市場新聞與洞察
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三家中央银行同时决定利率,布伦特原油在每桶100美元左右大幅波动,中东战争正在实时改写通胀前景。无论本周发生什么,都可能为2026年剩余时间的市场定下基调。
事实速览
- 这个 澳大利亚储备银行(RBA) 周二宣布其下一次现金利率决定,市场目前认为第二次上调至4.1%的可能性为66%。
- 一些分析师警告说,到年底,伊朗战争可能会将美国的通货膨胀率推迟到3.5%,并将美联储的降息推迟到9月,这使本周的联邦公开市场委员会点阵图成为多年来最受关注的点阵图。
- 伊朗发起官方媒体称其为 “自战争开始以来最激烈的行动”,此后,布伦特原油价格上涨至每桶100美元。
澳洲联储:澳大利亚会再次加息吗?
在2025年下半年通货膨胀率大幅回升之后,澳大利亚央行在2月份的会议上两年来首次将现金利率提高至3.85%。
现在的问题是,在下一季度消费者价格指数公布之前,它是否会再次发生变化,该数据要到4月29日才能公布。
副州长安德鲁·豪瑟在会前承认,决策者面临着一个真正分歧的决定,这个决定是由国内相互矛盾的经济信号和国外日益加剧的不稳定性造成的。
金融市场目前认为再次加息的可能性约为66%,无论周一发生什么情况,5月份的加息几乎是肯定的。
关键日期
- 澳洲联储现金利率决定: 澳大利亚东部夏令时间3月17日星期二下午 2:30
- 布洛克州长新闻发布会: 澳大利亚东部夏令时间3月17日星期二下午 3:30
监视器
- 布洛克可能在5月提及进一步加息
- 澳元/美元立即做出反应。
- 澳大利亚证券交易所银行和房地产投资信托基金。

联邦公开市场委员会:可能持有,所有人都在关注点阵图
联邦公开市场委员会将于3月17日至18日举行会议,政策声明定于美国东部时间3月18日下午2点发布,主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的新闻发布会定于下午2点30分。芝加哥商品交易所联邦观察显示,美联储将利率维持在3.50%至3.75%的可能性为99%。
真正的行动在经济预测摘要(SEP)和点图中。目前的中点显示2026年削减了25个基点。如果转为两次削减,那对风险资产来说是鸽派和利好的。如果转为零降息或在预测中增加加息,市场可能会朝另一个方向做出反应。
使事情进一步复杂化的是,鲍威尔的美联储主席任期将于2026年5月23日届满。凯文·沃什是接替他的主要候选人,他认为他在货币政策上更加鹰派。鲍威尔对这一转变的任何评论都可能独立于利率决定本身推动市场。
关键日期
- 联邦公开市场委员会利率决定 + SEP/DOT 图: 澳大利亚东部夏令时间3月19日星期四凌晨 4:00
- 鲍威尔新闻发布会: 澳大利亚东部夏令时间3月19日星期四凌晨 4:30
监视器
- 鲍威尔关于石油和关税通胀的措辞。
- 2年期美国国债收益率反应。
- 芝加哥商品交易所 FedWatch 会根据9月份减产概率的任何变化重新定价。

日本银行:可能会提前进一步收紧政策
日本央行将于3月18日至19日举行会议,预计将在东京时间周四上午做出决定。目前的政策利率为0.75%(30年来的最高水平),2026年1月的会议以8票对1票维持不变。
上田州长将三月份的会议归类为 “现场会议”,并指出,如果Shunto春季工资谈判得出强于预期的结果,进一步紧缩的时间表可能 “提前”。
这些结果将在本周开始公布,这使它们成为日本央行决定的关键投入。野村预计,2026年申通的工资将增长约5.0%,包括资历,基本薪酬增长约3.4%。如果结果证实了这一轨迹,那么3月份加息的理由就会大大加强。
复杂之处在于全球背景。日本大约90%的能源需求是进口的,而每桶约100美元的石油正在推高进口成本,并有可能增加通货膨胀压力。日本央行在全球石油冲击中加息将是一个异常大胆的举动。
大多数市场参与者仍然倾向于在本次会议上暂停,4月或7月被视为更有可能采取下一步行动的时机。
关键日期
- 日本央行政策利率决定(目前为0.75%): 澳大利亚东部夏令时间3月19日星期四上午
监视器
- Shunto 的工资业绩是 3 月份加息的主要触发因素。
- 4月和7月的上田新闻发布会语言和前瞻性指导。
- 美元/日元的反应。

石油:持续波动
本周早些时候,布伦特原油短暂触及每桶119.50美元,随后下跌17%,至80美元以下,随后因华盛顿发出有关霍尔木兹海峡的喜忧参半的信号而反弹至95美元。
截至周四,由于伊朗对商业航运发动了新的攻击,而国际能源署的储备金未能带来有意义的缓解,布伦特原油价格回升至100美元以上。
在长期冲突对能源基础设施造成损害的情况下,分析师估计,到2026年底,消费者价格指数可能升至3.5%,第二季度汽油价格接近每加仑5美元。
在本周,石油充当宏观元变量。每一个地缘政治头条、停火信号、油轮袭击、储备金释放和特朗普的言论都可能实时影响股票、债券和货币。
监视器
- 任何恢复的霍尔木兹海峡油轮航行。
- 国际能源署紧急储备金发布。
- 特朗普关于伊朗的声明。
- 能源板块股票。


Intel, the US technology giant reported its Q1 earnings after the closing bell on Thursday. The company reported revenue of $18.57 billion, above analyst forecast of $17.90 billion. Earnings per share were at $1.39, also beating analyst expectations of $1.15 per share.
Intel’s data-centre group revenue fell by over 20% year-over-year to $5.56 billion, below analyst forecast of $5.89 billion. ''Intel delivered strong first-quarter results driven by exceptional demand for our leadership products and outstanding execution by our team. The response to our new IDM 2.0 strategy has been extraordinary, our product roadmap is gaining momentum, and we’re rapidly progressing our plans with a re-invigorated focus on innovation and execution,'' said Pat Gelsinger, Intel CEO. ''This is a pivotal year for Intel. We are setting our strategic foundation and investing to accelerate our trajectory and capitalize on the explosive growth in semiconductors that power our increasingly digital world.'' Despite the earnings beat, the share price of Intel was trading lower in post-market – down by 2.51%.
The stock is up by 25% year-to-date after ending the trading day on Thursday at $62.57 per share. Intel Source: TradingView Intel is the world's largest semiconductor chip maker by revenue. The company is headquartered in California, US and has over 110,000 employees worldwide.
It supplies microprocessors for computer manufacturers such as Dell and HP. You can trade Intel (INTC) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Click here for more information.
Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk.


Netflix reported their Q1 earnings after the closing bell on Tuesday. The online streaming service reported total revenue of $7.16 billion in Q1 beating analyst forecast of $5.77 billion. Earnings per share were reported at $3.75 vs. $2.98 estimate.
With both revenue and earnings per share higher than analysts' expectations, the new paid subscriber additions came in way below analysts' forecast of 6.29 million – at 3.98 million. The latest dip in new additions could be the beginning of a further slowdown in new subscribers as lockdown eases around the world and people return to normality. ''Revenue grew 24% year over year and was in line with our beginning of quarter forecast while operating profit and margin reached all-time highs. We finished Q1’21 with 208m paid memberships, up 14% year over year, but below our guidance forecast of 210m paid memberships.
We believe paid membership growth slowed due to the big Covid-19 pull forward in 2020 and a lighter content slate in the first half of this year, due to Covid-19 production delays. We continue to anticipate a strong second half with the return of new seasons of some of our biggest hits and an exciting film lineup. In the short-term, there is some uncertainty from Covid-19; in the long-term, the rise of streaming to replace linear TV around the world is the clear trend in entertainment,'' Netflix said in a letter to investors following the announcement.
Shares of Netflix was down by around 9% in post-market on Tuesday following the latest numbers, down at $495 per share after ending the trading day a $549.57 per share. Netflix Source: TradingView You can trade Netflix (NFLX) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Click here for more information.
Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk.


Last week marked a significant milestone for NIO when it produced its 100,000 th electric vehicle. The latest development also caught the eye of Tesla CEO Elon Musk, to which he responded: ''Congrats to NIO. That is a tough milestone.'' On Thursday, NIO officially confirmed its partnership with Sinopec – taking a major step forward in the company’s future.
Rumours about a potential partnership between the two companies first emerged back in February, when Sinopec Chairman Zhang Yuzhuo visited NIO’s battery swap station. About Sinopec Sinopec is the largest supplier of refined oil products and petrochemicals as well as the second-largest oil and gas producer in China. It was founded on 25 th February 2000 in Beijing, China and has over 240,000 employees globally.
The company has more than 30,000 gas stations – second highest in the world. The partnership NIO’s statement on the partnership: ''The partnership between Sinopec and NIO is an important milestone for further developing China's smart EV industry, a concrete measure to help achieve peak carbon emissions and achieve carbon neutrality, a key step in developing global, green, and innovative transportation initiatives and innovations.'' Following the announcement, NIO and Sinopec also unveiled the NIO Power Swap Station 2.0 at Sinopec's Chaoying Station in Beijing, China. The share price of NIO has taken a hit in recent months after reaching record highs back in February when it climbed above $60 per share.
It was down by around 5% on Thursday following the announcement, trading at around $34 per share. Worth noting that it was trading at $3.20 per share same time last year, a 995% increase at the current share price. NIO Source: TradingView You can trade NIO (NIO) and many other stocks from the ASX, NYSE, and the NASDAQ with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Click here for more information. Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk.


JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs reported their Q1 earnings before the opening bell on Wednesday – both beating analysts' forecasts. JP Morgan & Co JPMorgan reported a total revenue of $32.3 billion (up by 14.3% year-on-year) in Q1, above analysts' forecast of $30.52 billion. Earnings per share were reported at $4.50 vs. $3.05 estimate.
Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO, commented on Q1 results: ''JPMorgan Chase earned $14.3 billion in net income reflecting strong underlying performance across our businesses, partially driven by a rapidly improving economy. These results include a benefit from credit reserve releases of $5.2 billion that we do not consider core or recurring profits. We believe our credit reserves of $26 billion are appropriate and prudent, all things considered.'' ''With all of the stimulus spending, potential infrastructure spending, continued Quantitative Easing, strong consumer and business balance sheets and euphoria around the potential end of the pandemic, we believe that the economy has the potential to have extremely robust, multi-year growth.
This growth can benefit all Americans, particularly those who suffered the most during this pandemic. If all of the government programs are spent wisely and efficiently, focusing on actual outcomes, the benefits will be more widely shared, economic growth will be more sustainable and future problems, like inflation and too much debt, will be reduced.'' Shares of JPMorgan were down by around 1.19% in pre-market on Wednesday following the latest earnings numbers, trading at around $152.23. The share price is up by around 22% year-to-date.
JPMorgan Chase & Co Source: TradingView Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs also reported strong numbers with revenue of $17.7 billion (up by 102.5% year-on-year) in Q1, way higher than analysts' estimate of $12.6 billion. Earnings per share at $18.60, above the forecast of $10.22 per share. ''We have been working hard alongside our clients in preparation for a world beyond the pandemic and a more stable economic environment,'' Goldman Sachs CEO, David Solomon said in the earnings release. ''Our businesses remain very well positioned to help our clients reposition for the recovery, and that strength is reflected in the record revenues and earnings achieved this quarter.'' Goldman Sachs The share price of Goldman Sachs trading higher after the Q1 results, up by around 4% at $343 per share. The stock is up by 30% year-to-date.
Source: TradingView You can trade JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Click here for more information. Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk.

Market response to any specific economic data release is far from standard even if actual numbers differ greatly from consensus expectations. Rather the market response is based on context of the current economic situation. This week’s non-farm payrolls, being one of the major data points in the month, is a great case in point.
There are many factors and of course the key one for you as an individual trader is your chosen vehicle you are trading (and of course direction i.e. long or short for open positions). The context of today’s impending non-farm payrolls from a market perspective is interest rate expectations going forward. This week the Fed gave the market the expected.25% cut that was already priced into currency, bond and equity market pricing.
The market response however, as this was already priced in, was as a result of the accompanying statement which was not as dovish as perhaps anticipated and a reduction in expectations of a further imminent cut. From an equity market point of view the result, despite the interest rate cut, was to sell off, whereas from the USD perspective this lessening expectation of further rate cuts was bullish. Perhaps this could be viewed as contrary to what the textbooks would suggest is a standard response.
So, onto todays non-farm payrolls (NFP) figure… Logic would suggest that a strong number is good news for the economy, and so should be positive for equities and perhaps bearish for USD. However, as this may be a critical number in the Feds decision making re. interest rate decisions, a strong NFP is likely to have the opposite effect. A weaker number is likely to be perceived as potentially contributory to thinking that another rate cut may be prudent sooner and so despite on the surface being “bad news”, it would not be surprising to see equities stronger and USD weaker.
It remains to be seen of course what the number is and the actual response but is perhaps a lesson in seeing new market information within the potential context of the current economic circumstances and of course incorporate this in your risk assessment and trading decision making.

It has been an eventful week over in the United States this week. Some of the major companies, including Microsoft, Apple, Facebook, and Tesla announced their latest earnings. The Federal Reserve kept their interest rates unchanged at 0.25%.
We also saw the US GDP expand by 4% in Q4 of 2020. However, these were not the most talked-about events this week. Major hedge-funds on Wall Street were left with huge losses after it bet against a struggling American gaming company GameStop by short-selling its shares.
What is short-selling? Short-selling is when an investor speculates that a stock or security will fall in price in the future. The investor borrows the stock or security from a broker and immediately sells it with the hope of buying it back at a lower price.
Gains from short selling are limited as a stock can only go to 0. The losses do not have a cap as there is no limit as to how high a stock’s price may jump. What happened?
The ''short'' bet did not pay off for the big players on Wall Street after amateur traders rallied together on social media sites to take on the hedge-funds and pump the price of gaming retailer GameStop to new levels. The share price of the GameStop has surged by over 1,550% this year alone after trading at $17 at the beginning of January. The stock ended the trading day at the $193 level on Thursday, rising up to the $261 level in post-market hours.
The White House said it was ''monitoring'' the latest price surge in GameStop and other stocks. Hedge-funds and others that bet against GameStop have collectively lost more than $5bn, according to data analytics company S3. Source: TradingView It is an interesting time on Wall Street and it is definitely worth keeping an eye on the future developments moving forward.
