市場新聞與洞察

XAUUSD Analysis 5 – 9 June 2023 The overall outlook for gold prices is bearish in the short term. As there was a loss of buying momentum after testing the resistance area 2070, forming a Triple Top pattern on the Weekly timeframe, then there was a strong sell momentum, causing the price to fall below the price line. 1960s price line which used to be the old high when viewed from the Daily and Weekly timeframes, but nevertheless, the price is still moving in an uptrend for the medium term as the highs and lows have been established. Up when observed from the Daily time frame.

There are also no lower highs and lower lows, although the triple top pattern on the weekly timeframe suggests that the price of gold may reverse to a downward trend in the medium term. Therefore, the gold price forecast In the short term, the price may retrace to test the 1915 support area, which is where the price is expected to test before rebounding. There is still strong selling momentum from last Friday's NFP (Nonfarm Payrolls) report, giving the price a chance to move further down.

And if the price can stand on the support 1915 without falling further. Price may have a sideways correction before rallying to test the 1960 resistance again on the Daily timeframe. But if the price has a sharp drop with continuous selling momentum, it can break out the 1915 support level further down, the next important support that should be closely monitored and there is a chance that the price will fall Go to test before rebounding back up, that is 1880, which is a support level at the Daily time frame.

GBPUSD Analysis 5 – 9 June 2023 GBPUSD is bullish in the medium term after rallying to test the 1.26660 resistance to successfully form a new high on the daily timeframe before showing strong selling momentum on the Daily and Weekly timeframes. As a result, the price has continued to fall for three weeks in a row. Before breaking through the important price line that the price used to form a Double Top on the daily time frame at 1.24470, moved above the support level of 1.22700, and last week the price had strong buying momentum, resulting in an increase.

Revisiting the 1.24470 price line, which is an important level at the daily timeframe level. Forecasting that price This week the price may continue to rise. There is a high probability that the price will rise to test the resistance area that the price previously created a new high at the daily time frame level of 1.26660 again, as the price continues to move in an uptrend pattern.

Because higher Highs and Lows are made. But if the selling momentum continues to sell continuously and is very strong This will result in the price being able to break out around the 1.24470 price line and go further down to test the next support, 1.22700, which is an important support at the Daily timeframe level. EURUSD Analysis 5 – 9 June 2023 EURUSD is bullish in the medium term after rallying to test the 1.11000 resistance zone, which was the last high on the daily timeframe, but failed to make a new high and the price has strong selling momentum.

It appears clearly when looking at the closing of the sell pressure candlestick on the weekly time frame for the past four weeks. And the previous week closed in a Doji candle, indicating the market's hesitancy to continue falling or bouncing back. forecasting that price This week, the pair may face a short-term sideways trend with a high probability of a correction at the 1.07450 support area before a rebound to test the 1.11000 resistance. Again, as the price continues to move in an uptrend pattern, higher lows have been formed, although the high has yet to rise beyond the 1.11000 price line.

But if the selling momentum continues to sell continuously and is very strong This will result in the price being able to break out at the 1.07450 support level and continue down to test the next support, 1.05250, which is an important support at the daily timeframe level that should be watched.

XAUUSD Analysis 29 May – 02 June 2023 Forecasting the price of gold in the short term, the price may move down to test the 1915 support area, which is the area where the price is expected to bounce back. and if the price can stand without falling further Price may have a sideways correction before rallying to test the 1960 resistance again on the Daily timeframe. But if the price has a sharp drop with continuous selling momentum, it can break out the 1915 support level further down, the next important support that should be closely monitored and there is a chance that the price will be good Rebound, that is 1880, which is the support level at the Daily time frame. However, most investors keep an eye on the Non-Farm Payrolls (Nonfarm Payrolls) report and the unemployment rate report. (Unemployment Rate) on Friday, June 2, this coming.

This will directly affect the direction of gold prices. GBPUSD Analysis 29 May – 02 June 2023 GBPUSD is bearish in the short term after rallying to test the 1.26660 resistance to successfully form a new high on the daily timeframe before showing strong selling momentum on the Daily and Weekly timeframes. As a result, the price continued to fall for three weeks in a row before breaking through the key price that previously formed a double top on the daily timeframe 1.24470, moving above 1.22700 support.

Forecasting that price This week, the price may move slightly further. There is a high probability that the price will drop to test the support area of ​​1.22700 before a correction sideways. To bounce back up to retest the important price line 1.24470 as the price continues to move in an uptrend pattern.

But if the selling momentum continues to sell continuously and is very strong As a result, the price can break out at the support level of 1.22700 and go down further to test the next support, 1.18080, which is an important support level on the Daily time frame. However, most investors keep an eye on the Non-Farm Payrolls (Nonfarm Payrolls) report and the unemployment rate report. (Unemployment Rate) on Friday, June 2, this coming. This will have a direct effect on the GBPUSD price direction.

EURUSD Analysis 29 May – 02 June 2023 EURUSD has a short-term bearish view after rallying to test the 1.11000 resistance zone, which was the last high on the daily timeframe, but failed to make a new high and the price has strong selling momentum. It appears clearly when looking at the closing of the sell pressure candle on the weekly timeframe for the past three weeks. Forecasting that price This week, the pair may face a sideways trend with a high probability of a correction at the 1.07450 support area before a rebound to retest the 1.11000 resistance as the price continues to move in an uptrend pattern.

But if the selling momentum continues to sell continuously and is very strong This will result in the price being able to break out at the 1.07450 support area and go further down to test the next support, 1.05250, which is an important support at the daily timeframe level. However, most investors keep an eye on the Non-Farm Payrolls (Nonfarm Payrolls) report and the unemployment rate report. (Unemployment Rate) on Friday, June 2, this coming. This will have a direct effect on the EURUSD price direction.

XAUUSD Analysis 22 – 26 May 2023 The gold price outlook is generally positive in the medium term. Although the close of last week's sell pressure bar indicates a significant loss of buying momentum, due to the sell-off during the week but the price is still moving above the 1960 support. After the adjustment has come down to test, the adjustment has ejected up.

There is a very high probability that the price will continue to move or sideways above the 1960 support and there is a possibility of further rally to test the 2000 resistance which is a key resistance on the Weekly timeframe level. forecasting the price of gold in the short term, the price may move back down to test the 1960 support and if it manages to hold on without further deflection, there may be a sideways correction before rising to test the resistance. 2000 again in the medium term on the daily timeframe level, but if the price has a sharp decline with continuous selling momentum, it can break out the 1960 support level and continue down to the next important support at Should be closely monitored is 1880, which is a support level on the daily timeframe. GBPUSD Analysis 22 – 26 May 2023 GBPUSD is bearish after rallying to test the 1.26660 resistance to successfully form a new high on the Daily timeframe, before strong selling momentum emerges on the Daily and Weekly timeframes. Currently, the price has dropped to support 1.24470, which is an important level to watch.

Because the former price used to form a Double Top pattern on the daily timeframe level. forecasting that price This week, the price may have sideways at the 1.24470 area before plunging further. There is a high probability that the price will test the support area of ​​1.22700 before a correction. But if the selling momentum continues to sell continuously and is very strong This will result in the price being able to break out at the 1.22700 support area and go further down to test the next support, 1.18080, which is an important support at the Daily timeframe level.

GBPUSD Analysis 22 – 26 May 2023 GBPUSD is bearish after rallying to test the 1.26660 resistance to successfully form a new high on the Daily timeframe, before strong selling momentum emerges on the Daily and Weekly timeframes. Currently, the price has dropped to support 1.24470, which is an important level to watch. Because the former price used to form a Double Top pattern on the daily timeframe level. forecasting that price This week, the price may have sideways at the 1.24470 area before plunging further.

There is a high probability that the price will test the support area of ​​1.22700 before a correction. But if the selling momentum continues to sell continuously and is very strong This will result in the price being able to break out at the 1.22700 support area and go further down to test the next support, 1.18080, which is an important support at the Daily timeframe level.

XAUUSD Analysis 8 – 12 May 2023 The gold price outlook is generally positive in the medium term. Although the close of last week's sell pressure bar indicates a significant loss of buying momentum, due to the sell-off during the week but the price is still moving above the 2000 support level after a rebound to test and then rebound. It is very likely that the price will continue to move or sideways above the 2000 support and there is a chance to rise further to test the 2070 resistance which is a key resistance on the timeframe level.

Weekly and is the price that gold used to do the most in history. Forecasting the price of gold In the short term, the price may move down to test the 2000 support again and if it can hold on without falling further, it may have a sideways correction before rising to test the resistance. 2070 again in the medium term on the daily timeframe level, but if the price moves sharply down with continuous selling momentum, it can break out the 2000 support level and continue down to the next important support at 2070. Should be closely monitored is 1960, which is a support level on the daily timeframe.

GBPUSD Analysis 15 – 19 May 2023 GBPUSD is bearish after rallying to test the 1.26660 resistance to successfully form a new high on the Daily timeframe, before strong selling momentum emerges on the Daily and Weekly timeframes. Currently, the price has dropped to support 1.24470, which is an important level to watch. Because the former price used to form a Double Top pattern on the daily timeframe level. forecasting that price This week, the price may have sideways at the 1.24470 area before plunging further.

There is a high probability that the price will test the support area of ​​1.22700 before a correction. But if the selling momentum continues to sell continuously and is very strong This will result in the price being able to break out at the 1.22700 support area and go further down to test the next support, 1.18080, which is an important support at the Daily timeframe level. EURUSD Analysis 15 – 19 May 2023 EURUSD has a bearish view after rallying to test the 1.11000 resistance zone, which was the last high on the daily timeframe level, but failed to make a new high and strong selling momentum is evident.

Looking at the close of the candlestick, selling pressure on the Weekly time frame last week indicates a strong sell-off in the market. forecasting that price This week the price will continue to decline. There is a high probability that the price will rebound to test the support area of ​​1.07450 before a correction. But if the selling momentum continues to sell continuously and is very strong This will result in the price being able to break out at the 1.07450 support area and go further down to test the next support, 1.05250, which is an important support at the daily timeframe level.

The word Populism is probably the buzzword at the World Economic Forum this year. The headlines this week were heavily dominated by the concerns of the rise of populism around the globe. “Brazil’s Bolsonaro is the Face of Populism at the Davos Forum” “Merkel encourages multilateralism in the face of populism…” “Chrystia Freelans decries the rise of populism…” “Is Davos listening? Populist wind blows over…” “Business leaders concerned about the rise of US nationalism, populism…” This year, three Western Leaders are not present, and the reason behind it is tilted towards the issue of populism.

This is actually a “ Strong Message ” for the financial markets. The United States is not in attendance due to the shutdown related to the funding of the Wall. President Trump is taking a hard line on immigration and trade.

The United Kingdom is trapped with Brexit. Theresa May abstained from the forum as Brexit uncertainties linger. The UK leaving the European Union is the notable example of the rise of populism based on the desire to regain control over immigration and national sovereignty.

France is being rattled by the “yellow vests” protests which initially begun because of the fuel tax hikes and mean well. However, as it lingers through more than two months, there are concerns that it has given rise to populist strategies in French Is Populism a headwind for Economic Growth and the Markets? The IMF recently flagged how policies need to be adjusted to face the slowing global growth amid rising risks and has called for multilateral cooperation to tackle protectionism and trade tensions.

The message echoed the fears of the rise in populism in the markets. The concept of populist parties and economic growth can be complexed as the effects need to be assessed on the short-term and long-term basis. Populist political parties sometimes come with a fiscal spending policy that stimulates the economy in the short-term, similar to the outperformance of the US economy.

The Trump administration has boosted growth, business and consumer confidence and reduced unemployment through various policies such as tax cuts. However, populist parties often come with protectionism measures and anti-immigration policy which is a hindrance for long-term economic growth. Domestic economies are not able to reap the benefits that normally come with globalization which means that trade restrictions and labour immobility can create a stagflationary environment.

The US is the example of how the US economy bolstered during the first two years of Trump’s presidency mostly driven by fiscal spending, but the growth is expecting to slow down due to the gridlock in Washington. Similarly, the spread in populist parties has prompted market angst in the European markets. European shares have been underperforming compared to the global markets.

The % change for a year shows that the fall in major European equities – Euro Stoxx 50, FTSE100, the Dax and the CAC 40 is deeper compared to the US or Australian equity benchmark. Source: Bloomberg The shared currency is also under pressure. A look at the graph below shows that since the beginning of the year, major currencies are in the green against the US dollar compared to the Euro.

A combination of weak data, domestic political challenges and a rise in populism are weighing heavily on the Eurozone outlook. Populism and Emerging Countries The list of headwinds that the Emerging markets have to deal with over the past year is long: US Rising rates and the Fed Trade tensions The rout in oil markets Populist parties Without any doubt, we saw EM crashing last year on the three main points listed above. Populism is another significant point to monitor.

Emerging economies are the ones who benefitted the most from globalization. Trade barriers can have a big impact, and EMs rely heavily on exports to developed countries. Populism is among the most significant risks to the financial markets which are increasing the risk of triggering a crisis.

Australian’s weak inflation report this week has set the tone for the RBA’s Rate Statement next Tuesday. The underlying inflation reading remains well below the RBA’s target 2-3% for the 11th consecutive quarter. There is no doubt that the Australian inflationary outlook remains feeble.

Some cyclical and structural headwinds are preventing wages and other inflationary pressures to climb higher. Even though the economy is on its 27 th year without a recession, the Australian economy is trapped with very high household debt. A subdued wage growth and high household debt are putting a squeeze on consumer spending.

It is hard to see consumer spending continue to stay strong in the upcoming quarters. There are some bright spots such as net exports, public spending and capital expenditure that are relatively solid to stimulate the economy but there are no signs of significant inflationary pressures from leading indicators across categories in the near-term for the RBA to increase interest rate. “Patience is the key here.” Unemployment rate is coming down gradually and will eventually push wages higher at some point. Therefore, even though the CPI figures were disappointing, it is too early to speculate about a rate cut or any changes for that matter.

The RBA was expecting both headline and underlying inflation to undershoot under their target range. We therefore expect the RBA to maintain its usual stance on inflationary outlook and keep interest rate on hold.