One of the must-watch economic events this week will be the Bank of Canada interest rate decision. The decision is scheduled to be announced on Wednesday at 14:00 PM London time. It will be the first meeting since the new United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA).
The bank has increased its interest rates four times since July of last year, so will there be another hike? Why Is The Announcement Important? A bank interest rate is a rate at which a countries central bank lends money to local banks.
The interest rate is charged by nations central or federal bank on loans advances to control the money supply in the economy and the banking sector. The Bank of Canada has an inflation target of 1% to 2% (currently 2.8%), and the interest rates are changed accordingly to meet the target. Therefore, the Bank of Canada’s and other central bank rate decisions can have a significant impact on the financial markets.
Expectations In a recent speech, Stephen Poloz, the Governor of Bank of Canada said he continues to believe gradually increasing interest rates is the right approach. According to the latest forecasts, it is highly anticipated that the Bank of Canada will raise its interest rates in the upcoming meeting from 1.5% to 1.75%, potentially a fifth rate hike since July 2017. "We expect the Bank to hike this month, in addition to hiking four more times in 2019, as the BoC’s measure of core inflation touched 2.0% for the first time since 2012 in August and is facing increased capacity constraints," said Daniel Hui, an analyst at J.P. Morgan. "This [October] hike was already well anticipated by markets even before the USMCA breakthrough (80% priced before, 90%+ priced now), so it is the forward-looking rhetoric that might imply future pace and terminal rate that is more important for markets to monitor," says Hui.
All eyes will be on the decision on Wednesday. This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions.
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