Most watched this season
Apple • Microsoft • Alphabet • Amazon • Nvidia • Meta • Tesla
與 GO Markets 一起交易美國財報季
美國財報季期間，眾多大型上市公司將陸續公佈業績。財報結果、業績指引及市場預期的變化，往往會在短時間內對個股、行業板塊甚至整體指數造成顯著影響，市場波動隨之加劇。
具競爭力的交易成本
在財報公布等行情快速變化時段，幫助您更好管理交易成本。
專業技術分析工具
利用圖表與技術指標，輔助您制定入場、出場及風險管理策略。
為活躍交易者打造
穩定可靠的交易平台，搭配快速執行，滿足高頻與短線交易需求。
風險管理功能
使用內建風控工具，在波動行情中更清楚控制下行風險，保護持倉。
本財報季重點關注
美國財報日曆
顯示的時間採用澳洲東部標準時間（GMT+10)。您可隨時在「收益日曆」設定中變更時區。
市場資訊與分析
四月份的美国财报季即将来临，这个市场想要的不仅仅是一个好故事。 摩根大通 已经设定了很高的标准，取得了强劲的业绩，现在注意力正在转移到标准普尔500指数的引擎室上：人工智能基础设施，其中三家公司处于故事的中心。
为什么这个收益窗口对人工智能很重要
微软、Alphabet和NVIDIA不仅是人工智能周期的参与者，他们正在构建其他公司所依赖的物理和软件架构：芯片、云区域、模型和工具。如果这笔支出要带来回报，那么最初的迹象可能会在未来几周的季度业绩中开始显现。
每家公司都代表不同的测试。
- 微软： 企业采用人工智能是否转化为收入和利润扩大
- 字母： 无论拥有从芯片到云再到分发的完整堆栈是持久的优势，还是仅仅是一种昂贵的防御阵地
- NVIDIA： 硬件周期是否仍在持续、加速或开始趋于平稳
到2026年，问题不再是人工智能投资是否在进行，资本承诺巨大，并且已经公开表态。问题在于这笔支出产生回报的速度是否足够快，足以证明这些赌注的规模是合理的。
IMPORTANT: REPORTING SCHEDULES CAN CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. REPORTING DATES AND RELEASE TIMES ARE FROM COMPANY INVESTOR RELATIONS CALENDARS WHERE MARKED CONFIRMED; OTHERWISE THEY ARE GO MARKETS ESTIMATES. CONSENSUS EPS, REVENUE AND ANALYST-RANGE DATA ARE FROM THIRD-PARTY MARKET CONSENSUS SOURCES, AS OF 16 APRIL 2026 (AEST). COMPANY GUIDANCE, BACKLOG AND OPERATING METRICS ARE FROM THE LATEST COMPANY FILINGS OR RESULTS PRESENTATIONS UNLESS STATED OTHERWISE. FIGURES AND SCHEDULES MAY CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE.
Microsoft Corporation
Global Release Countdown (AMC)
Market Intelligence: $MSFT
Analysis: Microsoft price drivers and scenarios
Analysis: Microsoft price drivers and scenarios
Microsoft is being tested on a specific question: can it turn heavy AI spending into margin expansion? A result above US$4.14 could ease concerns over "capex fatigue" and demonstrate whether Azure growth is re-accelerating alongside enterprise AI adoption.
Factors that could move the markets
Sentiment Analysis · Microsoft Corp.
Interactive scenario analysis: $MSFT
Interactive scenario analysis: $MSFT
Strong result, backed by real AI progress
Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 16 April 2026 (AEST). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings or results presentations. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.
Beyond the chipmakers
As the "show me the money" year unfolds, discover how AI demand is impacting Tesla, NextEra, and Exxon.
Alphabet: search to infrastructure
Alphabet has transformed from a search business into a sprawling AI infrastructure play, and this result will test whether that transformation is delivering. The US$185 billion capex forecast for 2026 is extraordinary, close to double last year's spending.
EPS is expected to decline slightly year on year, precisely because that infrastructure spending is consuming capital. The question is whether Google Cloud's growth is fast enough to show a credible path back to margin recovery, and whether Ironwood, the seventh-generation custom AI chip, is proving its cost-per-query advantage at scale.
Alphabet Inc.
Global Release Countdown (AMC)
Market Intelligence: $GOOGL
Analysis: Alphabet price drivers and scenarios
Analysis: Alphabet price drivers and scenarios
Alphabet has shifted to being viewed as a broader AI infrastructure play. The question is whether Cloud growth can support a path back to margin recovery while the massive US$185bn infrastructure buildout absorbs capital.
Factors that could move the markets
Sentiment Analysis · Alphabet Inc.
Interactive scenario analysis: $GOOGL
Interactive scenario analysis: $GOOGL
Ironwood efficiency drives upside
Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 16 April 2026 (AEST). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings or results presentations. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.
NVIDIA: the hardware cycle read through
NVIDIA is no longer simply a chip company. It has become what analysts now describe as the central bank of compute, the entity whose product determines how much AI capacity the world can actually deploy.
The upcoming Q1 FY2027 result will test whether the new Vera Rubin R100 GPU architecture, which entered mass production ahead of schedule, is already contributing to revenue, and whether NVIDIA can sustain gross margins above 75% as inference, rather than training, becomes the dominant workload. Inference is more competitive and more price-sensitive than training, so margin resilience here matters.
NVIDIA Corporation
Global Release Countdown (AMC)
Market Intelligence: $NVDA
Analysis: NVIDIA price drivers and scenarios
Analysis: NVIDIA price drivers and scenarios
NVIDIA’s outlook depends on whether Rubin R100 can keep gross margins above 75% as inference becomes a bigger part of demand. Because inference is more price-sensitive than training, margins are the key test.
Factors that could move the markets
Sentiment Analysis · NVIDIA Corp.
Interactive scenario analysis: $NVDA
Interactive scenario analysis: $NVDA
Rubin ramp supports growth
Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 16 April 2026 (AEST). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings or results presentations. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.
Thematic Risks
What could shift the picture
What could shift the picture
Three risks could change the narrative regardless of how the numbers print. Each one is worth understanding before the results land.
If both Microsoft and Alphabet report in line or below expectations while reaffirming enormous spending plans, the market may start pricing the risk that AI monetisation is slower than the spending implies. That is not a stock-specific concern. It would be a broader de-rating event, affecting the valuations of companies across the technology sector.
The FTC investigation into Microsoft, the DOJ case against Alphabet, and emerging EU scrutiny of NVIDIA's CUDA software ecosystem are all active. A material legal development before the earnings calls could overshadow the financial results entirely. Regulatory risk in this sector is not theoretical. It is live and moving.
Microsoft's Maia 200 chip, Alphabet's Ironwood TPU, Amazon's Trainium and Meta's custom accelerators are all reducing how much the large cloud companies depend on NVIDIA hardware. If any of these companies signals a meaningful shift in its GPU procurement plans, that could create uncertainty around NVIDIA's forward order book.
The Bottom Line
The 2026 reality check
The 2026 reality check
Microsoft and Alphabet report on the same evening, 29 April. NVIDIA follows in late May. Together, they offer the clearest read yet on whether the AI infrastructure buildout is generating returns fast enough to justify the extraordinary scale of capital being committed.
$MSFT
AI spend is shifting from cost to competitive advantage. The question is whether margins can follow.
$GOOGL
Vertical integration from chips to search to cloud may prove to be a moat, or an expensive position to defend.
$NVDA
This is the pulse of the AI hardware cycle, and a test of whether Rubin can keep the supercycle alive into 2027.
Taken together, they offer a read on a market that looks more physical, more capital-intensive and, for many traders, more real.
Your next earnings setup starts here
Stay ahead of major beats, misses, and market surprises. Log in to your terminal, open a new account, or explore our dedicated earnings academy.
Need help? Contact our support team
.jpeg)
四月份的美国财报季即将到来，市场提出了更棘手的问题。对于公司来说，讲一个好故事已经不够了。交易者想看看下一个周期的物理方面是否正在转化为实际收入、更稳定的利润率和更明确的指导。
这就是特斯拉、Nextera能源和埃克森美孚本月重要的原因。两者都接近市场目前试图定价的主题：自治、电力需求和石油供应风险。它们是截然不同的企业，但它们共同提供了一个有用的读物，说明当市场想要更切实的东西时，注意力可能会转移到哪里。
2026年，这些信号在高摩擦背景下发生碰撞：
- 人工智能电力需求正在将公用事业、存储和电网容量推向焦点
- 特斯拉需要证明自主权和能源可以支持电动汽车利润率之外的下一个篇章
- 石油供应风险将能源安全推向了话题
为什么这部分市场很重要
这里更广泛的主题很简单。人工智能仍然很重要。增长仍然很重要。但是，本财报季也可能考验该故事背后提供电力、基础设施和燃料的公司。
对于初学者到中级交易者来说，这很重要，因为这些股票可能出于截然不同的原因而波动。特斯拉可以利用利润率和产品叙述进行交易。Nextera可以根据电力需求和资本支出计划进行交易。埃克森可以提高原油、炼油利润率和回购信心。将它们放在一起可以让交易者更清楚地思考市场如何为2026年故事的实体经济方面定价。
IMPORTANT: REPORTING SCHEDULES CAN CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. REPORTING DATES AND RELEASE TIMES ARE FROM COMPANY INVESTOR RELATIONS CALENDARS WHERE MARKED CONFIRMED; OTHERWISE THEY ARE GO MARKETS ESTIMATES. CONSENSUS EPS, REVENUE AND ANALYST-RANGE DATA ARE FROM THIRD-PARTY MARKET CONSENSUS SOURCES, AS OF 14 APRIL 2026 (AEST). COMPANY GUIDANCE, BACKLOG AND OPERATING METRICS ARE FROM THE LATEST COMPANY FILINGS OR RESULTS PRESENTATIONS UNLESS STATED OTHERWISE. FIGURES AND SCHEDULES MAY CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE.
Tesla Inc.
Global Release Countdown (AMC)
Market Intelligence: $TSLA
Analysis: Tesla price drivers and scenarios
Analysis: Tesla price drivers and scenarios
The US$0.16 analyst range shows there is still a lot of uncertainty. The main question is how weaker vehicle deliveries compare with stronger, higher-margin energy storage contributions. A result above US$0.48 would suggest the autonomy and battery story is improving faster than the bear case expects.
Key factors that could move the result
Trade Execution: $TSLA
Earnings reaction framework: Q1 2026
Earnings reaction framework: Q1 2026
Sentiment Analysis · Tesla Inc.
Interactive scenario analysis: $TSLA
Interactive scenario analysis: $TSLA
Strong result, helped by energy and FSD
Sources & Data Methodology Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 14 April 2026 (AEDT). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings, results presentations or investor relations materials unless stated otherwise. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.
From autonomy to electricity
If Tesla is the market’s test of whether physical AI can become a business, NextEra is a test of whether the power buildout behind AI is starting to show up more clearly in utility economics.
That is what makes the shift from Tesla to NextEra interesting. One is about ambition and platform narrative. The other is about power, contracts, infrastructure and return on capital.
NextEra Energy, Inc.
Global Release Countdown (BMO)
Market Intelligence: $NEE
Analysis: NEE price drivers and scenarios
Analysis: NEE price drivers and scenarios
Against the 2026 ‘year of proof’ theme, the key issue is whether upcoming results turn strategic announcements into clearer execution signals. NextEra is a test of whether the power buildout behind AI is starting to show up clearly in utility economics.
Trade Execution: $NEE
Earnings reaction framework: Q1 2026
Earnings reaction framework: Q1 2026
Key signals to watch
Sentiment Analysis · NextEra Energy
Interactive scenario analysis: $NEE
Interactive scenario analysis: $NEE
"Utility Renaissance" validates via execution signals
Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 13 April 2026 (AEST). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings or results presentations. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.
From power to oil
If NextEra reflects the electricity side of the real economy story, Exxon Mobil reflects the fuel side. That matters in a market where supply risk can still reset inflation expectations, shift sector leadership and change how traders think about defensiveness.
Exxon Mobil Corporation
Global Release Countdown (BMO)
Market Intelligence: $XOM
Analysis: XOM price drivers and scenarios
Analysis: XOM price drivers and scenarios
Exxon is the clearest oil-linked test in the market. The key issue is whether stronger oil and gas pricing can outweigh volume disruptions (6% production hit) and massive negative timing effects from Energy Products.
Trade Execution: $XOM
Earnings reaction framework: Q1 2026
Earnings reaction framework: Q1 2026
Key signals to watch
Sentiment Analysis · Exxon Mobil
Interactive scenario analysis: $XOM
Interactive scenario analysis: $XOM
Pricing tailwind more than absorbed the disruption
Sources: Reporting dates from company investor relations (Estimated for April 29, BMO). Consensus EPS and analyst-range data from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers as at 13 April 2026 (AEDT). Scenario analysis reflects evaluateions of internal energy considerations. Figures and schedules are subject to change without notice.
Your next earnings setup starts here
Stay ahead of major beats, misses, and market surprises. Log in to your terminal, open a new account, or explore our dedicated earnings academy.
Need help? Contact our support team
所以问题是：四月份的美国财报季即将到来，市场仍然感觉不正常。正如GO Markets所解释的那样 全球美国收益手册：交易者必备指南，本报告期是在市场关心的问题发生真正转变之后到来的。它不再只是不惜一切代价追求增长。这是关于表面之下的数字在说什么。
而在2026年，这些信号将在高摩擦背景下发生碰撞：
- 地缘政治冲突：中东持续的紧张局势
- 石油供应冲击：布伦特原油突破100美元
- 美联储：央行仍受粘性通货膨胀的困扰
耐久性支点
是的，人工智能仍然是市场的主要故事。它仍然是最受关注的华而不实的引擎。但在此之下，人们对那些看上去能够在条件变得更艰难时表现更好的公司采取了更为平静的举动。
当利率不确定且能源市场面临压力时，摩根大通和主要国防承包商等公司开始占据更大的份量。它们并不能取代人工智能的叙事。它们正在成为交易者解读风险偏好、收益耐久性的方式的一部分，最终，也是市场寻求更稳健的支撑方式的一部分。
摩根大通 (JPMorgan Chase & Co.)
全球發布倒數 (美股開盤前)
Market Intelligence: $JPM
Analysis: JPM price drivers and scenarios
Analysis: JPM price drivers and scenarios
The analyst spread of US$0.68 signals genuine disagreement about how the rate environment is flowing through to margins. A result that beats consensus but lands below the high:end estimate may produce a muted reaction. A print above US$5.70 changes the conversation.
Key swing factors for the result
Trade Execution: $JPM
Earnings reaction framework: Q1 2026
Earnings reaction framework: Q1 2026
Reaction trigger to watch: The market response in the first 30 minutes after the print may indicate which scenario traders are leaning towards. A move above the prior session high on volume may support the bull case. A fade back into the range after an initial pop may point to the base case. A break below the prior session low on volume suggests the bear case is gaining traction.
Sentiment Analysis · JPMorgan Chase
Interactive scenario analysis: $JPM
Interactive scenario analysis: $JPM
The AI offset: quality beat with NII and ROTCE confirmation
从信贷到国防
如果摩根大通让市场尽早了解消费者、信贷质量和商业活动，那么辩方的名字就不一样了。这是重点开始从信贷周期转移到政府支持的需求的时刻。
在仍受地缘政治风险影响的市场中，这很重要。即使整体前景看起来不太确定，长期计划也可以帮助提高收入的可见性。这是该行业稳居观察名单上的原因之一。
Lockheed Martin Corp.
Global Release Countdown (BMO)
Market Intelligence: $LMT
Analysis: LMT price drivers and scenarios
Analysis: LMT price drivers and scenarios
The consensus sits near the bottom of the analyst range. This positioning signals a potential beat-and-raise setup if backlog growth and F-35 delivery timelines confirm execution. A print near the high:end above US$7.10 could drive a multi:session continuation move.
Key swing factors for the result
Trade Execution: $LMT
Earnings reaction framework: Q1 2026
Earnings reaction framework: Q1 2026
Reaction trigger to watch: The market response in the first 30 minutes after the print may indicate which scenario traders are leaning towards. A move above the prior session high on volume may support the bull case. A fade back into the range after an initial pop may point to the base case. A break below the prior session low on volume suggests the bear case is gaining traction.
Sentiment Analysis · Lockheed Martin
Interactive scenario analysis: $LMT
Interactive scenario analysis: $LMT
The defence premium: backlog and FCF confirmation drives continuation
并非所有的辩护名称都一样
洛克希德·马丁公司和诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司可能坐在同一个防御桶里，但市场对它们的解读并不总是相同的。洛克希德与F-35和当前的空战需求关系最为密切。诺斯罗普与B-21 Raider和Sentinel等下一代计划的关系更为密切。
这就是本节与之形成对比的原因。其中一个通常是从当前国防需求的角度来解读的。另一个与更长周期的战略现代化紧密相关。
Northrop Grumman Corp.
Global Release Countdown (BMO)
Market Intelligence: $NOC
Analysis: NOC price drivers and scenarios
Analysis: NOC price drivers and scenarios
The consensus sits near the bottom of the analyst range. This gives traders a quick visual for whether the print is merely in:line or actually strong enough to override the guidance discount that hit the stock after its last update. A result above US$7.20 changes the conversation entirely.
Key swing factors for the result
Trade Execution: $NOC
Earnings reaction framework: Q1 2026
Earnings reaction framework: Q1 2026
Reaction trigger to watch: The market response in the first 30 minutes after the print may indicate which scenario traders are leaning towards. A move above the prior session high on volume may support the bull case. A fade back into the range after an initial pop may point to the base case. A break below the prior session low on volume suggests the bear case is gaining traction.
Sentiment Analysis · Northrop Grumman
Interactive scenario analysis: $NOC
Interactive scenario analysis: $NOC
The stealth premium: B-21 acceleration drives rerating
故事在哪里得到考验
简而言之，冲突和更高的利率可能会支撑这些防御性支撑。但是市场故事很少如此精彩。
估值紧张、利率预期变化或中东局势的突然缓和，都可能迅速改变市场情绪。在文章从信息转向解释之前，这是叙事需要放慢脚步并接受考验的地方。
Your next earnings setup starts here
Stay ahead of major beats, misses, and market surprises. Log in to your terminal, open a new account, or explore our dedicated earnings academy.
Need help? Contact our support team
如果你在过去的一年里一直在关注市场，你会注意到 “不惜一切代价增长” 的时代实际上已经陷入困境。2026年4月的盈利周期是在市场焦点发生结构性调整的时刻到来的。它不再只是损益表了。这是关于他们身后的信号。
随着利率的不确定性挥之不去，地缘政治冲击将石油推高至100美元以上，该剧本已从人工智能炒作转向机构弹性和计算工业化。对于澳大利亚、亚洲和拉丁美洲的交易者来说，这些结果可能会影响全球风险偏好和新兴的安全超级周期。
Important - Dates, Times and Figures
All earnings dates marked as confirmed or estimated should be verified against current company investor relations calendars before you act on them. Reporting schedules can change without notice due to corporate decisions, regulatory requirements or exchange timetable adjustments.
The mechanics: How the timing works across time zones
The US earnings season does not arrive as a smooth drip. It arrives in waves. For non-US traders, the primary challenge is the overnight gap: major results land while you are away from your desk and can move index CFDs before your local market opens. Before market open (BMO) and after market close (AMC) matter just as much as the numbers themselves. The timing changes how quickly markets react, when liquidity is available and whether the first move has already happened before your session begins.
为什么 BMO 和 AMC 很重要
在美国现货市场开盘之前，BMO业绩就会出现，因此价格发现发生在盘前交易中，流动性更弱，走势可能被夸大。AMC业绩在收盘后公布，这意味着第二天早上反应被压缩到一个短暂的盘前窗口。了解您的公司在哪个窗口进行报告与了解其报告内容一样重要。
Institutional Grade Performance
Master the Markets with MetaTrader 5
Trade hundreds of instruments with superior speed and advanced technical analysis. Harness full EA functionality to execute your strategy.
Need to access your terminal? Log in to Client Portal
The key themes for Q1
For this cycle, the market is no longer rewarding AI mentions alone. It is looking for return on investment (ROI) proof. The four thematic snapshots below help explain where attention is likely to sit as results come through. Each theme has its own section with company cards that can be updated each quarter.
Defence against volatility
These companies are often watched as relative defensives during energy shocks and inflation spikes, although they remain exposed to normal share-price risk. When macro uncertainty rises, money has historically rotated toward businesses with contracted revenue, government-linked demand or pricing power that is not dependent on the consumer cycle — but past rotation patterns do not guarantee future performance.
Net interest margin (NIM) under higher for longer rates, and whether AI spending remains cost neutral.
F-35 delivery schedules and the company's ability to absorb tariff related costs on supply chain inputs.
B-21 Raider production progress and the conversion of its reported US$95.7 billion backlog into recognised revenue.
EVs and energy
As parts of tech slow, investors have been rotating toward tangible, capital-intensive businesses. The energy transition and the infrastructure required to support AI data centre power demand have put utilities and energy companies in an unusual position: they are now growth stocks with defensive characteristics — though all remain subject to ordinary equity and sector risk.
The strategic shift from EV margins toward robotaxi and energy storage as the new growth narrative.
Data centre power demand and progress on its reported 30 GW contracted backlog as utilities face new infrastructure pressure.
Permian and Guyana volume growth, and cash flow resilience during the Hormuz supply disruption.
AI infrastructure
This is the engine room of the S&P 500 and the part of the market most tied to whether AI capital expenditure is generating measurable returns. The question the market is now asking is not whether these companies are spending on AI. It is whether the spending is translating into capacity utilisation and revenue that justifies the multiple.
Azure and Cloud capacity constraints against heavy AI capital expenditure. The gap between spending and utilisation is the market's primary concern.
Blackwell GPU demand and gross margin sustainability as the product cycle matures and competition intensifies.
Consumer platforms and devices
This theme tests the K-shaped consumer recovery: higher-income cohorts remain more resilient while lower-income cohorts face continued pressure from elevated borrowing costs and energy prices. Ad revenue and device upgrade cycles are the clearest indicators of where on the K-curve the consumer sits.
AI-driven ad click improvements against Reality Labs spending and retail logistics costs as the profitability test for non-core investment.
iPhone upgrade cycle momentum and the Apple Intelligence rollout in China as the first real-world test of AI-driven hardware demand.
Analysis checklist: how to read each result
Use this structure for every company on your watchlist. A headline beat is common. The bigger market move often comes from how the market translates the details sitting behind the number.
This is the bar for earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. Small beats may already be priced in. The market often sets a whisper number above the published consensus, so a technically positive result can still disappoint.
Identify the single variable analysts are most focused on this cycle: capital expenditure versus margins, inventory turnover, customer growth rate, or contract backlog conversion.
A beat, meet or miss each carries a different market dynamic.
The recency bias problem
The emotional trap many traders fall into is recency bias. Because the Magnificent 7 have led markets for so long, it can feel as though they are still the only trade that matters. That assumption deserves to be tested.
值得一问的是：这种显而易见的交易已经为完美定价了吗？
2026年即将成为证明之年。在过去两年中在人工智能上投入大量资金的公司现在被要求出示回报。市场不再奖励宣布的人工智能投资。它奖励了人工智能驱动的收入业绩的证据。
对于每个结果，一个更好的框架问题是：你是在对标题做出反应，还是在评估公司在物理人工智能供应链中的作用或作为潜在波动对冲工具？这些是截然不同的分析任务，它们往往会做出截然不同的定位决策。
What to watch next
Three time horizons, three distinct signals. Update these each cycle with the most relevant near-term catalyst, the sector rotation to watch, and the longer-horizon dispersion theme.
Watch the 31 March Nike report as a lead indicator for consumer discretionary health. Footwear and apparel demand signals tend to front-run broader retail sentiment.
Focus shifts to the major banks. If loan demand tied to industrial and infrastructure projects remains firm, the earnings cycle may have support beyond the tech sector.
Watch for dispersion to widen. The companies converting heavy capital expenditure into measurable revenue outcomes may separate clearly from those that cannot.
Client & Education Portal
Follow the US Reporting Season
Stay ahead of major beats, misses, and market surprises. Log in to your terminal, open a new account, or explore our dedicated earnings academy.
Need help? Contact our support team
预计收益日期: 2026 年 2 月 25 日星期三（美国，收盘后）/~ 2026 年 2 月 26 日星期四上午 8:00（澳大利亚东部夏令时间）
NVIDIA即将发布的财报预计将围绕数据中心收入增长、人工智能相关需求的可持续性、毛利率轨迹以及2027财年（FY2027）的前瞻性指导。
市场可能会关注资本支出趋势、供应能力和管理层的人工智能基础设施前景。
一些市场参与者也可能将NVIDIA的业绩视为表达更广泛的人工智能相关投资情绪的有用信号，尽管结果仍可能受到公司特定因素和更广泛的市场条件的影响。
重点领域
数据中心（人工智能芯片）
数据中心领域仍然是NVIDIA的主要增长动力。市场可能会监控收入增长率、毛利率和有关人工智能加速器需求的指导。
博彩
NVIDIA 还销售游戏电脑显卡。市场将关注这部分业务是否保持稳定和盈利，尤其是更广泛的消费者和个人电脑周期趋势。
汽车和专业可视化
这些是与人工智能开发、设计软件和自动驾驶相关的较小部门。它们通常不是短期业绩的主要驱动力，但可以关注评论以寻找长期增长和产品势头的迹象。
利润率和成本
市场将评估NVIDIA的盈利能力，尤其是在人工智能相关投资和供应规模持续扩大的情况下。利润率是与收入增长、指导和更广泛的风险情绪一起受到密切关注的一个因素。
上个季度发生了什么
在最新的季度更新中，NVIDIA报告了强劲的同比收入增长，这主要是由数据中心需求带动的。
管理层的评论和随后的报告提到了人工智能加速器需求的持续强劲，并提到了持续的供应规模举措。
最新财报主要亮点
- 收入： 57.0 亿美元
- 每股收益（EPS）： 1.30 美元（摊薄）
- 数据中心收入： 512 亿美元
- 毛利率： 73.4%
- 营业收入： 360 亿美元
分析师对本季度的期望
彭博社的共识估计表明，在即将发布的报告中，收入将持续同比增长，市场重点关注数据中心性能和 FY2027 的前瞻性指导。
彭博共识参考点:
- 每股收益： 大约 1.52 美元
- 收入： 约655亿美元
- FY2027 全年每股收益： 大约 7.66 美元
*截至2026年2月16日观察到的所有上述观点。
分析师普遍预计，与人工智能相关的需求将持续下去，而注意力仍集中在供应动态和任何需求正常化的速度上。
市场隐含的预期
上市期权的定价指示性变动约为 ± 7% 到 ± 8% 围绕财报发布，基于近期的现价（ATM）期权隐含的预期走势估计。隐含波动率约为 年化率为 48%。
这对澳大利亚投资者意味着什么
NVIDIA的收益可能会影响包括纳斯达克100指数在内的美国主要股票指数的短期情绪和波动性，并有可能在发布后溢出到亚洲时段。
它还可能影响人们对澳大利亚证券交易所上市的科技风险敞口公司和在美国大盘股成长板块敞口的ETF的情绪，尽管相关性可能会在重大事件中迅速发生变化。
澳大利亚投资者可能也希望考虑在内 澳元/美元货币走势，这可能会影响离岸股票和交易所买卖基金的当地货币兑换。
重要风险说明
在美国收盘并进入亚洲早盘后，纳斯达克100（NDX）期货和相关的差价合约定价可以立即反映出流动性减弱、利差扩大，以及围绕新信息的更大幅度重新定价。
相对于正常工作时间条件，这样的环境会增加差距风险和执行不确定性。
预计收益日期： 2026 年 2 月 4 日，星期三（美国，收盘后）/~ 2026 年 2 月 5 日星期四上午 8:00（澳大利亚东部夏令时间）
Alphabet的收益提供了对全球数字广告需求、企业云支出和更广泛的科技行业投资趋势的见解。
由于谷歌搜索和YouTube被消费者和企业广泛使用，因此在评估在线活动和企业营销预算以及其他指标时，通常将结果用作一种输入。
重点领域
搜寻
搜索广告仍然是Alphabet最大的收入驱动力。市场可能会关注广告增长率、定价指标（例如每次点击费用）以及零售、旅游和中小型企业等领域的总体广告商需求。
优酷
YouTube为广告和订阅收入做出了贡献。市场通常监控广告势头、参与度趋势和盈利发展，以此作为数字媒体状况和品牌支出的指标。
谷歌云
尽管结果仍不确定，但持续的云盈利能力通常被视为可能影响长期收益预期的因素。预计市场将关注收入增长、企业采用趋势和营业利润率。
其他赌注
自动驾驶和生命科学等举措虽然通常对收入的贡献较小，但市场仍可能将支出水平和进展更新视为资本配置和成本纪律的指标。
成本和利润框架
管理层此前曾表示，与人工智能基础设施（包括数据中心、专用芯片和计算能力）相关的资本支出增加。流量获取成本、人员配备水平和基础设施扩张也是影响盈利能力的关键变量。
上个季度发生了什么
Alphabet的最新季度更新重点介绍了广告趋势、云盈利能力以及支持人工智能计划的资本支出的持续增长。
管理层的评论表明，基础设施支出旨在支持长期竞争力，而市场仍在评估短期利润权衡。
最新财报主要亮点
有关最近一个季度的报告数据和细分市场细节，请参阅Alphabet的最新财报发布材料，包括收入、每股收益（EPS）、服务组合、云运营收入和资本支出评论。
- 收入: 1023.5 亿美元
- EPS: 2.87 美元
- 营业收入: 312.3 亿美元
- 服务收入: 870.5 亿美元
- 云收入： 15.16 亿美元
2025 年第三季度谷歌服务收入和营业收入 | Alphabet 财报
本季度的预期
彭博社的共识估计，与去年同期相比，收入同比（YoY）增长温和，每股收益将增加，鉴于人工智能相关投资，营业利润率将继续受到关注。
彭博共识参考点：
- EPS: 低至中等 2 美元区间
- 收入: 高达800亿美元至900亿美元低点区间
- 资本支出: 预计将保持较高水平
*截至2026年1月31日观察到的所有上述观点。
市场隐含的预期
上市期权暗示在相关的近期到期窗口内，指示性预期波动幅度约为±4％至±6％。变动源于澳大利亚东部夏令时间2026年2月2日上午11点观察到的期权价格。
这些是市场隐含的估计，可能会发生变化。盈利后的实际价格变动可能更大或更小。
这对澳大利亚市场参与者意味着什么
Alphabet的收益可能会影响美国主要股指的短期情绪，尤其是与纳斯达克挂钩的产品，并有可能在发布后溢出到亚洲时段。
重要风险说明
在美国收盘并进入亚洲早盘后，纳斯达克100（NDX）期货和相关的差价合约定价可以立即反映出流动性减弱、利差扩大，以及围绕新信息的更大幅度重新定价。
相对于正常工作时间条件，这样的环境会增加差距风险和执行不确定性。