. dollar, the British pound, the Euro, the Japanese yen, the Canadian dollar or the Swiss franc.

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - L Leverage Leverage lets traders multiply their investment without the need to invest additional capital. e.g. If a broker offers 20:1 leverage, with an investment of $1,000 a trader could open a position of $20,000. It is important to note that leverage amplifies both profits and losses, it is critical this be factored in when determining risk and potential losses.
Liabilities Liabilities are a companies debts and financial obligations represented on its balance sheet. This is critical in determining the value of a company when potentially investing and liabilities offset company assets. Limit orders Limit orders execute a trade at a particular level that is more favorable than the marketing price at that time.
Limit down / limit up Limit down is the maximum amount a commodity future may decrease, while limit up is the maximum amount one may increase, in a single trading session. Liquidity (Market liquidity) Liquidity is used in finance to describe how easily an asset can be traded. When there is a high volume of active traders of an asset, there is high liquidity, and it is easier to find buyers and sellers for that asset.
Low liquidity markets can be difficult to trade, as there may not be many buyers and sellers willing to trade at an agreeable price. London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) LIBOR is a daily reference rate based on the interest rates at which banks borrowed unsecured funds from other banks in the London interbank market, however LIBOR is being gradually discontinued. USD-LIBOR has been replaced by SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) and GBP-LIBOR has been replaced by SONIA (Sterling overnight index average).
Long "Going long" refers to taking a position that makes profit if an asset’s market price rises. Also referred to as "taking a long position". Lot A lot is a standardised group of assets that is traded instead of a single asset.
In the futures markets, lots are referred to as "contract sizes".

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - J

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - I Iceberg order An Iceberg order divides large orders into smaller segments. They are often used by traders for the purpose of hiding the full order quantity in order to minimise market disruption. Ichimoku Cloud The Ichimoku Cloud is a technical analysis indicator that shows support and resistance levels, as well as momentum and trend direction.
Roughly translated from Japanese, 'Ichimoku Kinko Hyo' means ‘one look equilibrium chart,' meaning traders can receive an array of information with just one look. In the money In the money (ITM) is defined by an option’s state of ‘moneyness’. More specifically, it refers to when an option goes beyond its strike price, giving it an intrinsic value of more than $0.
Index An index is a measure of something. In trading, an index is a grouping of financial assets that are used to give a performance indicator of a particular sector. Indices trading Indices trading refers to traders' endeavors to make money on the price movements of indices.
Inflation Inflation is the increase in the cost of goods and services in an economy, or the decline in the purchasing power of money (devaluing of currency). Learn more about Inflation. Interest Interest is the charge levied against a party for borrowing money, which can be either a cost or a means of making profit for a trader.
In trading, it can also refer to the amount of ownership a stockholder has in a company. Interest rates The amount that a lender charges to a borrower for the loan of an asset. The rate is expressed as a percentage of the loan.
Intrinsic value Intrinsic value is a measure of the perceived value of an asset. This is not always the same as the current market price because assets can be over- or undervalued. Interbank/Interdealer Market A market only open to large financial institutions, to trade between them.
This market is not restricted to a physical location and it does not have a centralised exchange. Investment capital A trader’s investment capital is the financial resources they currently have available for trading. It could be in the form of money or other assets.
It can also refer to funds invested in a firm or company for the purpose of furthering its business objectives. Investor An investor is a person who devotes capital to an investment, with the hope of seeing a return. The main goal of any investor is to minimise risk and maximise return.
IPO IPO stands for initial public offering. This is the first sale of a stock by a company, when it goes public on a stock exchange. This can also be known as floating, flotation, or just ‘going public’.