Noticias del mercado & perspectivas
Anticípate a los mercados con perspectivas de expertos, noticias y análisis técnico para guiar tus decisiones de trading.
Los datos de inflación de Estados Unidos del miércoles son la pieza central de la semana, pero con el petróleo acercándose a máximos de siete meses, el sentimiento de Bitcoin (BTC) cambiando y el dólar australiano en máximos de tres años, los comerciantes tienen mucho que navegar en la próxima semana.
Datos rápidos
- La tasa de inflación de Estados Unidos (febrero) es el evento binario clave para la fijación de precios de reducción de tasas y la dirección de la renta variable.
- El crudo Brent cotiza alrededor de US$82—84/BBL, cerca de máximos de siete meses, con una prima de riesgo geopolítico de 4 a 10 dólares gracias a las tensiones entre Irán y Ormuz.
- Bitcoin cotiza por encima de los 70.000 dólares al 6 de marzo, un posible cambio de tendencia si se mantiene a lo largo de la semana.
Estados Unidos: la inflación en foco
La lectura de inflación estadounidense del mes pasado mostró que los precios subieron 2.4% interanual, aún muy por encima de la meta de 2% de la Fed.
La tasa de inflación de febrero, que vence el miércoles, será examinada en busca de señales de que la traspaso de las tarifas o el aumento de los costos de la energía están haciendo que los precios vuelvan a subir, o si la lenta bajada sigue intacta.
La reunión del FOMC de marzo del 17 al 18 de marzo ahora tiene un precio de solo 4.7% de probabilidad de un recorte. Una impresión de inflación más alta de lo esperado esta semana podría potencialmente empujar aún más las expectativas de recorte de tasas.
Una lectura más suave abre la puerta a una nueva reducción de precios y un posible alivio en los activos de riesgo.
Fechas clave
- Tasa de inflación de Estados Unidos (IPC de febrero): Miércoles 11 de marzo, 12:30 h (AEDT)
Monitorear
- La divergencia de inflación básica frente a la general como evidencia de traspaso arancelario en los precios de los bienes.
- Sensibilidad de rendimiento de tesorería a 2 y 10 años a la impresión.
- Dirección del USD y retarificación de FedWatch antes de la decisión del FOMC del 18 de marzo.
Aceite: elevado y sensible a los eventos
Actualmente, el Brent cotiza alrededor de US$83—85 por barril, con un rango de 52 semanas que abarca US$58,40 a US$85,12, lo que refleja el dramático movimiento desencadenado por el conflicto de Oriente Medio.
Analistas estiman que la prima de riesgo geopolítico ya horneada al petróleo en 4 a 10 dólares por barril, y los pronósticos promedio del Brent 2026 se han elevado a 63,85 dólares por bbl, frente a los 62,02 dólares de enero.
El Perspectiva Energética a Corto Plazo de la EIA pronostica que el Brent promediará $58/bbl en 2026, muy por debajo del precio spot actual.
La brecha entre el spot y la línea base del pronóstico podría ser un marco útil para los comerciantes esta semana: cualquier señal de desescalada de Oriente Medio podría cerrar rápidamente esa brecha.
Monitorear
- Desarrollos del Estrecho de Ormuz y cualquier señal diplomática de las conversaciones nucleares de Irán.
- Datos de inventario de petróleo semanal de EIA.
- El derribación del petróleo a las expectativas de inflación y si cambia la postura del banco central.
- Desempeño de la renta variable del sector energético en relación con el mercado en general.
Bitcoin: vigilancia del sentimiento
BTC ha estado intentando estabilizarse después de una brutal corrección del 53% en las últimas 17 semanas, alimentada por la escalada de tensiones geopolíticas y las renovadas preocupaciones arancelarias.
No obstante, ayer se vio un salto de 8% por encima de los 72,000 dólares, y el cripto “índice de miedo y codicia” saltó a 29 (miedo), arriba desde debajo de 20 (miedo extremo), donde lleva más de un mes sentado, lo que indica un posible cambio de sentimiento.
Una impresión de inflación estadounidense más fresca de lo esperado el miércoles podría proporcionar más combustible para la ruptura; una impresión caliente corre el riesgo de que BTC vuelva a estar por debajo del nivel de US$70,000 que acaba de recuperar.
Monitorear
- Inflación impresión reacción el miércoles como el macrocatalizador primario de la mudanza.
- Cualquier rotación a altcoins siguiendo la fuerza de BTC.
- Datos de entrada/salida de ETF como confirmación de participación institucional.
AUD/USD: El RBA de Hawkish se encuentra con vientos cruzados geopolíticos
El australiano cotiza cerca de máximos de más de tres años y se dirige a su cuarta ganancia mensual consecutiva, con un aumento de más del 6% en lo que va de año, lo que la convierte en la moneda del G10 de mejor desempeño en 2026.
El impulsor es una clara divergencia política. La gobernadora del RBA, Michele Bullock, señaló que la reunión de política de marzo está “viva” para un posible aumento de tasas, y advirtió que un choque en el precio del petróleo por las tensiones en Irán podría reavivar las presiones inflacionarias internas.
Los precios de mercado ahora sugieren alrededor de un 28% de posibilidades de una subida de 25 pb en la próxima reunión, mientras que la fijación de precios por completo se ajustará hasta mayo, y alrededor de un 75% de probabilidad de otro aumento a 4.35% para fin de año.
Esta lectura tensa, puesta en contra de una Fed en espera y que enfrenta una presión política dótica, crea un potencial viento de cola estructural para el australiano.
Monitorear
- Reacción del AUD/USD al dato de inflación estadounidense del miércoles.
- Probabilidad de alza de tasa del RBA reajuste de precios a lo largo de la semana.
- El mineral de hierro y los precios de las materias primas como impulsores secundarios del AUD.
- China demanda señales, dada la exposición exportadora de Australia.
World’s second largest oil & gas company, Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM), announced results for the previous quarter before the market opened on Friday. Exxon Mobil stated that the revenue reached $84.344 billion for the quarter, which was below analyst estimate of $90.032 billion. Earnings per share was reported at $2.48 vs. $2.196 per share expected – beating Wall Street estimates for the first time since Q1 of 2023.
Company overview Founded: 1882 Headquarters: Texas, United States Number of employees: 62,300 (2022) Industry: Energy Key people: Darren Woods (chairman & CEO) CEO commentary ''Our consistent strategy and execution excellence across the business delivered industry-leading earnings and enabled us to return more cash to shareholders than our peers in 2023 1,'' Darren Woods, CEO of Exxon said in a press release to investors. ''These results demonstrate the fundamental improvements we’ve made to our business, reflecting our progress in high-grading our portfolio through investments in advantaged projects and select divestments, while, at the same time, driving a higher level of efficiency and effectiveness throughout the business. The foundation of our success comes from the resiliency, hard work and commitment of our people. As I reflect on our industry-leading results over the past year, I have a great sense of pride in what our people accomplished,'' Woods concluded.
Stock reaction There stock was up by just under 1% during the trading day on Friday, trading at around $103.38 a share. Stock performance 5 day: +0.29% 1 month: +0.65% 3 months: -4.16% Year-to-date: +3.32% 1 year: -7.70% Exxon Mobil stock price targets TD Cowen: $115 UBS Group: $132 Redburn Atlantic: $119 Mizuho: $117 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $127 Royal Bank of Canada: $120 Sandford C. Bernstein: $140 Truist Financial: $131 Jefferies Financial Group: $145 Morgan Stanley: $134 Bank of America: $150 Wells Fargo & Company: $130 Redburn Partners: $105 HSBC: $116 Piper Sandler: $127 Exxon Mobil Corporation is the 20th largest company in the world with a market cap of $412.82 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
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Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Exxon Mobil Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Big tech earnings continue this week with three more of the Magnificent seven in Amazon, Meta and Apple due to report Q4 earnings after the US close on Thursday. So far, we’ve had mixed results from the first three Mag 7 tech stocks, none of them impressed stockholders much, with Tesla, Microsoft and Alphabet all down post earnings to varying degrees, will this new batch turn things around? AMAZON Amazon’s cost-cutting efforts look like they begin to pay off with analysts predicting a significant jump in earnings as compared to a year ago.
Earnings are forecast at 80 cents per share for Q4 2023 versus 3 cents a year ago. Revenue is also expected to jump to $166 billion which is about $17 billion more than for the same period a year ago. Another good sign for the bulls is that Amazon has a good track record with earnings beating estimates every quarter of the last fiscal year.
META Meta comes into today’s earnings after a stellar 2023 where the stock price increased by 194% on the back of the company cutting costs and seeing an increase in users and engagement. Investors and analysts are expecting big things in the latest earnings with consensus calling for earnings of $4.93 per share up from $1.76 a year ago, with revenues of just over $39 billion. Two big parts of the business that will be of extra importance to investors and the reaction in stock price will be Meta’s AI efforts and their growth in China, which has become a growing source of revenue for the company.
APPLE Apple along with Tesla has been one of the Magnificent 7 laggards with the stock price down around 4% YTD. A lukewarm response from investors to their flagship Vision Pro and waning demand for iPhones from China weighing on the stock price. Despite this AAPL is expected to report notably stronger earnings than a year ago, with a consensus of $2.10 per share for Q4 2023, an increase from $1.88 a year ago.
Revenue is projected at $118 billion, a $1 billion increase from Q4 2022. Investors will be focusing on the performance of Apple Services, plans for the Vision Pro and how sales are performing in China. If Apple can allay investors’ fears and provide guidance showing that the Chinese market is solid especially, some of the concerns that have seen the stock down so far this year could be eased.
Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) posted Q4 2023 earnings results before the opening bell on Wall Street on Tuesday. The largest pharmaceutical company in the world reported revenue of $9.353 billion (up by 28% year-over-year) vs. $8.946 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) also topped estimates at $2.49 vs. $2.296 per share.
EPS grew by 19% vs. Q4 2022. Eli Lilly expects to achieve revenue of between $40.4 billion and $41.6 billion in 2024.
EPS expected to reach $12.20 to $12.70 per share. Company overview Founded: 1876 Headquarters: Indianapolis, Indiana, United States Number of employees: 39,000 (2022) Industry: Pharmaceutical Key people: David A. Ricks (Chair, President, & CEO), Anat Ashkenazi (CFO) CEO commentary "2023 was a year of tremendous achievement for Lilly, which delivered life-changing medicines to more patients than ever before resulting in strong revenue growth," David A.
Ricks, company CEO, said in a press release. "We advanced our pipeline of new medicines for serious diseases and created new partnerships and innovative ways of collaborating to add to that pipeline. Lilly invested in the quality, reliability and resilience of our supply chain with new advanced manufacturing plants and lines in the U.S. and in Europe. Entering 2024, we remain focused on the opportunity in front of us, to help solve some of the most challenging healthcare problems in the world and make life better for millions of patients," Ricks added.
Stock reaction The stock initialy rose by around 5% from $705 to $742 at the market open on Tuesday, reaching a new all-time high. Shares were flat at the end of trading, falling back down to $705.03 level. Stock performance 5 day: +9.31% 1 month: +12.72% 3 months: +17.52% Year-to-date: +20.95% 1 year: +107.56% Eli Lilly stock price targets Cantor Fitzgerald: $630 Wells Fargo & Company: $700 Barclays: $680 Morgan Stanley: $822 Truist Financial: $650 Deutsche Bank: $535 Citigroup: $675 UBS Group: $710 Bank of America: $700 Argus: $620 Credit Suisse Group: $580 BMO Capital Markets: $633 The Goldman Sachs Group: $470 Royal Bank of Canada: $580 Eli Lilly and Company is the 9th largest company in the world with a market cap of $669.28 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
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Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Eli Lilly and Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
US manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT), reported the latest financial results on Monday. CAT achieved revenue of $17.07 billion for the three months ending 31/12/23 (an increase of 3% year-over-year), which beat analyst estimate of $17.057 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) was reported at $5.23 (an increase of 35.84% year-over-year) vs. $4.765 per share expected.
The revenue for last year reached $61.1 billion, up by $59.4 billion the year prior. EPS also rose by 53.25% year-over-year to $21.21 per share. Company overview Founded: 1925 Headquarters: Irving, Texas, United States Number of employees: 109,100 (2022) Industry: Heavy equipment, Engines, Financial services Key people: Jim Umpleby (chairman & CEO) CEO commentary Jim Umpleby, CEO of Caterpillar commented on the latest results in a press release to investors: "I'm very proud of our global team's strong performance as they achieved the best year in our 98-year history, including record full-year sales and revenues, record adjusted profit per share and record ME&T free cash flow." "We remain committed to serving our customers, executing our strategy and investing for long-term profitable growth," Umpleby added.
Stock reaction Shares of Caterpillar rose by around 5% at the open, reaching a new all-time high. The stock ended the day up by 2% at $321.40 a share. Stock performance 5 day: +5.99% 1 month: +9.97% 3 months: +34.88% Year-to-date: +8.70% 1 year: +27.83% Caterpillar stock price targets Morgan Stanley: $270 Standford C.
Bernstein: $245 Stifel Nicolaus: $293 HSBC: $250 Tigress Financial: $295 The Goldman Sachs Group: $274 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $320 Bank of America: $297 Barclays: $250 Credit Suisse Group: $334 Wells Fargo & Company: $285 TD Cowen: $320 Robert W. Baird: $234 Citigroup: $270 Caterpillar Inc. is the 73rd largest company in the world with a market cap of $163.61 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''. GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Caterpillar Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) reported Q4 2023 financial results before the market open in the US on Wednesday. World’s largest aircraft manufacturer’s revenue reached $22.018 billion for the last three months of 2023, above analyst estimate of $21.184 billion. Revenue rose by 10% year-over-year.
Boeing reported a loss per share of -$0.47, which was less than -$0.777 loss per share expected. Company overview Founded: 1916 Headquarters: Arlington County, Virginia, United States Number of employees: 156,000 (2022) Industry: Aerospace Key people: Dave Calhoun (President and CEO), Larry Kellner (Chairman) CEO commentary "While we report our financial results today, our full focus is on taking comprehensive actions to strengthen quality at Boeing, including listening to input from our 737 employees that do this work every day," Dave Calhoun, CEO of Boeing said in a statement. "As we move forward, we will support our customers, work transparently with our regulator and ensure we complete all actions to earn the confidence of our stakeholders," Calhoun looked ahead as company battles recent 737 aircraft safety issues and tries to rebuild its reputation. Stock reaction The stock took off on Wednesday after dropping to its lowest level since 17/11/2023 the day before.
Shares were up 5.29%, trading at $211.04 a share. Stock performance 5 day: -1.44% 1 month: -13.48% 3 months: +11.44% Year-to-date: -19.04% 1 year: -1.73% Boeing price targets Bank of America: $225 Susquehanna: $279 Wells Fargo & Company: $225 UBS Group: $315 Barclays: $235 Stifel Nicolaus: $265 Royal Bank of Canada: $275 Deutsche Bank: $270 Morgan Stanley: $220 Citigroup: $271 TD Cowen: $260 Jefferies Financial Group: $275 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $245 The Boeing Company is the 104th largest company in the world with a market cap of $127.67 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''. GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: The Boeing Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
It’s set to be another busy week of US earnings with The Coca-Cola Company, Shopify Inc., Airbnb Inc., Deere & Company and more expected to announce the latest earnings results. First up, US computer networking company Arista Networks Inc. (NYSE: ANET) released the latest results after the closing bell on Monday. The company achieved revenue of $1.54 billion for Q4 2023, narrowly beating Wall Street estimate of $1.534 billion.
Revenue was up by 20.8% year-over-year. Earnings per share (EPS) was reported at $2.08, which was above analyst estimate of $1.704 per share. EPS was up by 47.51% from Q4 2022.
Full year revenue was up by 33.8% from 2022 at $5.860 billion. EPS reached $6.94 per share. Company overview Founded: 2004 Headquarters: Santa Clara, California, United States Number of employees: 3,612 (2022) Industry: Networking hardware Key people: Jayshree Ullal (CEO and Chairperson), Andy Bechtolsheim (Founder and Chief Architect), Chantelle Breithaupt (CFO) CFO commentary "I am truly honoured to be a part of the leadership team that will drive Arista 2.0 products and technology for enterprise, cloud and AI customers.
As we enter 2024, we remain focused on satisfying their most demanding requirements with our compelling, innovative networking solutions," CFO of Arista Networks, Chantelle Breithaupt said in a press release. Stock reaction There was no major movement in share price on Monday before the latest results were announced. The stock was trading at $280.88 a share, down by 0.56%.
Shares fell by around 6% in the after-hours trading. Stock performance 5 day: +2.90% 1 month: +11.45% 3 months: +33.57% Year-to-date: +19.26% 1 year: +106.53% Arista Networks stock price targets Wells Fargo & Company: $310 JMP Securities: $325 KeyCorp: $287 Melius Research: $300 Morgan Stanley: $272 Citigroup: $300 The Goldman Sachs Group: $248 Needham & Company LLC: $235 Piper Sandler: $209 Rosenblatt Securities: $230 Bank of America: $225 Argus: $225 Barclays: $200 BNP Paribas: $210 Credit Suisse Group: $151 Arista Networks Inc. is the 178 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $87.38 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Arista Networks Inc. (NYSE: ANET) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''. GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Arista Networks Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap