Notícias de mercado & insights
Mantenha-se à frente dos mercados com insights de especialistas, notícias e análise técnica para orientar suas decisões de negociação.
Os dados de inflação dos EUA na quarta-feira são a peça central da semana, mas com o petróleo se aproximando das máximas de sete meses, o sentimento do Bitcoin (BTC) mudando e o dólar australiano em máximos de três anos, os comerciantes têm muito o que ver na próxima semana.
Fatos rápidos
- A taxa de inflação dos EUA (fevereiro) é o principal evento binário para redução de preços e direção de ações.
- O petróleo Brent está sendo negociado em torno de USD 82—84/BBL, perto de máximas de sete meses, com um prêmio de risco geopolítico de $4 a $10 decorrente das tensões Irã/Ormuz.
- O Bitcoin está sendo negociado acima de USD 70.000 em 6 de março, uma possível mudança de tendência se persistir durante a semana.
Estados Unidos: inflação em foco
A leitura da inflação nos EUA no mês passado mostrou que os preços subiram 2,4% em relação ao ano anterior, ainda bem acima da meta de 2% do Fed.
A taxa de inflação de fevereiro, prevista para quarta-feira, será examinada em busca de sinais de que o repasse tarifário ou o aumento dos custos de energia estão empurrando os preços para cima, ou se a lenta queda ainda está intacta.
A reunião do FOMC de março, de 17 a 18 de março, agora tem um preço de apenas 4,7% de probabilidade de um corte. Uma impressão de inflação acima do esperado nesta semana poderia potencialmente elevar ainda mais as expectativas de redução das taxas.
Uma leitura mais suave abre as portas para novos cortes de preços e possível alívio em ativos de risco.
Datas importantes
- Taxa de inflação dos EUA (CPI de fevereiro): quarta-feira, 11 de março, às 12h30 (AEDT)
Monitor
- Divergência entre inflação básica e global como evidência de repasse tarifário nos preços dos bens.
- Sensibilidade de rendimento de tesouraria de 2 e 10 anos à impressão.
- Direção do USD e reprecificação do FedWatch antes da decisão do FOMC de 18 de março.
Óleo: elevado e sensível a eventos
Atualmente, o Brent está sendo negociado em torno de USD 83—85 por barril, com uma faixa de 52 semanas variando de $58,40 a $85,12, refletindo o movimento dramático desencadeado pelo conflito no Oriente Médio.
Analistas estimam que o prêmio de risco geopolítico já incorporado ao petróleo é de USD 4 a $10 por barril, e as previsões médias do Brent para 2026 foram elevadas para USD 63,85/BBL, ante USD 62,02 em janeiro.
O Short-Term Energy Outlook da EIA prevê que o Brent tenha uma média de $58/bbl em 2026, bem abaixo do preço à vista atual.
A diferença entre o spot e a linha de base da previsão pode ser uma estrutura útil para os traders nesta semana: qualquer sinal de desescalada do Oriente Médio poderia rapidamente fechar essa lacuna.
Monitor
- Desenvolvimentos do Estreito de Ormuz e quaisquer sinais diplomáticos das negociações nucleares com o Irã.
- Dados semanais do inventário de petróleo da EIA.
- O petróleo está de acordo com as expectativas de inflação e se isso muda a postura do banco central.
- Desempenho patrimonial do setor de energia em relação ao mercado mais amplo.
Bitcoin: relógio de sentimentos
O BTC vem tentando se estabilizar após uma correção brutal de 53% nas últimas 17 semanas, alimentada pela escalada das tensões geopolíticas e por novas preocupações tarifárias.
No entanto, ontem houve um salto de 8% acima de $72.000, e o “índice de medo e ganância” criptográfico saltou para 29 (medo), de menos de 20 (medo extremo), onde está há mais de um mês, indicando uma possível mudança de sentimento.
Uma impressão de inflação dos EUA mais fria do que o esperado na quarta-feira pode fornecer mais combustível para a fuga; uma impressão a quente corre o risco de potencialmente puxar o BTC de volta abaixo do nível de USD 70.000 que acabou de recuperar.
Monitor
- A inflação imprime a reação na quarta-feira como o principal macrocatalisador da mudança.
- Qualquer rotação em altcoins seguindo a força do BTC.
- Dados de entrada/saída de ETF como confirmação da participação institucional.
AUD/USD: Hawkish RBA encontra ventos contrários geopolíticos
O australiano está negociando perto de máximos de mais de três anos e caminhando para seu quarto ganho mensal consecutivo, um aumento de mais de 6% no acumulado do ano, tornando-se a moeda do G10 com melhor desempenho em 2026.
O motorista é uma clara divergência política. A governadora do RBA, Michele Bullock, sinalizou que a reunião de política de março está “ao vivo” para um possível aumento da taxa e alertou que um choque no preço do petróleo causado pelas tensões com o Irã poderia reacender as pressões inflacionárias domésticas.
Os preços de mercado agora sugerem cerca de 28% de chance de um aumento de 25 pontos base na próxima reunião, enquanto os preços totais serão reduzidos até maio, e cerca de 75% de chance de outro aumento para 4,35% até o final do ano.
Essa leitura agressiva, contra um Fed suspenso e enfrentando uma pressão política dovish, cria um potencial vento favorável estrutural para o australiano.
Monitor
- Reação do AUD/USD aos dados de inflação dos EUA de quarta-feira.
- Probabilidade de reavaliação da probabilidade de aumento da taxa de RBA ao longo da semana.
- Preços de minério de ferro e commodities como fatores secundários do AUD.
- Sinais de demanda da China, dada a exposição à exportação da Austrália.
FX traders have a bumper week of major economic announcements to navigate, with markets in a holding pattern awaiting the pivotal January Federal Reserve meeting, adding to that a Bank of England policy meeting, CPI readings out of Australia and Europe topped off by the US non-farm employment report. The Charts to Watch: AUDUSD – Aussie CPI and Chinese manufacturing PMI Since hitting a cycle low of 0.6525 and finding support at the December lows on January 17 AUDUSD has traded in a tight range between that support and 0.66 where multiple attempts to push higher have been rebuffed. This week’s data looks set to test that range, starting with Aussie CPI and to a lesser extent a Chinese manufacturing PMI on Wednesday. 0.66 will be the level to watch if we get a hot CPI reading, the support at 0.6525 to the downside if there is a cooler than expected reading.
GBPUSD – Bank of England policy meeting Cable has also spent the last week chopping around in a tight range, GBPUSD price action has been contained in a myriad of technical levels with resistance to the upside at 1.27720 and support at the lower 2024 trendline around 1.2650. At this weeks Bank of England meeting, the central bank is expected to gold rates steady but is will be the accompanying statement and presser where traders will look for clues as to when the bank may start cutting rates that will see FX markets re-price. US Dollar Index (DXY) – FOMC and NFP ahead DXY comes off a choppy week with a pivotal FOMC meeting on Thursday and the always market moving NFP on Friday to get things moving.
The 2024 advance in DXY has been capped by resistance at the 200-day moving average along with the July lows-October highs 50% fib level at 103.55. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at this meeting, with futures only pricing in a 2% chance of a cut, but it will be the messaging regarding the March meeting (where there is a 50-50 chance of a cut) that should see some volatility in the USD as markets re-price those odds. 103.55 will be the level to watch for the next move in DXY with a break above or below possibly signaling the next trend in DXY. The weeks full calendar at the link below: https://www.gomarkets.com/au/economic-calendar/
With FX markets being pushed and pulled by market participants betting on when the major central banks are going to start cutting rates (or not) FX traders have some important risk events that will influence those expectations to negotiate this week. CPI and retail sales headline in the US, Aussie traders have the January Jobs report and for Sterling traders, UK GDP figures. The charts to watch US Dollar Index (DXY) – CPI to sway market pricing of a March cut Recent strong employment and growth data out of the US has seen the market reprice significantly lower the chance of a Fed rate cut in the March meeting, with odds currently sitting at around 19%, from around 50% only a couple of weeks ago.
This week’s CPI will likely go a long way to settling market expectations on this. DXY has had a strong run up in 2024 so far as continued Fed pushback on rate cut expectations has supported the USD. Key levels to watch this week are the 100 day SMA to the upside which has capped further upside in the DXY over the last few sessions, and the 200 day SMA to the downside for support.
AUDUSD – Will jobs bounce back after December’s shocker Last Tuesdays RBA meeting saw no cut as expected but with a hawkish bias in the accompanying statement. This was a relief for AUDUSD bulls after a break lower of the support level at 0.6525 on Monday looked like a significant decline was ahead for this pair. The RBA has a dual mandate of inflation and employment to look after, so this week’s Jobs report will be closely watched after the big miss in December’s figure.
The once support of 0.6525 has now established as resistance paired with the 100 Day SMA and will be a key level to watch with this week’s data as to the Aussies next move. The weeks full calendar at the link below: https://www.gomarkets.com/au/economic-calendar/
US tobacco and cigarette company Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE: PM) released the latest financial results for Q4 and 2023 full year before opening bell in the US on Thursday. The company reported revenue of $9 billion for the quarter, which was just shy of $9.008 billion expected. Earnings per share (EPS) fell short of analyst estimates at $1.36 vs. $1.449 per share expected.
Full year revenue and EPS reached $35.2 billion and $5.02 per share respectively. Company overview Founded: 1874 Headquarters: Stamford, Connecticut, United States Number of employees: 79,800 (2022) Industry: Tobacco Key people: André Calantzopoulos (Executive Chairman), Jacek Olczak (CEO) CEO commentary "Our business delivered a strong finish to 2023 and we achieved a number of remarkable milestones on our path to becoming a smoke-free company," Jacek Olczak, CEO of Philip Morris said after earnings. "We are entering 2024 with strong momentum, and we expect it will be another year of excellent performance underpinned by an acceleration in organic smoke-free net revenue and profit growth," Olczak added. Stock reaction Shares were down by 2.68% at the end of Thursday’s session at $88.99 a share – the lowest since October 2023.
Stock performance 5 day: -4.57% 1 month: -6.43% 3 months: -0.86% Year-to-date: -5.37% 1 year: -12.73% Philip Morris stock price targets UBS Group: $86.50 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $115 Redburn Atlantic: $95 Jefferies Financial Group: $105 Stifel Nicolaus: $114 Morgan Stanley: $113 Bank of America: $111 Barclays: $110 Citigroup: $117 Philip Morris International Inc. is the 94th largest company in the world with a market cap of $138.19 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE: PM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
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On Friday, US beverage and food company PepsiCo Inc. (NASDAQ: PEP) announced the latest financial results before the market opened. The New York based company reported revenue of $27.85 billion for Q4 2023, falling short of Wall Street analyst estimate of $28.4 billion. Revenue was down from $27.996 billion from the same period in 2022.
Earnings per share (EPS) reached $1.78 (up by 6.5% year-over-year) vs. $1.722 per share expected. PepsiCo achieved full year revenue of $91.471 billion. Full year EPS reached $7.62 per share.
The company also announced a quarterly dividend of $1.265 per share. Company overview Founded: 1898 Headquarters: Donald M. Kendall Sculpture Gardens, Harrison, New York, U.S.
Number of employees: 315,000 (2022) Industry: Beverages, Food processing Key people: Ramon Laguarta (Chairman & CEO), Hugh Johnston (Vice Chairman & CFO) CEO commentary "We are pleased with our results for 2023 as we successfully navigated another year of elevated levels of inflation, macroeconomic volatility, geopolitical tensions and international conflicts. Our results demonstrate that the investments we have made to strengthen our business and advance our pep+ agenda are working: it’s evident in how we are innovating, operating, empowering our teams, building our brands, and competing in the marketplace," CEO of PepsiCo, Ramon Laguarta said in a statement to investors. Stock reaction The stock was down by 2.80% during Friday's session, trading at $168.99 a share.
Stock performance 5 day: -1.37% 1 month: +0.81% 3 months: +1.02% Year-to-date: -0.71% 1 year: -4.30% PepsiCo stock price targets Wedbush: $195 Barclays: $179 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $176 Jefferies Financial Group: $203 DZ Bank: $187 Wells Fargo & Company: $172 Morgan Stanley: $190 Argus: $186 Royal Bank of Canada: $180 Citigroup: $180 Evercore ISI: $185 Deutsche Bank: $195 UBS Group: $205 Credit Suisse Group: $182 PepsiCo Inc. is the 47th largest company in the world with a market cap of $231.86 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade PepsiCo Inc. (NASDAQ: PEP) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
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Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: PepsiCo Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
The largest steel producer company in the United States, Nucor Corporation (NYSE: NUE), announced the latest financial results after the market closed in Wall Street on Monday. The company achieved revenue of $7.705 billion in the fourth quarter of last year, above analyst estimate of $7.635 billion. Earnings per share was reported at $3.16, also higher than $2.921 per share expected.
Company overview Founded: 1905 Headquarters: Charlotte, North Carolina, United States Number of employees: 31,000 (2022) Industry: Steel Key people: Leon J. Topalian (President, & CEO), John H. Walker (Executive Chairman), James D.
Frias (CFO) CEO commentary "The Nucor team delivered a strong finish to 2023, which represents the third-most profitable year in our Company's history. Nucor's strategy to grow our core steelmaking capabilities and expand beyond into steel-adjacent business lines continues to deliver strong results," Leon J. Topalian, CEO of the steel company said in a press release to investors. "Over the past four years, Nucor has generated an average annual ROE of 33% and has returned approximately $9.7 billion to its shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
We remain optimistic that Nucor's best days are ahead of us, with a resilient U.S. economy and steel-intensive megatrends driving increased demand for our products. With our strong balance sheet and broad array of sustainable steel solutions, we believe Nucor is unparalleled with respect to its ability to leverage these market drivers for continued growth," Topalian added. Stock reaction The stock was up by 0.88% at market close on Monday, trading at $176.64 a share – the highest since 27/12/2023.
Shares rose by around 1% in the after-hours trading as the latest results were announced. Stock performance 5 day: +3.12% 1 month: +0.98% 3 months: +17.99% Year-to-date: +0.98% 1 year: +5.64% Nucor stock price targets UBS Group: $210 JP Morgan & Chase: $158 Morgan Stanley: $154 Citigroup: $180 Credit Suisse Group: $167 BNP Paribas: $191 The Goldman Sachs Group: $161 Nucor Corporation is the 427th largest company in the world with a market cap of $43.14 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Nucor Corporation (NYSE: NUE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
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Chinese electric vehicle company, NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO), hasn’t had the best start to 2024 with the stock plummeting by 37.05% year-to-date. That’s despite the company signing battery-swap agreements with other Chinese automakers, including, Changan Automobile, Geely Group, JAC Group and Chery Automobile. Back in the December, NIO also announced a $2.2 billion investment from Abu Dhabi.
You can read more about it here. On Thursday, the company released the latest delivery numbers for January, which had a rare positive effect on the share price. NIO delivered 10,055 cars last month, which was up by 18.2% from January 2023.
The company has delivered 459,649 vehicles in total as of 31/1/2024. The EV maker is expected to announce the latest financial results for the fourth quarter on around 21/3/2024. Company overview Founded: November 2014 Headquarters: Shanghai, China Number of employees: 20,000+ (2023) Industry: Automotive Key people: William Li (CEO), Lihong Qin (President), Wei Feng (CFO) Stock reaction The stock was up by 1.60% at the end of trading day on Thursday at $5.71 a share and is currently trading at the lowest level since June 2020.
Stock performance 5 day: -5.46% 1 month: -30.96% 3 months: -26.70% Year-to-date: -37.05% 1 year: -52.26% NIO stock price targets Mizuho: $15 Deutsche Bank: $16 CLSA: $14 Sanford C. Bernstein: $8 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $10.50 Citigroup: $19.20 UBS Group: $15 Nomura: $7.50 Barclays: $8 Morgan Stanley: $12 NIO Inc. is the 1367th largest and 5th largest electric vehicle company in the world with a market cap of $11.91 billion. You can trade NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: NIO Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap