市場新聞與洞察

Post Fed Rate Hike March 15 th 2017 - The United States Federal Reserve (Fed) raised borrowing costs for the third time since the end of the financial crisis. An event so widely predicted that Bloomberg's World Interest Rate Probability was pegged at close to 100%. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to increase the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 0.75-1.00%.

During the announcement, FOMC cited continued progress towards achieving maximum employment and inflation of 2% for raising rates. Jobs gains have been “solid” and household spending continues to grow “moderately.” They are predicting increasing rates a total of three times this year. President Trump has been vehemently against a strong dollar; we may see more of him pressing for a weaker dollar as he believes this will increase exports.

Below are the dates of the remaining FOMC meetings this year. May 3nd -- June 14th -- July 26th -- September 20th -- November 1st -- December 13th EURUSD We have seen a steady decline in the value of the Euro over the last several years, culminating in a 10 year low the first days of 2017. The weeks leading up to the official announcement experienced a small slump.

Once the announcement was made and the outcome was as expected we didn’t see much of an impact. Rather, the Euro strengthened on the results of the closely watched Dutch elections. The Populist Anti-EU Party of Freedom fared less well than polls had predicted.

All eyes are on the French Elections starting next month. Source: GO MarketsMT4 GBPUSD In the weeks leading to the announcement we saw the dollar pricing in the expected outcome of the Fed. Since the announcement increased bets that the Bank of England will start tightening policy as early as next year has seen Sterling slowly rising.

In the coming months, lingering Brexit and political uncertainty across Europe will keep Sterling saved on our Watchlists. Source: GO MarketsMT4 USDJPY The Yen has recovered substantially from the Summer 2016 lows. The weeks leading to the March 15 th announcement we saw the Japanese Yen stumbling to the lowest level since January 20 th.

There has been a gradual recovery since. It will be interesting to see the if the BOJ’s bonds (JGBs) purchase plan will have a lasting impact on the Yen. Source: GO MarketsMT4 USDCAD The Canadian dollar has recovered significantly since the USD/CAD reaching a 13 year high in January 2016.

Pre-announcement we saw a three-month low in Canadian dollar value. The Loonie has experienced a small bounce back since. Looking further, the price action in Oil is expected to play a considerable part for the sixth largest oil exporter.

Source: GO MarketsMT4 S&P500 The S&P500 continues it’s astronomic rise. The buildup to the FOMC meeting saw the index grow to records heights. For how long will the bulls last with continued whispers of an imminent correction or will we see 2500 this year?

Source: GoMarketsMT4

By Deepta Bolaky STOCK MARKETS After a stellar year for the stock markets, investors were entertaining the idea that equities will outperform in 2018 even though a correction above 15% was expected at some point. The U.S equity markets showed impressive strength in 2017 without experiencing the major pullbacks that often accompany rallies. The rally in the stock markets was mostly driven by global economic growth and impressive corporate profits.

However, in February 2018, the CBOE Volatility Index jumped to 37.32 and there was a massive sell-off in the equity markets. There was no fundamental driver behind the sharp fall, but the slide started as investors panicked over a number of issues: S economic growth and rising interest rates Trade policy and protectionism measures Geopolitical risks For the first half of the year, the EMEA region were in a sea of red while the S&P500, Nasdaq Composite and ASX200 stayed in the black backed by technological shares as investors were battling with two main challenges, namely trade uncertainties and interest rates. World Equity - % Change in 6 months (Before the implementation of tariffs) Each headline on trade tariffs were moving the stock markets, driving“panic selling” or the selling associated with the “risk of higher costs related to tariffs”.

During these past couple of months, trade uncertainties and geopolitical risks have been weighing on the overall market sentiment, but the Asian and European stocks took a greater hit. Chinese stocks have emerged as the biggest losers and have even moved into a bear market. As soon as tariffs and counter-tariffs became a reality, weeks of volatility in the stock markets receded.

Investors appear to have come to terms with the situation and risk sentiment has improved. As of writing, we can see that the stock markets are trending in positive territory. World Equity - % Change in 6 months (after the implementation of tariffs) Trade tensions in the market were unpredictable and even though investors are wary, its effects on the equity markets might not be long lasting.

In the third quarter, we may see investors trimming some of their equity exposure if trade tensions escalate. This trimming could also be encouraged by what we called the “summertime” on Wall Street. Stocks with stronger future growth projections like the technology shares will most likely stay in high demand in the second half of the year 2018.

However, performance of US stocks could be capped with the trade retaliatory responses from other countries. Aside from trade-related concerns, strong earnings expectations at the beginning of the third quarter may drive the equity markets higher. Short-term traders should probably stay cautious and watch for warning signs that could cause a sudden change in direction.

Trade tariff-affected sectors such as the automobile and commodities stocks, together with Chinese stocks, will likely stay under pressure as it is difficult for market participants to see an immediate end to the US-Sino trade tariffs. Investors should also keep an eye on the approach adopted by companies during the earnings season. Long-term traders can be more strategic and look for market dips for buying opportunities.

Interest rates will be a key driver to watch. An old stock market saying has resurfaced: “Bull markets do not die of old age, but are killed off by the US Federal Reserve” CURRENCY MARKETS The US dollar gained impressively in the second quarter against G10 currencies. This growth of the greenback can be attributed to the following drivers: The strength of the US economy compared to other developed markets; and A hawkish Fed compared to the other central banks.

Recent job reports were also strong enough for markets to anticipate another potential rate hike in September but without the acceleration in wage growth, a fourth hike looks less likely. The upcoming CPI figures will provide more insights on the path of interest rate. On the technical side, analysts see the strength in the US dollar since mid-April as a reversion.

When RSI approaches 40, it is normally used as “a buy signal” which has helped the greenback to bounce back. This particular situation is similar to the one that had occurred back in July 2014. Both the fundamental and technical sides provided support to the US dollar’s bullish momentum.

A hawkish Fed is calling for a higher dollar but it is important to note that the dollar is navigating through a difficult global environment. The drop in US Consumer Sentiment Index and Economic Optimism in June shows that consumer confidence has taken a hit despite a strong US economy. Unlike the bullish USD, the Euro has been under pressure due to the ongoing political turmoil in Europe that is threatening the unity of the European bloc.

The ECB’s dovish view, US trade tariffs on European cars, and slower growth have undermined the recovery of the EUR. British Pound is also facing the same fate with growing uncertainties around Brexit. Despite strong economic data and a hawkish BoE, the local currency is unable to sustain gains, due to Brexit jitters.

If Theresa May manages to push through the soft Brexit deal, the Pound might recover a semblance of normality. However, now that the implementation of the tariffs has become a reality, we have seen that investors are coming to terms with the situation and the “panic-selling” has scaled down. The wave of optimism is being felt across both the equity and currency markets.

For instance, the performance of the US dollar in the second quarter compared to the start of the third quarter is significantly opposite. Similarly, the Euro has seen a slight improvement and has appreciated against more pairs within the G10 currencies since we stepped into Q3. The British Pound also found some support at the beginning of this quarter compared to the previous one.

Recently, some ECB policy makers have expressed their views that they support an interest rate hike earlier than projected. In the UK, strong data is also supporting an August hike. This might help to bridge the gap between European central banks and the Fed.

Currently, both EUR and GBP pairs are finding short-term buyers as the risks on the political front are undermining their performance. As political tensions recede, we can see those currencies emerging slightly stronger against the US dollar. Investors might want to keep monitoring data to see if there is a pick in the Eurozone area and in the UK to help form buying positions.

From a global perspective, we can see that countries affected by tariffs are seeking unity among themselves against the US. Such retaliatory measures might bring more volatility in the markets in the coming weeks.

Oil on the Rise After reaching its lowest price for 15 years back in January, we have seen the oil prices rising in the recent months since June. The price recently reached a two-year high following a partial closure of the Keystone pipeline connecting Canada-US oilfields. With more upcoming meetings and geopolitical tensions rising in the Middle East, the future of the oil prices will depend on how the future events unfold.

OPEC Meeting The next Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is taking place on 30 th November in its headquarters in Vienna, Austria. It is expected that the pact on cutting output beyond March 2018 expiry will be extended, although Russia – a non-OPEC member and the second largest oil exporter in the world has sent mixed signals about its support for an extension on the cuts. “With the majority of OPEC members endorsing an extension, Russian support is the key risk,” Jon Rigby, head of oil research at UBS, wrote in a note. Last month, President Vladimir Putin indicated that Russia is backing extending the deal to the end of next year, but recent comments by officials and Russian media have created uncertainty since Putin’s comments.

British bank and financial services company Barclays expects a 6 to 9-month extension of an OPEC led deal to limit oil output during the meeting on 30 th November. The bank expects Brent to remain above $60 per barrel in the last quarter of this year and fall to $55 in 2018. “Whether or not the countries extend and the duration of the deal are not the relevant questions in our view. We believe the level of the cut is what really matters, and we assign a low likelihood to this detail being announced on November 30,” analysts at the bank said in a note. “If the meeting concludes as the market expects, prices could experience a short-term selloff, but the technicals and fundamentals will likely remain constructive,” the bank said.

Other concerns for oil prices are the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia and Iran have been involved in aggressive exchanges over the conflict in Yemen with both countries backing different sides. The Gulf region exports around 28 million barrels a day which is almost one third of a global production, therefore its important the relationships in the Middle East does not intensify further.

UKOUSD: Source: GO Markets MT4 USOUSD: Source: GO Markets MT4 See here for more information on Oil Commodity Trading.

Upcoming News » 10:30pm Employment Change - CAD » 10:30pm Trade Balance - CAD » 10:30pm Unemployment Rate - CAD » 10:30pm Average Hourly Earnings - USD » 10:30pm Non-Farm Employment Change - USD » 10:30pm Unemployment Rate - USD The BOE delivered on market expectations overnight with a rate cut to historic lows of.25%. Even though the cut was fully priced in it didn’t help the GBP/USD as it lost over 150 pips post release. Oil continued its rise adding another 70 cents after a very soft Asain session.

European stocks had a very strong session backed by the rate cut from the BOE. The FTSE100 increased by 105.76 points in contrast, US stocks had a quiet night in trade. The S&P500 barely changed up by 0.02%.

RBA statement, there are current concerns over the AUD and China. They’re keeping the current direction for the GDP and CPI outlook. Japan’s real wages rose the most in 6 years but this figure is exaggerated by the effect of falling prices.

The AUDUSD today has been in one way traffic, buyers have taken it past its.7640 resistance level. Local stocks have been flat and the JPY has been in a tug of war battle throughout the day. The JPN225 started strongly but has been struggling to hold it’s open.

AUS200 has been very quiet but is still holding above its short term 5490 support level. The USD has mainly been weaker so far today. Tonight we have average hourly earnings, the non-farm payroll employment change, and unemployment figures coming out at 10:30pm AEST.

The market is looking for 0.2 increase in earnings, 180K increase in the employment change and a slight decrease in unemployment to 4.8%. Any big misses in the employment change will cause USD and equity index volatility. AUDUSD – Another very strong session so far today.

We have seen a break out of the.7640 resistance point that goes back to the 24 th of June. We have one more clear resistance point to be tested at.7670. For the moment the current uptrend looks very strong.

One thing to note, we have had a breakout and divergence is starting to build. No indication a turn is coming but it’s something to keep an eye on. HKG33 – Testing highs closing highs today.

A strong rally today has seen prices hit 22175 closing highs. This area lines up with a previous high set in December 2015. A break above 22285 reconfirms the current trends strength.

A fail at this area could see a retest of the 21580 to 21320 area. XAUUSD – Buyers have returned after yesterday’s short-term weakness. Yesterday’s reversal was a key in buyer commitment in the short term, but I still see 1367 – 1374 as levels that need to be closed above. 1374.88 has proven to be a turning point and holds significance.

Step one in the short term is a move over the current short term resistance seen at 1363.55. Good Trading. Please note that trading oil CFDs, Forex or Derivatives carries a high level of risk, including the risk of losing substantially more than your initial investment.

Also, you do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets. You should only trade if you can afford to carry these risks. Our offer is not designed to alter or modify any individual’s risk preference or encourage individuals to trade in a manner inconsistent with their own trading strategies.

All times are in AEST. Written by Joseph Jeffriess, GO Markets Market Strategist

Nifty 50 Go Markets are proud to introduce Nifty 50 (India 50 on GO MT4). The Nifty index is listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) in India and acts as a benchmark for the Indian equity markets. It is a capitalization weighted index which covers 13 sectors of the Indian economy in one portfolio.

India is the fastest growing economy of the G20 since 2014. The first quarter of 2017 saw an increase of 6.10%. This is double and even triple compared to Australia or United States.

India contains a mind whopping 1.311 billion people. They’re on track to surpass China in the next 5 years to become the most populous country in the world. Unlike China, India’s population will experience growth for decades.

The UN projects 1.5 billion in 2030 and 1.7 billion by 2050. An overlooked aspect of increasing population is what this means in terms of work force. An average Indian is 29 years old, prime working age.

Compare this to an average American or Chinese aged 37, or European at 42 and you can start to understand the long-term prospects that India offers. India in the recent past was a place with unimaginable poverty. In 1994 almost half of the population lived below the international poverty line, which is having an income less than $1.25.

Today that number has been reduced to 23%. With more people lifted out of poverty, consumer spending has skyrocketed from 549 billion in 2006 to 1.06 trillion in 2011. Already by 2025, India is predicted to be one of the largest consumer markets.

As you can see in the graph below the middle class will keep rising. With the Nifty 50, you will be investing in a diverse swatch of the Indian market with the push of a button. The index has been performing relatively well for the last couple of years with a few falls during the Brexit referendum, US election and the demonetization move by the government.

Source: Investing.com Technical analysts have forecasted a bullish trend for the Nifty 50 in 2017. With the spot rate crossing over the moving average indicated by the red line, the Nifty is trending upwards indicating a buying opportunity. More than 70 % of the stocks in the Index has a bullish trend making it worth to have the Nifty on your watch list. ( https://www.moneyworks4me.com/comp-peer/index/index/order/netsales/sort/desc/fid//type//seid//indexid/123/marketcapid//industryid//pagelimit/51 ) Source: GO Markets MT4 A few months ago, the market participants were taken by surprise with a rising Rupee.

It has rocketed against the Dollar with more that 6 % increase. Foreign investors are seizing the opportunity as they are gaining a capital appreciation and an INR appreciation at the same time. With a stronger Rupee, the market is a bull phase. “Growth is high, inflation is under control...by and large it is a positive indicator for the rest of the world.

Inflows from foreign investors have accelerated and Indian stock market is doing very well. This shows confidence in India's economy,” Jalan told BloombergQuint over the phone (Source: Bloomberg). Market participants and analysts are having mixed feelings about the strength of the Rupee.

Whilst it is good for the stock market, an appreciation of the Rupee can hurt exporters and the IT sector mainly. Most of the biggest IT companies in India receive revenue in foreign currencies and with the American clampdown on visas, it is another concern to be dealt with. As a result, the RBI unusual reluctance to intervene is deemed to be good for the stock market.

Would the rise of the Rupee in 2006-2008 whereby stock growth was substantial repeats itself? It will certainly be worth keeping an eye on the Nifty 50 over the next couple of weeks. *The interest rates and dividend adjustments on the Nifty 50 will be similar to GO Markets’ other indices. Overnight interest rates for the NIFTY50 are charged based on 1 month Mumbai Inter-Bank Offer Rate (MIBOR) plus a GO Markets fee of 2.5% per annum.

Dividend adjustments will be made from time to time when constituent stocks go ex-dividend and will result into a cash debit/credit. News about dividend adjustments will be published on GO Markets website under GO Market Daily News. By: Deepta Bolaky & Sam Hertz GO Markets

Most political scientists believe that all problems in the world are related to politics, and most economists believe that all problems are rooted in economics. However, what’s happening in Turkey now seems to be a combination of both as I'll explain. Firstly, investors have always regarded Turkey as one of the Emerging Markets with good economic growth.

We can see from the statistics that the GDP has remained an average 7% to 8% growth in the past ten years, and it even exceeded 10% in 2015. It looks pretty, right? But this is just nominal GDP.

From Economics 101 we know that we should divide nominal GDP by inflation rate to get a real GDP figure. Here is the inflation rate of Turkey: It looks bad. In July 2018 this number soared to 15.8%, which begs the question: what caused such high inflation?

Let me give you the overall picture, and then we can discuss the detail. Firstly, the high inflation is boosted by food prices and household goods such as furniture. Secondly, Turkey relies heavily on importing foods and merchandises from foreign countries, which has created a consistently negative trade balance since the 1990's.

A constant trade deficit means you have to borrow debt to satisfy the consumption of that imported good. See how Turkey’s Government debt accumulated in the past decade: Today only one country, the US, appears to escape from this natural law, by borrowing infinite new debts to cover its old debts and prolong repaying these obligations until...well... the end of the world. On the surface, it would seem all other countries need to obey this rule and repay their debts, unlike the US.

Thus, when a country’s debt is accumulating to a relatively high number (we often use Debt to GDP ratios to monitor), this country’s economy become vulnerable and potentially easier to be attacked by other financial powers. You could argue that this is an unlevel playing field in some respects and the US could well be using its ability to take advantage of this situations as they arise. A perfect example of this was George Soros who famously attacked the currency of southeast Asia Countries in 1997.

Note the foreign debt-to-GDP ratios rose from 100% to 167% in the four economies within the Southeast Asia region during 1993–96. If Turkey can somehow avoid getting involved in any significant conflicts of the world and focus on developing its economy, this whole debt issue might sort itself out over time. But unfortunately, given Turkey’s geographic location, it appears destined to be pulled into most conflicts simply by proximity.

We all know how vital areas such as Istanbul and the Turkish Straits are throughout history. Internally, Turkey has a Kurdish ethnic issue and a high household debt issue; externally it has the downing of a warplane issue with Russia, and also an Armenian genocide conflict with Germany. The list goes on.

In short, this patch of land is no stranger to dealing with massive problems. Ultimately this latest crisis comes down to one thing. Does Turkey compromise with America’s arrogant request, or make a stand against Washington's tactics and attempt to go their own way?

That is the dilemma that President Erdogan is currently facing. Lanson Chen GO Markets Analyst This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions.

Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: TradeEconomics.com