Notícias de mercado & insights

Central Bank Interest Rates By Klavs Valters A central bank's interest rate is a rate at which it typically lends money to local banks. This interest rate is charged by nations’ central or federal banks on loan advances to control the money supply in the economy and the banking sector. Each central bank has its own annual schedule when announcing its rates.

In the trading world, it's prudent to keep a tab on these announcements as it impacts market volatility if there is a sudden interest rate rise or fall. These rates also have an impact on everyday life, as they often determine what you pay for borrowing money, as well as what the bank will pay you for saving money. Recent Rate Hikes The most recent rate hike came from the US Federal Reserve back in March 2018, when it increased its rates from 1.5% to 1.75%.

Additionally, the Federal Reserve also signalled its intention to further raise this rate in the future. This has been the sixth time the US Federal Reserve has raised its interest rates since the 2008 financial crisis. Bank of Canada increased its key interest rates back in January by 0.25% to 1.25% while quoting a number of upbeat news stories, including an economy that is running flat-out, healthy job gains, and the lowest unemployment rate in over 40 years.

This has been Bank of Canada's third rate hike since the summer of 2017, and the first time the overnight rate has been above 1% since 2009. Current Bank Interest Rates Central Bank Interest Rate Announcement Timetable for 2018 To keep up to date with other news announcements, visit our ‘Economic Calendar’ section on our website - https://www.gomarkets.com/au/economic-calendar/

By ​Deepta Bolaky “ Buy the Dips ” and “ Sell the Rallies ” are widely followed strategies by new or experienced traders. Buy-the-dip strategy is becoming increasingly popular based on the theory of market fluctuations. It takes into consideration that the market will eventually rally up at pre-dip prices at some point. “Nowadays, traders take advantage of market weakness and embrace it” An example of the “buy the dip” approach is the bull stock market where we have seen signs of rebound after a period of deep weakness.

Back in February, “buy the dip” was mentioned across various media channels and traders were desperate to find the bottom that would be the most profitable. This strategy will effectively work if traders can identity the transition from a bearish trend to a bullish one. US500 (S&P 500) Source: GO Markets MT4 Today, we will focus on the Bullish Hammer which is a pattern used to identity a bullish technical reversal.

The bullish hammer takes the form of a hammer – it consists of a “ long lower tail ” and a “ body ” with little or no upper wick. Generally, traders tend to see if the lower tail is twice or more than the body itself. The below screenshot gives you an indication of a “Hammer”.

When you see a “hammer” being formed after a downtrend, this is a sign of a potential reversal as the trading action suggests that the trend was heading downwards but manage to find meaningful buyers at a lower price driving the price higher on the close of the candle. As per the above picture, both the green and red hammer have bullish implications but the green indicates a slightly more bullish presence. Similarly, a shorter “lower tail” is interpreted as less bullish compared to a longer “lower tail”.

Put simply, the longer lower tail indicates a stronger presence of buyers. The inverted hammer is also an indication of a potential reversal. An inverted candle is found at the end of a downtrend and has similar criteria to the Hammer.

However, the inverted hammer indicates that buyers are stepping in, but sellers are still present. Main criteria of a Hammer or the Inverted Hammer: The tail should at least be twice the length on the body. The color of the body is not very important but it helps in identifying the strength of the bullish presence.

There should be no tail or a very little one above the body. Note: It is important to differentiate between a “Hammer” and a “Hanging Man”. Because the shape of both candle sticks is similar, traders might misinterpret the patterns.

The Hammer lies at the end of a downtrend where as the Hanging Man lies at the end of an uptrend hinting at a reversal of an upward trend. The hammer is a good indication of a potential reversal and can help traders in establishing the needed bottom to adopt the “Buy-the-dip” approach. However, alongside with the hammer, traders use other indications of price support to recognize the strength of a reversal.

It should be highlighted that this strategy is not a “guaranteed profitable strategy” and should be used wisely. Go Markets Pty Ltd

Forex is one of the heaviest news driven markets in the world. Major news announcements play such a critical role to the intraday volatility, which in turn create trading opportunities. Most of the time, particularly for the active traders, market volatility can present more trading opportunities.

So it stands to reason, all Forex traders should be very mindful of upcoming news announcements. Even if you are a position trader or someone who likes to hold your FX positions for the medium to long term, knowing what news is coming up is essential. Tracking the markets across the globe Using MT4 Genesis, the session map shows you the key trading times for the main 'fixes' around the world including Sydney, Tokyo, London and New York.

Trading around the major fixes is important for those who trade on an intraday timeframe. For example, it is important to note that the Australian session is first and it is often the quietest, unless of course there is a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rates announcements or even the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) can be enough to move the markets on a regular basis. Other than that, the Australian fix rarely moves the markets.

It is not until you get the crossover to the London session that volatility picks up. You can then expect more volatility when the London session meets the New York session. The session map shows a clear red line for your current time so you can see when volatility may pick up.

The best feature of the session map is the news markers. At the bottom of the session map window, you will see grey, orange and red markers, highlighting upcoming news announcements. Grey is low impact, orange is medium impact and red is high impact.

By hovering your mouse over the news markers (or left clicking on one), you can see: » what the announcement is; » the time is will be released; and » its expected impact. [embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=28uS8T7Ay9I[/embed] How many times have you had an open position rally significantly, to then have to scour the internet for a news item related to your currency pair? If you've been trading for any length of time, then probably too often. By applying the session map, you can see clearly what news is driving the spike.

Another great aspect of the session map is the ability to see your current open profit and loss at a glance. In addition, you have a host of other account details with one click, such as your: » balance; » equity; » floating P&L » margin in use; and » the amount of margin you have free. Applying session map is as easy as dragging it from the Expert Advisors folder straight on to your chart.

It’s that easy. Stay on top of the markets by using Connect and Analyse tools It’s been said that trading could be a lonely job, particularly if you’re trading on your own. While market action and price movements can definitely keep you on your toes, some people find it a bit isolating at some stage.

However, you can look at it as being on top of the world (or the markets, at least) as you need to keep tab of what’s happening across the globe. This is particularly true when trading the forex (FX) market as currencies tend to move pretty fast compared to equities. Using the Connect and Analyse tools in MT4 Genesis, you can be a step ahead already.

These tools will give you current and relevant information – breaking news, statistics and analysis – that you can use for your trading. These tools are readily available from within your GO Markets’ MT4 platform. Once the MT4 Genesis file has been run, the full suite of tools will be available from the Expert Advisors tab.

Simply left click and drag each tool on to the chart of your choice. Let’s have a look at the features of the Connect function. As a trader, you need to be in tune with market developments as well as current events and news that may impact the markets.

The Connect window will give you price action and technical updates on the relevant currency pairs. This is also where you can find news updates not only about the markets, but also general news. Monitoring the news is vital for your trading as big events can have a major impact on the markets.

For example, decisions and announcements from the US Federal Reserve are always being watched and monitored by traders because it could affect currency movements. Major decisions from the US Fed are notorious for having effects on other currencies. Using this feature, you can select a number of news providers that suit your information needs.

The Connect feature also has a calendar that informs you of all relevant upcoming announcements that may affect the FX market. The calendar highlights: » High-impact events » Medium-impact events » Low-impact events [embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oQoKmSFFDsE[/embed] Some of the high-impact events that usually generate big moves in the market include: » US non-farm payroll announcement » US Federal Reserve announcements » Retail sales data » Manufacturing data Another way to connect with the market and to make sure you’re on top of current developments is via the GO Markets website. Using this feature, you can do several things such as: » Open a new account » Deposit funds » Change the leverage on your account » Access current promotions or simply » Speak with one of the Go Markets’ team members.

Analyse tool The Analyse tool is also helpful if you want to do weekly, monthly or yearly review of your trading performance. As a trader you would like to know how you’re performing and you would like to keep track of some vital statistics including: » Account Balance » Profit » Profitability » Percentage return » Monthly return Sentiment indicator The sentiment indicator is another key feature that can be useful for your trading. Using this tool, you can identify the currency pairs you want to trade (or in your watch list) and see the bias towards long and short positions on those pairs.

This will give you a good appreciation of the overall market sentiment on a particular currency pair. For example, the falls in iron ore and oil prices are widely expected to have negative impact on commodity currencies including the Australian dollar. However, despite the negative sentiment, the Aussie dollar is still being supported at a healthy level. [embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4TVU8PnIaA[/embed] Using the sentiment indicator, you can see how other traders are ‘feeling’ about the Aussie dollar as it would be reflected on the number or percentage of long positions versus short positions.

Take advantage of the Connect and Analyse tools as they could make a big difference in your trading performance. The opinions and information conveyed in the GO Markets newsletter are the views of the author and are not designed to constitute advice. Trading Forex and CFD's is high risk.

Rom Revita | Sales Manager Rom is the Sales Manager at Go Markets Pty Ltd and manages the day-to-day running of the Sales, Support and Marketing teams. He has been with the company since 2013 and is also one of our two appointed Responsible Managers, helping to ensure that the company follows all AFSL regulatory requirements. Rom has extensive financial markets experience and originally comes from an equities & derivatives trading background.

He has served on the Trading & Sales Desk with several large broking houses, and now specialises in Margin FX and CFDs. Connect with Rom: [email protected]

As Brexit concerns continue to weigh heavy on Pound Sterling crosses, there's not much to discuss from a technical perspective. Evidence of an overall bearishness sentiment dominates the charts with a few corrective moves thrown in for good measure. However, sifting through the layers of Sterling sameness, I uncovered something interesting relating to the GBPJPY, which might provide some trading opportunities longer-term.

First, taking a look at a daily chart above, notice we are hovering around the same price region as we were in August last year. Could this mean the pair is due for a change in direction? Perhaps.

What I find more intriguing is that for the past five years, August has been predominantly bearish for the GBPJPY pair when compared to other months. This seasonality chart from Bloomberg shows this more clearly. So how does this relate to longer-term trading opportunities?

If we are to believe that August is typically a bearish month, then we would be naturally inclined to seek short trades, and according to the point and figure chart below, I think I may have found one. Keep in mind that the seasonality data also suggests recoveries into December so we would need to trade with care. The bearish resistance line suggests we are currently in a downtrend with an increase in supply triggering a bearish trade signal as the price broke through the triple bottom support at 144.50.

At present, I am watching two downside targets should the fall in price exacerbate. These levels are located at 140.00 and 136.00 respectively. Alternatively, any upside move will need to re-test the 144.50 area which should act as resistance and also a rally above 146.00 to consider revising the overall trend.

Finally, if we study the short-term price action above on the hourly chart, it would seem the 100 Day Moving Average line in blue is helping to cap any bullish activity. The only time it has successfully managed to punch above the 100 MA this month has been to test the weekly pivot lines in black. If you are interested in other GBP analysis, I recently posted an article on GBPAUD here which I believe is another potential long-term opportunity.

For both these ideas, much will depend on Brexit certainty and how global trade talks progress in the coming weeks. By Adam Taylor CFTe This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions.

Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: Tradingview, Bloomberg

By ​Deepta Bolaky The intermarket relationships between commodities, currency, equity and bond markets are key in understanding the way the markets interact and move. Some markets will move with each other while others will move against each other. There are different types of bonds but for the purpose of this article, we will use the U.S Treasuries, which are considered one of the safest bonds.

The importance of the bond market The bond market is very powerful and helps traders gauge the performance of an economy. Given that bonds provide a fixed interest payment, investors tend to buy them when the economy or stock market is declining. Alternatively, during times where the economy is strong or when the stock market is doing well, investors are less likely to purchase bonds as they know they can find alternative investment options for higher returns.

Before we discuss how bonds can help investors in predicting the economy, it is important to understand the relationship between bond prices and yields together with its relationship with interest rates. This part can be confusing for new investors. Put simply, when the economy is expanding, investors move away from safe havens and take more risks.

In that case, demand for bonds decreases which cause a drop in bond prices. Given that the interest payments remain fixed, when the bond value decreases, bond yields will inevitably increase. This is so because yields are the interest payments divided by the par value.

Therefore, bond prices and yields are inversely correlated. Yields vs short and long-term interest rates Yields and interest rates are quite similar with the main difference being that each term are used to refer to different financial instruments. The yield curve is used to depict the relationship between the short-term and long-term interest rates.

Normally, investors demand more compensation to lock their money for longer periods. Therefore, we expect the yield curve to be an upward slopping curve. A steep curve indicates that investors are expecting future inflation and strong economic growth in the future.

Now, why is the US yield spread between the 2yr and 10yr treasury alarming? Such thin yield spread is a matter of concern because the US short and long-term yields are currently at its narrowest level in more than a decade. This means that a hawkish Fed have managed to increase short-term yields but not the longer-term yields.

In other words, demand for short-term bonds have decreased but not for longer term ones. There is a risk of an inverted yield curve if this situation persists. The flattening yield curve might therefore indicate that investors are not convinced that the economic growth will be maintained in the long run despite that the fact that the Fed’s are confident about the strength of its economy.

When an economy gains momentum, the curve normally tends to steepen not flatten. Even the Fed policy markets remained perplexed on why the curve is shrinking. Will another rate hike in September put a pressure on the yields spread?

Are the Federal Reserve going to halt its increase in interest rate if the spread tightens further? Does an inverted curve mean the same thing as it once did? As the Fed increases interest rates, investors need to eye the yield curve as a sign and remain cautious about the outlook for economic growth.

However, it is worth mentioning that based on previous inversion of yield curves where a recession has followed, a stock market rout did not occur right away. It actually jumped amid the turbulence.

Apple is the first company on this planet to reach a $1 Trillion Market value, each year continuing to release brand new innovative products including the latest iPhone to hit shelves. There is no doubt that Apple is the technology king of this generation given its following, constant growth, and company profits. However, can it maintain its innovation and high market value over the next ten years? ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- We all know that every technology product has a life cycle.

Think about this: 30 years ago your family might get very excited when purchasing a new television, but are you still as enthusiastic if you buy a new TV today? No, because on the one hand, the technology is a lot cheaper and commonplace, and on the other, the notion of refining this product has arguably reached its ceiling. After Television, PCs and digital cameras also can’t escape from the same fate.

Once sold at high prices with premium product positioning, I still remember my first PC which cost around USD 2000, and even this was considered low in the 1990‘s. How about now? PC sales in 2017 have dropped to 263m, which is even less than the sales of iPhone 1 in 2007. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may not have noticed, but coinciding with Apple reaching a $1 Trillion, value, the two major suppliers for iPhone components——Sunny Optical Ltd (Listed in Hong Kong) & LARGAN Precision Ltd (listed in Taiwan) are both experiencing price shocks in the stock market.

Let me first briefly introduce this two companies. LARGAN Precision is a camera producer and provides five lenses for each iPhone. Its stock price has increased 1692% in the last decade.

Sunny Optical became camera lens model supplier for iPhone since 2007. After ten years, its stock price increased insanely 13068%! These miraculous returns are all based on the developing phase of smartphones.

However, the Smart Phone concept appears to be transitioning to its Mature Phase, and eventually, declining Phase. In the 4th Quarter of 2017, the total sales of the Smart Phone market have dropped for the first time. You'll notice from the chart that every smartphone company value fell, not just Apple and Samsung.

Regarding technology, Apple had already left the “Iron Throne” years ago. In the smartphone chips producing area, only two companies (LARGAN & Samsung) has achieved current Human Limit ——7nm (the thinner the chip, the harder for human technology to achieve) Only one company (Samsung) is willing to put money into R&D and pursue the impossible——3nm. Why has everyone else already given up? (which also means that the iPhone in the next few years will likely see little to no significant improvement, except the size, colour, and Price) The smartphone product is not far away from its tech limit.

It's perhaps not worthwhile to invest loads of money into R&D anymore. Alternatively, it might be better off to move their R&D forces to the next generational products, for example, GPU, VR, Drone, Artificial intelligence, or something even beyond our imagination at the moment. It is still too early to say whether Apple can keep its leading position in next 10 years, let’s wait and see.

By Lanson Chen – Analyst Lanson Chen @LansonChen This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk.

Sources: Statista, Apple, Google