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周三的美国通货膨胀数据是本周的核心,但随着石油价格接近七个月高点,比特币(BTC)情绪发生变化,澳元处于三年高位,交易者在未来一周还有很多工作要做。
事实速览
- 美国通货膨胀率(二月)是降息定价和股票方向的关键二元事件。
- 布伦特原油交易价格约为82-84美元/桶,接近七个月高点,伊朗/霍尔木兹紧张局势引发的地缘政治风险溢价为4至10美元。
- 截至3月6日,比特币的交易价格已超过7万美元,如果本周保持不变,则可能出现趋势变化。
美国:通货膨胀是焦点
上个月的美国通胀数据显示,物价同比上涨2.4%,仍远高于美联储2%的目标。
将于周三公布的2月份通货膨胀率将受到审查,看是否有迹象表明关税转嫁或能源成本上涨正在推动价格回升,或者缓慢的下跌趋势是否仍然完好无损。
3月17日至18日的联邦公开市场委员会会议现在估计,削减的可能性仅为4.7%。本周的通胀数据高于预期,可能会进一步推高降息预期。
疲软的解读为新的削减定价和风险资产的潜在救济打开了大门。
重要日期
- 美国通货膨胀率(二月份CPI): 3 月 11 日星期三上午 12:30(澳大利亚东部夏令时间)
监视器
- 核心通货膨胀与总体通货膨胀的差异是商品价格关税转嫁的证据。
- 2年期和10年期美国国债收益率对印刷品的敏感度。
- 在3月18日联邦公开市场委员会做出决定之前,美元走势和联邦观察重新定价。

油:升高且对事件敏感
布伦特原油目前的交易价格约为每桶83-85美元,52周区间为58.40美元至85.12美元,反映了中东冲突引发的戏剧性走势。
分析师估计,石油的地缘政治风险溢价已经从1月份的62.02美元上调至每桶4至10美元,而2026年布伦特原油的平均预测已从1月份的62.02美元上调至63.85美元/桶。
环境影响评估的《短期能源展望》预测,2026年布伦特原油平均价格为58美元/桶,远低于目前的现货价格。
现货和预测基线之间的差距可能成为本周交易者的有用框架:来自中东的任何缓和局势信号都可能迅速缩小这一差距。
监视器
- 霍尔木兹海峡的事态发展以及伊朗核谈判发出的任何外交信号。
- 环境影响评估每周石油库存数据。
- 石油对通货膨胀预期的影响以及它是否改变了央行的态势。
- 能源板块股票相对于大盘的表现。

比特币:情绪观察
在地缘政治紧张局势升级和新的关税担忧的推动下,比特币在过去17周经历了53%的残酷回调,一直试图稳定下来。
然而,昨天上涨了8%,回升至72,000美元以上,加密货币 “恐惧与贪婪指数” 从持续一个多月的20(极度恐惧)下方跃升至29(恐惧),这表明市场情绪可能发生转变。
周三的美国通胀数据低于预期,可能会为突破提供进一步的推动力;热点报告有可能使比特币回落至其刚刚收复的7万美元水平以下。
监视器
- 周三的通货膨胀反应是此举的主要宏观催化剂。
- 在比特币走强之后,任何向山寨币的轮换。
- ETF流入/流出数据作为机构参与的确认。

澳元/美元:鹰派澳大利亚央行遇上地缘政治逆风
澳元的交易价格接近三年多的高点,并将连续第四个月上涨,今年迄今已上涨6%以上,使其成为2026年表现最好的G10货币。
驱动因素是明显的政策分歧。澳洲联储行长米歇尔·布洛克表示,3月的政策会议已经 “上线”,可能的加息,并警告说,伊朗紧张局势带来的油价冲击可能会重新点燃国内通货膨胀压力。
现在,市场定价表明,在即将举行的会议上加息25个基点的可能性约为28%,而在5月之前将全面收紧政策,到年底再次上涨至4.35%的可能性约为75%。
这种鹰派态度与美联储搁置不前并面临鸽派政治压力的对立面,为澳元带来了潜在的结构性利好。
监视器
- 澳元/美元对周三美国通胀数据的反应。
- 澳洲联储本周加息概率重新定价。
- 铁矿石和大宗商品价格是澳元的次要驱动力。
- 鉴于澳大利亚的出口风险,中国的需求信号。



Salesforce Inc. (NYSE: CRM) reported its latest financial results after the closing bell in the US on Wednesday. World’s leading customer relationship management company topped both revenue and earnings per share estimates (EPS) for the third quarter of fiscal 2024. Company overview Founded: February 3, 1999 Headquarters: Salesforce Tower, San Francisco, California, United States Number of employees: 79,390 (2023) Industry: Cloud computing, Enterprise software, Consulting Key people: Marc Benioff (Chairman & CEO) The results The company reported revenue of $8.72 billion vs. $8.715 billion expected.
Revenue was up by 11% vs. the same period last year. EPS reported at $2.11 per share (up by 50.71% year-over-year) vs. $2.055 per share estimate. CEO commentary "We had another strong quarter of executing on our profitable growth plan we set in motion last year, delivering $8.7 billion in revenue and again raising our operating margin guidance for this fiscal year," Marc Benioff, CEO of Salesforce commented on the latest results. "We're now the third largest enterprise software company by revenue, the number one AI CRM and the number one enterprise apps company.
Most importantly, we're bringing CRM, data, AI and trust together in a single, integrated platform, leading our customers into a new era of incredible productivity and growth," Benioff concluded. Stock reaction Shares of Salesforce ended Thursday’s session up by 2.41% at $230.35 a share. The stock was up by 8% in the after-hours trading.
Stock performance 1 month: +12.40% 3 months: +6.58% Year-to-date: +72.86% 1 year: +43.03% Salesforce stock price targets RBC Capital: $240 Piper Sandler: $232 Macquarie: $250 Truist Financial: $275 Goldman Sachs: $340 Citigroup: $230 Salesforce Inc. is the 41st largest company in the world with a market cap of $224.35 billion. You can trade Salesforce Inc. (NYSE: CRM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Salesforce Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, TipRanks, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap, FactSet


PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: PDD) reported Q3 financial results before the market open in the US on Tuesday. The Chinese company beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates, sending the stock higher. Company overview Founded: 2015 Headquarters: Shanghai, China Number of employees: 12,992 (2022) Industry: Internet, Agriculture Key people: Lei Chen The results PDD reported revenue of $7.207 billion for the quarter (up by 94% year-over-year), well above the $5.982 billion expected.
EPS reported at $1.28 per share vs. $1.007 per share estimate. CEO commentary "We are dedicated to generating value through innovations, which forms the foundation of our high-quality development," Lei Chen, CEO of PDD Holdings said in the Q3 earnings report press release. "We continued to invest decisively in areas such as agritech, supply chain technology, and core R&D capabilities. Through these efforts, we aim to create our unique value" Chen highlighted where the company is looking to improve moving forward.
Stock reaction The latest results had a huge impact on the stock. Shares were up by over 18% on Tuesday at $139.84 a share – the highest level since March 2021. Stock performance 1 month: +37.67% 3 months: +49.78% Year-to-date: +71.21% 1 year: +78.02% PDD stock price targets HSBC: $125 Bank of America: $112 Credit Suisse: $140 Barclays: $115 JP Morgan: $120 PDD Holdings is the 58 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $185.31 billion.
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One of the most anticipated earnings releases in the calendar is here. NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) announced the latest results after the closing bell on Tuesday. Let’s see how one of the companies from the ''trillion club'' performed.
Company overview Founded: 5/4/1993 Headquarters: Santa Clara, California, United States Number of employees: 26,196 (2023) Industry: Computer hardware, computer software, cloud computing, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, GPUs Graphics cards Consumer electronics Video games Key people: Jensen Huang (President and CEO) The results NVIDIA reported revenue that beat Wall Street estimates at $18.12 billion for the third quarter fiscal 2024 vs. $16.12 billion expected. Revenues were up by 205% year-over-year. Earnings per share also beat estimates at $4.02 per share (up by 48.88% year-over-year) vs. $3.367 per share expected.
The company expects revenue of around $20 billion for the fourth quarter. CEO commentary "Our strong growth reflects the broad industry platform transition from general-purpose to accelerated computing and generative AI," Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA said in a letter to investors. "Large language model startups, consumer internet companies and global cloud service providers were the first movers, and the next waves are starting to build. Nations and regional CSPs are investing in AI clouds to serve local demand, enterprise software companies are adding AI copilots and assistants to their platforms, and enterprises are creating custom AI to automate the world’s largest industries.
NVIDIA GPUs, CPUs, networking, AI foundry services and NVIDIA AI Enterprise software are all growth engines in full throttle. The era of generative AI is taking off," Huang highlighted how the world is adapting to and embracing AI. Stock reaction The stock was down by 0.92% at $499.44 a share before the results were announced.
Share price fell by around 1% in the after-hours trading as the market digested the latest results. Stock performance 1 month: +14.39% 3 months: +9.36% Year-to-date: +241.75% 1 year: +211.41% NVIDIA stock price targets Stifel: $600 Piper Sandler: $620 Wedbush: $600 Bernstein: $675 Keybanc: $650 Morgan Stanley: $600 Citigroup: $575 Truist Securities: $668 Jefferies: $610 TD Cowen: $600 NVIDIA Corporation is the 6th largest company in the world with a market cap of $1.233 trillion. You can trade NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
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Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) released first quarter of fiscal 2024 earnings results after the market close in the US on Wednesday. US semiconductor company reported revenue of $4.726 billion, which was above Wall Street analyst estimate of $4.581 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) reported loss per share of -$0.95 for the quarter vs. -$1.005 loss per share expected.
Company overview Founded: October 5, 1978 Headquarters: Boise, Idaho, United States Number of employees: Robert E. Switz (Chairman), Sanjay Mehrotra (President & CEO) Industry: Semiconductors Key people: 43,000 (2023) CEO commentary "Micron’s strong execution and pricing drove better-than-anticipated first quarter financial results," Sanjay Mehrotra, CEO of the company said in a press release. "We expect our business fundamentals to improve throughout 2024, with record industry TAM projected for calendar 2025. Our industry-leading High Bandwidth Memory for data center AI applications illustrates the strength of our technology and product roadmaps, and we are well positioned to capitalize on the immense opportunities artificial intelligence is fueling across end markets," Mehrotra looked at what’s ahead for Micron.
Stock reaction The stock was down by 4.24% at the end of trading on Wednesday at $78.69 a share. Shares rose by around 4% after Micron topped analyst estimates for the quarter. Stock performance 1 month: +2.13% 3 months: +13% Year-to-date: +57.54% 1 year: +53.82% Micron Technology stock price targets Rosenblatt Securities: $100 BMO Capital Markets: $90 TD Cowen: $100 Susquehanna: $112 Stifel Nicolaus: $76 Bank of America: $95 UBS Group: $90 Mizuho: $86 Citigroup: $88 Barclays: $85 Morgan Stanley: $71.50 JP Morgan: $80 Micron Technology Inc. is the 168th largest company in the world with a market cap of $86.86 billion.
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One of the largest food retailers in the United States, Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR), announced Q3 earnings results before the opening bell in Wall Street on Thursday. Company overview Founded: 1883 Headquarters: Cincinnati, Ohio, United States Number of employees: 465,000 (2022) Industry: Retail Key people: Rodney McMullen (CEO & Chairman) The results Korger reported revenue of $33.957 billion for the quarter, narrowly beating analyst estimate of $33.903 billion. Earnings per share reported at $0.95 per share vs. $0.907 per share expected.
CEO commentary Rodney McMullen, CEO of the company had this to say in the letter to investors after the release of Q3 results: "Kroger's third quarter results highlight the strength and diversity of our business model in a challenged operating environment, as strong fuel performance and growth in our alternative profit businesses supported continued adjusted net earnings per diluted share growth. As consumer spending tightens, we are focused on providing customers with exceptional value. By maintaining our long-term commitment to lower prices, personalised promotions and rewards, we are growing households and increasing loyalty, positioning Kroger for sustainable future growth.
We appreciate our associates and continue to invest in wages, benefits and training, which is resulting in continued improvements in our customer experience. "Our model's strength allows us to navigate many economic environments. We remain committed to balancing investments in associates and greater value for our customers while continuing to generate attractive and sustainable returns for our shareholders," McMullen highlighted the importance of the companies strategy to continue deliver solid results in the future. Stock reaction The stock had a positive reaction following the Q3 results announcement.
Shares were up by just over 2% at $44.59 a share. Stock performance 1 month: -1.59% 3 months: -3.69% Year-to-date: +0.22% 1 year: -7.71% Kroger stock price targets Telsey Advisory Group: $44.88 Roth MKM: $48 Deutsche Bank: $50 Bernstein: $54 BMO Capital: $45 Northcoast Research: $60 Kroger Co. is the 549th largest company in the world with a market cap of $32.29 billion. You can trade Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
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US business software company Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU) announced the latest financial results for first quarter of fiscal 2024 after the closing bell in the US on Tuesday. Company overview Founded: 1983 Headquarters: Mountain View, California, United States Number of employees: 18,200 (2023) Industry: Enterprise software Key people: Sasan Goodarzi (CEO), Scott Cook (Chairman) The results Intuit reported revenue of $2.978 billion for the three months ending October 31 st (up by 15% from the same period last year), which was above analyst estimate of $2.878 billion. Earnings per share also topped analyst estimates at $2.47 per share (up by 49% year-over-year) vs. $1.978 per share expected.
The company reiterated full fiscal year 2024 revenue guidance of between $15.890 billion to $16.105 billion, which would represent growth of between 11% to 12% year-over-year. CEO commentary "We had a very strong first quarter, starting our fiscal year with momentum," CEO of Intuit, Sasan Goodarzi said in a letter to investors. "With data and AI core to our strategy, we're accelerating innovation across our global financial technology platform to power the prosperity of consumers and small businesses," Goodarzi added. Stock reaction The stock was up by 0.68% at $565.07 a share on Tuesday.
Share rose by around 1% in the after-hours trading as the latest results were announced. Stock performance 1 month: +14.17% 3 months: +5.33% Year-to-date: +45.18% 1 year: +48.82% Intuit stock price targets Wells Fargo: $575 Bank of America: $580 Morgan Stanley: $525 KeyBanc: $600 JP Morgan: $563 Intuit Inc. is the 71 st largest company in the world with a market cap of $158.18 billion. You can trade Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Intuit Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, TipRanks, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap, FactSet
