市場新聞與洞察

Deutsche Bank Revives The Failure of Lehman Brothers Deutsche Bank’s woes dominated headlines this week. On Sunday, the multinational investment bank announced 18,000 job cuts around the globe by 2022 and shut down its global stock trading business as part of a sweeping overhaul. It was reported that the cuts had been anticipated for weeks.

We watched the staff of the German bank being laid off around the world including, Sydney, New York, and London offices this week. It was difficult to witness the lay-offs of the troubled bank without reviving the moments of Lehman Brothers. Since the 2008 financial crisis, the bank started its downfall over a series of costly scandals, alleged wrongdoing, and years of mismanagement.

The massive restructuring did little to boost investor sentiment. The market is worried that the overhaul is not enough to deliver shareholders’ value in the future. In the face of its large workforce cuts, there are concerns on the revenue stream from the core European retail and corporate banking.

Additionally, in the era of low global interest rates and an-already struggling European banking sector, Deutsche Bank’s restructuring does not inspire a lot of confidence. Just recently, the Chief Executive Officer, Christian Sewing was celebrating its first major win when Deutsche Bank passed the stress test after it repeatedly failed past exams. The bank’s share price has increased since the beginning of June.

However, this week were the bearer of bad news. The bank might not have anticipated the lack of optimism on the revamp plans. The market has doubts over the restructuring and the ability of the German lender to meet its 2022 profitability goal is highly questionable.

Its share price fell by more than 10% from a high of 8.22 last week to a low of 7.28 this week! Source: Bloomberg Terminal (1 Month Chart) The week got worse as Deutsche Bank is being dragged in a wider probe of a 1MDB scandal. The investigation adds to the list of other high-profile government probes.

The restructuring has not been met with optimism by global rating agencies as well. Now is probably not the time to test the buy the dip strategy.

An oil price war and the pandemic struck the crude oil market at a time where the industry was already faced with a simultaneous demand and supply shock. Put simply, crude oil prices were already under pressure due to a flood of supply at a moment of diminishing demand. A Supply Glut which is mainly driven by US shale producers and a Weak Oil Demand Growth driven by the structural shift in the market! 2020 was set to be the confirmation of a new era for climate change.

As we entered a new decade, the extreme weather conditions around the world have forced leaders of many countries to reassess their actions over climate change and transform the global energy system. In the face of stronger climate action, the energy landscape is changing with the rise of renewables and the increased engagement on climate change, but there are still much debates about the pace of the transition and the extent of disruption. The Pandemic As the world grapples with the ongoing pandemic, different forms of lockdowns across the globe have severely impacted key industries of consumers of oil.

Global activities have slowed down on a massive scale with empty roads, grounded aircraft, plunging car sales and disrupted supply chains abruptly sapping oil demand. The extent of the disruptions in the energy market caused by the pandemic might leave a lasting impact on the oil market which may take years to overcome. Overall, it might still be too early to see that the pandemic could be the reason that either accelerate the pace in using renewables or delay that process.

Below $50 The coronavirus outbreak has caused crude oil prices to fall to its lowest level in more than a year and tumbled below a key $50 level. In a desperate attempt to stabilise oil prices, the world’s biggest oil producers have agreed to slash the world’s oil production to lower supply to counter the steep fall in demand. Source: Bloomberg Terminal Oil Demand Outlook While weekly crude oil inventory reports might provide some relief from time to time to the oil market, traders are mostly concerned with the ongoing uncertainty on the demand outlook.

The Oil Market Report October 2020 and the World Energy Outlook 2020 released this week provided some clarity on the energy market. In its October report, the International Energy Administration (IEA) reported that volumes of crude oil held in floating storage fell sharply by 70 mb (2.33 mb/d) to 139.1 mb in September. The IEA also predicted a significant stock draw in the fourth quarter which provided some support to crude oil prices.

However, the World Energy Outlook 2020 report released earlier this week reiterates the struggles of the energy market in the coming years. The organisation identified four main scenarios to analyse key uncertainties ranging from an energy world in lockdown to mapping out and building a sustainable recovery: The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) The COVID-19 pandemic has caused more disruption to the energy sector than any other event in recent history, leaving impacts that will be felt for years to come. In this scenario, COVID-19 is brought under control in 2021 and the global economy returns to pre-crises levels the same year.

The Delayed Recovery Scenario (DRS) In this scenario, the shadow of the pandemic looms large - Global energy demand rebounds to its pre-crisis level in early 2023 in the STEPS, but this is delayed until 2025 in the event of a prolonged pandemic and deeper slump, as in the DRS. In the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), a surge in clean energy policies and investment puts the energy system on track to achieve sustainable energy objectives in full, including the Paris Agreement, energy access and air quality goals. The new Net Zero Emissions by 2050 case (NZE2050) extends the SDS analysis.

A rising number of countries and companies are targeting net-zero emissions, typically by mid-century. Given the forecasts on the demand side, there is also increasing pressure from OPEC members and its allies to balance the supply side and avoiding flooding the oil market with extra supply. Crude oil prices have remained stuck within a range below the $50 mark as oil traders struggled to push prices higher dragged by the dire demand outlook.

The energy sector is among the worst-performing sector in the stock market as investors are also shifting their investment towards green energy. As lockdown eased, traders will likely eye the consumption of oil in emerging and developing countries rather than developed countries which are taking more steps towards climate change. The US election outcome might also be a driver of crude oil prices in the next couple of weeks as it will depend on the stance of the government towards climate change policies.

Critical Hours for Brexit As the clock ticks for Brexit, Brussels and London seem to be working harder than before on their differences for a last-minute Brexit deal. The headlines in the past 48 hours have renewed optimism that the UK and European Union may secure a deal. However, even though the negotiations appear to be moving in the right direction and the related parties are keen to get a deal done, there is still some scepticism on the pace of developments ahead of the EU meeting.

Last- Minute Deal If there are enough concessions to allow for a deal, Prime Minister Boris Johson will have a deal to put through to Parliament in a special sitting on Saturday, the 19 th of October. The circumstances to call for a Saturday meeting are still not clear and are based on how the negotiations unfold. The recent flexibility on both sides is so far paving the way to the UK Prime Minister bringing a deal back from the EU to table in a special meeting on Saturday.

Deal or No Deal The Prime Minister will be forced to ask for a delay - deal or no deal. In the case of a deal this week, it will be a race against time trying to finalise an agreement and arrange for the draft to pass through the votes to exit the European Union on the 31 st of October. But the delay will be mostly to complete the formalities of a deal and will probably not dampen the recent optimism.

In the likelihood, that a deal with the EU is stalled or the deal that the Prime Minister negotiated with the EU is blocked in Parliament, the Prime Minister will be forced to seek for an extension under the Act of Parliament to the Brexit withdrawal data unless he finds a way around the Act. Markets Reactions Brexit hopes have steered risk sentiment in the European markets as the three-year-long Brexit saga seems to be coming to an end. It could be exhaustion that has caused both the EU and UK to be more flexible in allowing Brexit to happen.

European indices rose higher while the FTSE 100 closed slightly in the red due to a resurgent pound. Global equities rallied across the board despite growth forecasts from the IMF. According to the IMF, the global economy is growing at its slowest pace since the financial crisis and would hit only 3% this year.

The UK is expected to grow at 1.2% in 2019 compared to 1.4% last year due to Brexit-related uncertainties. Source: Bloomberg Terminal The British Pound As the UK appears to be on the point of a breakthrough on a Brexit deal, the Pound is soaring and the Sterling has room for more upside movement if Brexit hurdles are cleared. However, in anticipation of more clarity this Wednesday, the GBPUSD pair is in the consolidation phase just below the 1.28 level.

GBPUSD (3 Day-Chart) Source: Bloomberg Terminal We expect the Sterling pairs to remain volatile ahead of the summit! All in all, the path of the Pound in either direction would be sharp and volatile. A deal with the EU backed by parliament could send the pair rallying to 1.40 level while a disruptive no-deal outcome could see the pair plummeting to the lowest level seen in 2016.

XAUUSD Analysis 8 – 12 May 2023 The gold price outlook is positive in the medium term. Although last week's closing of the buying pressure bar would indicate a loss of buying momentum due to the weekly selloff. But the price is still moving above the 2000 support, it is very likely that the price will continue to move above the 2000 level and there is a chance to rise further to test the 2070 resistance which is a key resistance level.

Weekly time frame and the price line that gold used to make the most in history. Forecasting the price of gold In the short term, the price may rise to test the resistance 2070 as the current price has not broken the support 2000 and there is also buying pressure to push the price up. But if there is a downward adjustment, the 2000 support is an important support that should be monitored closely as it is the price that broke out last week.

GBPUSD Analysis 8 – 12 May 2023 The GBPUSD outlook is bullish in the medium term. At present, the price has risen to test and corrected sideways at the key resistance zone where it formed a Double Top pattern on the daily timeframe 1.24470 with strong buying momentum continuing. When looking at the buy candlestick in the Weekly time frame before continuing to rise to the resistance of 1.26660, but not yet and the price still does not show a strong selling candle to be seen clearly.

Indicates the clarity of the uptrend in both short and medium term as the price can finally break out to stand on the resistance 1.24470. Forecasting that price There is a very high probability that the price will move within the cap between the support 1.24470 (where the price breaks up) and the resistance 1.26660, which is the next resistance at the daily time frame level in order to create a new high at Higher, where the key support is 1.24470, which is the support level at the H4 and Daily timeframes, which are expected to pull the price down to test. If the price is unable to stand on the resistance 1.26660 and continue to rise.

EURUSD Analysis 8 – 12 May 2023 EURUSD Price can be viewed both positively and negatively. As EURUSD is currently sideways around 1.09900, which was the previous high on the Weekly and Daily timeframes and is starting to lose buying momentum based on the weekly buy candlestick. Past closes as Doji bars (significantly) indicate market hesitation.

After adjusting up to test the latest High before having selling pressure down during the week. Forecasting that price There may be both an upward and downward direction in the short and medium term, like the Daily time frame, as the loss of buying momentum last week after trying to create a new higher high around the 1. 10900 price line has made the trend. Or the trend of the price is less clear.

If EURUSD manages to sideways and stay on the 1.09900 level without breaking out first, the next target for price to test is resistance 1.11650 in order to create a new high higher than the previous high, but If the pair fails to hold on to the 1.09900 level and then rises to the 1.11650 resistance level, it is possible that it will test the 1.08800 support area.

XAUUSD Analysis 1 – 5 May 2023 The gold price outlook is positive in the medium term. Although last week's closing of the buying pressure bar would indicate a loss of buying momentum due to the weekly selloff. But the price is still moving in a narrow range above the 1960 support or the recent high on the Weekly timeframe. resistance 2000 and can continue to rise to test resistance 2070, which is a key resistance at the weekly time frame level and is the price that gold has ever reached the highest in history.

Forecasting the price of gold in the short term, the price will swing between the 1960 support and the 2000 resistance to either sideways or retrace at that level until the price has a clearer direction. If there is an increase The resistances to watch are 2000 and 2012 respectively, but if there is a decline, the 1976 and 1960 support are the key support that should be monitored closely. GBPUSD Analysis 1 – 5 May 2023 The GBPUSD outlook is bullish in the medium term.

At present, the price has risen to test and corrected sideways at the key resistance zone where it formed a Double Top pattern on the daily timeframe 1.24470 with strong buying momentum continuing. When looking at the buy pressure candlestick in the Weekly timeframe, the price also does not appear to have a sell pressure candle clearly visible. Indicates the clarity of the uptrend in both short and medium term as the price can finally break out to stand on the resistance 1.24470.

Forecasting that price There is a very high probability that the price will move within the cap between the support 1.24470 (where the price has broken out) and the resistance 1.26660, the next resistance at the daily timeframe level, to form a new high. higher the key support levels are 1.24470 and 1.22700, respectively, which are support levels at the H4 and Daily time frames that are expected to pull down to test. If the price is unable to stand on the resistance 1.26660 and continue to rise However, most investors keep an eye on the Nonfarm Payrolls (Nonfarm Payrolls) report and report beyond the unemployment rate. (Unemployment Rate) on Friday, May 5, this coming. This will have a direct effect on the GBPUSD price direction.

EURUSD Analysis 1 – 5 May 2023 EURUSD Price can be viewed both positively and negatively. As EURUSD is currently sideways around 1.09900, which was the previous high on the Weekly and Daily timeframes and is starting to lose buying momentum based on the weekly buy candlestick. The past has been left down in the form of Pin Bar (significantly).

This is because last week's closing price was lower than last week's high. After adjusting up to test the latest High before having selling pressure down during the week. Forecasting that price There can be both up and down directions in the short and medium term like the Daily timeframe, since the loss of buying momentum last week has made the trend or price trend less pronounced.

If the EURUSD can be sideways and can stand on the 1.09900 level without breaking out first. The next target for price to test is the 1.11650 resistance to create a new high higher than the previous high. There is a possibility that the price will set down to test the support area of ​​1.08800.

However, most investors keep an eye on the Nonfarm Payrolls (Nonfarm Payrolls) report and report beyond the unemployment rate. (Unemployment Rate) on Friday, May 5, this coming. This will have a direct effect on the EURUSD price direction.

XAUUSD Analysis 24 – 28 April 2023 The gold price outlook is positive in the medium term. Although the close of last week's sell pressure bar indicates a loss of buying momentum. But the price is still above the 1960 support or the last high of the price in the Weekly time frame, which is very likely that the price will continue to swing or settle down between the 1960 support and the 2000 resistance, which can be adjusted.

It can rise further to test the 2070 resistance, which is a key resistance at the weekly timeframe level and is the highest price that gold has ever reached in history. Predicting the price of gold, the price will swing between the 1960 support and the 2000 resistance to either sideways or consolidate at the above price range. If there is an adjustment to the resistance that is worth watching, 2000 and 2012, respectively, but if there is an adjustment to the 1976 and 1960 support levels, it is the support that should be followed. and after passing through this April Gold price direction will be clearer.

AUDUSD Analysis 24 – 28 April 2023 The AUDUSD is sideways and swings within the 0.67750 resistance and 0.6560 support levels as seen on the H4 timeframe and the Daily timeframe. It is a pin bar that clearly indicates selling momentum. The buying momentum of the price is not yet clearly seen compared to the selling momentum.

Forecasting that price may have a more negative direction. As the price of AUDUSD continues to be in a downtrend in both the short and medium term. Therefore, a correction to continue downwards is very worth watching, especially the support 0.6560 on the H4 timeframe and the Daily timeframe, which is expected to be the next target for the AUDUSD price in the event of a correction down, and in case of a rally, it is expected that the price may rise slightly at the resistance area of ​​0.67750.

GBPUSD Analysis 24 – 28 April 2023 The GBPUSD trend is currently rebounding and correcting sideways above the key resistance at 1.24470 with continued buying momentum as seen from the weekly timeframe buying candlestick. There is still no clear sell candlestick in the Weekly timeframe, indicating the clarity of the uptrend in both the short and medium term. Forecasting that the price will likely go sideways correction above the 1.24470 resistance area before rallying to create a new higher high to test the 1.26660 resistance, the next resistance on the daily timeframe level, where the key support is 1.22700. which is a support level at the H4 time frame, which is expected that the price may fall down to test If the price is unable to stand on the resistance 1.24470 and continue to rise.