市場新聞與洞察
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三家中央银行同时决定利率,布伦特原油在每桶100美元左右大幅波动,中东战争正在实时改写通胀前景。无论本周发生什么,都可能为2026年剩余时间的市场定下基调。
事实速览
- 这个 澳大利亚储备银行(RBA) 周二宣布其下一次现金利率决定,市场目前认为第二次上调至4.1%的可能性为66%。
- 一些分析师警告说,到年底,伊朗战争可能会将美国的通货膨胀率推迟到3.5%,并将美联储的降息推迟到9月,这使本周的联邦公开市场委员会点阵图成为多年来最受关注的点阵图。
- 伊朗发起官方媒体称其为 “自战争开始以来最激烈的行动”,此后,布伦特原油价格上涨至每桶100美元。
澳洲联储:澳大利亚会再次加息吗?
在2025年下半年通货膨胀率大幅回升之后,澳大利亚央行在2月份的会议上两年来首次将现金利率提高至3.85%。
现在的问题是,在下一季度消费者价格指数公布之前,它是否会再次发生变化,该数据要到4月29日才能公布。
副州长安德鲁·豪瑟在会前承认,决策者面临着一个真正分歧的决定,这个决定是由国内相互矛盾的经济信号和国外日益加剧的不稳定性造成的。
金融市场目前认为再次加息的可能性约为66%,无论周一发生什么情况,5月份的加息几乎是肯定的。
关键日期
- 澳洲联储现金利率决定: 澳大利亚东部夏令时间3月17日星期二下午 2:30
- 布洛克州长新闻发布会: 澳大利亚东部夏令时间3月17日星期二下午 3:30
监视器
- 布洛克可能在5月提及进一步加息
- 澳元/美元立即做出反应。
- 澳大利亚证券交易所银行和房地产投资信托基金。

联邦公开市场委员会:可能持有,所有人都在关注点阵图
联邦公开市场委员会将于3月17日至18日举行会议,政策声明定于美国东部时间3月18日下午2点发布,主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的新闻发布会定于下午2点30分。芝加哥商品交易所联邦观察显示,美联储将利率维持在3.50%至3.75%的可能性为99%。
真正的行动在经济预测摘要(SEP)和点图中。目前的中点显示2026年削减了25个基点。如果转为两次削减,那对风险资产来说是鸽派和利好的。如果转为零降息或在预测中增加加息,市场可能会朝另一个方向做出反应。
使事情进一步复杂化的是,鲍威尔的美联储主席任期将于2026年5月23日届满。凯文·沃什是接替他的主要候选人,他认为他在货币政策上更加鹰派。鲍威尔对这一转变的任何评论都可能独立于利率决定本身推动市场。
关键日期
- 联邦公开市场委员会利率决定 + SEP/DOT 图: 澳大利亚东部夏令时间3月19日星期四凌晨 4:00
- 鲍威尔新闻发布会: 澳大利亚东部夏令时间3月19日星期四凌晨 4:30
监视器
- 鲍威尔关于石油和关税通胀的措辞。
- 2年期美国国债收益率反应。
- 芝加哥商品交易所 FedWatch 会根据9月份减产概率的任何变化重新定价。

日本银行:可能会提前进一步收紧政策
日本央行将于3月18日至19日举行会议,预计将在东京时间周四上午做出决定。目前的政策利率为0.75%(30年来的最高水平),2026年1月的会议以8票对1票维持不变。
上田州长将三月份的会议归类为 “现场会议”,并指出,如果Shunto春季工资谈判得出强于预期的结果,进一步紧缩的时间表可能 “提前”。
这些结果将在本周开始公布,这使它们成为日本央行决定的关键投入。野村预计,2026年申通的工资将增长约5.0%,包括资历,基本薪酬增长约3.4%。如果结果证实了这一轨迹,那么3月份加息的理由就会大大加强。
复杂之处在于全球背景。日本大约90%的能源需求是进口的,而每桶约100美元的石油正在推高进口成本,并有可能增加通货膨胀压力。日本央行在全球石油冲击中加息将是一个异常大胆的举动。
大多数市场参与者仍然倾向于在本次会议上暂停,4月或7月被视为更有可能采取下一步行动的时机。
关键日期
- 日本央行政策利率决定(目前为0.75%): 澳大利亚东部夏令时间3月19日星期四上午
监视器
- Shunto 的工资业绩是 3 月份加息的主要触发因素。
- 4月和7月的上田新闻发布会语言和前瞻性指导。
- 美元/日元的反应。

石油:持续波动
本周早些时候,布伦特原油短暂触及每桶119.50美元,随后下跌17%,至80美元以下,随后因华盛顿发出有关霍尔木兹海峡的喜忧参半的信号而反弹至95美元。
截至周四,由于伊朗对商业航运发动了新的攻击,而国际能源署的储备金未能带来有意义的缓解,布伦特原油价格回升至100美元以上。
在长期冲突对能源基础设施造成损害的情况下,分析师估计,到2026年底,消费者价格指数可能升至3.5%,第二季度汽油价格接近每加仑5美元。
在本周,石油充当宏观元变量。每一个地缘政治头条、停火信号、油轮袭击、储备金释放和特朗普的言论都可能实时影响股票、债券和货币。
监视器
- 任何恢复的霍尔木兹海峡油轮航行。
- 国际能源署紧急储备金发布。
- 特朗普关于伊朗的声明。
- 能源板块股票。

Chris Gore ( LinkedIn ) is GO Markets’ CEO, Company Secretary and Responsible Manager for their AFSL licence. He’s a long-serving staff member at GO Markets and an industry veteran in the Forex operations and commentary business, with at least 10 years’ experience. Chris is most known for showing a level-headed approach to a market that often opts for scuttlebutt and hearsay.
This is a fascinating episode recorded earlier in the year, where we covered: Distribution & intervention bill Applying new laws, Consumer risk, leverage GO Markets update and future Recent AU election, market movement Current state of economy Global state of affairs

Vee Leung Phan ( @TrackRecordAsia ) is the Founder of TrackRecord Asia and former Head of Trading across multiple divisions for Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley. TrackRecord Asia is a financial training academy for trading teams in banks and professional traders – designed to teach you the frameworks learnt in his days across first-class institutions. In this follow-up episode from Season 1, we covered: TrackRecord Asia Philosophy & Risk management His approach to trading Global state of affairs Hong Kong protests & China

Martin North is the Principal of Digital Finance Analytics, a boutique research, analysis and consulting firm. This former consultant of Booz Allen & Fujitsu Australia pedigree is well known for his level-headed approach to financial markets & the economy. His Walk The World channel on YouTube is a must for astute economy watchers in Australia.
While his commentary is highly regarded across mainstream media such as the AFR, Sydney Morning Herald, the ABC, 9News and many more. In this episode we covered: Growing up in UK & early memories His career path and insight, corporate consulting The state of Australia’s economy, housing sector Productive vs. non-value adding investments His first 90 days as Prime Minister; and His take on crypto.

Holding over 11 years of experience as both a trader and educator, Craig has always been the type to distil noise into digestible information. He is one of the most original & astute Australian commentators from the early days of the industry and with that comes a wealth of market experience. Well known for his institutional background, Craig has helped many in the crypto space navigate this fascinating new world with a framework that can be applied to all asset classes.
In this episode we covered: Chronic fatigue syndrome How he got into trading Successes and failures The state of crypto; and Cobb’s trading principles

Daryl Guppy is the founder of GuppyTraders.com, Commentator for CNBC Asia, Author of multiple books on trading including Share Trading, Bear Trading and Trading Asian Shares. He is one of the most original and astute Australian commentators from the early days of the industry and with that comes a wealth of market experience. In this episode we covered: China and his experience How he got into financial markets Technical charting, Fundamental analysis How Guppytraders.com started; and Perception of China and the Trade Wars.

Rupert Hackett is the Co-Founder and Advisor at Caleb & Brown, while also a Director at ADCA (Australia Digital Commerce Association). Caleb & Brown is Australia’s first cryptocurrency brokerage, and Rupert is undoubtedly one of the best minds when it comes to local industry governance in Australia. This was a great chat on the developments in the world of cryptocurrency on the client side on the business.
In this episode we covered: OTC, Caleb & Brown Crypto, consulting, and risk How exchanges and settlements work Client demographics and acquisition; and The global crypto market & analytics.
