市場新聞與洞察

After eight long years of crisis whereby Greece endured stringent budget austerity programs, the country’s bailout will finally come to an end. Greece will therefore have to finance itself by borrowing on international bond markets. Before the bailout Greece was battling massive debt, loss of investment and huge unemployment.

Nearly €300bn were provided in “emergency loans” in three consecutive bailout packages. A long period of austerity helped Greece to avoid Grexit and started to grow again. Even though the exit is a big positive “milestone”, Greece is going to remain under enhanced surveillance given the unpopular amount of the bailout.

Government Gross Debt as a % of GDP Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook There are hopes that Greece might be a “success story” just like Portugal, Spain, Ireland, and Cyprus but the debt problems in Europe are far from solved. A huge debt in Greece and Italy will remain the lurking financial threat to Europe. Net ECB Lending (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain) Source: Bloomberg Terminal Aside from debt problems, the European Union is also facing other key challenges: Anti-austerity Government in Italy The debt problem in Italy has now turned into a political one.

The rise in anti-austerity government is a political crisis that calls into question the survival and stability of the European Union and its shared currency. It shows that the Eurozone problems had not be laid to rest. Brexit Brexit had elevated fears that other countries might follow the same step which is a crucial threat to the bloc.

The recent elections within Europe had revealed a rise in European populist parties. This created a situation that feeds fears that all is not well in the Euro. Trade Tensions The EU’s divided union prevents the EU to act in unison to fight the US on trade-related matters.

A wobbly European market due to the current trade risks coupled with geopolitical risks are constant threats for the common currency as European members with a fragile economy will suffer. Investors are indecisive on whether to return which might explain Europe eagerness to paint Greece as a “comeback story”. Greece’s bailout coming to an end is good but it still has a long way to go.

Debt problems in Europe remain a big threat and the political situation in Italy is an even bigger issue than Brexit.

On GFC’s 10-year anniversary, one cannot help but wonder about the current dispersion in the financial markets. Developed Markets (DM) equities are now divided between US and non-US, with the US outperforming every other major market. S&P is hovering around its all-time highs whereas DM are still well below their 2018 highs.

S&P 500 (White Line) Vs DM (Orange Line) In the Emerging Markets (EM) space, a problem that began with a select few countries managed to end the golden performance of 2016-17, creating an emerging market rout. Based on MSCI EM index, emerging markets were down by almost 21.5% from February highs to the mid-lows in September. MSCI EM Index In line with EM equities, the EM currencies have seen some significant moves.

Argentine Peso, Turkish Lira and Brazilian Real are all down by 49.97%, 39.62% and 18.29% respectively against the greenback (year-to-date) at the time this report was prepared. EM Worst Performers Commodities have been interesting too. Whilst a higher USD pushed commodities down in general, oil has remained relatively strong and is now trading close to a 3-year high.

Thompson Reutters Core Commodity Index (White line) Vs WTI Oil (Orange Line) Given the above mix, in this article we take a look at the levels and catalysts traders need to watch. US Equities: In the past few weeks, prominent market timing indicators called for a correction in the US markets. The first was issued in late August by Tom Demark, whose indicators and analysis are closely watched by the institutional traders, and the second, which was released a couple of weeks ago by Jason Goepfert from Sentiment Trader, in which he drew attention to the emergence of the so-called Hinderberg Omen pattern.

This pattern gauges indecision in the markets and is designed to predict a market correction within 40 days. The yellow dots in the chart below represents the occasions when this indicator has issued warnings. Hinderberg Omen on NY Composite Index For S&P to decline, there needs to be a catalyst.

In our view, this catalyst will likely have something to do with Trump and his trade tariff war. JP Morgan has recently undertaken an interesting exercise - they used the latest text mining algorithm to scan through 7000 earning transcripts and conference calls. The exercise concluded that companies are now more worried about the trade war and its impact on their bottom-line rather than that the usual suspects: tax cuts, macro headwinds., etc.

Therefore, we would be closely following the US-China trade war developments now that China has announced an additional set of tariffs on $60b worth of US imports. For the time being, the trade war doesn’t seem to have had much impact on S&P 500. However, since there is a confluence of technical warnings (both fundamental and technical), we would be looking at the 2860 area in the S&P daily chart (below).

Should this level be broken in the next 2-4 weeks, prospects for a correction can increase significantly. S&P 500 An interesting point in the chart above is the abnormally high volume on last Friday’s close, which happened to be a down day. Volume spikes at the peak of a trend are traditionally signs of inflection points.

Emerging Markets: Still a Concern Given that EM economies are often interdependent and share the same attributes, analysts did not see the EM developments in isolation and were quick to talk about a contagion risk when Turkey followed Argentina only three months later. Today, a problem that began with a select few countries has turned into an overall EM issue. The combination of a higher USD (driven by higher rates in the US) and issues such as the trade war, sanctions and domestic matters in EMs have created a vicious cycle.

On one hand, risk-averse investors are selling their emerging market assets due to economic downgrades, slower growth and trade war risks. On the other hand, by repatriating their investments back to the funding currencies (mainly USD), they force emerging market currencies to go lower, which in turn would intrigue more EM assets sales as investors fear their EM asset returns to be diminished by currency depreciation. Emerging Market Index (Orange Line) Vs US dollar index White Line) EM Short Term Rebound: Emerging markets, along with most risk assets, have recovered somewhat over the past couple of weeks.

However, we believe this recovery is mainly due to profit taking as opposed to a change of fundamentals. For the trend to reverse, we want to see the EM index to stabilise above 1100. MSCI EM Emerging Markets and Risk currencies The reason FX traders need to be aware of the EM developments is that the EM rout has a direct negative impact on high beta DM currencies such AUD and NZD.

This is shown in the chart below, where the orange line is the EM index, the blue line is AUDUSD and the red line is NZDUSD. Emerging Market index (Orange and AUDUSD (Yellow) and NZDUSD (Blue) Therefore, as long as the EM rout exists, one should expect further depreciation in the price of AUD and NZD against the USD, and other safe-haven currencies such as JPY and CHF. NZDCHF in particular looks very interesting, with a clear medium-term downward trend.

NZDCHF Commodities: While commodities in general will be heavily affected by USD, oil may remain the exception. Many analysts previously believed that cutting Iran out of the production line (as Trump’s deadline is approaching) would only have a minimal impact on the markets – this is because Iran’s relative oil production was deemed to be “just a drop in the ocean”, with Saudi Arabia and other oil-rich countries promising to pick up the shortfall immediately. However, we’ve now seen that these analyst estimations were only good on paper, where what actually is happening is far from theory.

The story went like this: Saudi Arabia announced to the world back in April that they could increase their output to 12.5 million barrels a day to fill in Iran’s gap. The reality is different: Saudi Arabia is presently only producing 10 million barrels a day. To get to the 12.5 million barrels mark, they’ll need to do a lot more drilling, and sooner rather than later.

Elsewhere in Russia, production has gone up by 250,000 barrels a day, but this won’t be enough to fill in the 2 million barrels a day gap which would be created when Trump’s sanctions on Iran becomes fully functional. Production in other OPEC countries hasn’t yet increased much either. Therefore, purely from a basic supply-demand point of view, risks seem to be on the upside rather than the downside.

From the technical point of view, oil is now in a strong and healthy bullish channel, which if it remains intact (a likely scenario), an $80 WTI won't be out of sight. WTI Crude

Creating New Monthly Highs Yesterday gold reached a three-month high of $1,239.68 which, as we head into the final quarter of 2018, is once again stirring up price speculation and talk of a change in directional bias. While the fundamental aspects appear to be related to hiccups in global stock markets, we'll focus on the technicals for clues as to how these moves might pan out in the medium to long-term. Before we examine charts on the daily timeframes, I want to highlight something interesting on the hourly which is unfolding at the time of writing.

Looking at the chart below, notice that price action is finding short-term support around the current weekly pivot around the 1225.00 level. You can also see this predominantly sideways pattern which we will discuss further, prompting many analysts to suggest this price region as a sticking point for the metal. XAUUSD Hourly - Candlestick Chart On to the daily chart below, one thing that I am looking for here is some validation for a shift towards a more bullish sentiment, and even from a quick glance, evidence for this scenario is thin on the ground and limited at best.

First up, price action is still trading well below the 200-day moving average (gold line) which suggests the longer-term trend remains bearish. Next, we can see the formation of a bullish flag which initially sparked my interest yesterday, but now looking more like a false breakout with the price rejecting those levels above 1230.00. Of course, the potential is still there for this pattern to develop further.

It would be wise to remain cautious though. XAUUSD Daily - Candlestick Chart The last two aspects of this chart worth noting are that the current RSI (Relative Strength Index) is showing signs of heating up again, pushing up towards those overbought levels seen around the high. We also have a missed weekly pivot at the 1208.00 level which I think may present the next best support level in the short-term.

Both of these elements are arguably bearish for gold. I've included some Ichimoku analysis below, as I believe it showcases the bullish flag pattern a bit clearer than the previous chart. The other reason is to recognise that although price action has managed to punch above the cloud suggesting little resistance, the lagging span (purple line) paints a more subtle story, one of quiet indecision as it sits within the cloud.

This indicator spells a mixed bias from a directional perspective and leads me to believe we could be in for additional sideways moves longer-term. XAUUSD Daily - Ichimoku Chart Depending on which chart you analyse, the general sideways theme is persistent in all of them. In similar fashion to how the Ichimoku chart best illustrated the bullish flag pattern, the point and figure chart below captures this overall sideways movement in my opinion.

XAUUSD - Point & Figure Chart Delving further, we find another potential clue for the recent bullish momentum. Notice the recent sell-off, there was a considerable increase in supply following a rejection of the key resistance area (triple top) at 1350.00 so what we may be witnessing here is the price attempting to consolidate. So, do I believe stock market jitters are causing buyers to step back into gold as a potential flock to safety?

In short, no. While there is undoubtedly a case for this type of activity, I think it's too early to tell. I've also mentioned in previous articles that gold hasn't been behaving as a traditional safe-haven asset of late.

The technical picture is clear; the gold market is uncertain and somewhat confused as shown by the sideways tendencies. At this stage, only a convincing break above 1350.00 would give credit to a more substantial change in overall sentiment and another bullish run. For the time being at least, no doubt the meandering will continue, but overall I remain bearish on the precious metal in the medium to long-term.

By Adam Taylor This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk.

Sources: TradingView.com

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA – 18 April 2019. GO Markets is pleased to announce its expansion into the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region, operating as GO Markets MENA DMCC in Dubai, UAE. Located within the economic ‘free zone’ of the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC), GO Markets MENA DMCC has obtained its membership with the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange (DGCX).

GO Markets CEO Christopher Gore said: “Establishing a presence in the MENA region has been on our wish list for some time, so I’m very happy to see things finally coming together. What we’re trying to achieve here is somewhat different to what we’ve done elsewhere, and I believe we’ve got the technology and talent on the ground to make it happen. The DMCC and DGCX have given us a great opportunity and we hope to be a strong contributor and innovator for them in the years ahead.” GO Markets MENA DMCC is applying for its Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA) license and in the process of establishing a physical presence in the UAE to service its new and existing clientele.

GO Markets has established a solid global reputation as a trusted and reliable CFD provider, and this expansion will help traders access a wider range of quality instruments with competitive rates. About GO Markets GO Markets is a provider of Forex and CFD trading services, offering Margin FX, Commodities trading, Indices and Share CFDs trading to individuals and wholesale clients globally. GO Markets holds an AFSL (Australian Financial Services License) with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC).

Media Enquiries Zoher Janif +61 3 85667680

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA – 27 March 2019. GO Markets is pleased to add ASX shares to its CFD product range, increasing the number of instruments available to more than 250. With a previous focus towards Margin FX (Forex), CFD commodities and Indices, the move is expected to open the door to traders seeking multiple assets within a single platform.

Traders can now trade popular ASX Shares such as Rio Tinto, Commonwealth Bank, Telstra and more, with margin requirements starting from 5%. CEO, Christopher Gore said: “It’s been a long time coming, and all part of our central plan to have an all-inclusive offering for our clientele. Over time, we hope to be launching an even greater variety of global markets, with NYSE and NASDAQ stocks flagged for Q2 2019.” Head of Trading, Tom Williams stated “GO Markets has worked tirelessly behind the scenes over the last 12 months to upgrade its technology and infrastructure, making this exciting new offering possible.

New and existing clients can start trading ASX Share CFDs on the GO Markets MT5 Trading Platform, while we continue to optimise and prepare for the launch of NYSE and NASDAQ stocks.” Traders can take both long and short positions on Share CFDs and can also diversify existing portfolios using one platform. About GO Markets GO Markets is a provider of Forex and CFD trading services, offering Margin FX, Commodities, Indices, and Share CFDs trading to individuals and institutions globally. GO Markets holds an AFSL (Australian Financial Services License) with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC).

Media Enquiries Zoher Janif +61 3 85667680