市場新聞與洞察

The Swiss National Bank, (SNB) has surprised the market and raised interest rates by 0.5% to combat inflation. The SNB was one of the last central banks holding firm in its dovish stance, however with growing inflation felt now was the time to intervene and raised rates from -0.75% interest to -0.25%. It was the first interest rate rise since 2007 and followed rate increases from the US Federal Reserve earlier this week.

Pressure had been building on the Swiss after recent data showed a near 14-year high rate of inflation. Similarly, the European Central Bank signalled it will kick off rate hiked in July. SNB Governor, Thomas Jordan flagged the potential for more interest rate hikes outlining that the currency was not as strong as it once was.

This leaves The Bank of Japan as the only developed central bank who not adjusted interest rates. In response to the announcement the USD tumbled 3.1% against the CHF as it saw it largest drop in almost 7 years. The EUR also dropped 1.8% against the CHF which saw it largest since January 2015.

The yields on Swiss 10 year bonds rose 18 basis points and Swiss stocks dropped by 3%. The USDCHF The EURUSD

The Dow Jones closed flat after another volatile day. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 finished 2.04% and 0.74% lower respectively, as tech continued its sell-off and the Nasdaq confirmed its Bear market. The European markets performed a little better as optimism that the worst of Ukraine and Russian conflict may have passed.

The FTSE moved up 0.53% and the DAX 2.21%. As the conflict settles, renewed sentiment may return. Brent crude oil dipped again by 5.5% to USD 106.53 as it continues its pullback from its recent highs.

Iron Ore was also 6.2% lower to $144.90 a tonne from the pressure from China and could impact the Australian market. Gold has continued its pullback from its recent highs falling to $1949. Natural gas prices fell across the world with the prospect of another round of talks between Russia and Ukraine, along with wilder weather conditions.

Cryptocurrency looks set to operate under increased regulations. A last-minute attempt by European lawmakers to potentially create a soft ban on Bitcoin failed overnight. The key amendment that would have banned Proof-of-Work distributed ledger technology that is responsible for a considerable amount of carbon emissions.

The parliamentary committee will now seek a compromise solution that will address the sustainability of crypto asset mining without discriminating against specific technologies by proposing to include them in the EU Taxonomy for Sustainable Finance. This rule book seeks to classify what kind of investments can be deemed to match Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) criteria. Bitcoin has continued to hold its support level around $37,500 – 38,000 and the BTC/USD is up 2.40% at 9.50 pm GMT.

Ethereum continues to consolidate into a tight range with the ETH/USD going 1.75% lower. FOREX The AUD/USD struggled to hold above $0.73 and fell 1.40% to 0.7204%. The USD/EUR continues to consolidate as it reacts to the Ukraine and Russian conflict.

All eyes are still on the Federal Reserve which is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points later this week. The commentary associated with the rates will hopefully give some indication about how hawkish they are and their plans going forward.

US and European equity markets remained volatile as fighting between Russian and Ukraine forces continued and negotiation talks failed to result in any progress. Both parties however have committed to another round of discussions. The VIX, Wall Street’s volatility measure surged 12% to 30 indicating the increased fear investors are feeling from the ongoing situation.

The Dow Jones and the S&P 500 both closed down 0.5% and 0.25% respectively, the Nasdaq finished up 0.4% as tech and growth stocks outperformed. In Europe, the FTSE finished down 0.4% and the DAX 0.7%. Not surprisingly, with SWIFT bans and other banking sanctions levied against Russia, the financial sector was the poorest performer overnight in the USA.

Brent Crude oil has ticked back over to $101.10USD as a consequence of the conflict and is still expected to rise further. An OPEC meeting is scheduled for tomorrow however there is no expectation of a significant change. Gold hasn’t seen much change and is still hovering around $1,908USD.

The price has remained stable after bouncing from its recent highs. The RBA is meeting today at 2.30 pm to discuss interest rates and their outlook of the Australian economy, however, no change is expected as they deal with the current sentiment relating to the Russia and Ukraine crisis. Inflation is still the key concern, though a mild Wage Price Index figure last week has given the RBA some room to continue the mostly dovish tone seen at recent meetings.

Above expected retail figures came out yesterday increasing 1.8% and beating most expectations. The USA federal reserve is also indicating that it may be more cautious in tackling inflation through interest rates although they are still expected to increase rates in March with a 25 bp rate rise fully priced in by the market. On the back of the retail figures and improving risk sentiment, the AUD/USD was up 1.46% from the session lows and could be one to watch for the day.

The EUR/JPY was down 1.3% indicating a move out of the Euro to safe haven currencies on the back of the continuing conflict. In cryptos, Bitcoin was a standout pushing up 11.18% to be trading at 41,933.30USD as of 9.00 pm GMT. This jump in price and increase in volume is likely due to many users in Russia moving to attentive payment as the Ruble continues to dive.

Global indices finished relatively flat compared to recent day's price action on the back of failed peace talks between Russia and Ukraine and the ECB decision to speed up the ceasing of stimulus support. All eyes were on the USA and their CPI figures which came in as expected with a rise of 0.8% for February and the 12-month figure increased by 7.9%. The Federal Reserve is still expected to increase interest rates by 25 basis points next week in a bid to stifle inflation.

The Nasdaq dropped 0.95% and Dow Jones performed a little better only falling 0.34%. The S&P 500 performed similarly registering a 0.43% drop. The European markets were a little weaker with the FTSE finishing the day down 1.27% and the DAX coming off worse with a 2.93% drop.

The European Central Bank met on Thursday to discuss the early easing of its economic stimulus effort to combat inflation. The bank announced its plans to make an early exit from its asset purchasing which surprised some analysts who expected no change. The bank indicated that it is currently more concerned with the rise in inflation than the potential fallout from the conflict.

They did, however, leave room for policy changes should things change. Oil again fell with Brent Crude oil fell to $109.49 a 1.5% drop. Gold found some support near $2000 as it continues attracting investors and traders alike.

Major commodities continue to be trading at elevated levels even with some tapering overnight. Bitcoin had a big fall overnight dropping back below USD 40,000 to $39,285 a 6.37% drop at 10.20 pm GMT. On Wednesday BTC had spiked on the back of an executive order from Joe Biden that would potentially expand the adoption of cryptocurrency assets.

However, the general sentiment between more risk on assets and inflationary fears has sparked the drop back below $40,000. The AUD/USD performed well and has continued its recent rise, moving 0.49%. The move has been on the back of Australia’s healthy commodity industry and its geographical distance from the conflict.

The NZD also rose against the USD holding its recent highs at 68 cents to $1.00. The AUD/EUR had another strong night rising 1.27%. The EUR showed weakness after the ECB’s policy shift and the lack of progression from the Russian and Ukraine peace talks and dropped 0.82% against the USD.

The global markets had a strong night of trading on the back of renewed peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Equity indices were up, whilst commodities took a breather from their recent highs. Reports coming out of Europe indicated that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has cooled off on the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO and is open to discussing Russia’s demand for neutrality.

This may pave the way out of the conflict to which the market reacted positively. The US market had a strong night pulling back some of the previous losses. The Nasdaq closed 3.59% higher and the Dow Jones finished 2.00% higher.

The S&P 500 also closed up 2.57%. In Europe the DAX had a large rise moving up 7.92%. The FTSE also performed well finishing up 3.25%.

Commodities dropped overnight as Oil took a breather with Brent Crude sliding 12% to less than $110 a barrel, its steepest decline in two years. The UAE’s ambassador to the UN outlined plans to increase oil production and has encouraged OPEC to also increase supply. Gold also dipped, falling back below $2000 an ounce.

Benchmark wheat futures were down 6.6% after soaring to a multiyear high the day before. Wheat prices are still up 50% from the start of the year. Russia and Ukraine also issued warnings over the potential disruptions to gas supplies in western Europe with neither side willing to claim responsibility which may impact gas prices going forward.

Bitcoin had a strong day with the BTC/USD climbing 7.93%. Ethereum also had a nice rise with ETH/USD rising by 4.36% on the back of the more positive sentiment and move back to higher risk investments. FOREX Along with commodity prices, the USD was also down against most major currencies.

The EUR performed strongly against the USD rising 1.64%. The GBP/USD also performed well, rising 0.58%. The AUD/USD and the NZD/USD also performed strongly and continue their recent uptrend up 0.73% and 0.55% respectively.

All eyes will be on the CPI figures being announced later today. Some analysts believe that February's inflation has likely accelerated and is far from peaking. With the recent rise in oil and gas prices, these will likely be priced into the figures for March and April.

Some analysts believe that CPI will rise to 0.8% after rising 0.6% the prior month. The Federal Reserve is still expected to hike interest rates 25 basis points later this month.

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