The stronger-than-expected US non-farm employment change data release last week saw the DXY climb strongly higher, beyond the 103 price level. With markets now anticipating that the US Federal Reserve could reinforce its hawkish stance, further upside is expected for the DXY. On the other hand, uncertainty rises over the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy stance following the surfacing of rumors that Masayoshi Amamiya was approached to succeed the current BoJ Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda.
The appointment of Amamiya as governor could likely see the BoJ continue with its ultra-easy monetary policy, ultimately leading to further weakness for the Japanese Yen. Technical Overview The recent change in sentiment of the DXY has led the USDJPY to pause on the previous downtrend, finding support at the 127.00 price area. The current retracement of price to the upside has seen the USDJPY break above the bearish trendline formed in November last year.
If this upward momentum continues and the USDJPY breaks above the 133.50 price level, which coincides with the 23.60 Fibonacci retracement level, this could signal confirmation for a bullish correction. The USDJPY could continue to trade higher, with the bullish momentum supported by the divergence in the Moving Average Convergence & Divergence (MACD), toward the target price level of 142.50 price level, formed by the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level and previous swing high from November 2022.
By
JinDao Tai
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