市場新聞與洞察

Energy prices have continued to soar with the US indices struggling again as the West debates placing more sanctions on Russia. The Nasdaq closed 3.62% down overnight and is officially in a Bear market after falling 20% since the November 2021 highs. The Dow Jones finished down 2.37% and has also confirmed a correction as it closed down 10% from the January highs.

The S&P 500 was also down 2.95%. In Europe the FTSE finished flat, recovering most of the morning losses to end the day down 0.40% overall. The DAX also worked back some of its morning losses but still closed the day down 1.98%.

Commodities continue to boom with the threats of an embargo on Russian supplies driving the market sentiment. Oil rose to a 14 year high touching $139 a barrel for Brent Crude. However, the price did fall back to the $130 level as the day wore on.

Natural gas also rocketed up 42% compared to Friday over the concerns of a shortfall if Russia were to cut off its supply to Western Europe. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson outlined that the West may need to increase Oil and Gas production reduce the reliance on Russia and enable sanctions to be implemented. The increase in supply pressure, especially in the short term may see the volatility continue.

Nickel was the largest mover overnight rising an incredible 73%. Nickel miners and commodity plays on the ASX may continue to be relevant as the volatility surrounding commodities continues. Bitcoin is trading relatively flat at the moment with BTC/USD at $38,027 at 10.00 pm GMT.

Ethereum is trading at 1.94% lower at $2500 at 10.00 GMT. FOREX The GBP/USD fell sharply finishing down 1.01% as investors continue moving to safe-haven currencies. The EUR/USD performed marginally better dropping 0.7%.

The NZD and AUD, which had been performing strongly in the prior week also tapered against both the USD and EUR. Gold continued to show strength as it hovers just below the $2000 per ounce level. The impact of the CPI figures that will be out on Friday may further impact gold prices.

NIO Inc. (NIO) reported its first quarter financial results before the market open in the US on Thursday. The Chinese electric vehicle maker reported revenue of $1.563 billion in the first quarter (up by 24.2% year-over-year), topping analyst estimate of $1.561 billion. Loss per share reported at -$0.12 per share, lower than the -$0.15 loss per share expected.

The company delivered a total of 25,768 vehicles in Q1 2022, an 28.5% increase vs. Q1 2021. William Bin Li, founder, chairman and CEO of the EV company commented on NIO’s performance in Q1: ''We set new record-high quarterly deliveries of 25,768 vehicles in the first quarter of 2022, and hit the milestone of exceeding 200,000 vehicle deliveries in May within four years since our first delivery.'' "Despite the volatilities of supply chain and the challenges in vehicle delivery resulting from the recent COVID-19 resurgence, we witnessed robust demand for our complementary products and achieved an all-time high order inflow in May 2022.

On April 29, 2022, the first batch of tooling trial builds of the ET5 rolled off the production line at the new manufacturing plant at NeoPark in Hefei. We expect to start delivery of the ET5 in September 2022. In addition, we will further enhance our product offering by introducing the ES7, a new mid-to-large five-seater SUV based on NIO Technology 2.0 (NT2.0), in June and expect to start its delivery in late August," Li added.

The company expects deliveries of between 23,000 to 25,000 in Q2 and revenue of between $1.473 billion and $1.591 billion. NIO Inc. chart Shares of NIO fell by around 6% during the trading day on Thursday at $18.93 per share despite beating analyst estimates for Q1, mainly due to future outlook for Q2. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 Month +44.35% 3 Month +42% Year-to-date -40.31% 1 Year -55.78% NIO price targets B of A Securities $26 UBS $32 Mizuho $60 Morgan Stanley $34 Barclays $34 Deutsche Bank $70 Goldman Sachs $56 NIO is the 14 th largest automaker in the world with a market cap of $31.54 billion.

You can trade NIO Inc. (NIO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: NIO Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

US and European equity markets remained volatile as fighting between Russian and Ukraine forces continued and negotiation talks failed to result in any progress. Both parties however have committed to another round of discussions. The VIX, Wall Street’s volatility measure surged 12% to 30 indicating the increased fear investors are feeling from the ongoing situation.

The Dow Jones and the S&P 500 both closed down 0.5% and 0.25% respectively, the Nasdaq finished up 0.4% as tech and growth stocks outperformed. In Europe, the FTSE finished down 0.4% and the DAX 0.7%. Not surprisingly, with SWIFT bans and other banking sanctions levied against Russia, the financial sector was the poorest performer overnight in the USA.

Brent Crude oil has ticked back over to $101.10USD as a consequence of the conflict and is still expected to rise further. An OPEC meeting is scheduled for tomorrow however there is no expectation of a significant change. Gold hasn’t seen much change and is still hovering around $1,908USD.

The price has remained stable after bouncing from its recent highs. The RBA is meeting today at 2.30 pm to discuss interest rates and their outlook of the Australian economy, however, no change is expected as they deal with the current sentiment relating to the Russia and Ukraine crisis. Inflation is still the key concern, though a mild Wage Price Index figure last week has given the RBA some room to continue the mostly dovish tone seen at recent meetings.

Above expected retail figures came out yesterday increasing 1.8% and beating most expectations. The USA federal reserve is also indicating that it may be more cautious in tackling inflation through interest rates although they are still expected to increase rates in March with a 25 bp rate rise fully priced in by the market. On the back of the retail figures and improving risk sentiment, the AUD/USD was up 1.46% from the session lows and could be one to watch for the day.

The EUR/JPY was down 1.3% indicating a move out of the Euro to safe haven currencies on the back of the continuing conflict. In cryptos, Bitcoin was a standout pushing up 11.18% to be trading at 41,933.30USD as of 9.00 pm GMT. This jump in price and increase in volume is likely due to many users in Russia moving to attentive payment as the Ruble continues to dive.

The US stock market saw one of its best days in months, as speculation swirled that the 'bottom' may be in. The indices gained their momentum from better-than-expected earnings and a weakening of the USD, with the USDX dropping to $106.58. With more earnings still to come better than expected results may see the S&P500 and markets break out of their current downtrend.

The Nasdaq ended the trading session up 3.38%, the Dow Jones rose 2.43% and the S&P500 moved 2.78% higher. This should lead to a positive start on the ASX with the XJO futures up 83.2 points or 1.25% at 9:01, Australian Eastern Standard time. The commodity markets saw a solid rebound with Gold and Oil both pushing back from recent losses.

Brent is now back over $100.00 a barrel whilst Gold is hovering above $1700. The news in the foreign exchange market was the drop in the USD, which also saw strength coming into the AUD. The AUDUSD was able to test its recent resistance point at $0.6860 and is now testing the $0.6900 level.

The EUR moved similarly to the AUD also moving up against the USD. There is growing sentiment that ECB members could discuss a 25 or 50 basis point hike at their upcoming meeting. Furthermore, the EU has indicated it will soften sanctions on Russia, and Russian gas giant Gazprom will resume its gas provision to the EU on July 21.

Later today, the market can expect updates from the Reserve Bank of Australia as Governor Lowe speaks and UK CPI figures for the year will be announced as well. Cryptocurrencies saw a nice breakout with the Bitcoin pushing above 24,000 USD as the market pushed the money back into risk assets. The cryptocurrency broke out of a month-long consolidation in a show of strength.

Ethereum followed suit rising almost 6%.

US markets continued their gains overnight as the market continued to rally on the back of the prior day’s Federal Reserve news. The Nasdaq finished up 1.33%. The Dow Jones Index closed 1.23% higher and the S&P 500 ended the session 1.23% higher as well.

In Europe, the FTSE performed well finishing up and 1.28%, and the DAX closed at 0.36% lower than the prior day although it did bounce off the lows of the day to finish mostly flat. Commodities Brent and WTI oil both made significant gains, up 10% on the back of the market losing hope that Russia and Ukraine will end the conflict from the most recent talks. Consequently, sanctions will continue driving up the demand for commodities rose again.

Gold saw a smaller move to the upside rising by 0.78% to 1938 USD. The gold price has continued its bounce off the support level at 1893 USD per ounce. Natural gas also had a strong night as it continues to coil and rise to move 3.68% higher.

Cryptocurrencies had a genera lly flat day. BTC/USD dipped 0.53% but continues to hold in a tight range. Ethereum was up 1.35% as it also continues to consolidate.

FOREX The Bank of England raised their interest rates in line with the Federal reserve 25 basis points to a current rate of 0.75% and saw a volatile day of trading. The GBP/USD initially sold down likely because just one member of the panel had voted for a 50-point hike. The pair ended up closing flat for the day after recovering from the initial sell down.

The AUD has continued to perform well against the USD. The AUD/USD was able to confirm the breakout of its channel, rising 1.21%.

Australian lithium company, Liontown Resources, has secured another offtake agreement for its Kathleen Lithium project. The agreement with global car manufacturer Ford, means that it will now be the third offtake partner as part of the foundational financing for the development of the Project. Lithium is key for the batteries in electric vehicles in order to allow the vehicles to store electrical energy.

The agreement specifies that LTR will supply Ford with up to 150,000 dry metric tonnes, (DMT) per annum of spodumene concentrate. For the first year, they will provide 75,000 DMT, 125,000 DMT in year 2, and then 150,000 DMT for the remaining 3 years of the initial term of the agreement. Lisa Drake, Ford Vice President of EV industrialisation stated, “Ford continues working to source more deeply into the battery supply chain to meet our goals of delivering more than 2 million EV’s annually for our customers by 2026.” This makes up a third of the foundational offtakes for the Kathleen Project with Tesla and LG also committing to offtake agreements with the company.

The current Kathleen project will be able to produce approximately 500,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate per annum before expanding to approximately 700,000 tonnes once production starts. The financing of the development will be supported by an agreement in which, Ford will supply $300,000,000 AUD. This combined with $463,000,000 AUD raised by LTR last year should cover the development of the project until production.

The LTR share price was up by 5.4% to $1.12 as of 11.41 EST 29 June 2022 as the market reacted to the news.