市場新聞與洞察

XAUUSD Analysis 10 – 14 April 2023 The gold price outlook is positive in the medium term. As last week's closing of the buying bar was above the 1960 support or the latest high in price on the Weekly timeframe, it indicates continued buying momentum that will allow the price of gold to recover. It can rise further to test the 2070 resistance level, which is a key resistance at the weekly time frame level or the price level that gold has ever hit the most in history.

But even so, the price of gold remains negative in the short term. There may be a fall to adjust the consolidation or sideways around the 1985 and 1976 support, which are important support levels in the H4 and H1 timeframes that are worth watching. because if the price cannot go down deeper than the above two support levels The direction of gold prices is likely to continue to rise. Corresponds to the large timeframe in the medium term where the price is Up Trend.

And in the event that the price of gold cannot continue to rise, but there is a breakout of the 1985 and 1976 support levels, it can come down with continuous selling pressure. Daytime support at the 1960 price level or the latest price high in the Weekly timeframe are the next targets to watch. AUDUSD Analysis 10 – 14 April 2023 AUDNZD price bears a negative view on the short and medium term.

Due to the continuous decline in the Weekly timeframe, the price is likely to bear down and can continue to fall. After the price has corrected sideways on the Daily timeframe, when looking at the H4 timeframe, a sharp swing of the price can be seen, which is a sideways movement between support 1.06730 and resistance 1.07930. Rara then broke out the support 1.06730 down with a sell candlestick with more momentum than a buy candlestick.

Therefore, it can be expected that Price may continue to decline to retest the support 1.04690 or the previous Low on the Weekly timeframe. GBPUSD Analysis 10 – 14 April 2023 The GBPUSD trend is currently rallying to test the 1.24470 resistance with continued buying momentum as seen by the weekly timeframe buying pressure candlestick, although last week's closing price was truncated. Any intestine dumper Still, the price has yet to show a strong sell candle on the Weekly timeframe, indicating a clear uptrend in both the short and medium term.

Forecasting that price, there is a tendency for the price to correct sideways at the 1.24470 resistance area before rising to test the next resistance at 1.26660 on the daily timeframe level, where the key support is 1.22700, which is the time level support. The H4 frame predicts that the price may retrace to test. If the price cannot stand on the resistance of 1.24470 and continue to rise

Major Indices took a breather last week, with US equity markets closing down more than 1% after posting record highs the week prior. In economic news, the incoming US administration announced a $1.9 USD trillion fiscal-stimulus plan that aims to counter the effects of COVID-19 and support markets as recent weak economic figures are indicating they are under some stress. COVID-19 With reported deaths in Norway of patients who were recently administered the Pfizer vaccine, US vaccine distribution falling well short of expectations and new coronavirus strains being detected, investors are concerned that economic lockdowns could be longer than hoped.

Equity Markets US markets are closed on Monday for the MLK holiday. After that, the earnings season will kick off with big names like Intel, IBM, Netflix, Intel, Goldman Sachs and Proctor and Gamble reporting this week. These bellwether companies should give an indication of how the US economy has weathered the COVID storm.

Cryptos With impressive rallies the week before, Major Cryptocurrencies pulled back last week but still remained well bid on any significant drop. A strengthening US dollar and comments from ECB President Lagarde regarding the need to regulate Bitcoin could be headwinds going forward for these assets. FX Markets After declining for 3 months straight the US dollar Index bounced off support and rallied close to 1% for the week.

This meant a decline in USD pairs with AUDUSD finishing near the 0.77 big figure. This US dollar strength also weighed on USD denominated commodities, with both Oil and Gold declining for the week. Key events ahead Monday Chinese GDP (AUDUSD, CHINA50, USDCNH) Thursday Bank of Canada rate statement (USDCAD) Australian Employment change and unemployment rate (AUDUSD, ASX200)bank of Japan Monetary policy statement (USDJPY, JP225) ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference (EURUSD.

Euro Indices) Friday Bank of England Governor Bailey speaks (GBPUSD, UK100) New Zealand CPI q/q (NZDUSD) German Manufacturing and services (EURUSD, DAX30) Tuesday, 19 January 2021 Indicative Index Dividends Dividends are in Points ASX200 WS30 US500 US2000 NDX100 CAC40 STOXX50 0 6.777 0.143 0.022 0 0.829 0.257 ESP35 ITA40 FTSE100 DAX30 HK50 JP225 INDIA50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

World equity markets finished modestly positive for a week sparse of economic news. US markets again hit all time highs on the back of strong corporate earnings, continued optimism in fiscal stimulus and COVID progress as the US infection rate eased to its lowest level since October. Equity Markets US The NASDAQ outperformed with Twitter (TWTR.NAS) continuing the good run of earnings coming from the tech giants in recent weeks.

Disney (DIS.NYSE) surged to all time highs after reporting strong performance in Q1, despite the company’s theme parks in California having been shuttered for the best part of a year. Source: CQG Entering the last week of Q1 corporate reporting we have Walmart (WMT.NYSE) reporting on Thursday, this paired with US retail sales, released on the same day will give a good indication of US consumer demand recovery. AUSTRALIA The Australian Market finished slightly down on a week with no major economic announcements.

This week we have the employment change and unemployment rate released on Thursday. These figures will be of extra importance with rolling back of JobSeeker payments scheduled for March in what some social advocacy groups are calling a “national crisis”. Zip Pay (Z1P.ASX) was one shining light, rallying 25% and continuing the surge higher of recent weeks.

FX Markets The US dollar index finished down 0.5% weakening against all major currencies with the exception of the NZD. Source: Bloomberg AUDUSD The Aussie continued its impressive rallies after the dip preceding the RBA’s surprise announcement of its bond buying QE programme at the start of the month. A weak US dollar and record iron ore and copper prices are driving it back to the important 78c level.

AUDUSD has experienced strong resistance at these levels this year, the employment report on Thursday will be an important Indicator as to whether the Aussie can break through. Source: GO MT4 Commodities – Oil US Crude Oil continued its strong rally breaking the $60 USD a barrel mark, with prices now back in line with pre-pandemic levels. China’s rapid economic recovery from the pandemic has been cited as the single most bullish factor for oil prices at the moment.

China’s January crude oil imports averaged 11.12 million bpd. This was up by more than 18 percent from the December average. Weekly US Crude inventories will be released Friday with the last 3 weeks having much larger draws than expected.

Eyes will be on the figure to see if oil demand is continuing to strengthen. Source: GO MT4 Bitcoin Bitcoin continued its surge upwards to all time highs as news that an investment arm of Morgan Stanley is considering adding Bitcoin to its list of possible trades. This comes on the back of a recent Tesla announcement of investment in the cryptocurrency and could indicate a coming broader uptake of Bitcoin in corporate investment circles.

Source: GO MT4 Tuesday, 16 February 2021 Indicative Index Dividends Dividends are in Points ASX200 WS30 US500 US2000 NDX100 CAC40 STOXX50 11.709 8.488 0.489 0.038 0 0 0 ESP35 ITA40 FTSE100 DAX30 HK50 JP225 INDIA50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Equity markets US markets dipped last night with the Dow finishing down for the first time in 4 sessions. This came as the streak of better-than-expected economic data came to an end with initial jobless claims unexpectedly jumping to a one-month high last week. Retail giant and Dow 30 component Walmart (WMT) also weighed on the index dropping 6.5 per cent after it missed quarterly profit estimates and predicted a low-single digit rise in fiscal 2022 net sales.

Source: Yahoo Finance Whilst US Markets are flat for the week, UK and Asian equity markets have performed well with signs of China's economic recovery continuing lifting the Hang Seng and good news on UK vaccination progress sending the FTSE 100 higher. Source: Bloomberg The ASX200 again hit post COVID highs this week before pulling back slightly. Optimism in the Australian economic recovery was bolstered this week with another drop in the unemployment rate and vaccine rollouts imminent.

Forex markets FX markets were mixed this week, the US dollar strengthened modestly against most major currencies, with the exceptions of CAD, AUD and GBP. Source: Bloomberg Resource linked currencies AUD and CAD performed well as prices for Copper and Iron ore continued to run hot, with increased demand from China and ongoing COVID related supply issues underpinning the price of these resources. Source: marketindex.com.au GBP outperformed this week amid continued optimism over the nation’s vaccine rollout, with the pound touching the highest level versus the euro since March last year.

Source: GO MT4 Commodities Gold Spot gold (XAUUSD) continued its downtrend setting a new low price for 2021 and within touching distance of the lows set in November. With markets risk on as vaccines rollout and positive signs of an global economic recovery the lustre has been taken off the precious metal for now. Source: GO MT4 Oil US crude prices broke above $60 per barrel touching as high as $62, a level not seen since January 2020.

Severe winter storms and rolling blackouts in the oil producing state of Texas have crippled the oil industry, causing an output drop of more than 4 million barrels a day - almost 40% of the nation’s crude production. Monday, 22 February 2021 Indicative Index Dividends Dividends are in Points ASX200 WS30 US500 US2000 NDX100 CAC40 STOXX50 0.821 6.645 0.323 0.011 0 0 0 ESP35 ITA40 FTSE100 DAX30 HK50 JP225 INDIA50 0 0 0 0 0 0 10.131

We had an eventful week on global markets with the inauguration of a new US administration and a dovish stance from the European Central bank fuelling hopes of extended fiscal stimulus in the new year. Equity markets Risk appetite got a boost this week from a push by US authorities for nearly $2 trillion in additional spending and plans to jumpstart a federal response to the COVID pandemic. US equity markets had the best post inauguration performance since the 1980’s driving the S&P 500, Dow Jones and NASDAQ indices to record highs.

The NASDAQ was also helped along by big beats from Netflix and Intel who reported earnings this week. With this lead Australia's share market hit 11-month highs, with help from an improved unemployment rate supporting investor optimism. European markets also performed well after ECB’s decision to reconfirm its very accommodative monetary policy last night.

Source: Twitter COVID With Executive Orders from the new US administration seeking to accelerate the rollout of vaccines and the seeming peak in US COVID cases there was optimism this week from major Wall St analysts that we could be seeing “the beginning of the end of the COVID crisis" in the US. Goldman's top economist Jan Hatzius, writes that "a vaccine-driven reduction in hospitalizations is likely to kick off the growth rebound through relaxed restrictions and some reductions involuntary consumer social distancing." Source: Zerohedge Forex market While record planned US stimulus helped push equities higher it also created a headwind for the US Dollar which continued its downtrend. All major currencies performed strongly against the greenback this week.

Source: Bloomberg Aussie Dollar AUDUSD strengthened this week driven by US dollar weakness and a better than expected unemployment rate of 6.6% indicating continued recovery of the Australian economy from the COVID economic shock. AUD is trading in a tight range and has managed to hold the important 0.77c support level. Gold Spot gold (XAUUSD) had a strong week on the back of US dollar weakness and stimulus hopes, it bounced strongly from the 1820 -1800 support zone making 2 week highs and being up around 2% for the week at time of writing.

Negotiations in the US on the particulars of the proposed stimulus bill and positive or negative news on regarding COVID are expected to play a part in the next few weeks of future price movements. Source: GO MT4 Cryptocurrencies It was a tough week for Cryptos with flag bearing tokens Bitcoin and Ethereum among others sliding dramatically after recent stellar rallies. Bitcoin dropped 10% alone on Thursday and down almost 20% on the week.

The drop seems to be a long overdue correction and sustained profit taking, it wasn’t helped on Thursday by a report in a trade blog suggesting that there had been what’s known as a double purchase, where the same “coin” is used in two separate transactions. This rumour went viral casting doubt on the security of the Bitcoin blockchain. Industry veterans and people familiar with blockchain technology downplayed the notion, but with so many new investors with a poor understanding of blockchain technology the damage was done.

From a chart technician's point of view, Bitcoin broke the lower barrier of the wedge pattern it has been consolidating in and has headed to the important 30000 support level. Source: GO MT4 Monday, 25 January 2021 Indicative Index Dividends Dividends are in Points ASX200 WS30 US500 US2000 NDX100 CAC40 STOXX50 0 0 0 0.012 0 0 0 ESP35 ITA40 FTSE100 DAX30 HK50 JP225 INDIA50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Equity markets US markets dropped sharply overnight as inflation fears returned on the back of Treasury yields hitting their highest levels in more than a year. Investors are concerned the Federal Reserve will allow inflation to accelerate, after Wednesday’s policy meeting where they reaffirmed their commitment to easy money policies. As seen previously the hardest hit stocks were the growth small caps and Tech companies on the Russell and NASDAQ, as traders rotated out of these sectors into traditional value stocks tracked by the Dow Jones index.

The Dow did touch all time highs during the session before fading in the afternoon. Dow Jones down 153 (0.46%) NASDAQ down 409 (3.02%) S&P 500 down 58 (1.48%) Russell 2000 down 69 (2.94%) Source: Yahoo Finance The Australian equity market had a choppy week, mirroring its US counterparts as economic enthusiasm battled with fears of rising interest rates. The ASX 200 dropped yesterday with the sell-off continuing today as much better than forecast employment figures saw market expectations of rising interest rates coming sooner than previously expected.

Source: Yahoo Finance World equity indices are mostly flat for the week as markets see sawed between all time highs and steep declines. Evidence of rotation from Growth and momentum stocks into traditional value stocks in the US is evident from Dow's outperformance of the NASDAQ and S&P 500. The ASX 200 also dropped over the week as rising Aussie and US bond yields plus a strong employment report had investors reassessing predictions of when the RBA would start a tightening cycle on rates.

Source: Bloomberg Forex markets FX markets saw a mostly stronger US dollar against most major currencies. Rising bond yields in the US have mostly driven this move higher - higher interest rates make the US dollar a more attractive investment than its counterparts. Traditional safe haven currencies the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen were the only major currencies to outperform the US dollar this week, on a choppy performance in equity markets.

Source: Bloomberg Commodities Gold Spot gold (XAUUSD) was the other safe haven that rallied against the US dollar, being modestly up for the week at the time of writing. Despite a mostly rising US Dollar, gold ground higher on inflation fears spurred by rising rates in bond yields. Source: GO MT4 Oil US crude prices dropped sharply this week as US crude found stiff resistance around the $67 a barrel price level after a recent strong run up.

US Crude plunged more than 9% in yesterday’s session at one point, on concerns new COVID lockdowns in Europe will sap demand, and whether the recent run up is justified with the current progress of world economic recovery. Source: GO MT4 Bitcoin Bitcoin gapped on the Monday open to set a record price above $60k US per token. This after an extremely volatile week which saw the cryptocurrency ranging from 53k – 60k Whether the cryptocurrency has run out of steam at these levels or is preparing for another push higher remains to be seen.

Source: GO MT4 Monday, 22 March 2021 Indicative Index Dividends Dividends are in Points ASX200 WS30 US500 US2000 NDX100 CAC40 STOXX50 0.081 0 0.01 0.024 0 0.098 0 ESP35 ITA40 FTSE100 DAX30 HK50 JP225 INDIA50 0 1.454 0 0 0 0 1.072