IntroductionSo, what is a Trading Edge?There is much written and many videos on social media that are out there singing the praises of developing a trading edge, and why it is a must if you want trading success, BUY in terms of practical “how do a get one” advice, most that is written seems to fall short of something substantive that you as a trader can work with.When you read articles discussing the concept of an "edge," they're talking about having some kind of advantage over other market participants; after all, there are always winners and losers in every trade.However, many traders are often mistakenly informed that edge relates solely to a system, but the reality is that it encompasses so much more than that. While systems certainly matter, your edge also includes how you think, act, and execute under pressure when YOUR real money is on the line.Your advantage may stem from speed, knowledge, technology, or experience, or better still a combination of all of these, the key point here is that you're not trading like so many others without the appropriate things in place and the consistency that is required when trading any asset class, on any timeframe to achieve on-going positive outcomes.Here's something worth considering before we have a deeper dive into your SEVEN secrets. Simply having a plan, trading it consistently, and evaluating it regularly gives you an advantage over more than 75% of traders out there. Most market participants lack these basic but critical elements of good trading practice. Just doing these fundamental things already puts you ahead of most, but refining further will truly set you apart from the crowd.At its core, a trading edge can be defined as a consistent, testable advantage that improves your odds over time. It's not about achieving perfection but developing repeatability in results and establishing statistically positive, i.e. evidence-based action that will work in your favour.So, despite what you may have seen or heard previously, a complete edge combines idea generation, timing, risk management, and execution; it's not just about focusing on high probability entries. It's a whole process, not a single isolated rule or signal.Just to give an example, a trading system that wins only 48% of the time may not seem that impressive on the surface to many, but if it consistently delivers a 2.5:1 reward-to-risk ratio can still achieve long-term profitability. The key issue in this example is the combination of numbers that creates the result, AND the word consistently.That IS an edge.In this article, we will explore SIX things that are not so regularly talked about in combination, this is the difference, and an approach that can move you towards creating such an edge.As we move through each of these, use this as your trading checklist for potentially taking action on the things that you need to take to the next level, and so take affirmative steps to sharpen your edge.Secret #1: An Edge Is Something You Build, Not Something You FindAs traders, we are always looking for the “holy grail”, that system or indicator that means we will be a success. As previously discussed, that is NOT what constitutes an edge. We need to let go of the idea that there's something magical waiting to be discovered and get to work on the things we need to.Your edge comes from testing, refining, and aligning strategies with your personal strengths and market access. The best edges are customised to your specific goals and circumstances, not simply downloaded from someone else's playbook, you may have heard on a webinar, conference or TikTok post.Your strategies should be a natural fit with your daily routine, available tools, trading purposes, and emotional style. If your approach you choose clashes with your lifestyle, mindset or experience, your execution and results will invariably suffer when you are in the heat of the market action and have decisions to make. For example, if you are a trader working a full-time job, it may be wise to either build a 4-hour chart trend model that matches your limited availability, consider some form of automation or restrict yourself to small windows of opportunity on very short timeframes for times that you can ringfence.We often come across systems that look attractive on the surface. When you copy others, you might get their trades, but you won't have their conviction (belief in your trading system is critical in terms of execution discipline) or context, e.g., their access to markets, and so you will find that you won't match their published results.Without the required deeper understanding of why a strategy works, you'll struggle to stick with it through the inevitable trades that don’t go your way, and drawdowns that WILL always test your resolve to keep with any system.So, the key takeaway is that you must make the investment in time, in yourself as a trader and do the work as you move towards building your edge. There are no shortcuts!Secret #2: Probability of Your Edge Is Only as Good as Your DataData that you can use in your decision-making for system development and refinement can come from accessing historical test data, but more importantly, YOUR results in live market trading (whether from journaling or automated tracking).The strength of this in developing an edge depends directly on two key things.Firstly, on data being clean, i.e. the key numbers relating to what happened, and sufficient detail with a sufficient critical mass of results that allows you to see beyond the profit/loss of a handful of trades. The meticulous recording to a high quality of this evidence makes it a priority if you are to create something meaningful on which to base decisions.Poor data creates false confidence in any system developed on such with fragile strategy and forces you to rely on guesswork to fill in any gaps or because you simply haven’t got enough numbers on which to make a strategic decision.Think about this for a moment, if you have 60 trades, across three strategies, and then of those 20 trades per strategy, 10 are FX and 10 are stock CFDS, and of those 10, 5 are long and 5 are short trades, to make substantive decisions on 5 trades hardly seems like enough evidence on which to base something so important. To think that this is ok, go full tilt into the market, your confidence based on a sample so small, there is a high chance your strategy will likely break under real market pressure.Always ensure the market conditions in your testing environment reasonably match your live trading environment.Even when using backtests to try to get more evidence, which on the surface seems worthwhile, it is not without pitfalls unless due care is taken. For example, back tests performed exclusively during trending market periods won't adequately prepare your system for range-bound price action.Secret #3: Simplicity May Beat Complexity Under PressureSimple systems prove easier to create, allow you to find errors when they are occurring, and of course follow in the heat of inevitably volatile market moments. The more clarity you have about exactly what to do and when, significantly reduces hesitation and increases follow-through when decisive trading action may matter most.A complex system, as a contrast, increases your “thinking load”, slows your reaction time when speed of decision may count, and if you have 14 criteria to tick before action, may lead to the “that’s close enough” temptation for trade actions. Adding more indicators without evidence rarely does anything but make your charts look more impressive and typically leads to more doubt and “short-cutting” rather than better results.As a formula, more rules = more system and trader fragility, which is potentially a good rule of thumb to have in place.Consider how some automation, for example, the use of exit-only EAS, can help simplify the execution of otherwise complex situations and achieve consistency.It is not inconceivable that a trader using a simple price-only breakout strategy consistently outperforms another with a 12-indicator system by executing cleanly during volatile news events when others freeze with so-called “analysis paralysis”.Secret #4: Edge Disappears Without Execution DisciplineYou could have the most brilliant, robustly tested, evidence-based strategy on the planet and yet the reality of why many traders fail to reach their potential is at the point of action. Plans are often skipped, rushed, or mismanaged, and the harsh reality is that your system of systems that you have invested a considerable amount of effort and time to develop may crumble without precise, consistent and disciplined execution.Emotional interference in decision making is something we discuss regularly at education sessions, whether from fear of loss, greed, revenge trading or the fear of missing out on potential profit, can kill performance, even when presented with textbook setups and times when price action is telling you it is time to get out. Even momentary lapses in judgment and actions originating from cognitive biases can undo hours or days of careful preparation or remove the profit from several previous trades.Recency bias can creep in quickly, even after a couple of losses, where hesitation in action in an attempt to avoid the same again costs you the opportunity that the “plan-following” trade can give you.What brings your edge to life is consistency in action, not just having a good plan. The discipline of follow-through can transform a considered and carefully developed system into actual profits, and quite simply, to fail to do this is unlikely to deliver the results you seek.Secret #5: Evolve or Expire — Markets Consistently Change, So Should YouMarket circumstances, fundamental drivers and shifts in these create different conditions not only in price action and direction, but volatility and effects in sentiment can be changed for the long term, not just the next hour. If markets evolve to a new way of acting, it is logical that your systems must, at a minimum, be able to accommodate this. This is part of your potential edge that few traders master (or even look at!), but your systems must evolve accordingly when markets change. What works brilliantly in the last few months may not necessarily work forever—diligently monitor changes and adjust your approach.Static systems will potentially degrade in outcomes without regular review and adaptation, or at best have significant periods of underperformance. Perhaps think of your strategy as requiring a review and maintenance plan like any sophisticated machine.In practical terms, system evolution means identifying when strategies do well and not so well, including evaluation of performance in different market conditions. With this information, you can make informed changes based on evidence, not random tinkering or looking for the next new indicator to add.Remember, you always have the ultimate sanction of switching a strategy off completely during specific market conditions that may mean risk is increased.Secret #6: Effective Risk Management Is an Edge MultiplierIt is difficult when talking about a multi-factor approach to hone down on the most influential factor, but this may be it.Your position sizing approach in not only single but multiple trades determines whether your edge, even when followed to the letter, can scale profitably or self-destruct dramatically. The same system can either give you ongoing positive outcomes or destroy an account based depending on how you size your positions.Risk too much, and you'll potentially blow your account up; risk too little, and you'll generate gains that make little difference to the choice you can make with any trading success.Your sizing should align with both your system's statistical properties as we discussed before and your psychological comfort zone, as the latter is equally something that will develop over time with sufficient belief in your system – a key factor as we have discussed at length in other articles, in the ability to be disciplined in trade execution.Only scale your position sizing after accumulating a critical mass of trades and establishing a clear set of rules based on a record of positive trading metrics for doing so. Premature scaling should only be done when you have proved not only that your system looks as though it performed favourably but also that you have the consistency to move to the next level.Finally on this point, and perhaps the topic of a future article in more detail, concerning the previous point relating to market conditions, once you have developed a way of identifying market conditions and fine tune strategies accordingly, there is of course the possibility of using this information to position size more effectively, To give a simple example something like market condition A =1% risk, market condition B = 2% risk.Summary and Your Actions...As stated earlier, a good approach to this article is to use it as a checklist. Invest some time to review the material covered here and make a judgment of where you are right now with some of the things covered.For some of you, there may be a few things to work on; for others, it may be just some checking and fine-tuning. Either way, identify at least one specific area to work on immediately. One insight that you implement properly is worth far more in terms of the difference it can make than a few insights you just acknowledge but forget to take action on.Ask yourself honestly: "On a scale of 1-10, how do I perform on each of the above in the pursuit of my current trading edge?Or perhaps where would I like it to be six months from now?"Build yourself a roadmap to achieve these, and of course, commit to and follow through in making it happen.
The 6 Secrets of Developing a Trading Edge – What it is and how you get one!

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The decision to scale (increase the traded lot size of a specific EA) should be based on statistical evidence that indicates your EA has the potential to perform to certain expectations.
Equal weight should be given to the decision to scale, as to the initial decision to deploy an EA. This guide provides an indicative approach on how to put together and action your scaling plan.
Before You Start Your Scaling Plan
Important: this should be an individual plan that is consistent with your personal trading objectives, your EA portfolio, and your personal financial situation (including account size).
We are going to use a starting lot of 0.10 per trade in the examples in this document —you want to adjust this based on your own risk tolerance.
Whatever your chosen lot size start point, EA scaling should be a pre-planned incremental approach, scaling stepwise based on performance metrics you are seeing in your live trading account.
You should also have assessed the current margin usage of your EA portfolio exposure to ensure that any scaling and related increased margin requirements are appropriate to the size of your account.
Suggested Scaling Baseline Requirements
Scaling should only be performed when your EA is performing to what you deem to be a good standard. To make this judgment, you need to set some minimum performance standards.
The past performance of your EA is not a guarantee of future performance. If market conditions change, you must remain vigilant and continue to measure performance on an ongoing basis for every live EA you have.
You need to define the key metrics that are important to you.
Two important metrics to include are:
- The number of trades: to provide some evidence of reliability
- The period of time: to have had exposure to at least some variation in market conditions
Example of how you may lay your metrics out in a table:

Some may choose to include proximity to original expectations of other metrics, such as minimum win rate, average profit in winning trades, and average loss in those that go against you.
It should only be after your metrics are met that lot scaling begins on any specific EA.
Lot Size Scaling Ladder
Below is an example of a performance-based scaling plan assuming a 0.10-lot baseline.
Again, this is indicative. It provides a framework with clear review dates and an approach that illustrates incremental scaling. You must still define a regime that is right for your specific trading objectives.

Risk Guardrails
It is vital to keep an eye on your general account risks and have limits in place that guide your EA use.
Such limits must be constant across all stages of scaling and referenced beyond the risk of a single EA, but to your portfolio as a whole.:
Per-Trade Risk (Nominal)
Trade risk for any one trade should be seen in the context of account size and the dollar risk based on the risk parameters you have set for your EA.
Specify a maximum percentage of the account balance — a $200 loss is more impactful on a $1000 account compared to a $10,000 account.
Stick to what is right for you in terms of your tolerable risk level based on your trading objectives and financial situation. A common suggestion is a 1-2% risk of account equity per trade.
Total Open Exposure
Specifying maximum exposure in the number of EAs open at any time and those that use the same asset class is important for overall portfolio risk management.
There are tools you can use to monitor exposure risk generally, as well as those that can be used to indicate single asset exposure.
Margin Usage
It is always desirable that your set exit approaches and parameter levels are what your exits are based on. It should not be because your margin usage has meant you have moved into a margin call situation.
Specify a minimum level to adhere to and make sure that your account is sufficiently funded. If volatility or slippage rises (e.g., news events or illiquid sessions), reduce lot size temporarily.
Scaling Psychology – Managing “Big Numbers”
As lot sizes rise, your emotions may respond accordingly when you see the larger dollar amounts that your EA is generating.
If you are used to seeing an average profit of $100 and average loss of $50, and suddenly you are seeing significantly bigger numbers, it creates an emotional challenge where you may be tempted to do a “discretionary override”.
Although there are situations, such as major market events, overexposure in a specific asset, or VPS or account system problems, where such intervention may be considered, generally this would distort the actual performance evaluation of your EA and is not encouraged (unless it is pre-planned).
The table below presents some of the generally accepted challenges and offers suggestions on how to manage them.

Your Plan Into Action…
In practical terms, your scaling plan should have two components:
- The key parameters for action on your chosen key metrics
- Specified periodic review times to make your next scaling decision
This is not a race. Having systems in place facilitates creating the opportunity that scaling brings while still mitigating the risks.

You've been using a 30-pip trailing stop for as long as you can remember. It feels professional, manageable and relatively safe.
But during volatile sessions, you see your winners get stopped out prematurely, while low-volatility winners drift back and hit stops that are relatively too tight.
Same 30 pips, different market contexts, but inconsistent in the protection of profit and overall results.
The Fixed-Pip Fallacy?
Traders gravitate toward fixed pip trailing stops because they feel concrete and calculable. The approach is easy to execute, readily automated through platforms like MetaTrader, and aligns with how most people naturally think about profit and loss.
But this simplicity masks a fundamental problem.
A twenty-five pip move in EURUSD during the London open represents an entirely different market event than the same move during the Asian session. The context matters, yet the fixed-pip approach treats them identically.
This becomes even more problematic when you consider different currency pairs. GBPJPY might have an average true range of thirty pips on an hourly chart, while EURGBP shows only ten. The same trailing stop applied to both instruments ignores the reality that volatility varies dramatically across pairs.
Timeframe introduces yet another layer of complexity. Take AUDUSD as an example: a ten-pip move on a four-hour chart barely registers as meaningful price action, but on a five-minute chart it represents a significant swing. The fixed-pip method treats these scenarios as equivalent.
The natural response might be to use something more sophisticated, like an ATR multiple. This accounts for your chosen timeframe, the instrument's normal volatility, and even session differences. But it brings its own complications.
When do you measure the ATR? Do you use the value at entry, knowing it might be distorted by sessional effects? Or do you make it dynamic, which becomes far more complex to implement in practice?
Perhaps there's another way forward that doesn't rely on abstract measures of volatility but instead responds directly to the movement of price in relation to the trade you're actually in—accounting for your lot size and the profit you've already captured.
Maximum Give Back: The Percentage Approach
Instead of asking "how do I protect profit after fifty pips," ask "how do I protect profit after giving back a certain percentage of open gains."
Consider a maximum give-back threshold of 40%. When your trade is up one hundred pips, the trailing stop activates if price retraces forty pips from peak, locking in a minimum of sixty pips.
But when that same trade reaches two hundred fifty pips of profit, the stop adjusts, and now it activates at a one-hundred-pip pullback, securing at least one hundred fifty pips. The stop distance scales naturally with the magnitude of the win you're sitting on.
This creates a logical asymmetry that fixed pip approaches miss entirely. Small winners receive tighter protection. Big winners get room to breathe.
The approach adapts automatically to what the market is actually giving you in real time, without requiring you to predict anything in advance.
You don't need to maintain a reference table where EURUSD gets thirty pips and GBPJPY gets sixty. You don't need different standards for different instruments at all.
The same 40% logic works whether the average true range is high or low, whether volatility is expanding or contracting. It is designed to be more adaptive to regime changes than fixed-pip stops, potentially requiring less manual recalibration as it's responding to the trade itself rather than to abstract measures of what the instrument normally does.
The market tells you how much it's willing to move in your direction, and you protect that information proportionally. Nothing more complicated than that.
Key Parameters to Specify in Your System:
- Maximum Give Back Percent: 30-50% is typical, but is dependent on how much profit retracement you can tolerate.
- Minimum Profit to Activate: In dollar amount or an ATR multiple form entry. This prevents premature exits on tiny winners, e.g., if it has moved 5 pips at 40% that would mean you are only locking in a 3-pip profit.
- Update Frequency: Potentially every bar. More frequent, but there may be issues if there is a limited ability to look at the market (if using some sort of automation, this could be programmed).
Is Maximum Giveback Always the Optimum Trail?
As with many approaches, results can be highly dependent on underlying market conditions. It is important to be balanced.
The table below summarises some observations when maximum giveback has been used as part of automated exits.

The major difference isn’t likely to be an increased win rate. It is about keeping more of your runners during high-volatility price moves rather than donating them back to the market.
It may not always be the best approach, as different strategies often merit different exit approaches.
There are two obvious scenarios where fixed pips may still be worth consideration.
- Very short-term scalping (sub-20 pip targets)
- News trading, where you want instant hard stops
Integrating Maximum Giveback With Your System
You may have other complementary exit filters in place that you already use. Remember, the ideal is often a combination of exits, with whichever is triggered first.
There is no reason why this approach will not work well with approaches such as set stops, take profits and partial closes (where you simply use maximum Giveback in the remainder as well as time-based exits.
Final Thoughts
To use fixed-pip trailing stops irrespective of instrument pricing, volatility, timeframe, and sessional considerations is the trading equivalent of wearing the same jacket in summer and winter.
Maximum Give Back trailing adjusts to the ‘market weather’. It won't make bad trades good, but it could help stop you from cutting your best trades short just because your stop was designed for average conditions.
The market doesn't trade in averages but has specific likely moves dependent on context. Your exits should not be average either.

Multi-Timeframe (MTF) analysis is not just about checking the trend on the daily before trading on the hourly; ideally, it involves examining and aligning context, structure, and timing so that every trade is placed with purpose.
When done correctly, MTF analysis can filter market noise, may help with timing of entry, and assist you in trading with the trending “tide,” not against it.
Why Multi-Timeframe Analysis Matters
Every setup exists within a larger market story, and that story may often define the probability of a successful trade outcome.
Single-timeframe trading leads to the trading equivalent of tunnel vision, where the series of candles in front of you dominate your thinking, even though the broader trend might be shifting.
The most common reason traders may struggle is a false confidence based on a belief they are applying MTF analysis, but in truth, it’s often an ad-hoc, glance, not a structured process.
When signals conflict, doubt creeps in, and traders hesitate, entering too late or exiting too early.
A systematic MTF process restores clarity, allowing you to execute with more conviction and consistency, potentially offering improved trading outcomes and providing some objective evidence as to how well your system is working.
Building Your Timeframe Hierarchy
Like many effective trading approaches, the foundation of a good MTF framework lies in simplicity. The more complex an approach, the less likely it is to be followed fully and the more likely it may impede a potential opportunity.
Three timeframes are usually enough to capture the full picture without cluttering up your chart’s technical picture with enough information to avoid potential contradiction in action.
Each timeframe tells a different part of the story — you want the whole book, not just a single chapter.

Scalpers might work on H1-M15-M5, while longer-term traders might prefer H4-H1-H15.
The key is consistency in approach to build a critical mass of trades that can provide evidence for evaluation.
When all three timeframes align, the probability of at least an initial move in your desired direction may increase.
An MTF breakout will attract traders whose preference for primary timeframe may be M15 AND hourly, AND 4-hourly, so increasing potential momentum in the move simply because more traders are looking at the same breakout than if it occurred on a single timeframe only.
Applying MTF Analysis
A robust system is built on clear, unambiguous statements within your trading plan.
Ideally, you should define what each timeframe contributes to your decision-making process:
- Trend confirmed
- Structure validated
- Entry trigger aligned
- Risk parameters clear
When you enter on a lower timeframe, you are gaining some conviction from the higher one. Use the lower timeframe for fine-tuning and risk control, but if the higher timeframe flips direction, your bias must flip too.
Your original trading idea can be questioned and a decision made accordingly as to whether it is a good decision to stay in the trade or, as a minimum action, trail a stop loss to lock in any gains made to date.
Putting MTF into Action
So, if the goal is to embed MTF logic into your trade decisions, some step-by-step guidance may be useful on how to make this happen
1. Define Your Timeframe Stack
Decide which three timeframes form your trading style-aligned approach.
The key here is that as a starting point, you must “plant your flag” in one set, stick to it and measure to see how well or otherwise it works.
Through doing this, you can refine based on evidence in the future.
One tip I have heard some traders suggest is that the middle timeframe should be at least two times your primary timeframe, and the slowest timeframe at least four times.
2. Build and Use a Checklist
Codify your MTF logic into a repeatable routine of questions to ask, particularly in the early stages of implementing this as you develop your new habit.
Your checklist might include:
- Is the higher-timeframe trend aligned?
- Is the structure supportive?
- Do I have a valid trigger?
- Is risk clearly defined?
This turns MTF from a concept into a practical set of steps that are clear and easy to action.
3. Consider Integrating MTF Into Open Trade Management
MTF isn’t just for entries; it can also be used as part of your exit decision-making.
If your higher timeframe begins showing early signs of reversal, that’s a prompt to exit altogether, scale out through a partial close or tighten stops.
By managing trades through the same multi-timeframe approach that you used to enter, you maintain logical consistency across the entire lifecycle of the trade.
Final Action
Start small. Choose one instrument, one timeframe set, and one strategy to apply it to.
Observe the clarity it adds to your decisions and outcomes. Once you see a positive impact, you have evidence that it may be worth rolling out across other trading strategies you use in your portfolio.
Final Thought
Multi-Timeframe Analysis is not a trading strategy on its own. It is a worthwhile consideration in ALL strategies.
It offers a wider lens through which you see the market’s true structure and potential strength of conviction.
Through aligning context, structure, and execution, you move from chasing an individual group of candles to trading with a more robust support for a decision.
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过去一个月,澳元兑人民币出现了明显的双向波动。波幅扩大是多重因素共同叠加的结果,其中最核心的影响来自以下三个方向:中澳两国最新的经济数据差异、货币政策预期的变化以及大宗商品价格与全球风险情绪的轮动。
中澳经济数据出现新的反向变化
在澳大利亚方面,最新季度通胀读数高于市场预期,显示服务类价格具有粘性,而就业数据则呈现出复杂的变化特征。失业率在九月短暂上升至百分之四点五后,十月回落至百分之四点三,当月新增就业四万两千两百人。尽管最新数据显示劳动力市场韧性犹存,但整体紧张程度相比上半年已有所缓解。通胀偏高与就业市场的复杂变化同时出现,令澳元对每一次数据公布都更加敏感。
在中国方面,物价水平在过去一个月出现温和回升。CPI从此前的负增长回到小幅正值,但整体物价环境依然处于较低水平。同期官方制造业PMI重新跌回收缩区间,显示需求疲弱仍然是关键压力点。房地产和出口相关指标依然偏弱,不过随着部分稳增长政策落地,市场对中国经济的预期有所改善。
两国经济数据走向出现明显差异,澳大利亚面临通胀韧性和增长放缓并存,中国面临需求不足但物价改善的结构。这种正反交叉使得AUDCNH在过去一个月对每组宏观数据都表现出更高敏感度。
货币政策预期的变化放大汇率波动
澳洲联储在最新会议中维持利率不变,并强调由于通胀下降速度慢于预期,政策需要更长的观察期。此前市场对降息的预期有所弱化,因此当RBA释放任何谨慎信号时,澳元短期波动会更明显。
中国央行在此期间保持政策利率稳定并继续维持稳健偏宽的整体框架,同时减少了全面宽松的迹象,转而更多依赖结构性工具和流动性管理。市场普遍认为,在人民币汇率趋稳前,政策不会急于进一步下调利率。
在过去一个月里,澳洲联储维持谨慎观望,中国央行维持稳健偏宽但不进一步降息,两者的政策方向差异使汇率对政策相关消息更为敏感。
大宗商品与全球风险情绪
作为典型的商品货币,澳元在过去一个月中明显受到大宗商品价格波动的影响。铁矿石价格整体维持在高位震荡,市场在宏观偏弱的背景下更多依靠对政策预期的乐观情绪支撑价格。铜价在十月底出现阶段性走高,但进入十一月后呈现震荡走势。这些变化使澳元在短期内更容易受到商品市场情绪影响。
全球风险情绪也出现快速切换。中东局势、国际关系进展以及美国货币政策预期反复,使市场在避险与风险偏好之间来回转换。由于澳元与风险情绪关联更高,而人民币在政策调节下表现相对稳定,这种情绪轮动进一步放大了双方的短期波幅。
此外,临近年底,国际资金在重新平衡投资组合、调整仓位和降低风险敞口时,往往会导致市场流动性下降,也使AUDCNH在过去一个月出现更大的短期波动。
结论
在2025年10月下旬至11月下旬期间,AUDCNH的波动加大主要来自三个方向。第一,中澳两国的宏观经济数据出现差异性变化,令市场对每次数据更新的反应放大。第二,央行政策预期同时发生调整,使汇率对货币政策沟通更加敏感。第三,大宗商品和全球风险情绪不断轮动,在商品货币和政策调节下的人民币之间形成更显著的短期波动。
整体来看,这些因素叠加,使AUDCNH在此期间表现出更高的波动性,并更容易受到宏观数据、央行表态以及全球市场情绪的驱动。
参考文献
[1] Trading Economics. (2025, October 29). Australia Q3 Inflation Rate Hits 5-Quarter High. Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/inflation-cpi
[2] Trading Economics. (2025, November 26). Australia Inflation Rate Exceeds Forecasts. Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/inflation-cpi/news/504959
[3] Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2025, November 13). Unemployment rate falls to 4.3%. Retrieved from https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/unemployment-rate-falls-43
[4] CNBC. (2025, November 9). China consumer prices return to growth in October. Retrieved from https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/09/china-october-cpi-ppi-deflation-consumer-prices-.html
[5] CNBC. (2025, October 31). China manufacturing slump deepens to 6-month low in October. Retrieved from https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/31/china-manufacturing-pmi-october-.html
[6] CNBC. (2025, November 27). China industrial profits drop 5.5% in October, worst level in five months. Retrieved from https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/27/china-industrial-profits-drop-in-october-worst-level-in-five-months-trade-uncertainty.html
[7] Reserve Bank of Australia. (2025, November 4). Monetary Policy Decision. Retrieved from https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2025/mr-25-31.html
[8] Reserve Bank of Australia. (2025, November 3). In Brief: Statement on Monetary Policy – November 2025. Retrieved from https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2025/nov/
[9] Reuters. (2025, November 26). Australia's inflation stubbornly high in October, closing door on rate cuts. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australias-inflation-picks-up-october-rate-cut-bets-fade-2025-11-26/
[10] Reuters. (2025, November 20). China leaves benchmark lending rates unchanged for the sixth straight month. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-leaves-benchmark-lending-rates-unchanged-6th-straight-month-november-2025-11-20/
[11] LYH Steel. (2025, November 20). Iron Ore Price November 2025 Holds Above $104. Retrieved from https://lyhsteel.com/iron-ore-price-november-2025-holds-above-104/
[12] Trading Economics. (2025, November 27). Copper - Price - Chart - Historical Data. Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/copper
[13] ROIC.ai. (2025, November 25). CBOE Volatility Index Drops to Near Two-Week Low as Market Fear Recedes. Retrieved from https://www.roic.ai/news/cboe-volatility-index-drops-to-near-two-week-low-as-market-fear-recedes-11-25-2025
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One of the most impactful books I’ve ever read is “The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People: Powerful Lessons in Personal Change” by Stephen Covey.
When it was first published in 1989, it quickly became one of the most influential works in business and personal development literature, and retained its place on bestseller lists for the next couple of decades.
The compelling, comprehensive, and structured framework for personal growth presented in the book has undoubtedly inspired many to rethink how they organise their lives and priorities, both professionally and personally.
Although its lessons were originally designed for self-improvement and positive structured growth, the underlying principles are universal, making them easily transferable to many areas of life, including trading.
In this article, you will explore how each of Covey’s seven original habits can be reframed within a trading context, in an attempt to offer a structure that may help guide you to becoming the best trader you can be.

1. Be Proactive
Being proactive means recognising that we have the power to choose our responses and to shape outcomes through appropriate preparation with subsequent planned reactions.
In a Trading Context:
For traders, this means anticipating potential problems before they arise and putting measures in place to better mitigate risk.
Rather than waiting for issues to unfold, the proactive trader identifies potential areas of concern and ensures that they have access to the right tools, resources, and people to prepare effectively, whatever the market may throw at them.
What This Means for You:
Being proactive may involve seeking out quality education and services, maintaining access to accurate and timely market information, continually assessing risk and opportunity, and having systems to manage those risks within defined limits.
Consequences of Non-Action:
Inadequate preparation and a lack of defined systems often lead to poor trading decisions and less-than-desired outcomes.
Failing to assess risk properly can result in significant and often avoidable losses.
By contrast, a proactive approach builds resilience and confidence, ensuring that when challenges arise, your response is measured and less emotionally driven by what is happening on the screen in front of you.
2. Begin with the End in Mind
Covey's second habit is about defining purpose. It suggests that effective people are more likely to achieve what is possible if they start with a clear understanding of their destination, so every action aligns with that ultimate vision.
In a Trading Context:
Ask yourself: What is my true purpose for trading?
Many traders may instinctively answer “to make money,” but money is surely only a vehicle to achieve something else in your world for you and those you care about, not a purpose per se.
You need to clarify what trading success really means for you.
Is it a greater degree of financial independence through increased income or capital growth, the freedom of having more time, achieving a personal challenge of becoming an effective trader, or a combination of any of these?
What This Means to You:
Try framing your purpose as, “I must become a better trader so that I can…” and complete a list with your genuine reasons for tackling the market and its challenges.
This helps you establish meaningful short-term development goals that keep you moving toward your vision. Keep that purpose visible, as a note near your trading screen that reminds you why you are doing this.
Consequences of Non-Action:
Traders with a clearly defined purpose are more likely to stay disciplined and consistent.
Those without one often drift, chasing short-term gains without direction. There is ample evidence that formalising your development in whatever context through goal setting can significantly increase the likelihood of success. Why would trading be any different?
Surely the bottom-line question to ask yourself is, “Am I willing to risk my potential by trading without purpose?”
3. Put First Things First
This habit is about time management and prioritisation. This involves focusing your efforts and energy on what truly matters. As part of the exploration of this concept, Covey emphasised distinguishing between what is important and what is merely urgent.
In a Trading Context:
Trading demands commitment, learning, and reflection.
It is not just about screen time but about using that time effectively.
Managing activities to ensure your effort is spent wisely on planning, measuring, journaling and performance evaluation, and refining systems, accordingly, are all critical to sustaining both improvements in results and balance.
What This Means to You:
Traders often believe they need to spend more time trading when what they really need is to focus on better time allocation.
It is logical to suggest that prioritising activities that can often contribute directly to improvement, such as system testing, reviewing performance, analysing results, and refining your strategy, is worthwhile.
These high-value tasks can help traders focus their time more deliberately and systematically.
Consequences of Non-Action:
If you fail to control your trading time effectively, you will be more likely to spend much of it on low-impact activities that produce little progress.
Over time, this not only hurts your results but also reduces the real “hourly value” of your trading effort.
In business terms, and of course, you should be treating your trading as you would any business activity; poor prioritisation can inflate your costs and diminish your potential trading outcomes.
4. Think Win: Win
Covey's fourth habit encouraged an attitude of mutual benefit, where seeking solutions that facilitate positive outcomes for all parties.
In a Trading Context:
In trading, this concept must be adapted to suggest that developing a mindset that recognises every well-executed plan as a win, even when an individual trade results in a loss.
Some trading ideas will simply not work out, and so some losses are inevitable, but if they remain within defined limits, they should not be viewed as failures but rather as a successful adherence to a trading plan. In the aim of developing consistency in action, and the widely held belief that this is one of the cornerstones of effective trading, then it surely is a win to fulfil this.
So, in simple terms, the real “win” lies in a combination of maintaining discipline, following your system, and controlling risk beyond just looking at the P/L of a single trade.
What This Means to You:
Building and trading clear, unambiguous systems that you follow consistently has got to be the goal.
This process produces reliable data that you can later analyse and subsequently use to refine specific strategies and personal performance.
When you do this, every outcome, whether profit or loss, can serve as valuable feedback.
For example, a controlled loss that fits your plan is proof that your system works and that you are protecting your capital.
Alternatively, a trailing stop strategy, which means you exit trades in a timely way and give less profit back to the market, provides positive feedback that your system has merit in achieving outcomes.
Consequences of Non-Action:
Without this mindset shift, traders can become emotionally reactive, interpreting normal drawdowns as personal defeats.
This fosters loss aversion and other biases that can erode decision-making quality if left unchecked. Through the process of redefining “winning,” you are potentially safeguarding both your capital and, importantly, your trading confidence (a key component of trading discipline).
5. Seek First to Understand and Then Take Action
Covey's fifth habit emphasises empathy, the act of listening and aiming to fully understand before responding. In trading, this principle translates to understanding the market environment before taking any action.
In a Trading Context:
Many traders act impulsively, driven by excitement or fear, which often results in entering trades without taking into account the full context of what is happening in the market, and/or the potential short-term influences on sentiment that may increase risk.
This “minimalisation bias,” defined as acting on limited information, will rarely produce consistent results. Instead, adopt a process that begins with observation and comprehension.
What This Means to You:
Establishing a daily pre-trading routine is critical. This may include a review of key markets, sentiment indicators, and potential catalysts for change, such as imminent key data releases. Understanding what the market is telling you before you decide what to do is the aim of having this sort of daily agenda.
This approach may not only improve trade selection but also enable you to get into a state of psychological readiness that can facilitate decision-making quality throughout the session.
Consequences of Non-Action:
Failing to prepare for the trading day ahead can mean not only exposing yourself to unnecessary risk but also arguably being more likely to miss potential opportunities.
A trader who acts without understanding is vulnerable both psychologically and financially. Conversely, being forewarned is being forearmed. When you aim to understand markets first before any type of trading activity, your actions are more likely to be deliberate, grounded, and more effective.
6. Synergise
Synergy in Covey's model means valuing differences and combining the strengths of those around you to create outcomes greater than the sum of their parts.
In a Trading Context:
In trading, synergy refers to the integration of multiple systems and disciplines that work together. This includes your plan, your record keeping and performance management processes, your time management, and your emotional balance.
No single system is enough; success comes from the synergy of elements that support and inform one another.
What This Means to You:
Integrating learning and measurement is an integral part of your trading development process. Journaling, for example, allows you to assess not only your technical performance but also your behavioural consistency.
This self-awareness allows you to refine your plan and so helps you operate with greater confidence.
The synergy between rational analysis and emotional composure is what is more likely to lead to consistently sound trading decisions.
Consequences of Non-Action:
When logic and emotion are out of balance, decision-making will inevitably suffer.
If your systems are incomplete, ambiguous, or poorly connected to the reality of your current level of understanding, competence and confidence, your results are likely to be inconsistent. Building synergy across all areas of your trading practice, including that of evaluation and development in critical trading areas, will help create cohesion, efficiency, and better performance.
7. Sharpen the Saw
Covey's final habit focuses on continuous learning and refinement, including maintaining and improving the tools at your disposal and skills and knowledge that allow you to perform effectively.
In a Trading Context:
In trading, this translates to creating a plan to achieve ongoing, purposeful learning.
Even small insights can make a large difference in results. Effective traders continually refine their knowledge, ask new questions, and apply lessons from experience.
What This Means to You:
Trading learning can, of course, take many forms. Discovering new indicators that may offer some confluence to price action, testing different strategies, exploring new markets, or simply understanding more about yourself as a trader.
There is little doubt that active participation in learning keeps you engaged, adaptable and sharp. Even making sure you ask at least one question at a seminar or webinar or making a simple list at the end of each session of the "3 things I learned", can be invaluable in developing momentum for your growth as a trader.
Your record-keeping and performance metrics should generate fresh questions that can guide future development.
Consequences of Non-Action:
Without direction in your learning, your progress is likely to slow.
I often reference that when someone talks about trading experience in several years, this is only meaningful if there has been continuous growth, rather than staying in the same place every year (i.e. only one year of meaningful experience)
Passive trading learning, for example, reading an article without applying, watching a webinar without engagement, or measuring without closing the circle through putting an action plan together for your development, can all lead to stagnation.
It is fair to suggest that taking shortcuts in trading learning is likely to translate directly into shortcuts in result success.
Active, focused development is essential for sustained improvement.
Are You Ready for Action?
Stephen Covey’s The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People presented a timeless model for self-development and purposeful living.
When applied to trading, these same habits form a powerful framework for consistency, focus, and growth.
Trading is a pursuit that demands both technical skill and emotional strength. Success is rarely about finding the perfect system, but about developing the right habits that support consistent, rational decision-making over time.
By integrating the principles of Covey’s seven habits into your trading practice, you create a foundation not only for profitability but for continual personal growth.
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数据截至日期:2025年11月26日
货币政策决定

新西兰储备银行货币政策委员会于2025年11月26日星期三召开会议,以5票赞成1票反对的表决结果,决定将官方现金利率下调25个基点至2.25%。这是新西兰储备银行(RBNZ)自2024年8月以来第六次调整官方现金利率。自2024年8月至本次会议,官方现金利率从5.50%累计下调至2.25%,累计调整幅度为325个基点。 货币政策委员会在声明中表示,未来官方现金利率的调整将取决于中期通胀和经济前景的实际演变情况。委员会指出,降低官方现金利率将有助于巩固消费者和企业信心,并防范经济复苏速度低于实现通胀目标所需水平的风险。
委员会会议纪要披露的决策考量

图1:官方现金利率 / 基准利率(来源:RBNZ estimates.)
根据会议纪要记录,支持进一步降息的委员强调,经济中存在显著的超额产能,这为中期通胀回归并保持在2%目标中点附近提供了信心。委员会认为经济复苏处于早期阶段,通胀前景允许将更多重视放在避免产出和就业出现不必要的波动性上。保持当前宽松程度的货币条件将支撑经济活动的持久复苏。 投票反对的委员则强调,官方现金利率已经历了相当大幅度的下调,这些调整仍在传导至经济中。委员会表示,经济指标正在复苏,经济活动预期在2026年将增强。投票反对的委员特别强调了通胀和产出的上行风险,认为在本次会议维持官方现金利率不变将为未来降息提供选择空间。 委员会讨论了价格设定行为的风险。鉴于近期经历了高通胀环境且通胀预期仍略高于目标中点,企业定价行为可能对通胀上行意外变得更加敏感。经济中的闲置产能已经压缩了企业利润率,随着需求改善,利润率的某种程度恢复是预期的。如果这种利润率恢复发生得比预期更快,将构成通胀上行风险。 会议纪要还记录了委员会对复苏速度的不同看法。部分委员强调,家庭和企业持续谨慎可能进一步放缓国内需求复苏,这可能导致通胀低于目标中点。其他委员则强调,如果房价和家庭支出对较低抵押贷款利率的反应比假设的更强,可能导致中期通胀压力更具持续性。
通胀状况

图2:消费者价格指数通胀(来源:Stats NZ, RBNZ estimates.)

图3:总体通胀与核心通胀指标(来源:Stats NZ, RBNZ estimates.)
根据新西兰统计局数据,2025年9月季度消费者物价指数年率为3.0%,位于货币政策委员会1%至3%目标区间的上限。这一数据与8月货币政策声明的预期一致。 分项数据显示,可贸易品通胀年率从6月季度的1.2%上升至9月季度的2.2%。非贸易品通胀年率从6月季度的3.7%下降至9月季度的3.5%,与8月声明预期一致。 核心通胀指标方面,RBNZ编制的五项核心通胀指标在9月季度的平均值为2.4%,较此前峰值水平已显著下降。这五项指标在9月季度的变动方向不一,平均值略有下降。季度核心通胀指标平均保持不变,处于与年率2%通胀一致的水平。 RBNZ指出,年度核心通胀指标自2023年以来已显著下降,但仍处于目标区间的上半部分。 RBNZ预测,年度消费者物价指数通胀将在2025年12月季度降至2.7%,然后在2026年中期降至接近2%目标中点的水平,这一预测基于食品、家庭能源和地方政府费率的通胀率预期下降,以及闲置产能继续降低潜在通胀压力。
产出缺口评估

图4:实际产出与潜在产出(来源:Stats NZ, RBNZ estimates.)

图5:产出缺口及其指标体系(来源:Stats NZ, NZIER,MBIE,RBNZ estimates.)
RBNZ估计,新西兰经济自2024年中期以来出现了显著的闲置产能。由于季度GDP的波动性导致产出缺口估算也出现波动,但RBNZ估计2025年全年产出缺口平均约为潜在GDP的负1.5%。 9月季度和2025年下半年的产出缺口估算略低于8月声明的假设,与经济活动较低以及产能压力指标套件持续疲弱一致。 RBNZ编制的多项产能压力指标显示,2024年和2025年迄今劳动力市场产能压力大幅缓解。大多数劳动力市场紧张度指标低于2000年以来的平均水平,部分指标接近2000年以来最疲弱水平。 RBNZ假设,随着2025年末GDP增长开始超过潜在增长率,产出缺口将在中期内逐步收窄,GDP增长预期将增强,因为较低利率继续传导至更强劲的需求,高全球经济不确定性的抑制效应减弱。
劳动力市场

图6:失业率(来源:Stats NZ, RBNZ estimates.)
Stats NZ公布的家庭劳动力调查数据显示,失业率在2025年9月季度为5.3%。RBNZ假设失业率在近期将大致保持不变,并预测随着经济增长恢复,失业率将在中期内下降。就业人数在9月季度环比保持不变,此前连续四个季度下降。在截至9月季度的一年中,就业人数下降0.6%,工作年龄人口增长0.9%。
职位空缺仍远低于COVID-19疫情前水平,但近几个月略有增加。总工时和支付工时在9月季度均有增长。RBNZ指出,疲弱的经济活动导致自2024年中期以来经济中出现显著闲置产能。职位分离率接近历史平均水平,但职位寻获率处于30年来最低水平。
劳动力成本指数显示的私营部门同岗位名义工资年增长率在2025年9月季度为2.1%,从2023年初4.5%的峰值下降。RBNZ假设工资增长将在中期内保持在这一水平附近。
家庭与企业
家庭消费在2025年上半年有所增长。截至6月季度的一年中,消费增长1.5%。RBNZ假设在预测期内家庭消费增长将增加,受较低利率支撑。住宅投资在2025年上半年保持大致稳定,此前经历了两年的大幅下降。RBNZ预期住宅投资将从2025年末开始增长。
委员会讨论显示,尽管抵押贷款利率下降且住房市场活动略有回升,但迄今为止房价总体上保持稳定。委员会评估认为,即将实施的抵押贷款价值比要求降低不太可能对房价产生实质性影响。委员会预期房价增长在预测期内将温和,大致与名义收入增长一致。
企业投资在2025年6月季度收缩。RBNZ预期企业投资在9月季度将保持疲弱,然后随着GDP增长增强在中期内增加。根据RBNZ最近的企业访谈,总体而言企业报告需求和活动仍然低迷,尽管农业部门报告需求强劲。企业报告总体成本压力有所缓解,但新西兰元走弱增加了进口材料的成本。
政府支出与人口
政府支出作为经济份额自2021年末以来有所下降,但在2025年上半年有所增加。RBNZ假设政府支出在中期内以历史上低迷的速度增长。新西兰的净移民自2024年末以来保持在历史低位。RBNZ的预测假设目前年度潜在GDP增长率约为1.5%,将在2028年增加至约2.5%。
出口与贸易条件
新西兰出口价格在2024年末至2025年中期大幅上涨。乳制品、肉类和园艺产品价格的上涨占了大部分涨幅。RBNZ指出,较高出口价格向经济的传导似乎与以往出口价格上涨时期有所不同。出口数量在6月季度下降。及时指标显示总体出口价格将在2025年下半年下降。RBNZ假设出口价格在中期内将以实际价格计算稳定在接近历史平均水平。
金融条件

图7:新西兰抵押贷款利率(来源:interest.to.nz, RBNZ.)
委员会讨论了新西兰国内金融条件的宽松。批发利率下降,新西兰元贸易加权指数自8月以来贬值。官方现金利率的下调降低了借贷成本和抵押贷款利率。 抵押贷款平均收益率已降至5.4%。委员会表示,由于近40%的固定利率抵押贷款将在12月和3月季度重新定价,基于当前市场定价,平均抵押贷款收益率预期将在2026年9月前进一步降至4.7%。 委员会讨论认为,尽管抵押贷款利率下降且住房市场活动略有回升,但迄今为止房价总体上保持稳定。 国内金融压力指标随着较低利率降低债务偿还压力而有所缓解。早期拖欠(提供受损贷款的早期指标)有所下降。住房不良贷款也有所下降,银行预期住房和商业地产减值将在2026年进一步减少。商业部门不良贷款仍然较高,尽管低于以往下行时期的水平。 新西兰元汇率低于8月声明时的水平。国际油价略有下降。
全球经济环境

图8:贸易伙伴增长预测的变化情况(来源:Bloomberg, RBNZ estimates.)
委员会表示,全球经济增长受益于强劲的人工智能相关投资,但预期将在2026年放缓,因为贸易壁垒将对活动产生影响。关税对全球经济的影响低于最初预期。全球股票市场保持强劲,由美国科技板块持续上涨带动。油价已降至约四年来最低水平。
委员会对新西兰主要贸易伙伴的全球增长预测在2025年为2.9%,这一预测自5月声明以来已上调;年度贸易伙伴增长预期将在2026年放缓至2.6%,与8月声明保持一致。中国经济在2025年第三季度同比增长4.8%,出口增长6.7%,但国内需求疲软。
委员会讨论了全球前景的风险。人工智能应用的回报仍存在不确定性,存在股市更显著调整和投资减少的风险。几个发达经济体的通胀仍然较高,全球政策不确定性也仍然很高。委员会指出中国增长面临下行风险,以及美国经济政策的不确定性和美国通胀走高的相关风险。
新西兰主要贸易伙伴的总体通胀在2025年上半年降至1.6%,预期2025年平均为1.8%。贸易伙伴年度通胀在9月季度升至1.8%,预期将进一步上升至2026年平均2.0%。
官方现金利率路径(OCR)与风险评估
RBNZ表示,在中期经济前景的条件下,预测OCR将低于8月声明时的水平。这主要反映了对2025年经济中存在更大程度闲置产能的评估,以及出口价格前景较低。在中期内,OCR预期将回归至长期中性估算区间的中部。
RBNZ在声明中指出,通胀前景的风险大致平衡。家庭和企业如果更加谨慎,可能放缓新西兰经济复苏的步伐。或者,如果国内需求对较低利率的反应比预期更强,复苏可能更快更强。 委员会讨论了经济中显著的闲置产能。除了短期因素外,经济的中期供给能力因生产率和工作年龄人口增长疲弱而有所降低。估算显示目前潜在产出的年增长率约为1.5%。 委员会讨论了不可持续的财政动态和全球央行政治化加剧可能为更高且更持久的通胀创造条件的风险。
委员会成员为:Christian Hawkesby(主席)、Carl Hansen、Hayley Gourley、Karen Silk、Paul Conway、Prasanna Gai。财政部观察员为James Beard,委员会秘书为Chris Bloor。
相关官方文件和详细数据请参考:
新西兰储备银行官方网站:https://www.rbnz.govt.nz
新西兰储备银行货币政策决定:https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-decisions
新西兰储备银行货币政策声明:https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement
新西兰储备银行官方现金利率(OCR):https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/official-cash-rate-decisions
新西兰统计局官方网站:https://www.stats.govt.nz
新西兰储备银行经济数据与预测:https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics
新西兰储备银行通胀数据:https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/inflation
新西兰储备银行金融稳定报告:https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/financial-stability/financial-stability-report
新西兰储备银行2025年11月货币政策声明(完整版PDF):
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/project/sites/rbnz/files/publications/monetary-policy-statements/2025/nov-261125/monetary-policy-statement-november-2025.pdf
新西兰储备银行官方现金利率决定新闻稿(2025年11月26日):
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/hub/news/2025/11/ocr-lowered-to-2-25-percent
新西兰储备银行2025年11月货币政策声明简报(PDF):
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/project/sites/rbnz/files/publications/monetary-policy-statements/2025/nov-261125/november-2025-monetary-policy-statement-briefing.pdf
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