US indices have a bumper session on the back of positive direction given from the Federal Reserve
GO Markets
29/8/2022
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US indices had a bumper day of trading as the Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 25 basis points. The Reserve is also expected to raise rates to between 1.75% and 2.00% by the end of the year, with 7 increases expected till the end of 2022. The Federal Reserve made it clear that they are doing their utmost to fight inflation.
Jerome Powell also indicated that the economy shouldn't need to enter into a recession. Whilst the Federal Reserve lowered economic projections for 2022 and increased inflation most of this had already been priced in. The Nasdaq finished the very strong session up 3.77% as tech stocks rebounded after initially selling down on the Federal Reserve’s announcement.
It was supported by the Dow Jones and the S&P500 which were up 1.55% and 2.24% respectively. In Europe, the FTSE had a solid day rising 1.62% and the DAX performed very well increasing by 3.76%. The Chinese stock market both in Hong Kong and on the mainland was also roaring yesterday on the back of a commitment from China’s State Council to sure up and introduce policies to boost its economy.
The CSI 300 index gained 4.3% and the Hang Seng index jumped 9.1%, its largest jump since 2008. This may provide some confidence for the region. Commodities Commodity prices continue their retreat from their highs a few weeks ago.
Brent Crude Oil continues to hover below 100 USD finishing the day at 97.96 USD a drop of 0.74%. Gold was able to hold its support level at 1917 USD per ounce and bounced after initially dropping below 1,900 USD due to the interest rate announcement. Natural gas continues to tighten its price range and increased by 2.80% Cryptocurrency Bitcoin had a high volume buying day as buyers stepped up and the price of BTC/USD increased by 4.83% to 41,202 USD.
Bitcoin remains rangebound however the volume increase indicates attention may be returning. Similar results occurred for Ethereum with the ETH/USD increasing by 5.60% to 2,766 USD. FOREX The USD was weak against most other currencies following the Federal Reserve's announcement.
The AUD had a strong day backed by its commodities moving up 1.29% against the USD. The EUR/USD and GBP/USD both reacted positively to Federal Reserve’s announcement, with them moving up 0.71% and 0.81% respectively. Against the CHF the USD was able to hold up relatively well at the 0.9400 level.
The market will likely continue to react to the news from the Federal Reserve as the week draws to an end.
The ASX 200 closed out the 2025 financial year on a high, reaching a new intra-month peak of 8,592 in June and within touching distance of the all-time record. The index delivered a 1.4% total return for the month, rounding off a strong final quarter with a 9.5% return and locking in a full-year gain of 13.8% — its best performance since 2021.This strong finish all came down to the postponement of the Liberation Day tariffs. From the April 7 lows through to the end of the financial year, the ASX followed the rest of the world. Mid-cap stocks were the standout performers, beating both large and small caps as investors sought growth opportunities away from the extremes of the market. Among the sectors, Industrials outperformed Resources, benefiting from more stable earnings and supportive macroeconomic trends tied to infrastructure and logistics.But the clear winner was Financials, which contributed an incredible 921 basis points to the overall index return. CBA was clearly the leader here, dominating everything with 457 basis points on its own. Westpac, NAB, and others also played a role, but nothing even remotely close to CBA. The Industrials and Consumer Discretionary sectors made meaningful contributions, adding 176 and 153 basis points, respectively. While Materials, Healthcare, and Energy all lagged, each detracting around 45 to 49 basis points. Looking at the final quarter of the financial year, Financials were by far the biggest player again, adding 524 basis points — more than half the quarter’s total return of 9.5%. Apart from a slight drag from the Materials sector, all other parts of the market made positive contributions. Real Estate, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary followed behind as key drivers. Once again, CBA was the largest individual contributor, adding 243 basis points in the quarter, while NAB, WBC, and Macquarie Group added a combined 384 basis points. On the other side of the ledger, key underperformers included BHP, CSL, Rio Tinto, Treasury Wine Estates, and IDP Education, which all weighed on quarterly performance.One of the most defining features of the 2025 financial year was the dominance of price momentum as a market driver — something we as traders must be aware of. Momentum strategies far outpaced more traditional, fundamental-based approaches such as Growth, Value, and Quality. The most effective signal was a nine-month momentum measure (less the most recent month), which delivered a 31.2% long-short return. The more commonly used 12-month price momentum factor was also highly effective, returning 23.6%. By contrast, short-term reversals buying last month’s losers and selling last month’s winners was the worst-performing approach, with a negative 16.4% return. Compared to the rest of the world, the Australian market was one of the strongest trades for momentum globally, well ahead of both the US and Europe, despite its relatively slow overall performance.Note: these strategies are prone to reversal, and in the early days of the new financial year, there has been a notable shift away from momentum-based trading to other areas. Now is probably too early to say whether this marks a sustained change, but it cannot be ignored, and caution is always advised.The second big story of FY26 will be CBA. CBA’s growing influence was a key story of FY25. Its weight in the index rose by an average of 2.1 percentage points across the year, reaching an average of 11.5% by June. That helped push the spread between the Financials and Resources sectors to 15.8 percentage points — the widest gap since 2018. Despite the strong cash returns, market valuations are eye-watering; at one point during June, CBA became the world’s most expensive bank on price metrics. The forward price-to-earnings multiple now sits at 18.9 times. This is well above the long-term average of 14.7 and higher than the 10-year benchmark of 16.1. Meanwhile, the dividend yield has slipped to 3.4%, down from the historical average of 4.4%. Earnings momentum remains soft, with FY25 growth estimates still tracking at 1.4%, and FY26 forecast at a moderate 5.4%. This suggests that recent gains have come more from expanding valuation multiples than from actual earnings upgrades, making the August reporting date a catalyst day for it and, by its size, the market as a whole.On the macro front, attention now turns to the Reserve Bank of Australia. The central bank cut the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.6% at its July meeting. Recent commentary from the RBA has taken on a more dovish tone, with benign inflation data and ongoing global uncertainty expected to outweigh the strength of the labour market. The RBA appears to be steering toward a neutral policy stance, and markets will be watching for further signals on how that shift will be managed. Recent economic data has been mixed. May retail sales were weaker than expected, while broader household spending indicators held up slightly better. Building approvals saw a smaller-than-hoped-for bounce, employment remains strong, but productivity is low. Inflation is now at a 3-year low and falling; all this points to underlying support from the RBA’s easing bias both now and into the first half of FY26.As we move into FY26, the key questions are:
Can fundamentals wrestle back control over momentum?
Will earnings growth catch up to price to justify valuations?
How will policy decisions from the RBA and other central banks shape investor sentiment in an ever-volatile world?
While the early signs suggest a possible rotation, the jury is still out on whether this marks a new phase for the Australian market or just a brief pause in the rally that defined FY25.
While recent data has shown core inflation moderating, core PCE is on track to average below target at just 1.6% annualised over the past three months.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made clear that concerns about future inflation, especially from tariffs, remain top of mind.“If you just look backwards at the data, that’s what you would say… but we have to be forward-looking,” Powell said. “We expect a meaningful amount of inflation to arrive in the coming months, and we have to take that into account.”While the economy remains strong enough to buy time, policymakers are closely monitoring how tariff-related costs evolve before shifting policy. Powell also stated that without these forward-looking risks, rates would likely already be closer to the neutral rate, which is a full 100 basis points from current levels.
2. The Unemployment Rate anchor
Powell repeatedly cited the 4.2% unemployment rate during the press conference, mentioning it six times as the primary reason for keeping rates in restrictive territory. At this level, employment is ahead of the neutral rate.“The U.S. economy is in solid shape… job creation is at a healthy level,” Powell added that real wages are rising and participation remains relatively strong. He did, however, acknowledge that uncertainty around tariffs remains a constraint on future employment intentions.If not for a decline in labour force participation in May, the unemployment rate would already be closer to 4.6%. Couple this with the continuing jobless claims ticking up and hiring rates subdued, risks are building around labour market softening.
3. Autumn Meetings are Live
While avoiding firm forward guidance, Powell hinted at a timeline:“It could come quickly. It could not come quickly… We feel like the right thing to do is to be where we are… and just learn more.”This suggests the Fed will remain on hold through the July meeting, using the summer to assess incoming data, particularly whether tariffs meaningfully push inflation higher. If those effects prove limited and unemployment begins to rise, the stage could be set for a rate cut in September.
This coming Friday sees the January core PCE inflation data – the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. Now most are forecasting that it should confirm that inflation has eased compared to this time last year. The consensus estimate has the monthly increase at 0.2 per cent with the annual rate at 2.5 per cent.
Now that is premised on a range of factors, they are also based on the fact the newly installed administration was not in power when these numbers were being collated. For now then – here are the key issues of the PCE read this Friday: Inflation Expectations: A temporary blip? Or is this the ‘transitory v structural debate again? – Upside impactor Several surveys are showing some upward movement in price expectations, mainly down to tariffs and other new external impacts.
Most don’t see this as a sign of a new inflationary trend but that is cold comfort considering how wrong these forecasts have been over the past three years. Case in point here is the University of Michigan’s 5 to 10 year inflation expectations which jumped to 3.5 per cent in February release, highest of this cycle. The caveat is that while this figure is high, historically this read has run above actual inflation, even when inflation was stable at 2 per cent, even so – a 1.5 per cent miss seems way out and even a 2.8 to 2.9 per cent read would be an issue for further cuts and the current US inflation story.
Other things to keep in mind: Tariffs were front and centre in February and clearly remain a political and geopolitical risk/threat. It should die down in the coming weeks as the administration settles in, the news cycle moves and the size of the tariffs retreat – that is until something causes the President to react. But March should be quieter – but the year will be volatile.
Countering the University of Michigan survey is the New York Fed’s, which hasn’t shown a major shift. If the increase in expectations were widespread, this would move the dial and would be more concerning. It makes the NY Fed data all the more interesting ahead of its launch.
We should also point out February’s manufacturing PMI showed rising input and output prices, while service sector price indices eased – why? Tariffs. This aligns with the 10% tariffs on Chinese imports that kicked in earlier this month.
With 25% steel and aluminium tariffs set for March 12, some price pressures may persist in March. Used Car Prices: A Temporary Divergence? – Down side impactor Used car prices in CPI have been running hotter than expected, especially relative to wholesale prices, which typically lead by a few months. And, this even after the surge in used car prices during the COVID era.
This market has remained above trend but is easing a Manheim wholesale used car prices fell 1.1 per cent month on month in early February, reinforcing our view that CPI inflation in this category has limited room to rise. If consumer demand were truly driving higher prices, we’d expect to see wholesale prices moving up as well which hasn’t happened. New York Congestion Pricing: Is this one and done?
A big policy pitch from the President for the state of New York was the congestion charging throughout New York City. True to its word the Trump administration revoked approval for congestion pricing in New York City, which had gone into effect in early January. This is likely to be the reason for the 2.6 per cent month on month spike in motor vehicle fees within CPI.
If the fee is ultimately scrapped, we’d expect an equivalent pullback in this CPI category. But with legal challenges keeping the fee in place for now – it was a double hit. One to watch.
Housing & Shelter: Watching LA Zillow’s single-family rent index rose 0.33 per cent month on month in January, consistent with shelter inflation continuing to slow – but still growing above historical averages. However it is not even across the country - Los Angeles rents spiked 1 per cent month on month - the biggest monthly jump since early 2022. The recent fires may have played a role, and if this strength persists, we could see upward pressure on shelter inflation later this year.
Median home prices remained flat in January, and with the broader housing market cooling, long-term upside risk to shelter inflation remains limited. In short, this Friday’s PCE is going to a line ball read – any hit that inflation is continuing to defy expectations as it has since September, the Fed will be dealt out of the rate market in 2025 and the USD, US bonds and risk exposures with debt are going to see reasonable movements. Which brings us to the other elephant in the market trading room – Tariffs on silver things.
Tariff Changes on Steel and Aluminium: Who really pays? We have been reluctant to write about the steel and aluminium tariffs that were announced on February 11. The Trump administration confirmed its plan to reinstate full tariffs on imported steel and aluminium—a move that will significantly impact both industries and consumers.
These tariffs are scheduled to start in early March, these Section 232 import tariffs will impose a 25% duty on steel and aluminium products, with aluminium tariffs rising from the previous 10% to 25%. Right now every nation on the planet (including Australia) is in Washington trying to wiggle their way out of the impending price surge – so far there is radio silence from the administration on if it will budge on any of the changes. Memory Lane If we take the 2018 tariffs as a guide, history suggests that once domestic stockpiles are depleted and buyers turn to global markets, U.S. prices will likely rise to reflect most of these duties.
However, exemptions may still be granted, particularly for aluminium, where the U.S. depends heavily on imports about 85% of aluminium consumption comes from overseas. While U.S. importers will bear roughly 80% of the tariff costs, exporters may need to lower prices to remain competitive—assuming they can’t find better pricing in other markets. Other things to be aware of from a trading point of view - The U.S. imports ~ 70 per cent of its primary aluminium Canada.
Who is the biggest play in that Canadian market? Rio Tinto. And it's not just Canada Rio Tinto ships approximately 1.75 million tonnes of aluminium annually from Canada and Australia.
Nearly 45 per cent of Rio Tinto’s U.S. aluminium sales are value-added products, which carries a premium of $200-$300 per tonne over London Metal Exchange (LME) prices. That is something that very much irks the President. Couple this with the fact physical delivery in the U.S. is also at a premium price and that gives you an average price estimate that could rise by ~40 per cent to approximately $1,036 per tonne ($0.50/lb), up from the 2024 average of $427 per tonne.
The thing is Rio Tinto itself is forecasting strong demand in North America, and its Value-add pricing is unlikely to change as domestic suppliers can’t easily replace the volumes it needs. In short, price pressure is coming – and suppliers will likely win out over the consumer. So what about Steel?
The U.S. imports 25-30 per cent of its steel so it’s not as reliant on this product as aluminium, but 80 per cent of those imports are currently exempt under Section 232 which is about to scrap it. That means the tariffs will impact around 18 million tonnes of steel imports annually, with: 35-40 per cent being flat products, 20-25 per cent semi-finished steel, and the rest covering long steel, pipes, tubes, and stainless steel. The Trump administration has signalled concerns over semi-finished steel imports, particularly Brazilian slab imports (~3-4 million tonnes per year).
What Does This Mean for Steel Prices? All things being equal - U.S. domestic steel prices will rise in full alignment with the 25% tariff on affected imports. The short and tall of it For both steel and aluminium, the reintroduction of tariffs means higher prices for U.S. buyers, particularly once inventories run down and imports reflect the new duty rates.
While exemptions remain a possibility, businesses reliant on imported metals should prepare for cost increases and potential supply disruptions. Traders should be ready for volatility, margin changes and erratic conditions as the administration rages over pricing issues.
As geopolitical narratives continue to simmer, US and European markets move into the rest of the week with three dominant drivers: US inflation data, the start of US earnings season, and an unusual Fed-independence headline risk after the DOJ subpoenaed the Federal Reserve.
Quick facts:
US consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) are the key macro releases and are likely to impact the US dollar (USD) and other asset classes if there is a significant move from expectations.
JPMorgan reports Tuesday, with other major US banks through the week, as the Q4 reporting season gets underway.
Reporting around DOJ action involving the Fed, and Chair Powell’s prior testimony, created early market volatility on Monday, with markets sensitive to anything that may be perceived as undermining Fed independence.
President Trump announced this morning that any country doing business with Iran will face a 25% tariff on all business with the US, effective immediately.
Europe’s production and growth updates, including Eurozone industrial production and UK monthly GDP and trade data, are later in the week.
United States: CPI, Fed path, DOJ and Fed headline risk, and banks leading earnings
What to watch:
The US is carrying the highest event density in global data releases this week. CPI and PPI will both be watched for moves away from expectations.
Any meaningful surprise can shift Fed policy expectations. Markets are currently pricing a lower likelihood of a March rate cut (under 30%) than this time last week, based on fed funds futures probabilities tracked by CME FedWatch.
Bank earnings may set the tone for the reporting season as a whole. Forward guidance is likely to be as important as Q4 performance, with valuations thought to be high after another record close in the S&P 500 overnight.
Key releases and events:
Tue 13 Jan (Wed am AEDT): CPI (Dec) (high sensitivity)
Tue 13 Jan (Wed am AEDT): JPMorgan earnings before market open (high sensitivity for banks and risk tone)
Wed to Thu: additional large-bank earnings cluster (high sensitivity for financials sentiment)
Wed 14 Jan (Thu am AEDT): US PPI
Thu 15 Jan (Fri am AEDT): US weekly unemployment
Throughout the week: Fed member speeches
How markets may respond:
S&P 500 and US risk tone: US indices are near record levels. The S&P 500 closed at 6,977.27 on Monday. Hotter-than-expected inflation can pressure growth and small-cap equities in particular, and weigh on the market broadly. Softer inflation can support further risk-on behaviour.
USD: Inflation data is the obvious driver this week for the greenback, but any continuation of DOJ and Fed developments, or geopolitical escalation, may introduce additional USD influences.
With the USD testing the highest levels seen in a month, followed by some light selling yesterday, some volatility looks likely. Gold has also been bid as a potential safety trade and hit fresh highs in the latest session, suggesting demand for defensive exposure remains present.
Earnings (banks): In a market already priced near highs, results can still create volatility if they are not accompanied by supportive earnings per share (EPS), revenue and forward guidance. Financials will likely see the first-order response, but any early pattern in results and guidance can influence the broader market beyond the first few days.
UK and Eurozone: growth data influence amid continuing equity strength
What to watch:
In a week where Europe may be driven primarily by events in the US and geopolitical narrative, the Eurozone industrial production print is still a noteworthy local release.
In the UK, monthly GDP and trade numbers on Thursday may influence both the FTSE 100 and the pound, particularly if there is any meaningful surprise.
Key releases and events:
Eurozone
Wed 14 Jan: Eurozone industrial production (Nov 2025) (medium sensitivity for cyclical sectors)
UK
Thu 15 Jan: GDP monthly estimate (Nov 2025) (high sensitivity for GBP and UK rate expectations)
Thu 15 Jan: UK trade (Nov 2025) (low to medium sensitivity)
How markets may respond:
EUR spillover from the US: Despite light Eurozone data, the US response is likely to matter most this week, with the US dollar index a major driver of broader G10 FX direction.
DAX (DE40): Germany’s index is also trading at or near record levels and closed at 25,405 on Monday. (2) If the index is extended, it may react more to global rate moves and shifts in perceived risk.
FTSE 100 and GBP: The FTSE hit a new high in the overnight session, driven particularly by materials and mining stocks. (5) Any GDP surprise can re-price GBP and UK equities quickly in an environment where growth concerns persist.
Wed 14 Jan: US CPI, US bank earnings kick-off (notably JPMorgan)
Wed 14 Jan: Eurozone industrial production (Nov 2025)
Thu 15 Jan: UK monthly GDP (Nov 2025) and UK trade (Nov 2025), US bank earnings continue
Fri 16 Jan: US weekly unemployment, US bank earnings continue
Bottom line
If US CPI surprises higher, markets may lean toward higher-for-longer interest rate pricing, which can pressure equity multiples and lift rates volatility.
If bank earnings are solid but guidance is cautious, equities can still see two-way swings given index levels near records and high valuations.
If DOJ and Fed headlines escalate, they may override normal data reactions to some degree. That could increase demand for perceived safe havens such as gold and lift FX volatility.
For Europe, Eurozone production (Wed) and UK GDP and trade (Thu) are the key local data. The region is still likely to trade primarily off US outcomes and broader risk sentiment.
Asia-Pacific markets start the week with sentiment shaped by China’s mid-week trade data, USDJPY (USD/JPY) as Japan’s key volatility channel, and offshore reporting influencing Australian equities. With a light domestic data calendar, global events may do most of the work on risk appetite.
Quick facts:
China's mid-week trade data is the primary regional risk event, with imports monitored for signs of domestic demand stability.
USD/JPY remains the key volatility channel, which may influence Nikkei performance.
Australian equities lack major domestic catalysts, leaving the ASX and AUD direction sensitive to China outcomes, geopolitics and US bank earnings.
This week’s Asia-Pacific focus is less about local policy and more about the transmission channels that typically set the tone.
For China, trade data may shape the growth narrative.
For Japan, the USD/JPY direction may influence equity momentum.
For Australia, offshore earnings, commodities and geopolitics may dominate in the absence of major domestic catalysts.
China: Shanghai may be influenced by trade data
What to watch:
With mid-week Chinese trade data, markets may view the release as a gauge of whether policy support is translating into growth activity or slowing any downturn.
Shanghai Composite: Stronger trade data could support sentiment, though the quality and perceived longevity of any improvement may matter. Weak imports would likely be read as continued softness in domestic demand.
Australia (resources and AUD): China trade and credit tone can feed directly into bulk commodity expectations and regional risk appetite, with potential flow-through to ASX miners and AUDUSD (AUD/USD).
With no major policy decision scheduled, and the producer price index (PPI) the main data point, Japan’s influence this week may run primarily through USD/JPY moves after US data releases, and broader geopolitical headlines, particularly as markets reopen after Monday’s public holiday.
Key releases:
Wed 14 Jan: Preliminary machine tool orders, year on year (y/y) (low sensitivity)
Thu 15 Jan: PPI (medium sensitivity)
How markets may respond:
USD/JPY: The pair ended last week around 158, near recent highs. Moves can be volatile; markets will watch whether the pair holds recent strength or retraces, particularly around prior trading ranges.
Nikkei 225: The index hit a record high early last week before a modest two-day pullback, then closed higher on Friday. Equity momentum, often closely tied to FX stability, may be influenced by the strength or otherwise of USD/JPY.
Australia: offshore drivers dominate in a lighter data week
What to watch:
In the absence of significant domestic data releases, Australian markets may be more exposed to external influences. The main themes are China trade data, geopolitics, commodity prices and the start of the US earnings season, with banks in focus.
Thu 15 Jan: Melbourne Institute (MI) inflation expectations (low sensitivity)
How markets may respond:
ASX 200: The index has been consolidating around the 8,700–8,800 area (approx.). Local financial stocks may react to inferences made from US bank earnings. Stocks such as Macquarie Group are typically more sensitive to global market conditions and activity in investment markets, often drawing comparisons with US peers such as JPMorgan Chase (JPM).
AUDUSD (AUD/USD): AUD/USD has pulled back after last week’s gains and is trading near recent highs. Technical commentary is mixed, and price action can change quickly around major offshore events.
South Korea is expecting an interest rate decision on Thursday. Any deviation from market expectations for no change (currently 2.5% per Trading Economics) could create a minor FX ripple in regional currency pairs.
Asia-Pacific calendar:
Mon 12 Jan: Japan public holiday
Tue 13 Jan: Australia consumer sentiment
Wed 14 Jan: China trade balance, exports and imports
Thu 15 Jan: Bank of Korea rate decision; Japan PPI; Australia inflation expectations
Bottom line
If China trade and credit data stabilise, regional equities may move higher, with AUD and ASX resource stocks among the key sensitivity points.
If USD/JPY extends higher, the Nikkei may remain supported near highs, though FX volatility risk may increase.
If US bank earnings disappoint, ASX financials could face near-term pressure despite limited domestic data.
Information is accurate as at 23:00 AEDT on 11 January 2026. Economic calendar events, charts and market price data are sourced from TradingView.
So why do Magnificent 7 (Mag 7) earnings matter for Australians? Because the US earnings season is a different sport from Australia, and this is where the scoreboard sits. These seven names do not just report results, they set the tone for the Nasdaq, the S&P 500, and risk appetite more broadly. They often influence index tone, but market moves are not guaranteed and can fade or reverse.
The Aussie edge: time zones, event windows, and what gets priced
For Aussie traders, the challenge is not just timing. It's overnight gaps, liquidity, and AUD/USD currency moves that can amplify or offset the share price reaction.
Most Mag 7 results land after the US close, so the initial move often hits Sydney morning liquidity. Markets may react first to the headline numbers, then again during the call as guidance, margins and capex are digested — but the sequence varies by quarter.
What this guide gives you, company by company
For each company, we map the US Eastern Time (ET) reporting window and the Sydney time window (AEDT), flag whether it is before or after the US close, and narrow the focus to the few drivers that tend to move price.
Source: Adobe Images
Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL)
Apple is a “quality” print until it isn’t. The market doesn’t just ask if Apple beat. It asks whether demand and mix support the next leg.
Reporting window (confirmed)
US reporting time: Thu, 29 Jan 2026 at 5:00 pm ET (after close)
AU reporting time: Fri, 30 Jan 2026 at 9:00 am AEDT
Quarter snapshot (Q1)
Projected consensus earnings per share (EPS): US$2.65
Call focus: iPhone demand and mix, services trajectory, China and FX translation
Translation: Apple “beats” are common. The repricing comes from demand tone and margin language.
Earnings expectations and how the market will frame it
A “beat” means EPS and revenue come in above expectations, but it only really counts if demand still sounds healthy and the gross margin commentary stays straightforward.
A “meet” means results are basically in line, so attention shifts to the call. Investors will focus on iPhone product mix, how fast Services is growing, and whether any specific regions are weakening.
A “miss” often reacts more negatively if it is driven by weaker demand, because the market may treat it as the start of a trend, not a one time issue. You can also see a big price gap right after the report, before the call even starts.
Source: Adobe Images
Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: META)
Meta is expected to report the December quarter, which effectively turns this into a Sydney morning catalyst for Aussie traders. The headline move hits first but the second leg often comes from the call, when guidance and capex ranges get priced.
Reporting window (expected)
US reporting time: Mon, 2 Feb 2026 at 4:05 pm ET (after close)
AU reporting time: Tue, 3 Feb 2026 at 8:05 am AEDT
Quarter snapshot (Q4)
Projected consensus EPS: US$8.29
Projected consensus revenue: US$58.27 bn
Call focus: AI infrastructure capex, Ads demand plus Reels monetisation and Reality Labs losses versus discipline
Translation: Meta can beat the print and still sell off if the Street hears “higher spend, longer payoff.”
Earnings expectations and how the market will frame it
A “beat” means EPS and revenue come in above consensus, but it only really counts if guidance stays intact and the 2026 capex and expense ranges do not get wider.
A “meet” is close enough that the stock trades the tone of the call: how broad ad demand looks, whether Reels monetisation is improving, and whether spending sounds capped or more open ended.
A “miss” can turn ugly quickly if it comes with weaker ad demand commentary or higher spend bands. With expectations already high, the initial gap can be sharp, and what happens next depends on whether guidance can steady the story.
Source: Adobe Images
Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOGL)
Alphabet is still an ads engine first, and a Cloud and AI story second. The market wants proof that Cloud profitability and AI spend can coexist without compressing the whole narrative.
Reporting window (confirmed)
US reporting time: Wed, 4 Feb 2026 at 4:00 pm ET (after close)
AU reporting time: Thu, 5 Feb 2026 at 8:00 am AEDT
Quarter snapshot (Q4)
Projected consensus EPS: US$2.59
Projected consensus revenue: TBC
Call focus: Search and YouTube ads pricing and volume, Cloud growth and profitability, AI capex and monetisation signals
Translation: The market forgives a lot if ads are strong and Cloud margins keep improving.
Earnings expectations and how the market will frame it
A “beat” means EPS and revenue come in above consensus, but it only really matters if ad demand sounds broad and Cloud profitability does not slip while AI spending ramps.
A “meet” puts the call in the driver’s seat, with investors listening for ad pricing trends, YouTube momentum, and whether capex is moving higher.
A “miss” hurts most if it is driven by weaker ads, because then the market starts debating the ad cycle, not just the company.
Source: Adobe Images
Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN)
Amazon is two businesses stapled together in the tape. The market uses AWS to price growth and uses retail margins to price discipline.
Reporting window (expected)
US reporting time: Mon, 2 Feb 2026 at 4:00 pm ET (after close)
AU reporting time: Tue, 3 Feb 2026 at 8:00 am AEDT
Quarter snapshot (Q4)
Prijected consensus EPS: US$1.97
Projected consensus revenue: US$211.33 bn
Call focus: AWS growth and margins, retail profitability/fulfilment efficiency, advertising momentum, capex tone
Translation: AWS decides the direction. Retail decides the confidence.
Earnings expectations and how the market will frame it
A “beat” means EPS and revenue come in above consensus, but it only really matters if AWS holds steady or speeds up again and management does not worry the Street with spending plans.
A “meet” puts AWS and margin tone front and centre, and the call does most of the work.
A “miss” usually gets hit hardest when AWS growth slows or operating income guidance disappoints, because that is what can reset the whole valuation debate.
Source: Adobe Images
Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: MSFT)
Reporting window (confirmed)
US reporting time: Wed, 28 Jan 2026 at 4:00 pm ET (after close)
AU reporting time: Thu, 29 Jan 2026 at 8:00 am AEDT
Quarter snapshot (Q2)
Projected consensus earnings per share (EPS): US$3.86
Projected consensus revenue: US$80.09 bn
Call focus: Azure growth, AI monetisation (Copilot/attach), capex intensity, and margin trajectory
Translation: This is usually a cloud plus capex trade, not an EPS trade.
Earnings expectations and how the market will frame it
A “beat” means EPS and revenue come in above consensus, but it only really matters if Azure is holding up and capex does not sound unlimited. Beat plus steady cloud trends and stable margins is the upside script the tape usually rewards.
A “meet” puts the focus on the call, especially Azure growth, commercial bookings tone, and how quickly capex is stepping up.
A “miss” usually gets punished most when cloud growth slows or margins get shaky, because that is the key forward anchor the market leans on.
Source: Adobe Images
NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA)
Nvidia is the season’s last boss. Markets treat it like a read-through on AI capex itself. The print matters, but guidance and gross margin are the real price setters.
Reporting window (confirmed)
US reporting time: Wed, 25 Feb 2026 at 4:20 pm ET (after close)
AU reporting time: Thu, 26 Feb 2026 at 8:20 am AEDT
Quarter snapshot (Q4)
Projected consensus EPS: US$1.45
Projected consensus revenue: US$65.47 bn
Call focus: Data centre demand versus capacity, gross margin trajectory, supply/lead times, next-quarter guide
Translation: Guidance and gross margin commentary often drive the reaction, but outcomes vary.
Earnings expectations and how the market will frame it
A “beat” means EPS and revenue come in above consensus, but it only really matters if the next quarter outlook confirms demand is still strong and the gross margin message stays solid.
A “meet” means the call becomes the decider, and the stock trades the outlook, margins, and what management says about supply conditions.
A “miss” can gap down fast, especially if it comes with softer forward guidance, because the market may take it as a clue about the broader AI spending cycle.
Source: Adobe Images
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA)
Tesla’s earnings are rarely just about the quarter. The print hits first, but the real repricing usually happens when the call clarifies margins, demand, and the autonomy timeline. For Aussie traders, it’s a Sydney morning catalyst.
Reporting window (confirmed)
US reporting time: Wed, 28 Jan 2026 at 4:05 pm ET (after close)
AU reporting time: Thu, 29 Jan 2026 at 8:05 am AEDT
Quarter snapshot (Q4)
Projected consensus EPS: US$0.44
Projected consensus revenue: US$25.15 bn
Call focus: Autonomy/robotaxi cadence, auto gross margin, pricing/demand and energy storage scale
Translation: Tesla can “beat” and still get sold if margins compress or the roadmap tone shifts.
Earnings expectations and how the market will frame it
A “beat” means EPS and revenue come in above consensus, but it only really matters if the margin story stays intact and management does not add fresh uncertainty around pricing or timing.
A “meet” is close enough that the stock trades the tone of the call, especially on demand, how durable margins look, and progress toward autonomy milestones.
A “miss” gets hit fastest when it comes with weaker margin language or softer demand comments, because the market will assume next quarter looks tougher, not easier.
