Notícias de mercado & insights
Mantenha-se à frente dos mercados com insights de especialistas, notícias e análise técnica para orientar suas decisões de negociação.
Multi-Timeframe (MTF) analysis is not just about checking the trend on the daily before trading on the hourly; ideally, it involves examining and aligning context, structure, and timing so that every trade is placed with purpose.
When done correctly, MTF analysis can filter market noise, may help with timing of entry, and assist you in trading with the trending “tide,” not against it.
Why Multi-Timeframe Analysis Matters
Every setup exists within a larger market story, and that story may often define the probability of a successful trade outcome.
Single-timeframe trading leads to the trading equivalent of tunnel vision, where the series of candles in front of you dominate your thinking, even though the broader trend might be shifting.
The most common reason traders may struggle is a false confidence based on a belief they are applying MTF analysis, but in truth, it’s often an ad-hoc, glance, not a structured process.
When signals conflict, doubt creeps in, and traders hesitate, entering too late or exiting too early.
A systematic MTF process restores clarity, allowing you to execute with more conviction and consistency, potentially offering improved trading outcomes and providing some objective evidence as to how well your system is working.
Building Your Timeframe Hierarchy
Like many effective trading approaches, the foundation of a good MTF framework lies in simplicity. The more complex an approach, the less likely it is to be followed fully and the more likely it may impede a potential opportunity.
Three timeframes are usually enough to capture the full picture without cluttering up your chart’s technical picture with enough information to avoid potential contradiction in action.
Each timeframe tells a different part of the story — you want the whole book, not just a single chapter.
Scalpers might work on H1-M15-M5, while longer-term traders might prefer H4-H1-H15.
The key is consistency in approach to build a critical mass of trades that can provide evidence for evaluation.
When all three timeframes align, the probability of at least an initial move in your desired direction may increase.
An MTF breakout will attract traders whose preference for primary timeframe may be M15 AND hourly, AND 4-hourly, so increasing potential momentum in the move simply because more traders are looking at the same breakout than if it occurred on a single timeframe only.
Applying MTF Analysis
A robust system is built on clear, unambiguous statements within your trading plan.
Ideally, you should define what each timeframe contributes to your decision-making process:
- Trend confirmed
- Structure validated
- Entry trigger aligned
- Risk parameters clear
When you enter on a lower timeframe, you are gaining some conviction from the higher one. Use the lower timeframe for fine-tuning and risk control, but if the higher timeframe flips direction, your bias must flip too.
Your original trading idea can be questioned and a decision made accordingly as to whether it is a good decision to stay in the trade or, as a minimum action, trail a stop loss to lock in any gains made to date.
Putting MTF into Action
So, if the goal is to embed MTF logic into your trade decisions, some step-by-step guidance may be useful on how to make this happen
1. Define Your Timeframe Stack
Decide which three timeframes form your trading style-aligned approach.
The key here is that as a starting point, you must “plant your flag” in one set, stick to it and measure to see how well or otherwise it works.
Through doing this, you can refine based on evidence in the future.
One tip I have heard some traders suggest is that the middle timeframe should be at least two times your primary timeframe, and the slowest timeframe at least four times.
2. Build and Use a Checklist
Codify your MTF logic into a repeatable routine of questions to ask, particularly in the early stages of implementing this as you develop your new habit.
Your checklist might include:
- Is the higher-timeframe trend aligned?
- Is the structure supportive?
- Do I have a valid trigger?
- Is risk clearly defined?
This turns MTF from a concept into a practical set of steps that are clear and easy to action.
3. Consider Integrating MTF Into Open Trade Management
MTF isn’t just for entries; it can also be used as part of your exit decision-making.
If your higher timeframe begins showing early signs of reversal, that’s a prompt to exit altogether, scale out through a partial close or tighten stops.
By managing trades through the same multi-timeframe approach that you used to enter, you maintain logical consistency across the entire lifecycle of the trade.
Final Action
Start small. Choose one instrument, one timeframe set, and one strategy to apply it to.
Observe the clarity it adds to your decisions and outcomes. Once you see a positive impact, you have evidence that it may be worth rolling out across other trading strategies you use in your portfolio.
Final Thought
Multi-Timeframe Analysis is not a trading strategy on its own. It is a worthwhile consideration in ALL strategies.
It offers a wider lens through which you see the market’s true structure and potential strength of conviction.
Through aligning context, structure, and execution, you move from chasing an individual group of candles to trading with a more robust support for a decision.
Natural Gas price action has had an amazing two years, with the usually pretty boring commodity showing extreme volatility pushing it to all time highs before a dramatic collapse seeing it back where it started in 2020. Like all the energy complex, Oil being a good example, the start of the Covid panic saw wild price fluctuations as traders came to terms with lockdowns and the related slowdowns, followed by unprecedented Central Bank stimulus. But the real push higher in Natural Gas came at the start of the war in Ukraine and the loss of Russian Gas for European suppliers, with fears of a cold winter with a much constrained supply of gas seeing the price spike to all-time highs.
But instead of a long cold gas starved winter the northern hemisphere experienced higher-than-average temperatures which meant the gas supply crunch wasn’t as dire as feared which sent liquefied natural gas prices tumbling to pre covid levels from a record all-time high. With Natural gas back to historical support levels there is a technical and fundamental case for a move higher in the near future. From a technical perspective, on a daily chart we can see that Natural Gas has found strong support since February around the 2.09 level, an historic level it found support at before the pandemic as well, we can also wee a rounding bottom pattern forming on a daily chart, this is considered one of the most reliable chart patterns in technical analysis.
According to a recent interview with Bloomberg by Yukio Kani, the chairman and CEO of Jera Co which is the worlds largest buyer of LNG, he is expecting a price spike again in natural gas this year due to Chinese re-opening demand, unusually war Northern Hemisphere weather increasing energy demand for cooling purposes and increased import capacity in Europe and China. Certainly, a market worth watching going forward!
US technology giant Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) released the latest financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2023, after the market closed in the US on Tuesday. Company overview Founded: April 4, 1975 Headquarters: Washington, United States Number of employees: 221,000 (2022) Industry: Information technology Key people: Satya Nadella (executive chairman and CEO), Brad Smith (vice chairman and president), Bill Gates (technical adviser) The results Microsoft reported revenue that beat analyst estimates at $52.857 billion (up by 7% year-over-year) vs. $51.019 billion. Earnings per share also topped expectations at $2.45 per share (up by 10% year-over-year) vs. $2.239 per share estimate.
Company commentary Satya Nadella, chairman and CEO of Microsoft commented on the rise of AI and highlighted company’s focus on the software: ''The world's most advanced AI models are coming together with the world's most universal user interface - natural language - to create a new era of computing.'' ''Across the Microsoft Cloud, we are the platform of choice to help customers get the most value out of their digital spend and innovate for this next generation of AI.'' Amy Hood, executive vice president and CFO highlighted Microsoft Cloud’s revenue for the quarter which increased year-over-year: ''Focused execution by our sales teams and partners in this dynamic environment resulted in Microsoft Cloud revenue of $28.5 billion, up 22% (up 25% in constant currency) year-over-year.'' Share of Microsoft were down by -2.25% on Tuesday at $275.33 before the results were announced. The stock rose by around +4% in the after-hours trading as results beat estimates. Stock performance 1 month: +0.07% 3 months: +13.79% Year-to-date: +14.84% 1 year: +1.92% Microsoft price targets Bank of America: $320 Citigroup: $332 Jefferies: $325 Goldman Sachs: $325 Cowen & Co.: $300 Microsoft Corporation is the 3 rd largest company in the world with a market cap of $2.050 trillion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Microsoft Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, TipRanks, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia
US food giant The Kraft Heinz Company (NASDAQ: KHC) reported Q1 financial results before the market open on Wall Street on Wednesday. The company topped both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the quarter. Company overview • Founded: July 2, 2015 • Headquarters: Chicago, Illinois and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States • Number of employees: 37,000 (2022) • Industry: Food • Key people: Alex Behring (Chairman), John Cahill (Vice chairman), Miguel Patricio (CEO), Paulo Basilio (CFO) The results Kraft Heinz reported revenue of $6.489 billion vs. $6.394 billion expected.
Revenues were up by 7.3% year-over-year. EPS reported at $0.68 per share (up by 7.9% year-over-year) vs. estimate of $0.597 per share. The company also announced a quarterly dividend of $0.40 per share.
CEO commentary "We delivered strong results in the first quarter of 2023, with net sales growth across both our North America and International zones that continues to be fueled by Foodservice, Emerging Markets, and U.S. Retail GROW platforms," Kraft Heinz CEO, Miguel Patricio said in a press release. "I am very proud of the entire Kraft Heinz team as we continue to deliver on what we can control by unlocking efficiencies and reinvesting in our brands and capabilities. Our team's continued focus on executing against the strategy is coming to fruition, but it's not time to declare victory just yet.
We remain committed to advancing our business transformation, and we are confident we have the right strategy in place to win with customers and consumers, and to deliver profitable growth and create value for our stockholders," Patricio concluded. The latest results had a positive impact on the stock. Shares were up by over +4% at $40.95 per share.
Stock performance 1 month: +5.28% 3 months: +1.33% Year-to-date: +0.91% 1 year: -5.17% Kraft Heinz price targets JP Morgan: $44 Mizuho Securities: $50 Berenberg Bank: $39 BNP Paribas: $39 Goldman Sachs: $43 The Kraft Heinz Company is the 318 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $50.46 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade The Kraft Heinz Company (NASDAQ: KHC) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: The Kraft Heinz Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, TipRanks, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia, Macrotrends
The Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) y/y was released at 6.3%, lower than the market forecast of 6.5% and from the previous data of 6.8%. With inflation growth on a clear downtrend following its peak of 8.4% in January 2023, this is likely to reduce the need for further rate increases from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The Australian cash rate is currently at 3.60% with the RBA anticipated to keep with the previous decision of holding rates steady next Tuesday (2nd May).
While the RBA has previously indicated that some further tightening may be needed to ensure that inflation returns to target, the decision to keep interest rates at 3.60% or comments regarding a pivot in future decisions could lead to further weakening in the AUDUSD. Following the release of the CPI y/y data, the AUDUSD traded lower, breaking out of the channel, and signaling a possible continuation of the downtrend since February 2023. Additionally, with the Ichimoku cloud acting as a resistance and indicating further downside potential, the AUDUSD could trade down to retest the support level of 0.6565.
Beyond the immediate support level, the next key support level is the previous swing low at the 0.64 price area. This move lower could be driven by a further recovery in strength on the DXY and if the RBA decides to hold interest rates at 3.60%.
Gold has always been one of the most popular and highly traded markets for CFD traders, especially recently as its price has risen to test its all-time highs. It’s easy to see why, Gold has been a store of value throughout history, and with CFDs it’s possible to take a position in this exciting market, whether you think the price will head up or down. In this CFD gold trading Article we will look at the following: How to use CFDs to trade gold Fundamental forces that drive the price of gold Technical strategies for trading gold CFDs How to use CFDs to trade gold CFDs or Contracts For Difference allow you to speculate on the price of gold, without owning the underlying asset (No gold vaults needed!) A spot gold CFD tracks the price of the spot market being the cleanest and most efficient way to speculate on the price of gold.
They also allow you to take a position in both directions, you would enter a buy (Long) positions if you believed the price will rise, or a sell (Short) position if you believe the price will fall. With Long positions you are looking to buy and sell at a higher price at a later time to profit on the trade. With a Short position you are selling with the view to buy back at a later time to profit on the trade.
At GO Markets we offer our clients the worlds most popular gold trading platform in Metatrader 4 and 5, another advantage to these CFD trading platforms is the ability to automate gold trading strategies. Other advantages to trading gold CFDs with GO Markets: Trade 23 hours a day, unlike an ETF or gold miner listed on a stock exchange that is only open while that stock exchange is open. Leverage – the margin required to open the trade will be a fraction of the face value of the position depending on what leverage your account is set to.
Flexibility in position sizing starting from 1 ounce ($1USD per point movement in gold) unlike gold futures which have rigid contract sizes. Rolling contract, no expiries such as in options or futures to worry about. To Enter a position in Metatrader, you would bring up a deal ticket by clicking “New Order” then select your position size, any Stop Loss or Take Profit levels you want the position to automatically close at and hit Buy or Sell.
As with any instrument, make sure you are familiar with the lot sizing. 1 standard lot in gold (XAUUSD) is 100 ounces, or $100 USD a point so make sure you set the volume to a level commensurate to your account size and risk appetite. Now, the next question is how you decide on a buy or sell, lets look at the fundamentals of what drives gold and some technical analysis you can use to answer this question. Fundamental forces that drive the price of gold While no one reason can be fully attributed to movements in the price of gold, there are an important few fundamental drivers that will influence the price of gold and whose relationship has been time tested.
None of these on their own should be used as a sole reason to enter a position, but having the fundamentals on your side will certainly give you an advantage. The main fundamental drivers in my experience are (not an exhaustive list by any means!) The gold price relationship to US bond yields Safe haven flows Central Bank buying Real Yields and Gold The inverse relationship between bond yields and the price of gold is well established, especially the real yield on the US 10 year bond. The reason for this mainly is because the real yield (the real yield is calculated by subtracting inflation expectations from the actual yield of the US 10 year government bond) is seen as the “risk free” rate on an investment, the higher the “risk free” rate is, the less attractive a non-yield paying asset like gold is.
As both gold and bonds are seen as safe havens, they are competing for the same investors. See the screenshot below to illustrate this point. The gold line is the price of gold, the black line is the inverted real yield of 10 year treasuries.
This chart stretches back 16 years, but the close relationship has gone back much longer than that. This chart is showing that historically, gold is expensive at the moment as compared to real yields as can be seen by the growing gap between the two recently, this interesting decoupling has been mainly caused by our second fundamental driver – Safe haven flows. Safe Haven Flows Geopolitical strife with war in Ukraine and doubts over the health of the global economy got things started with the surge we have seen in gold prices in the last 5 months, but things went into overdrive in March 2023 when Signature bank and Credit Suisse collapsed, bring into question the integrity of the banking system and massive safe haven flows into gold which has pushed the price to within touching distance of hitting all-time highs.
With the banking crisis seemingly under control (for now maybe?) gold has lost some momentum, but the fact it is holding around these elevated prices indicates some investors may not think the crisis is over just yet. Central Bank Buying Central banks are some of the biggest buyers of gold on the open market, and 2022 saw the most central bank buying of gold on record. Whatever the reasons for this, such massive amounts of buying would be seen as a bullish sign for the gold price (if it continues) Technical strategies for trading gold CFDs While having a good understanding of the fundamentals (in my opinion) is important to help you choose the best trades most traders will use a combination of technical analysis and fundamentals with the aim for higher probability outcomes in their trades.
Some traders will use technical analysis exclusively without any interest in the fundamental drivers using things such as RSI oscillators, support and resistance areas and trend lines solely to decide on their trade direction. Which option is best is solely up to the trader, their time frames for the trades and risk appetite, all can work, and all can fail neither option can be seen as “better” than the other, it all depends on the individual trader. Technical analysis is an art in itself and there is a lot to learn on this subject, I encourage anyone interested to research the many weird and wonderful technical analysis strategies that are documented online.
But let’s take a look at a couple of popular technical indicators that gold traders use to make their trades. Support and Resistance Support and resistance are one of the most widely used and accurate (when used correctly) technical indicators that can be used by traders. Support and Resistance areas are points in the market where the price is held from going lower (Support) or going higher (Resistance), these are areas where buyers or sellers are entering the market as they see value in the asset at that price.
These levels can last a long time, or be temporary and can be used to predict turn arounds in the market, or a break of these levels could indicate a further push in that direction. Lets take a look at the recent Gold chart for examples below: From the above you can see that there are areas that Gold will find its price supported. or upside resisted as buyers and sellers battle it out. These areas are very important to keep in mind when deciding on trade direction.
Trend Channels Another simple, but effective and popular Technical Analysis tool is trend channels. These channels are a common sight on the gold chart and can give the trader some confidence in levels that will provide support or resistance, or a break of these channels can indicate a trend change. Example of trend channels on gold below: While technical analysis is useful for gold, it can be difficult to spend the time analysing all the patterns that may form, in that regard GO Markets clients have access to Trading Central which automatically detect technical set ups for our traders to add to their decision making.
Trading Central can be accessed by account holders through their Client Portal. Trading Central Pattern example below: Hopefully this article has given you an interest to learn more about trading gold with CFDs. Fell free to contact the GO Markets team if you have any questions on trading gold CFDs and opening an account with us.
Gold has been one of the most popular and highly traded markets recently as price action in the precious metal has really come alive, rate hikes, the war in Ukraine and Bank Crises have all played a part in the fundamental reasons for gold price movements in the last 12 months. Let’s take a look at the chart to see these fundamental effects and how the technical are shaping up. Firstly, the macro picture of what fundamentals have done to the price of Gold are where it’s turning points have been.
The chart below shows the decline in the Gold Price during most of 2022 as the USD rallied strongly on the back of an aggressive Federal Reserve hiking cycle, this put downward pressure on gold where we can see it bottomed and found support around the 1617 level. Next was the talk of a Fed pivot, the market starting to price in the end of the Fed hiking cycle and a subsequent bear market in the USD which lifted Gold prices. After this mov retraced in Feb/Mar we then had the collapses of Signature bank and Credit Suisse, this saw the dynamics of Gold change from following interest rates and USD strength to being a bona fide safe haven and an explosive move up to where we are now, looking to test the all-time highs set back in 2020.
Zooming in on the technical, I believe Gold is still in a strong uptrend and will continue to benefit from safe haven flows while the left-over worries of the banking crisis still remain (is it really over?) but saying that it will find tough going above 2040 USD an ounce, as we can see from the forceful rejection at that price last week, without a further catalyst to push it though, such as another leg to the bank crisis or escalation in geopolitics events. The other Key level is 1805, the last swing low which can be seen as major support. If you believe the Gold bull story the way to play the long side is to avoid getting long above 2020 until a confirmed break of this major resistance level is confirmed and legging into longs everywhere above 1805, a break of that major support level would see the bears certainly in charge.
If you’re a Gold bear, Use the major resistance at 2020-2040 to your advantage, getting short and using that area as an exit if a confirmed break to the upside occurs.