We have deliberately waited a few days before commenting on “Liberation Day” and the fallout that would come from President Trump’s new tariffs regime.It will go down as just another historical period of heightened volatility, uncertainty, risk, and a whole manner of market turmoil. This is why we wanted to put what is happening right now into some context. (If that is possible, considering how volatile the period is and how erratic and how quick the president's manner can change.)US markets have seen this kind of violent move only three times since the 1950s. The S&P’s over 10 per cent drop in the final two sessions of the week following President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement has it in rare company – and not in a good way - October 1987 (Black Monday), November 2008 (Global Financial Crisis), March 2020 (COVID-19).So, why such a reaction?The market reaction reflects not the ‘shock’ but the scale and brevity of the tariffs. A 10% across-the-board tariff was broadly expected. There were some calculations as much as 15 to 20% judging by the net $1 trillion in and out of the federal government revenue. (This is the impact of DOGE and other government spending cuts coupled with the tariffs now in place that will offset the promised 0% personal income tax for those earning up to US$150,000)But what markets didn’t see coming was the country-specific layer. Take China as an example; the additional 34% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods pushed the total to 54%. With other measures factored in, the effective burden could approach 65%.Then there were the tariffs that were tied to trade deficits, hitting Japan, South Korea and most emerging markets between the eyes (i.e. Vietnam).The EU saw a 20% rate, which was within expectations, while the UK, Australia, New Zealand and others landed at 10%. Canada and Mexico were spared, as was Russia, North Korea and Belarus, interestingly enough.Energy was excluded, which is unsurprising considering Trump’s goal of getting energy down, down and staying down. Pharmaceuticals and semiconductors were also carved out, however, this is more down to the probability of more targeted action like that of steel and aluminium.Now, what is different about this market shock and risk off trading is that it would send funds flowing to the US dollar, ratcheting it higher. But not this time. The dollar weakened against the euro. Theories as to why range from Europe’s lighter tariff load to euro-based investors pulling money out of the US. The same could be said of the Swiss Franc.All this leads to an average effective tariff rate of around 22%. That number will likely climb once product-specific tariffs on areas like pharmaceuticals and lumber are formalised. Some of this may be negotiated down, but not soon, and the possibility of tit-for-tat retaliation like China has now entered into could actually see it going higher still as the President looks to outdo country responses.The broader uncertainty this introduces to the US outlook is now at its highest since early 2020 and has the markets pricing in 110 basis points of Fed rate cuts this year – a near 5 cut call shows just how unprecedented this is.In fact, in no time in living memory has a developed economy lifted trade barriers this aggressively or abruptly. What has been implemented is textbook economics 101 supply-side shock.Input costs go up, finished goods get pricier, and the ripple effects hit margins and employment. Expect to see this in the next six months.Expect core PCE inflation to finish the year at 3.5% —nearly a full percentage point higher than the consensus forecast from just a week ago.Real GDP growth is forecast to slow to 0.1% on a quarter-on-quarter basis. That path may be volatile as Q1 could look worse due to soft consumption and strong imports, with a mechanical bounce in Q2.What has been lost in the chaos of last Thursday and Friday’s trade was the March Non-farm payrolls jobs print came in at 228,000, which was above consensus, the caveat being it is less so after downward revisions to prior months.Hospitality hiring was strong, likely helped by a weather rebound that won’t repeat. Government payrolls are holding steady for now, but cuts are coming. Layoffs in defence and aerospace (DOGE) are already underway, and tariffs will act as a brake on new hiring. Expect softer reports ahead.Unemployment ticked up slightly to 4.15%, reflecting a modest rise in participation. That’s still within range, giving the Fed cover to hold off on immediate action. But if job losses build pressure on the Fed to act, it will increase quickly.The consensus now is for the first rate cut of this cycle to start in May, triggered by softer April payrolls and earlier signs of deterioration in jobless claims and business sentiment.Zooming out from just a US-centric point of view, the macro standpoint is just as bad if not worse. The scale of tariffs adds pressure on industrial production, trade volumes and cross-border investment.That’s feeding into commodity markets, where the outlook has turned more cautious.Brent is expected to fall into the low US$60s as trade frictions and oversupply build. LNG looks weaker too, with soft Asian demand and less urgency in Europe to restock. Iron ore is more exposed to China, and the reciprocal tariffs put a vulnerability into the price due to the broader global slowdown and higher prices to the US.Looking at China specifically, infrastructure remains a key policy lever that would offset the possible loss of demand in aluminium, copper, and steel. Monetary indicators are beginning to turn, suggesting the start of a new easing cycle. It also suggests that policy remains inward-facing, and a focus on domestic stability would mean a metals-heavy growth path. Thus suggesting Australia could be the ‘lucky country’ once more and could escape the full burden of the global upheaval.In short, the global reaction isn’t just about tariffs. It’s about what happens when policy shocks collide with already-fragile global demand, and central banks are forced to navigate inflation that’s driven by politics, not just price cycles.This is the question for traders and investors alike over the coming period.
Another Period For The History Books.

Related Articles
-min.jpg)
The decision to scale (increase the traded lot size of a specific EA) should be based on statistical evidence that indicates your EA has the potential to perform to certain expectations.
Equal weight should be given to the decision to scale, as to the initial decision to deploy an EA. This guide provides an indicative approach on how to put together and action your scaling plan.
Before You Start Your Scaling Plan
Important: this should be an individual plan that is consistent with your personal trading objectives, your EA portfolio, and your personal financial situation (including account size).
We are going to use a starting lot of 0.10 per trade in the examples in this document —you want to adjust this based on your own risk tolerance.
Whatever your chosen lot size start point, EA scaling should be a pre-planned incremental approach, scaling stepwise based on performance metrics you are seeing in your live trading account.
You should also have assessed the current margin usage of your EA portfolio exposure to ensure that any scaling and related increased margin requirements are appropriate to the size of your account.
Suggested Scaling Baseline Requirements
Scaling should only be performed when your EA is performing to what you deem to be a good standard. To make this judgment, you need to set some minimum performance standards.
The past performance of your EA is not a guarantee of future performance. If market conditions change, you must remain vigilant and continue to measure performance on an ongoing basis for every live EA you have.
You need to define the key metrics that are important to you.
Two important metrics to include are:
- The number of trades: to provide some evidence of reliability
- The period of time: to have had exposure to at least some variation in market conditions
Example of how you may lay your metrics out in a table:

Some may choose to include proximity to original expectations of other metrics, such as minimum win rate, average profit in winning trades, and average loss in those that go against you.
It should only be after your metrics are met that lot scaling begins on any specific EA.
Lot Size Scaling Ladder
Below is an example of a performance-based scaling plan assuming a 0.10-lot baseline.
Again, this is indicative. It provides a framework with clear review dates and an approach that illustrates incremental scaling. You must still define a regime that is right for your specific trading objectives.

Risk Guardrails
It is vital to keep an eye on your general account risks and have limits in place that guide your EA use.
Such limits must be constant across all stages of scaling and referenced beyond the risk of a single EA, but to your portfolio as a whole.:
Per-Trade Risk (Nominal)
Trade risk for any one trade should be seen in the context of account size and the dollar risk based on the risk parameters you have set for your EA.
Specify a maximum percentage of the account balance — a $200 loss is more impactful on a $1000 account compared to a $10,000 account.
Stick to what is right for you in terms of your tolerable risk level based on your trading objectives and financial situation. A common suggestion is a 1-2% risk of account equity per trade.
Total Open Exposure
Specifying maximum exposure in the number of EAs open at any time and those that use the same asset class is important for overall portfolio risk management.
There are tools you can use to monitor exposure risk generally, as well as those that can be used to indicate single asset exposure.
Margin Usage
It is always desirable that your set exit approaches and parameter levels are what your exits are based on. It should not be because your margin usage has meant you have moved into a margin call situation.
Specify a minimum level to adhere to and make sure that your account is sufficiently funded. If volatility or slippage rises (e.g., news events or illiquid sessions), reduce lot size temporarily.
Scaling Psychology – Managing “Big Numbers”
As lot sizes rise, your emotions may respond accordingly when you see the larger dollar amounts that your EA is generating.
If you are used to seeing an average profit of $100 and average loss of $50, and suddenly you are seeing significantly bigger numbers, it creates an emotional challenge where you may be tempted to do a “discretionary override”.
Although there are situations, such as major market events, overexposure in a specific asset, or VPS or account system problems, where such intervention may be considered, generally this would distort the actual performance evaluation of your EA and is not encouraged (unless it is pre-planned).
The table below presents some of the generally accepted challenges and offers suggestions on how to manage them.

Your Plan Into Action…
In practical terms, your scaling plan should have two components:
- The key parameters for action on your chosen key metrics
- Specified periodic review times to make your next scaling decision
This is not a race. Having systems in place facilitates creating the opportunity that scaling brings while still mitigating the risks.

You've been using a 30-pip trailing stop for as long as you can remember. It feels professional, manageable and relatively safe.
But during volatile sessions, you see your winners get stopped out prematurely, while low-volatility winners drift back and hit stops that are relatively too tight.
Same 30 pips, different market contexts, but inconsistent in the protection of profit and overall results.
The Fixed-Pip Fallacy?
Traders gravitate toward fixed pip trailing stops because they feel concrete and calculable. The approach is easy to execute, readily automated through platforms like MetaTrader, and aligns with how most people naturally think about profit and loss.
But this simplicity masks a fundamental problem.
A twenty-five pip move in EURUSD during the London open represents an entirely different market event than the same move during the Asian session. The context matters, yet the fixed-pip approach treats them identically.
This becomes even more problematic when you consider different currency pairs. GBPJPY might have an average true range of thirty pips on an hourly chart, while EURGBP shows only ten. The same trailing stop applied to both instruments ignores the reality that volatility varies dramatically across pairs.
Timeframe introduces yet another layer of complexity. Take AUDUSD as an example: a ten-pip move on a four-hour chart barely registers as meaningful price action, but on a five-minute chart it represents a significant swing. The fixed-pip method treats these scenarios as equivalent.
The natural response might be to use something more sophisticated, like an ATR multiple. This accounts for your chosen timeframe, the instrument's normal volatility, and even session differences. But it brings its own complications.
When do you measure the ATR? Do you use the value at entry, knowing it might be distorted by sessional effects? Or do you make it dynamic, which becomes far more complex to implement in practice?
Perhaps there's another way forward that doesn't rely on abstract measures of volatility but instead responds directly to the movement of price in relation to the trade you're actually in—accounting for your lot size and the profit you've already captured.
Maximum Give Back: The Percentage Approach
Instead of asking "how do I protect profit after fifty pips," ask "how do I protect profit after giving back a certain percentage of open gains."
Consider a maximum give-back threshold of 40%. When your trade is up one hundred pips, the trailing stop activates if price retraces forty pips from peak, locking in a minimum of sixty pips.
But when that same trade reaches two hundred fifty pips of profit, the stop adjusts, and now it activates at a one-hundred-pip pullback, securing at least one hundred fifty pips. The stop distance scales naturally with the magnitude of the win you're sitting on.
This creates a logical asymmetry that fixed pip approaches miss entirely. Small winners receive tighter protection. Big winners get room to breathe.
The approach adapts automatically to what the market is actually giving you in real time, without requiring you to predict anything in advance.
You don't need to maintain a reference table where EURUSD gets thirty pips and GBPJPY gets sixty. You don't need different standards for different instruments at all.
The same 40% logic works whether the average true range is high or low, whether volatility is expanding or contracting. It is designed to be more adaptive to regime changes than fixed-pip stops, potentially requiring less manual recalibration as it's responding to the trade itself rather than to abstract measures of what the instrument normally does.
The market tells you how much it's willing to move in your direction, and you protect that information proportionally. Nothing more complicated than that.
Key Parameters to Specify in Your System:
- Maximum Give Back Percent: 30-50% is typical, but is dependent on how much profit retracement you can tolerate.
- Minimum Profit to Activate: In dollar amount or an ATR multiple form entry. This prevents premature exits on tiny winners, e.g., if it has moved 5 pips at 40% that would mean you are only locking in a 3-pip profit.
- Update Frequency: Potentially every bar. More frequent, but there may be issues if there is a limited ability to look at the market (if using some sort of automation, this could be programmed).
Is Maximum Giveback Always the Optimum Trail?
As with many approaches, results can be highly dependent on underlying market conditions. It is important to be balanced.
The table below summarises some observations when maximum giveback has been used as part of automated exits.

The major difference isn’t likely to be an increased win rate. It is about keeping more of your runners during high-volatility price moves rather than donating them back to the market.
It may not always be the best approach, as different strategies often merit different exit approaches.
There are two obvious scenarios where fixed pips may still be worth consideration.
- Very short-term scalping (sub-20 pip targets)
- News trading, where you want instant hard stops
Integrating Maximum Giveback With Your System
You may have other complementary exit filters in place that you already use. Remember, the ideal is often a combination of exits, with whichever is triggered first.
There is no reason why this approach will not work well with approaches such as set stops, take profits and partial closes (where you simply use maximum Giveback in the remainder as well as time-based exits.
Final Thoughts
To use fixed-pip trailing stops irrespective of instrument pricing, volatility, timeframe, and sessional considerations is the trading equivalent of wearing the same jacket in summer and winter.
Maximum Give Back trailing adjusts to the ‘market weather’. It won't make bad trades good, but it could help stop you from cutting your best trades short just because your stop was designed for average conditions.
The market doesn't trade in averages but has specific likely moves dependent on context. Your exits should not be average either.

Multi-Timeframe (MTF) analysis is not just about checking the trend on the daily before trading on the hourly; ideally, it involves examining and aligning context, structure, and timing so that every trade is placed with purpose.
When done correctly, MTF analysis can filter market noise, may help with timing of entry, and assist you in trading with the trending “tide,” not against it.
Why Multi-Timeframe Analysis Matters
Every setup exists within a larger market story, and that story may often define the probability of a successful trade outcome.
Single-timeframe trading leads to the trading equivalent of tunnel vision, where the series of candles in front of you dominate your thinking, even though the broader trend might be shifting.
The most common reason traders may struggle is a false confidence based on a belief they are applying MTF analysis, but in truth, it’s often an ad-hoc, glance, not a structured process.
When signals conflict, doubt creeps in, and traders hesitate, entering too late or exiting too early.
A systematic MTF process restores clarity, allowing you to execute with more conviction and consistency, potentially offering improved trading outcomes and providing some objective evidence as to how well your system is working.
Building Your Timeframe Hierarchy
Like many effective trading approaches, the foundation of a good MTF framework lies in simplicity. The more complex an approach, the less likely it is to be followed fully and the more likely it may impede a potential opportunity.
Three timeframes are usually enough to capture the full picture without cluttering up your chart’s technical picture with enough information to avoid potential contradiction in action.
Each timeframe tells a different part of the story — you want the whole book, not just a single chapter.

Scalpers might work on H1-M15-M5, while longer-term traders might prefer H4-H1-H15.
The key is consistency in approach to build a critical mass of trades that can provide evidence for evaluation.
When all three timeframes align, the probability of at least an initial move in your desired direction may increase.
An MTF breakout will attract traders whose preference for primary timeframe may be M15 AND hourly, AND 4-hourly, so increasing potential momentum in the move simply because more traders are looking at the same breakout than if it occurred on a single timeframe only.
Applying MTF Analysis
A robust system is built on clear, unambiguous statements within your trading plan.
Ideally, you should define what each timeframe contributes to your decision-making process:
- Trend confirmed
- Structure validated
- Entry trigger aligned
- Risk parameters clear
When you enter on a lower timeframe, you are gaining some conviction from the higher one. Use the lower timeframe for fine-tuning and risk control, but if the higher timeframe flips direction, your bias must flip too.
Your original trading idea can be questioned and a decision made accordingly as to whether it is a good decision to stay in the trade or, as a minimum action, trail a stop loss to lock in any gains made to date.
Putting MTF into Action
So, if the goal is to embed MTF logic into your trade decisions, some step-by-step guidance may be useful on how to make this happen
1. Define Your Timeframe Stack
Decide which three timeframes form your trading style-aligned approach.
The key here is that as a starting point, you must “plant your flag” in one set, stick to it and measure to see how well or otherwise it works.
Through doing this, you can refine based on evidence in the future.
One tip I have heard some traders suggest is that the middle timeframe should be at least two times your primary timeframe, and the slowest timeframe at least four times.
2. Build and Use a Checklist
Codify your MTF logic into a repeatable routine of questions to ask, particularly in the early stages of implementing this as you develop your new habit.
Your checklist might include:
- Is the higher-timeframe trend aligned?
- Is the structure supportive?
- Do I have a valid trigger?
- Is risk clearly defined?
This turns MTF from a concept into a practical set of steps that are clear and easy to action.
3. Consider Integrating MTF Into Open Trade Management
MTF isn’t just for entries; it can also be used as part of your exit decision-making.
If your higher timeframe begins showing early signs of reversal, that’s a prompt to exit altogether, scale out through a partial close or tighten stops.
By managing trades through the same multi-timeframe approach that you used to enter, you maintain logical consistency across the entire lifecycle of the trade.
Final Action
Start small. Choose one instrument, one timeframe set, and one strategy to apply it to.
Observe the clarity it adds to your decisions and outcomes. Once you see a positive impact, you have evidence that it may be worth rolling out across other trading strategies you use in your portfolio.
Final Thought
Multi-Timeframe Analysis is not a trading strategy on its own. It is a worthwhile consideration in ALL strategies.
It offers a wider lens through which you see the market’s true structure and potential strength of conviction.
Through aligning context, structure, and execution, you move from chasing an individual group of candles to trading with a more robust support for a decision.
Recent Articles

Last week brought some relief as markets found support following the retreat from record highs... with the recent crypto crash being a notable exception.
Bitcoin Breaks Below $100K
Crypto markets are under significant pressure after Bitcoin crashed through the psychological $100,000 level. Currently trading around $94,650, Bitcoin has fallen to its lowest point since May. The $94,000 level appears critical; if it fails, we could see Bitcoin slip back into the $80,000 range and potentially enter bear market territory.
Fed Minutes and Rate Cut Signals
The Federal Reserve minutes are due this week, and they could provide crucial insight into the timing of rate cuts in 2026. Markets have already priced in a likely December cut, but the January 2026 cut that was initially expected may be in jeopardy. Pay attention to the Fed speakers scheduled throughout the week—their comments could help clarify the path forward on monetary policy.
Strong Earnings Season Winds Down
We're in the final stretch of what's been an exceptionally strong earnings season, with 82% of companies beating EPS expectations and 76% surpassing revenue forecasts. This week features some heavyweight reports, most notably Nvidia reporting Wednesday after the bell. Major retailers Target and Walmart will cap things off, giving us a clear picture of consumer health heading into the holidays.
Market Insights
Watch Mike Smith's analysis for the week ahead in markets
Key Economic Events
Stay up to date with the upcoming economic events for the week.
.jpg)
近期美股走势较过去几个季度表现出了极大程度的疲软,七巨头财报之后走势各异,其中本轮财报损失最惨重的便是社交巨头Meta,公司股价财报后连续下挫现在股价距离历史最高点已经缩水25%,表面看是公司本轮财报的盈利缩水以及公司报表上某个一次性大幅减值带来的,所以市场上众多投资者在Meta股价爆雷后短期内快速入场抄底,但是随后的半个月里META股价再度下挫超10%除了宏观因素外,路透社报道的内容或许才是其股价一蹶不振的真实因素。11月6日路透社发布了一则爆炸性新闻,其中重点包括:
- 超高比例收入来自欺诈性广告:Meta 内部文件显示,2024 年约 10% 的年度总收入(约 160 亿美元) 来自欺诈广告与不合规商品广告。
- 欺诈广告曝光量巨大:公司估算其平台每日向用户展示约 150 亿条高风险欺诈广告,其中包括欺诈性电商、投资骗局、违规线上娱乐场所及禁售医疗产品。
- 公司连续三年未做有效监管:内部文件显示,至少过去三年,Meta 没有及时识别或阻止这些广告,导致 Facebook、Instagram 和 WhatsApp 的数十亿用户暴露于欺诈内容。
- 对欺诈广告的封禁标准过于严苛:Meta 的自动系统只有在预测欺诈可能性 ≥95% 时才会禁止广告;低于此置信度但仍被认为可能违规的广告,Meta 会选择提高广告费率作为惩罚而非直接封禁。
- 广告推荐机制导致更多风险内容曝光:用户点击欺诈广告后,Meta 的个性化广告系统可能会向同一用户推荐更多类似内容,放大风险。
- 内部文件反映监管风险全面存在:披露源自 2021 年至今 Meta 财务、游说、工程及安全部门的内部文件,反映公司虽量化滥用规模但在打击措施上仍然犹豫,以保护商业利益。
- 公司官方回应:Meta 发言人称内部估算“过于粗略并包含许多合法广告”,强调公司投入资源打击欺诈行为,并坚称“积极应对违规内容”。
从路透社的报道中不难看出,Meta 这次确实是摊上事了,但历史来看这已经不是第一次在监管上出现重大失误。作为全球最大的社交媒体平台之一,Meta 在信息和数据方面具有不可替代的市场优势,而如何利用优势盈利,则暴露出公司的企业文化与战略管理方向。根据历史信息,Meta 在澳洲和爱尔兰分别因误导性广告被当地监管处罚过,金额分别为 2000 万澳元和 3.9 亿欧元。但从本次内部文件披露来看,这些处罚与 Meta 在相关领域的收入相比简直是九牛一毛。过去数年里关于 Meta 监管不力与欺诈信息泛滥的问题反复被市场讨论,这次浪花之所以更大,一部分因为财报不佳,另一部分则是本次披露的数据量为历次最大。Meta 发言人 Andy 表示路透社新闻“带有选择性”,但整体回应模糊,对比数据显得力度不足,难以推脱监管缺位的事实。更深入看,这几乎成为资本主义体系中难以避免的一种结构性问题。有人曾讨论,假如某种疾病能被彻底治愈,则部分药企可能倾向研发能长期控制病情而非根治的药物,因为更符合商业利益。这种逐利逻辑在商业体系中十分常见。对于社交媒体平台而言,Meta 在西方世界的垄断地位促使其倾向选择更“收益最大化”的路径。过往轻微的处罚并不足以形成改变动力——当平台能通过相关信息获得数十亿美元的收益时,几千万或几亿的罚款几乎不具影响。路透社文章指出,欺诈性信息在 Meta 上相比于谷歌更易获得曝光,而唯利是图的策略也体现在广告系统中:普通商家的违规提示触发几次后就会处理,但高额广告客户则可能需要触发几百次。这种差异化机制最终被滥用,演变成另一种形式的“倾斜”,让高付费广告主能取得更大曝光,从而强化这类内容的传播。作为AI时代的巨头,Meta 掌握着大量流量和数据。如果公司在监管层面保持忽视态度,对大量依赖AI的用户而言无疑是深层风险。当今AI在视频制作、内容伪造等领域能力已大幅提升,若信息平台在道德与法治监管上持续松懈,未来 AI 生态或将面临更大隐患。对于投资者而言最关心的还是股价走向。如果 Meta 能像以往一样与监管达成和解、达成“默契协议”,短期内股价或将迅速反弹,因为市场会认为这一事件不会影响其未来营收预期。从历史经验看,这也确实是大概率事件。但从长期发展来看,一家企业若始终采取短视策略,虽短期不影响业绩,但终将在关键节点影响其长远竞争力。而在资本主义市场中,当监管不足以促成企业改变时,竞争便是最有效的药方——当越来越多风险内容冲击用户信任,巨头或许才会真正重视这个长期存在的顽疾。
.jpg)
摘要
IEA 最新月报显示,全球石油需求增速放缓但仍具韧性。尽管库存持续回升,但 OECD 库存整体仍低于五年均值,市场对供应中断高度敏感。OPEC、IEA、EIA 均上调非 OPEC 供应,未来可能出现“松中带紧”的供需结构。原油价格在供应宽松预期与地缘扰动之间反复震荡,波动率下降但敏感度上升。油市表现也可能通过风险偏好外溢至能源板块、商品货币及相关市场。
一、全球原油供需前景:IEA 月报核心要点
国际能源署(IEA)最新原油月报显示,全球石油需求虽较去年降温,但整体依旧保持韧性 [1]。先进经济体消费表现好于预期,有效抵消部分新兴市场的疲弱需求。IEA 预计 2025–2026 年全球石油需求将保持温和增长。然而在供应方面,如果 OPEC+ 维持当前产量政策且需求不出现明显下滑,全球石油市场未来数个季度可能重新进入“边际紧平衡”状态。IEA 同时指出,高油价、全球经济放缓、电动车渗透等因素正在逐步压制需求增速,使油市呈现出“短期紧平衡、长期温和宽松”的结构。
二、多机构观点对比:OPEC、EIA 与 OECD 数据
三大机构对于未来市场平衡的看法存在显著差异,这主要源于对非 OPEC+ 供应增长和需求韧性的不同假设。总体来看,市场普遍认同未来供应将更加充裕,但对于过剩的规模和时间点存在分歧。

图 3:三大机构对 2025-2026 年需求与供应增长的预测对比,显示供应增长普遍超过需求增长,预示市场将进入供应过剩周期。
OPEC 的观点相对乐观。OPEC 预计 2025 年全球石油需求将增长约 130 万桶/日,2026 年略高至 140 万桶/日 [2]。与此同时,OPEC 在最新报告中连续上调非 OPEC 供给预期,并首次将 2026 年市场从“短缺”调整为“小幅过剩”,反映其判断未来供应增长可能快于需求。
EIA 的判断更偏向供应充裕。EIA 上调了美国页岩油产量预测,指出 2025 年美国原油产量将创历史新高。同时,全球供应预期被上调至日均 1.06 亿桶,高于全球消费的 1.041 亿桶,意味着未来库存可能持续累积 [3]。EIA 预期 2025–2026 年库存增加将对油价形成中期压力。
OECD 库存虽然持续回升,但仍低于五年均值。IEA 数据显示,今年全球观测库存前八个月净增约 2 亿桶,但 OECD 商业库存仍比五年均值低约 6700 万桶。整体来看,库存虽然恢复,但仍处历史偏低区间,使油市对供应中断的敏感度依旧很高。

图 1:OECD 商业原油库存近 5 年对比最新水平,显示库存虽有回升但仍低于五年均值。
三、原油价格走势:WTI 与 Brent 如何消化预期
2023 年下半年,布伦特因供应紧张和地缘冲突预期一度突破每桶 90 美元。然而进入 2024–2025 年,随着供应回升和库存恢复,油价整体震荡下移。近期价格承压主要来自供应过剩预期强化以及美国库存意外上升。

图 2:WTI 与 Brent 价格从 2025 年初的高位回落,近期在 60–70 美元区间震荡。
尽管地缘事件偶尔推升价格,但反弹难以持续,因为供应宽松的结构性预期迅速重新主导市场。WTI 与 Brent 的期限结构一度出现小幅 Contango,显示短期供应充裕压制近端价格,而远月因长期需求预期而保持相对坚挺。整体来看,油市呈现低波动、弱趋势但对消息高度敏感的特征。
四、驱动油市的关键变量:地缘政治与供应端不确定性
运输通道风险仍是油市最大的潜在冲击点之一。全球三分之一海运原油经过霍尔木兹海峡,一旦受阻便可能引发油价剧烈波动。衍生品定价显示断供概率虽低,但属于典型的“低概率、高冲击”事件。
OPEC+ 的政策滞后性也带来结构性波动。减产会压低库存、推高价格,但高油价又刺激非 OPEC 增产,使市场重新宽松。美国页岩油增速放缓进一步加剧供应端的不确定性,削弱其作为“摇摆产能”的角色。此外,俄罗斯、伊朗等国因制裁和冲突导致出口波动,更加剧油市敏感性。
五、油市变化的外溢影响
能源板块通常与油价同方向变动,但反应速度较油价更平缓。油价对风险偏好的溢出效应也容易影响澳元等商品货币。大宗商品价格上行往往提升商品出口国的贸易条件与风险情绪,而价格下跌则可能压制相关货币表现。
六、原油市场风险提示
- 数据发布风险: EIA 每周库存、IEA 与 OPEC 月报可能导致短线波动。
- 地缘政治风险: 产油区冲突、海运通道中断、制裁变化均可能影响供需平衡。
- 宏观风险: 利率政策、美元走势及全球经济增速变化都可能改变需求前景。
结语
IEA 最新展望显示,全球油市进入“边际紧平衡”阶段:库存修复但仍偏低,供应端不确定性大于需求端。在这种结构性环境下,油市会对政策、地缘事件与供给变化表现出高度敏感。理解供需框架、关注库存趋势与识别关键风险,将是未来判断油市走向的关键。
参考资料
[1] IEA (International Energy Agency). (2025, October). Oil Market Report - October 2025. https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-october-2025
[2] OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries). (2025, November). Monthly Oil Market Report. https://publications.opec.org/momr
[3] EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration). (2025, November). Short-Term Energy Outlook. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
