市場新聞與洞察

The recent surge in gold prices, following recent events in the Middle East and the declining US Dollar (DXY), raises the question: Is this the end of the bull run for Gold (XAU/USD)? Gold started rising earlier this month after rejecting the price level of 1815.00. Since then, it has steadily climbed back to its previous peak of 1984.00, a resistance point that was notably challenging to breach in July.

This recent surge in gold prices, due in part to recent events in the Middle East, is attracting more bullish activity in the gold market. Simultaneously, the declining value of the US Dollar (DXY) has contributed to the upward movement of gold prices. Where can we see gold go in the near future?

In the market, assets tend to move in one of three directions: up, down, or sideways, often referred to as consolidation. Given that gold has reached its previous peak, it may seek potential support, which appears to be around 1930-1931. Concurrently, the US Dollar is experiencing a decline in value.

If gold manages to surpass the resistance at 1984.00, the next hurdle could be at 2060.00. This level is evident on the daily timeframe, where the price has approached 2060 on multiple occasions, only to be rejected. What about the DXY and XAU/USD?

The relationship between DXY (Dollar Index) and gold (XAU/USD) is intricate. Sometimes, when the dollar index is declining, the price of gold tends to move sideways or increase. However, examining larger time frames like the 4-hourly or daily charts reveals an inverse pattern of rejection and price rise between these two markets.

It's important to note that gold's movements are not solely dependent on the USD; other significant factors, including news, social and geo-political events can also play a substantial role in influencing its price fluctuations. Why is gold so important? Apart from its physical shine and the enduring symbolic connection with wealth seen throughout human history, gold holds significance as a historically reliable store of value and a means of exchange.

Unlike many other commodities, gold does not diminish or get depleted, giving it a timeless sense of worth. It can act as a safeguard against the erosion of currency value caused by inflation, prompting numerous investors to view gold as an alternative asset and a method of preserving their wealth. How can I trade gold?

At GO Markets, we provide Metal CFDs for trading, offering not only gold but also silver and copper futures. Our goal is to deliver an exceptional trading experience to our clients. We take pride in offering one of the best online trading platforms for gold, silver, and copper futures, in addition to providing access to FX, Soft Commodities, Shares, and Indexes, enabling our clients to diversify their investments across various financial markets.

The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) reported its fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2023 results ending September 30, 2023, after the market close in the US on Wednesday. Company overview Founded: October 16, 1923 Headquarters: Team Disney Building, Walt Disney Studios, Burbank, California, United States Number of employees: 220,000 (2022) Industry: media, entertainment Key people: Mark Parker (chairman), Bob A. Iger (CEO) The results World’s third largest entertainment company reported revenue of $21.241 billion for the quarter (up by 5% year-over-year), narrowly missing analyst estimate of $21.369 billion.

Revenue for the full year reached $88.898 billion, an increase of 7% from the previous year. Earnings per share reported at $0.82 per share, above analyst estimate of $0.71 per share. EPS for the full year reached $3.76 per share.

Disney+ added 7 million core subscribers during the previous quarter. CEO commentary "Our results this quarter reflect the significant progress we’ve made over the past year," Robert A. Iger, CEO of Disney commented on the latest results. "While we still have work to do, these efforts have allowed us to move beyond this period of fixing and begin building our businesses again.

We have a solid foundation of creative excellence and innovation built over the past century, which has only been reinforced by the important restructuring and cost efficiency work we’ve done this year, and we’re on track to achieve roughly $7.5 billion in cost reductions. Combined with our portfolio of valuable businesses, brands and assets – and the way we manage them together – Disney has a strong hand that differentiates us from others in our industry." "As we look forward, there are four key building opportunities that will be central to our success: achieving significant and sustained profitability in our streaming business, building ESPN into the preeminent digital sports platform, improving the output and economics of our film studios, and turbocharging growth in our parks and experiences business. We have already made considerable advancements in these four areas and will continue to move forward with a sense of purpose and urgency, and I’m bullish about the opportunities we have before us to create lasting growth and increase shareholder value," Iger concluded.

The latest results had a positive impact on the stock in the after-hours trading. Shares were up by around 3%.The stock is down by 2.59% in the past year at $84.50 per share. 1 month: -0.41% 3 months: -3.42% Year-to-date: -2.74% 1 year: -2.59% Walt Disney price targets JP Morgan: $120 Seaport Global: $93 Bernstein: $103 Rosenblatt: $103 B of A Securities: $110 Truist Securities: $105 Raymond James: $97 Wells Fargo: $110 Goldman Sachs: $136 Deutsche Bank: $135 Walt Disney is the 68th largest company in the world with a market cap of $154.61 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.

GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?

Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: The Walt Disney Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia, Benzinga

Tuesdays FX session is turning out to be a mirror image on Monday’s session Where the USD was battered against its major peers. Today, seeing almost a full retrace of those moves as USD is once again king. The Dollar Index (DXY) respected the upward trendline support that has led DXY higher since July (with the exception of a brief break in early September).

A less aggressive CNH fix by the PBoC and sour risk sentiment also helping the Dollar. DXY rebounding strongly in Tuesday’s session so far, the 105 level will be key. DXY has found increasing resistance above this level for the last 12 months and with an empty news calendar in the US a push higher through the key 105 level in today’s session would be tough going.

GBPUSD had an initial and very brief spike higher on a hot headline UK average earnings figure, but quickly retraced from a high of 1.2530, losing the psychological 1.2500 as other jobs data painted a grim picture, with the unemployment rate a 200k+ drop in the employment and downward revisions on previous data weighing on Sterling. USDJPY continued to march higher, looking to fill the gap after the Monday open gap down on Japanese jawboning over the weekend. USDJPY did breach the psychological 147 level earlier in the session but has found some resistance there and at the 23.6 Fibonacci level (147.06) going into the US session.

AUDUSD gave back some of the big gains in Mondays session, but a rebound in the price of iron ore and a relatively firm CNH helped the Aussie stem it’s losses against the USD and certainly out performed its Antipodean rival the NZD. AUDUSD holding the key 0.6400 level trading within 0.6417-40, AUDNZD trading near the top of its recent range, getting to a high of 1.0885 in the Asian session. NZD undermined by downgrades to NZ fiscal projections in a pre-election report.

The US economic calendar is empty of key risk events in Tuesday’s session, all eyes will be on tomorrows pivotal CPI report though.

Comments from Bank of Japan governor Ueda over the week saw USDJPY gap significantly lower at the Asian session open. The pair now trading well under 147 from eight-month highs at Fridays close. Ueda commented that the BoJ cannot rule out that they might have sufficient data by year-end to determine whether they can end negative rates, this brings the timeline forward of Japanese normalization, previously not signaled to begin until 2024.

US-JPY rate differentials compressed on the news, with the predictable move in USDJPY to the downside. USDJPY found some support at the 4H trendline and has retraced some of its losses in the EU session, hovering just below the key resistance level of 146.63, a resistance level that capped gains in the pair during August. Key UK wage and jobs data released on Tuesday, is looking to show some cooling in the UK jobs market but probably not enough to avoid a September BoE rate hike.

GBPUSD holding the major support at 1.2450 and continuing to rise, reclaiming the psychological 1.2500 level, and piercing trendline resistance to the upside. Tomorrows figure, if a big miss or big beat, should see some action in GBP as rate hike/hold odds adjust. The Aussie dollar has surged today, AUDUSD breaking out of its tight September range and reclaiming the major S/R level at 0.6400.

AUD gaining alongside the CNH after the PBoC set the strongest fix signal on record. Chinese data released over the weekend also showing the worlds second largest economy bouncing back from deflation.

Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE: UBER) released its latest earnings results before the market open in the US on Tuesday. Let’s see how it performed in Q3. Company overview Founded: March 2009 Headquarters: San Francisco, California, United States Number of employees: 32,800 (2022) Industry: Transportation, food delivery Key people: Ronald Sugar (Chairman), Dara Khosrowshahi (CEO) The results The company reported revenue of $9.292 billion for the quarter (up by 11% year-over-year), missing analyst estimate of $9.539 billion.

Earnings per share (EPS) reported above estimates at $0.10 per share vs. $0.071 per share expected. Uber completed 2.4 billion trips during the quarter, up by 25% during the same period last year. Monthly active platform consumers reached 142 million in Q3, up by 15% year-over-year.

CEO and CFO commentary "Our relentless focus on improving the product experience for both consumers and drivers continued to power profitable growth, with trip growth accelerating to 25%," Uber CEO, Dara Khosrowshahi said in a statement. "Uber’s core business is stronger than ever as we enter the busiest period of the year," Khosrowshahi added. "Strong topline trends and record profitability demonstrate the durability of our growth and the significant earnings power underlying our platform," Nelson Chai, CFO of the company said about the latest results. "We continue to make disciplined investments in growth opportunities to support long-term value creation for all stakeholders," Chai concluded. The stock was up by around 1% on Tuesday, trading at the highest level since 11th September at $48.94 a share. Stock performance 1 month: +5.49% 3 months: +8.92% Year-to-date: +98.91% 1 year: +79.26% Uber price targets Keybanc: $50 Seaport Global: $51 Needham: $60 RBC Capital: $58 Wells Fargo: $59 Loop Capital: $58 JP Morgan: $56 Truist Securities: $60 Morgan Stanley: $60 Uber is the 131st largest company in the world with a market cap of $100.92 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.

You can trade Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE: UBER) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time.

Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Uber Technologies Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia

CPI is a globally recognised economic indicator used by many countries to measure inflation and assess changes in the cost of living for their citizens. It evaluates the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services, such as food, clothing, rent, healthcare, entertainment, and transportation. Compiled by national statistical agencies or organisations in various countries, the CPI reflects the purchasing power of a country's currency.

By monitoring CPI trends, policymakers and economists gain insights into the overall economic health, make informed decisions about monetary policy, and understand how price changes impact the general population's standard of living. In an international context, different countries might have their own versions of CPI tailored to their specific economic circumstances and consumer behaviours. However, the fundamental concept remains consistent: CPI measures the average change in prices paid by consumers, making it a crucial tool for understanding inflationary pressures and making economic comparisons across nations.

Key takeaways CPI functions as a universal tool used by countries around the world to measure inflation and evaluate changes in the cost of living. Here are the key points in this global perspective: Global Measurement of Consumer Prices: The CPI serves as a global standard for measuring changes in the prices of goods and services consumed by households. Each country typically has its own CPI, tailored to its specific consumption patterns, demographics, and economic structure.

Universal Indicator of Inflation: Internationally, the CPI is universally recognised as a crucial indicator of inflation. Central banks, policymakers, economists, and businesses in various countries closely monitor CPI trends. It helps them understand the impact of price changes on their economies and make informed decisions about monetary policies and economic strategies.

Diverse Basket of Goods and Services: The CPI in different countries includes a diverse basket of goods and services that are essential to the local population. This basket is regularly updated to reflect contemporary consumption habits, ensuring that the CPI accurately represents the changing cost of living for people. Data Collection and Analysis: Countries globally conduct extensive data collection efforts to calculate their CPI.

This involves collecting price data from various sources, including retail outlets, service providers, and housing markets. The data collected provides valuable insights into the purchasing power of the local currency and helps assess the economic well-being of citizens. Policy Implications: CPI data influences policy decisions not only at the national level but also in international trade and finance.

It affects decisions related to interest rates, social welfare programs, and economic reforms. Moreover, it plays a significant role in international economic comparisons, enabling policymakers to assess their country's economic performance relative to others. Understanding the CPI For example, the US has the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) conduct extensive data collection efforts to create the CPI data, gathering approximately 80,000 price points every month from 23,000 retail and service outlets.

Despite both CPI variants having the term "urban" in their names, the more comprehensive and widely referenced version covers 93% of the U.S. population. Within the CPI, the housing category, which constitutes a significant one-third of the index, is determined through a survey of rental prices for 50,000 housing units. This data is then utilised to calculate the increase in rental prices as well as the equivalent costs for homeowners.

In particular, the owners' equivalent category factors in the rent equivalent for owner-occupied housing, ensuring an accurate representation of housing expenses in consumer spending. It includes user fees and sales or excise taxes but excludes income taxes and the prices of investments like stocks, bonds, or life insurance policies from CPI calculations. The calculation of CPI indexes incorporates several important considerations.

Firstly, it accounts for substitution effects, recognising that consumers tend to redirect their spending when certain products or categories become relatively more expensive. Additionally, the calculation adjusts price data to accommodate changes in product quality and features, ensuring a more accurate representation of actual consumer spending. Moreover, the weighting of product and service categories in the CPI indexes is based on recent consumer spending patterns, derived from a separate survey.

This weighting reflects the significance of different items in the average consumer's budget, providing a realistic portrayal of how expenditure is distributed across various goods and services. By integrating these factors, CPI indexes offer a nuanced and precise measurement of changes in the cost of living for consumers. CPI Categories The monthly CPI released by the BLS provides a comprehensive overview of economic changes.

This report highlights alterations from the previous month for the overall CPI-U and its significant subcategories, including the unadjusted year-over-year changes. The BLS detailed tables further break down price shifts for a wide array of goods and services grouped under eight overarching spending categories. These detailed tables allow for precise analysis, estimating price variations for items ranging from everyday groceries like tomatoes and salad dressing to services such as auto repairs and sporting event tickets.

For each subcategory, both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted price changes are provided, offering a nuanced understanding of consumer spending patterns. Beyond the national CPI indexes, the BLS also publishes CPI data for US regions, sub-regions, and major metropolitan areas. Notably, metropolitan data can exhibit more significant fluctuations, primarily serving the purpose of identifying localised price changes based on unique regional conditions.

What Makes CPI Significant for Currency Traders? The CPI indicator, often termed "headline inflation" in markets, holds immense significance in the realm of currency trading. This is primarily because inflation has a profound impact on the decisions taken by central banks concerning their monetary policies.

Central banks, like the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, typically have a mandate to maintain inflation at a specific level, often around 2.0% annually (source: the Fed, BOJ). To achieve these targets, policymakers adjust interest rates, employing them as a mechanism to attain the desired inflation levels. Additionally, they might implement other strategies such as bond-purchasing agreements or expanding the money supply.

When inflation levels deviate from these targets, it serves as an important signal for central banks to consider altering interest rates. If inflation exceeds the 2.0% target, central banks like the Federal Reserve might increase interest rates to curb excessive spending. This, in turn, strengthens the dollar against other currencies since a higher interest rate makes the U.S. currency more attractive.

Furthermore, CPI serves as a forward-looking indicator of an economy's performance. In instances where inflation rises sharply, as witnessed in countries like Brazil and Venezuela in recent years, consumers tend to save less as their purchasing power diminishes. This dynamic reflects the broader economic landscape and significantly influences market behaviours and currency values.

When a central bank raises interest rates to counter inflation, it usually leads to a reduction in borrowing. Both individuals, seeking loans for purchases, and businesses, aiming to expand their operations, tend to cut back on borrowing due to the higher cost. This decrease in borrowing activity can have significant implications for a nation's overall Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

How CPI Data Affects the Dollar on the Forex Market? The Federal Reserve operates under a dual mandate: to achieve full employment and maintain a stable, healthy rate of inflation during economic expansion. Consequently, forex traders closely watch both unemployment and inflation data, as these figures influence the central bank's decisions on adjusting interest rates—decisions that significantly affect currency strength or weakness.

Forex traders regard the CPI and Core CPI figures as pivotal indicators for gauging an economy's performance. Among these, Core CPI provides a more insightful perspective by excluding volatile energy and food prices. In the United States, the Labor Department releases these figures, excluding energy and food costs from the measurement.

If the Core CPI surpasses market expectations, the dollar typically strengthens against other currencies. Conversely, if these readings fall short of consensus forecasts, the currency weakens relative to other pairs. Importantly, the impact extends beyond the monthly report.

Like all government data, CPI figures are subject to revisions by economists. Such revisions can spark significant volatility in a currency's value on the global market. This continuous assessment of economic indicators shapes traders' strategies, highlighting the vital role of CPI data in the forex market.

Conclusion CPI is a pivotal measure reflecting pricing dynamics within an economy and serves as a reliable indicator of inflation. Forex traders keenly observe the CPI because it often prompts adjustments in monetary policies by central banks. These policy changes can either bolster or diminish a currency's value relative to its counterparts in the markets.

Additionally, the strength or weakness of a currency profoundly influences the earnings of companies operating in diverse global markets, making CPI a key metric watched closely by both traders and businesses.