市场资讯及洞察
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震荡中的信号,港股能否迎来真正的底部?
10月,恒生指数延续回调格局,全月累计下跌948点,月初触及27,381点高位后快速回落至25,145点,跌幅达到61.8%的黄金比率水平,随后虽反弹至26,588点,但未能持续突破,显示短期受均线压制,向上动力有限。内地9月制造业PMI创半年低位且低于预期,加上全球宏观因素如美元走强、通胀压力持续,使恒指多次受挫,市场情绪谨慎。

进入11月,恒指夜期先行反弹69点,显示短期市场情绪略有回暖。此前美联储降息预期和中美贸易谈判利好消息已陆续落地,提供有限支撑,但短期缺乏新利好刺激,恒指重返高位可能性有限。若A股走势改善或科技股业绩超预期,恒指未来两个月仍有机会向今年高位27300点挑战。
本周一盘中,恒指回到26,000点附近震荡,显示市场仍在观望。技术面上,强势股指数微升,弱势股指数下降,优质板块仍具一定抗跌能力。整体来看,港股短期延续震荡整固格局,预计仍在25,300至26,300点区间震荡整理。

市场个股表现
从板块来看,科技股受业绩不及预期及全球芯片需求疲软影响出现回调;高股息蓝筹如银行、公用事业等抗跌板块成为资金避险首选;部分资源类个股受金属价格反弹支撑出现阶段性上涨;房地产板块风险仍存,部分开发商财务困境对市场情绪形成压制。总体而言,港股呈现“震荡筑底”态势,反映出市场在基本面、政策面及宏观因素间的博弈。
主要影响因素
- 美联储政策预期主导资金流向
多位美联储官员暗示降息窗口可能在明年上半年开启,短期推高风险资产包括港股和A股的资金流入。然而,美国通胀仍保持黏性,政策宽松节奏不确定,使市场短线资金频繁进出,缺乏持续上涨动力。对于港股而言,这意味着短期资金流入可能只是“阶段性反弹”,而非趋势性上涨。 - 内地经济复苏分化,港股估值修复受限
中国10月制造业PMI略低于荣枯线,显示复苏力度仍不足。尽管政策持续宽松,如专项债加速发行、房地产融资边际放松,但企业盈利恢复仍需时间。港股估值虽处历史低位,但市场仍在等待更强的基本面催化。投资者可关注政策落地力度及企业盈利改善的信号,这将决定港股后续的估值修复空间。 - 地缘局势与全球风险偏好
中东紧张局势持续,提升全球避险情绪,推动黄金、原油价格上行,部分风险资产承压。港股短期可能面临外资重新配置至美元或避险产品的压力,削弱流入力度。同时,人民币汇率波动也让南向资金趋于保守,进一步增加市场的不确定性。 - 宏观经济数据与市场情绪
美国通胀压力仍存,市场对降息预期降温,加息预期增强可能导致资金流出香港,从而对港股形成下行压力。中国经济数据虽显示复苏,但房地产市场调整拖累整体增长,使市场短期内难以形成强劲上涨动力。 - 行业特定新闻
中国科技行业监管政策仍是市场关注焦点。虽然监管有所缓和,但未来可能出台的新规仍对科技股产生压力,导致板块短期承压。投资者应关注科技股业绩发布及政策变化,以判断其中长期投资价值。 - 地缘政治因素
中美关系紧张、贸易摩擦及技术竞争仍在,对市场情绪形成影响。国际贸易环境的变化可能影响港企盈利前景,从而影响港股表现,尤其是出口导向型及高科技板块。
结构性机会与市场影响
尽管港股整体震荡,但结构性机会逐渐显现:高股息、现金流稳定的金融与公用事业板块受机构青睐;科技股短期承压,但AI、半导体及互联网龙头中长期前景仍被看好;新能源与资源板块受能源转型及金属价格上涨支撑;内地消费和旅游板块若政策落地,有望迎来补涨。
如果政策与市场流动性同步改善,恒指有望逐步筑底并展开估值修复;反之,若全球通胀回升或地缘风险加剧,市场可能继续维持震荡格局。短期来看,恒指预计将在25,300至26,300点区间震荡整固,投资者应关注内地经济数据、科技股业绩及全球宏观因素对市场的影响。
总体而言,港股正处筑底期,中长期投资价值逐步显现。投资者应保持审慎,密切关注市场动态,并结合板块机会进行合理配置,以应对潜在不确定性。
免责声明:GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人;并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。
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作者:
Alena Wang | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - H Handle In trading, the term ‘handle’ has two meanings, depending on which market you are referring to. In most markets, handle is the the part of a price quote that exists to the left of the decimal point in the full quote. In forex, it refers to the part of the quote that you see in both the buy and sell price.
Hawks and doves The terms used by analysts and traders to classify the members of the Central Bank committee ahead of their votes and monetary policy is known as Hawks and doves. Learn more about Hawks and Doves Hedge/Hedging A hedge is an investment or trade designed to reduce your existing exposure to risk. The process of reducing risk via investments is termed as 'hedging'.
Heikin Ashi Heikin Ashi is a type of chart pattern used in technical analysis. Heikin Ashi charts are similar to candlestick charts, but the main difference is that a Heikin Ashi chart uses the daily price averages to show the median price movement of an asset. High frequency trading A form of advanced trading platform that processes a high numbers of trades very quickly using powerful computing technology is termed as High Frequency Trading (HFT).
It can be used to either find the best price for a single large order, or to find opportunities for profit in the market in real time.

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - F Face Value Face value represents the amount that must be paid out at a bond or stock's maturity. It may also mean the dollar value of a security, set by the issuer. Fair value Fair value is the present value of a stock, once the stock's intrinsic value is considered.
This may cause debate, as fair value is based on a subjective understanding. Federal Reserve Referred to as the ‘Fed’ for short, the Federal Reserve is the central banking system in the United States. Fiat currency Money that is given legal tender status by a government and is not linked to the value of physical commodities like gold or silver.
Fibonacci retracement A Fibonacci retracement is a technical analysis tool that can help traders identify when to open and close a position, or when to apply stops and limits to their trades. It involves drawing trend lines on price charts between two points, usually the price highs and lows, in order to find possible areas of support and resistance. Fill Fill is the term used to refer to the completion of an order to trade a financial asset.
There is no guarantee that every trade will become filled. Financial instrument A financial instrument is a contract between two parties, which act as financial assets. These can be traded and settled.
Financial market A marketplace where the trading of securities occurs. The financial market provides an avenue for the purchase and sale of financial assets. Fixed costs Fixed costs are the expenses incurred by a company that are not impacted by the scale of production.
Fixed costs remain constant for a given period. Floating exchange rate A floating exchange rate is where the price of a currency is determined by supply and demand factors, relative to other currencies. Currencies with floating exchange rates can be traded without any restrictions, unlike fixed exchange rates.
FOMC The FOMC stands for the Federal Open Market Committee, which is a committee of the Federal Reserve System. The FOMC is in charge of decisions around interest rates and the US money supply. Forex Forex is a global marketplace for trading international currencies.
It is sometimes referred to as foreign exchange or FX. Forward contract A contract that has a defined date of expiry, which obliges the holder to buy or sell an asset by a specific date. The contract can vary and be customised between different instances.
Fundamental analysis Fundamental analysis is a method of evaluating the intrinsic value of an asset and analysing the factors that could influence its price in the future. This form of analysis is based on external events and influences, as well as financial statements and industry trends. Learn more about exit systems for a fundamental approach Futures contract A futures contract is an agreement between to buy or sell an asset at a defined price on a specified date in the future.
They are also sometimes referred to simply as ‘futures.'

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - E Earnings per share Earnings per share (EPS) is the net profit of a company, divided by the number of outstanding shares. A tool commonly used to measure a company's profitability. EBITDA EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) is a way of evaluating a company’s performance.
An alternative measure to net income. ECB ECB stands for the European Central Bank, which is the central bank for the eurozone. Equity Equity can have several different meanings in the context of trading, however it usually refers to the ownership of an asset without any debt.
Equity options Equity options are contracts affording the owner the right, not the obligation, to trade to buy or sell shares of the underlying security at a specified price before the expiration date. ETF ETF stands for Exchange Traded Fund, which is a type of fund that is traded on a stock exchange. Learn more about ETF's ETP ETP stands for Exchange Traded Products, which are types of financial products that are publicly traded on a stock exchange.
Eurobond A eurobond is a debt instrument denominated in a currency other than the home currency (the market or country where it was issued). Sometimes referred to as external bonds. Eurodollar Bonds A type of eurobond, eurodollar bonds are denominated by the US dollar, but are sold outside of the US.
Can be sold worldwide. Exotics Exotics refer to c urrencies that are less actively traded. Exchange An open marketplace where financial instruments are traded.
An exchange can also be described as ‘the market.’ Execution The completion of a buy or sell order from a trader, actioned by a broker. Expiry date The day when a trading position automatically closes. Expiry (of a futures contract) The expiry date of a futures contract is the last day you can trade that contract.
Exposure Exposure can mean a variety of things in trading. It can either be the amount of money invested in a certain asset, or the total market value of an investor's open trades. Or it can refer to the total amount of possible risk at any given time.

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - D Dark pools Dark pools is a privately organized financial forum or exchange for trading securities. They allow institutional investors to trade without exposure until after the trade has been executed and reported Day order A day order is provision placed on an order to a broker to execute a trade at a specific price that expires at the end of the trading day. Day trading Day trading involves buying and selling stocks before the market closure, with the aim of earning short-term profits.
Debt ratio Debt ratio is an indication of how much debt a company is holding, when compared to the value of its assets. It can also be applied to individuals: in which case it is the cost accrued by their debt compared to total income each year. Delta Also termed as hedge ratio, Delta is a measure used in options trading to assess how the price of an options contract changes as the price of the underlying asset moves.
Depreciation Decline in an asset's value is defined as Depreciation. It can happen either due to market conditions or other factors like wear and tear. It is the opposite of appreciation.
Derivative Derivatives are financial products that derive their value from the price of an underlying asset. Derivatives are often used by traders as a device to speculate on the future price movements of an asset, whether that be up or down, without having to buy the asset itself. Direct market access (DMA) Direct market access (DMA) is a way of placing trades directly onto the order books of exchanges.
As a result, DMA offers traders flexibility and transparency when trading. But due to the risks and complexities involved, it is usually recommended for advanced traders only. Dividend A portion of profit that an organization chooses to return to its shareholders in terms of percentage is known as dividend.
Dividends are commonly paid quarterly, but in some cases are paid annually, or even monthly, depending on the companies policy.

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - C Cable Cable in forex is the nickname of the GBP/USD currency pair, which is one of the most popular currency pairs on the market. Calendar Spread A calendar spread is a trading technique, which involves buying a derivative of an asset in one month and selling a derivative of the same asset in another month. The calendar spread represents the difference in the price of the same asset from one futures contract to another.
Call option A call option is an option to buy an asset at a given price by a specific date. Learn more about Call Options Capital expenditure Funds spent on physical assets. Capital gains Capital gains are the profits made from the buying and selling of assets, when the sale of an asset exceeds the original cost.
Capital gains tax Capital gains tax (or CGT), is the tax levied by the government on the profits made from selling any financial assets. Capital loss Opposite of capital gains. When the sale of an asset is less than the original cost to the owner.
Cash flow Cash flow is the amount of money coming into and going out of a company, and the resulting availability of cash. It can refer to a single project or the entire business. Cash Price Not to be confused with Prompt or Spot price, the cash price refers the price paid or received for immediate delivery of a good or asset.
The cash price and spot futures price should converge the closer you get to the spot futures contract expiry. Cash rate Also known as a bank rate or base interest rate, the cash rate is the interest rate charged by a central bank for loans to other banks. Chartist A chartist trader relies predominantly on charts to help them understand historical data in order to better speculate on future price movements.
Also commonly known as technical analysts, or technical traders. Closing price The price of a security on a financial market at the end of the trading day. Closing prices can be used as a marker when looking at long-term historical movements, or they can be compared to the opening price to review the movement over a single day.
Commission Commission is a service charge by an investment broker for making trades on a client's behalf. Commodity A commodity is a basic physical asset, which can be bought and sold. Commodities can often be categorised as a raw material, used in the production of other goods or services.
Contracts for difference Contracts for difference (CFDs) are a type of financial derivative where your gain or loss is based on the price of the asset when the contract opens and closes. It is an arrangement made where the differences in the settlement between the open and closing trade prices is cash settled and there is no delivery of physical goods or securities. Learn more about CFDs Contract (Lot) A Lot is a trading unit, representing a set amount of a particular asset.
A standard lot in the forex market is $100,000. A mini lot is $10,000. Convexity Bond convexity is a measure of the "degree of the curve" or difference, between a bond’s price and a bond's yield.
It is a risk management tool used to assess the impact that a rise or fall in interest rates can have on a bond’s price – which highlights a bond holder’s exposure to risk. Contango Typically seen when the market is well supplied, contago is when the futures price of a commodity or security is higher than the spot price (present price). Here we would expect the higher price of the futures contract to reflect the commodity cost of carry.
Cost of carry Cost of carry is the amount of additional money you need to hold a position. This can include overnight funding charges, interest payments, or the costs of storing any commodities on the delivery of a futures contract. These charges are an important consideration when trading, as they will affect your net return.
Covered call A covered call is a call option trading strategy, where you hold an existing long position on a tradeable asset and write (sell) a call option against the same asset to generate extra income. The aim is to increase the overall profit that a trader will receive. Learn more about Covered Calls CPI CPI stands for consumer price index, which measures the change in average prices paid by US consumers, month to month.
Learn more about CPI Crystallisation Crystallisation is the act of realising a profit or loss, by selling a position and immediately reopening it again. Currency appreciation The increase in value of one currency compared to another. The 'strengthening’ of a currency in Forex trading means that it would cost more to buy, or that it can buy more of another currency when sold.
Learn more about currency appreciation Currency depreciation A decrease in a specific currency's value, relative to another currency in a floating exchange rate system. In a floating exchange rate system, a currency’s value is set by the forex market, based on supply and demand. Learn more about currency depreciation Currency peg A fixed exchange rate of its currency, set by a national government or central bank.
It can sometimes also be referred to as a fixed exchange rate or 'pegging'. Learn more about Currency Pegs Currency Swap Sometimes referred to as a cross-currency swap, this is an agreement between two parties to exchange principal and fixed rate interest payments in two different currencies to an agreed rate of exchange. Learn more about Currency Swaps.

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - A Acquisition (mergers and acquisitions) When one company purchases or 'takes over' either the majority or the entirety of the ownership stake of another company. American Depositary Receipt (ADR) The ADR represents securities of a foreign company and enables American investors to own shares in foreign corporations. ADRs trade on the US stock exchange and the sponsoring bank collects dividends, pays local taxes and converts them to dollars for distribution to American shareholders.
American Option An options contract which can be exercised at any time prior to expiration. Aggregate demand The overall demand for goods and services in the economy, showing how current price relates to GDP (gross domestic product). Aggregate supply The total supply of goods and services that can be sold in a national economy - at a particular time and during a particular period.
Alpha The measurement of the performance of an investment portfolio, against a certain benchmark. Measuring the "success" of a portfolio over a period of time. The alpha can be positive or negative, depending on its proximity to the market.
Learn more about Alpha Amortisation Paying off a loan or obligation over a period of time in installments or transfers. Amortisation will often incur interest payments, at the discretion of the lender. Annual general meeting (AGM) A yearly meeting of the shareholders of a company and its board of directors.
Generally, the directors to present the company’s annual report to shareholders at this meeting. Arbitrage Arbitrage is simultaneously buying and selling an asset, in order to take advantage of a temporary difference in price. The asset will usually be bought and sold in different markets.
It can also be the calculation of the relative value of stocks, bonds or funds at the same time, in two or more places. Learn how to use Arbitrage trading to increase profits. Ask (Offer) price The asking price from the seller, at which you can buy an asset or security.
Asset classes Physical assets or financial assets grouped into a category. The instruments are grouped based on whether they have similar characteristics, behave in the same way on the market, or follow the same laws and regulations. Assets In trading, an asset refers to what is being traded or exchanged on the market, for example stocks, bonds, commodities or currencies.
It is an economic resource which can be owned or exchanged to return a profit or held for a future benefit. At the money At the money (ATM) is a term used to describe the relationship between an option's strike price and the underlying securities price. The term describes a strike price that is the same as the market price.
Learn more about At the Money Auction An auction market facilitates competition between buyers and sellers, where buyers indicate the maximum price they will pay for an asset, while sellers express the lowest price they will sell at. Automated trading (to be expanded) Automated trading - sometimes known as algorithmic trading – is the use of algorithms for making trade orders. It allows traders to set specific rules and parameters for making trades, which will be executed automatically once triggered.
Averaging down When a stock owner purchases additional assets when the asset’s price drops, it is referred to as averaging down. The purpose of the second purchase is to decrease the average price at which the investor purchased the stock. Learn more about Averaging Down