市場新聞與洞察
透過專家洞察、新聞與技術分析,助你領先市場,制定交易決策。

三家中央银行同时决定利率,布伦特原油在每桶100美元左右大幅波动,中东战争正在实时改写通胀前景。无论本周发生什么,都可能为2026年剩余时间的市场定下基调。
事实速览
- 这个 澳大利亚储备银行(RBA) 周二宣布其下一次现金利率决定,市场目前认为第二次上调至4.1%的可能性为66%。
- 一些分析师警告说,到年底,伊朗战争可能会将美国的通货膨胀率推迟到3.5%,并将美联储的降息推迟到9月,这使本周的联邦公开市场委员会点阵图成为多年来最受关注的点阵图。
- 伊朗发起官方媒体称其为 “自战争开始以来最激烈的行动”,此后,布伦特原油价格上涨至每桶100美元。
澳洲联储:澳大利亚会再次加息吗?
在2025年下半年通货膨胀率大幅回升之后,澳大利亚央行在2月份的会议上两年来首次将现金利率提高至3.85%。
现在的问题是,在下一季度消费者价格指数公布之前,它是否会再次发生变化,该数据要到4月29日才能公布。
副州长安德鲁·豪瑟在会前承认,决策者面临着一个真正分歧的决定,这个决定是由国内相互矛盾的经济信号和国外日益加剧的不稳定性造成的。
金融市场目前认为再次加息的可能性约为66%,无论周一发生什么情况,5月份的加息几乎是肯定的。
关键日期
- 澳洲联储现金利率决定: 澳大利亚东部夏令时间3月17日星期二下午 2:30
- 布洛克州长新闻发布会: 澳大利亚东部夏令时间3月17日星期二下午 3:30
监视器
- 布洛克可能在5月提及进一步加息
- 澳元/美元立即做出反应。
- 澳大利亚证券交易所银行和房地产投资信托基金。

联邦公开市场委员会:可能持有,所有人都在关注点阵图
联邦公开市场委员会将于3月17日至18日举行会议,政策声明定于美国东部时间3月18日下午2点发布,主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的新闻发布会定于下午2点30分。芝加哥商品交易所联邦观察显示,美联储将利率维持在3.50%至3.75%的可能性为99%。
真正的行动在经济预测摘要(SEP)和点图中。目前的中点显示2026年削减了25个基点。如果转为两次削减,那对风险资产来说是鸽派和利好的。如果转为零降息或在预测中增加加息,市场可能会朝另一个方向做出反应。
使事情进一步复杂化的是,鲍威尔的美联储主席任期将于2026年5月23日届满。凯文·沃什是接替他的主要候选人,他认为他在货币政策上更加鹰派。鲍威尔对这一转变的任何评论都可能独立于利率决定本身推动市场。
关键日期
- 联邦公开市场委员会利率决定 + SEP/DOT 图: 澳大利亚东部夏令时间3月19日星期四凌晨 4:00
- 鲍威尔新闻发布会: 澳大利亚东部夏令时间3月19日星期四凌晨 4:30
监视器
- 鲍威尔关于石油和关税通胀的措辞。
- 2年期美国国债收益率反应。
- 芝加哥商品交易所 FedWatch 会根据9月份减产概率的任何变化重新定价。

日本银行:可能会提前进一步收紧政策
日本央行将于3月18日至19日举行会议,预计将在东京时间周四上午做出决定。目前的政策利率为0.75%(30年来的最高水平),2026年1月的会议以8票对1票维持不变。
上田州长将三月份的会议归类为 “现场会议”,并指出,如果Shunto春季工资谈判得出强于预期的结果,进一步紧缩的时间表可能 “提前”。
这些结果将在本周开始公布,这使它们成为日本央行决定的关键投入。野村预计,2026年申通的工资将增长约5.0%,包括资历,基本薪酬增长约3.4%。如果结果证实了这一轨迹,那么3月份加息的理由就会大大加强。
复杂之处在于全球背景。日本大约90%的能源需求是进口的,而每桶约100美元的石油正在推高进口成本,并有可能增加通货膨胀压力。日本央行在全球石油冲击中加息将是一个异常大胆的举动。
大多数市场参与者仍然倾向于在本次会议上暂停,4月或7月被视为更有可能采取下一步行动的时机。
关键日期
- 日本央行政策利率决定(目前为0.75%): 澳大利亚东部夏令时间3月19日星期四上午
监视器
- Shunto 的工资业绩是 3 月份加息的主要触发因素。
- 4月和7月的上田新闻发布会语言和前瞻性指导。
- 美元/日元的反应。

石油:持续波动
本周早些时候,布伦特原油短暂触及每桶119.50美元,随后下跌17%,至80美元以下,随后因华盛顿发出有关霍尔木兹海峡的喜忧参半的信号而反弹至95美元。
截至周四,由于伊朗对商业航运发动了新的攻击,而国际能源署的储备金未能带来有意义的缓解,布伦特原油价格回升至100美元以上。
在长期冲突对能源基础设施造成损害的情况下,分析师估计,到2026年底,消费者价格指数可能升至3.5%,第二季度汽油价格接近每加仑5美元。
在本周,石油充当宏观元变量。每一个地缘政治头条、停火信号、油轮袭击、储备金释放和特朗普的言论都可能实时影响股票、债券和货币。
监视器
- 任何恢复的霍尔木兹海峡油轮航行。
- 国际能源署紧急储备金发布。
- 特朗普关于伊朗的声明。
- 能源板块股票。


Netflix released its Q4 2021 financial results after the US market close on Thursday. The online streaming service company reported total revenue of $7.709 billion in the quarter, slightly falling short of analyst forecast of $7.71 billion. Earnings per share at $1.33 a share, above analyst estimate of $0.88 a share. ''We achieved several milestones in 2021: we had the biggest TV show of the year (Squid Game), our two biggest film releases of all time (Red Notice and Don’t Look Up) and Netflix was the most Emmy-winning and most nominated TV network and the most Oscar-winning and nominated movie studio of 2021.
Full year revenue of $30 billion grew 19% year over year while operating income of $6.2 billion rose 35% year over year. We finished Q4 with 222m paid memberships (with 8.3m paid net adds in Q4). Even in a world of uncertainty and increasing competition, we’re optimistic about our long-term growth prospects as streaming supplants linear entertainment around the world.
We're continually improving Netflix so that we can please our members, grow our share of leisure time and lead in this transition,'' the company wrote in a letter to shareholders following the latest results. Netflix chart (1Y) Share price of Netlfix traded lower on Thursday, down by 1.48% at $508.25 per share. The stock is down by 12% in the past year.
Netlfix is the 46 th largest company in the world, with a total market cap of $225.13 billion. You can trade Netflix (NFLX) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Netlfix, TradingView, CompaniesMarketCap


It is set to be a busy week over in the US with major companies, including General Electric, Johnson & Johnson, Microsoft, Tesla, Apple and McDonald's set to release their earnings figures for the previous quarter. International Business Machines Co. (IBM) released their latest figures after the closing bell on Monday. The US technology giant reported total revenue of $16.695 billion in Q4, beating analyst forecast of $15.96 billion.
Earnings per share reported at $3.35 per share, also beating Wall Street analyst estimates of $3.39 per share. Arvind Krishna, IBM chairman and CEO commented on the latest results following the announcement: "We increased revenue in the fourth quarter with hybrid cloud adoption driving growth in software and consulting." "Our fourth-quarter results give us confidence in our ability to deliver our objectives of sustained mid-single digit revenue growth and strong free cash flow in 2022," Krishna added. International Business Machines Co. chart (1Y) Shares of IBM little changed on Monday, ending the day down by 0.41%.
The stock is up by 8.64% in the past year at $128.82 per share. IBM is the 123 rd largest company in the world and with a total market cap of $115.46 billion. You can trade International Business Machines Co. (IBM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: International Business Machines Co., TradingView, CompaniesMarketCap


Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) released their previous quarter financial results before the market open on Tuesday. The US telecommunication giant topped Wall Street analyst expectations on both revenue and earnings per share. The company reported total revenue of $34.1 billion vs. $34.056 billion expected.
Earnings per share at $1.31 a share vs. $1.28 a share forecast. "Verizon delivered another strong earnings performance this quarter,” Verizon Chief Financial Officer Matt Ellis said about the latest results. Verizon Chairman and CEO Hans Vestberg commented on the past years results for the company and made predictions for the year ahead: "2021 was a transformational year for Verizon that will serve as a catalyst for us." "We delivered on all of our goals in 2021 and made great progress on our five paths of growth, finishing the year with strong operating and financial momentum. As we move into 2022, we have the necessary assets to realize our strategy that we laid out in 2019.
We are laser focused on executing our 5G strategy and providing value to our customers, shareholders, employees, and society, as 2022 will be the most exciting year yet for Verizon," he added. Verizon Communications Inc. chart (Weekly) Verizon share price little changed during the trading day on Tuesday, down by around 0.31%. The stock is down by around 9.63% in the past year at $52.84 a share.
Verizon Communications Inc. is the 45 th largest company in the world and with a total market cap of $220.99 billion. You can trade Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Verizon Communications Inc., TradingView, GO Markets MT5, CompaniesMarketCap


All major countries’ economies have one thing in common; they are all subject to a central bank. Here in Australia is no different, we have the RBA Reserve Bank of Australia. Their roles are largely the same everywhere: a key role of central banks is to conduct monetary policy to achieve price stability (low and stable inflation) and to help manage economic fluctuations.
Central banks conduct monetary policy by adjusting the supply of money, generally through open market operations. For instance, a central bank may reduce the amount of money by selling government bonds under a “sale and repurchase” agreement, thereby taking in money from commercial banks. The purpose of such open market operations is to steer short-term interest rates, which in turn influence longer-term rates and overall economic activity.
Another key factor is that they have a hand in influencing Interest Rates. This is used to stimulate economies and keep inflation under control (or at least try to do so). For traders, keeping in touch with what our central banks say is hugely important as this can ultimately help you make a profit, or it can turn trades into losses.
This brings me nicely on to perhaps the biggest, or at least one of the most influential roles of the Central Banks: they directly or indirectly have one of the biggest effects on commerce, business and currency fluctuations all over the word. The FED. Keeping an eye on your Economic Calendar, can be beneficial if you are a trader who likes to keep up with the latest reports on the finance of a country, or in this case The FED.
The 26 th January 2022 Federal Reserve meeting might be the single most critical event in determining the future of the economy (directly in the US and indirectly to the rest of the world), here’s a breakdown into why is so important (and maybe why you should care). 2021 was a year of crazy growth, if you bought Stocks, Crypto or Real Estate in 2020, early 2021, you would have personally seen considerable gains compared to recent years. Economic boom? Sounds great!
Unless it goes too far, and the economy overheats. An economy which overheats, is expanding at a rate that is unsustainable in the long term, a red flag that accompanies that is high inflation. It is no secret that the US (and other major economies) has experience high inflation in last few months.
The FED is now faced with a critical decision: increase interest rates or keep them largely the same. Fed Chair Powell is expected to signal to the markets which way the FED is leaning. Two possible outcomes: Do not raise interest rates – Likely the engine keeps running and keeps overheating.
More record highs for the S&P, Stocks, Crypto, Real Estate. Asset prices keep rising… And inflation keeps rising, food becomes more expensive, fuel becomes more expensive, etc. etc. Raise interest rates – Effective way to slow the economy down.
The “eeek” is, it can deepen the current dip being seen in the markets and potential cause a recession. Economists often talk about a soft landing. It means a slow down of the economy without a crash.
A soft landing is easier when inflation is controlled (see below). However, this has usually successfully been done when inflation is under control and is impossible once inflation hits crazy highs – or once the economy has overheated. (See below) In short, if Powell advises that a series of aggressive hikes is coming, a recession becomes likely and expect movements in the markets whether you are trading a USD pair of the S&P. The FED and its policies drive our economies and understanding their roles, its history and their future plans, can help shape your economic future.
Update: The Federal Reserve concluded Wednesday its January monetary policy meeting, indicating that a potential rate hike could come in March. The major stock market averages initially jumped around 2 p.m. ET, when the Fed released its policy statement.
However, stocks gave up those gains and turned lower as Chairman Jerome Powell answered questions from reporters. Christian Ramos Sources: Wikipedia, Kalshi, CNBC, RBA


Tesla Inc. (TSLA) reported its Q4 2021 results after the market close on Wednesday. The world’s largest automaker exceeded analyst expectations on both revenue and earnings per share. The company reported total revenue of $17.719 billion in the fourth quarter vs. $17.132 billion expected.
Earnings per share reported at $2.54 vs. $2.36 per share forecast. Tesla produced 305,840 cars in the fourth quarter and deliveries reach 308,600 vehicles. Last year, Elon Musk’s company delivered a total of 930,422 vehicles. ''2021 was a breakthrough year for Tesla.
There should no longer be doubt about the viability and profitability of electric vehicles.'' ''After a successful 2021, our focus shifts to the future. We aim to increase our production as quickly as we can, not only through ramping production at new factories in Austin and Berlin, but also by maximizing output from our established factories in Fremont and Shanghai. We believe competitiveness in the EV market will be determined by the ability to add capacity across the supply chain and ramp production.'' ''While 2021 was a defining year for our company, we believe we are just at the very early stages of our journey.
Thank you for being part of it,'' Tesla said in a letter to shareholders. Tesla chart (Weekly) Share price of Tesla ended the trading day up by 2.07% on Wednesday at $936.70 a share. The stock is up by 8.48% in the past year.
Tesla is the 6 th largest company in the world and with a total market cap of $941.40 billion. You can trade Tesla Inc. (TSLA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Tesla Inc., TradingView, GO Markets MT5, CompaniesMarketCap


Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) reported its Q4 earnings before the opening bell on Wall Street on Tuesday. Let’s take a closer look at how the pharmaceutical giant performed in the previous quarter. The company reported total revenue of $24.804 billion in Q4 (up by 10.4% from the same period in 2020), below analyst forecast of $25.276 billion.
Earnings per share at $2.13 a share in the previous quarter (up by 14.5%, pretty much in line with analyst forecast of $2.12 a share. Joaquin Duato, Chief Executive Officer commented on the Q4 and 2021 results: ''Our 2021 performance reflects continued strength across all segments of our business. Guided by Our Credo, I am honoured to assume the role of CEO, leading our global teams in continuing our work to deliver life-changing solutions to consumers, patients, and health care providers.'' ''Given our strong results, financial profile, and innovative pipeline we are well positioned for success in 2022 and beyond,'' Duato added.
Johnson & Johnson chart (Monthly) Share price trading higher following the latest results, up by around 2% during the trading day on Tuesday at $166.66 per share. Johnson & Johnson is the 12 th largest company in the world and with a total market cap of $438.19 billion. You can trade Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Johnson & Johnson, TradingView, GO Markets MT5, CompaniesMarketCap
