市场资讯及洞察
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数据截至日期：2025年11月11日澳大利亚储备银行（Reserve Bank of Australia, RBA）货币政策委员会于2025年11月4日召开会议，决定维持现金利率目标在3.60%不变。这是该行在2025年前三季度连续三次降息共75个基点后，首次维持利率不变。
决策背景与官方表态
根据RBA于2025年11月4日发布的官方媒体声明（Media Release 2025-31），本次决定为货币政策委员会全体成员一致通过。RBA主席Michele Bullock在会后新闻发布会上表示："最近数据表明经济中可能存在一些通胀压力，且早期降息的全部效果尚未显现"。
Bullock明确指出，委员会在本次会议上"没有考虑降息"，仅讨论维持现金利率不变及未来策略。她强调："我们认为目前处于正确的位置，可以根据风险的出现作出响应。通胀数据显著高于预期澳大利亚统计局（Australian Bureau of Statistics, ABS）公布的数据显示，2025年9月季度修正平均通胀（trimmed mean inflation）季度增长1.0%，年度增长3.0%，较6月季度的2.7%明显上升。这一数据"远高于8月《货币政策声明》中的预期"。
Bullock在新闻发布会上说明："我们判断9月季度基础通胀增长中的部分是由临时性因素驱动的"。她提到旅行成本、市政税费和燃料等临时性因素，但同时指出："我们也从更强劲的价格上涨中获取信号，这可能表明经济中存在比之前认为的更多通胀压力。特别是新住宅成本和市场服务的涨幅都超过预期，这些组成部分的通胀往往更具持续性。"根据11月《货币政策声明》中的中心预测（基于2026年再降息一次的技术假设），基础通胀预计在未来几个季度升至3%以上，然后在2027年稳定在2.6%。Bullock特别强调："委员会非常明确地将2.5%作为目标。略低于3%对委员会而言是不够的。"劳动力市场出现分化信号ABS数据显示，失业率从2025年8月的4.3%上升至9月的4.5%。就业增长放缓的幅度"略高于预期"。
然而，Bullock指出多项前瞻性指标仍显示劳动力市场存在紧张："职位空缺仍然相当高，辞职率已经反弹，NAB调查等商业调查以及我们的联络渠道都显示企业仍然认为情况略微偏紧。"她表示，失业率预测是基于这些前瞻性指标，显示"劳动力市场比你仅仅看到数字从4.3跳到4.5所认为的更加稳定"。关于月度数据波动性，Bullock承认："我们确实从4.5%这一数字中获取了一些信息，但我们知道月度数字具有波动性。"市场对12月会议降息的预期概率
数据来源：澳大利亚证券交易所（ASX）RBA利率追踪器根据澳大利亚证券交易所（ASX）RBA利率追踪器公布的数据，截至澳大利亚东部夏令时2025年11月11日，ASX 30天银行间现金利率期货2025年12月合约交易价格为96.425。这意味着市场对12月会议降息至3.35%的预期概率仅为14%。从图表中可以看出，市场对降息的预期从10月下旬开始急剧下降。10月29日降息预期概率还有28%，到11月4日降息概率已降至11%，随后略微回升至14%左右。经济增长与金融条件评估Bullock指出，消费数据显示"6月季度私人需求的回升正在持续"。住房市场继续走强，"这是近期降息正在产生效果的迹象"。房价正在上涨，住宅建设成本在经历一段时间的疲软增长后也开始再次上升。信贷"对家庭和企业都容易获得"。关于货币政策立场，Bullock承认金融条件存在"混合信号"："信用利差和股票市场等因素表明情况略微宽松，而其他因素如人们将可支配收入投入抵押贷款的金额，以及信贷与可支配收入的比率则表明情况略微紧缩。"她表示："我们仍然判断我们略微处于紧缩一侧...我们越接近中性，就越难以判断。"RBA副主席Hauser的"产能约束"警示RBA副主席Andrew Hauser于2025年11月10日在UBS澳洲会议上发表题为"Off to the races"的演讲，提供了对当前经济状况的深入分析。Hauser指出，本轮经济复苏在开始时的产能利用率创下40年来最高纪录："我们的中心估计表明,在去年GDP增长开始回升时,需求略高于潜在产出——这是自至少20世纪80年代初以来经济复苏时最紧张的经济背景。"他描述了三种可能的情景：情景A："仍有追赶空间？" — 认为经济仍有更多产能空间,可能需要进一步放松政策。情景B："困在栏杆边？" — 认为经济可能被自身产能约束所困,进一步放松政策的空间很小。Hauser指出："金融条件可能不再具有限制性:信用利差和股票风险溢价处于或接近历史低点;银行正在竞相向企业和家庭放贷;现金利率低于一些最重视世界长期市场利率的中性估计值。"
情景C："起跑！" — 需要通过时间和投资来扩大生产能力。Hauser在演讲中描述了澳大利亚的经济特征："世界领先的大学和人力资本。亚太地区的优越地理位置。庞大的国内储蓄池——根据瑞银集团的数据,成人人均财富中位数排名世界第二,养老金体系规模全球第四(未来将排第二)。"全球经济影响评估较为有限Hauser在演讲中指出,过去一年全球经济的韧性超出预期:"美国关税迄今为止证明规模较小、范围较窄;有限的报复、广泛的贸易重新路由和定向政策刺激(包括在中国)已经抑制,或在某些情况下甚至抵消了关税对全球增长的拖累。大宗商品价格和金融市场普遍保持稳定。对澳大利亚消费者和商业信心的全球政策不确定性的担忧影响迄今未能实现。"11月《货币政策声明》评估,全球贸易发展预计对澳大利亚将产生"轻微通缩"影响。即将公布的会议纪要根据RBA时间表,2025年11月货币政策委员会会议纪要将于2025年11月18日(下周二)上午11:30(澳东夏令时)公布。下次货币政策委员会会议定于2025年12月8-9日举行。Bullock表示,委员会将在12月会议前获得更多信息:"我们将有国民账户、劳动力市场数据、首个月度CPI,所以会有更多信息。我要说的是我们已经有了三次降息。我知道抵押贷款持有人希望有更多降息,但确保我们控制住通胀也很重要,因为这最终也会影响人们的生活水平。"
月度CPI数据即将启动
ABS已宣布,从2025年11月底开始,将每月发布完整的消费者物价指数(CPI)数据,替代此前的月度CPI指标。Bullock提到:"我们将从下个月开始获得月度CPI。它会有波动性,会存在一些季节性问题,但它将是我们从现在开始每月都有的一些信息。"RBA关于未来决策的表态：数据依赖与双向风险当被问及是否仍有宽松倾向时,Bullock明确表示:"我不提供前瞻性指引。"她重申:"如果你按面值理解预测...委员会正在非常仔细地观察。我们认为我们非常接近中性。我们可能略微偏紧,也可能不是。所以可能会有轻微降息,也可能没有,委员会将逐次会议进行,并使用数据来指导前景...我们没有偏向。"Bullock强调委员会对两个方向的风险都保持警觉:"如果风险最终是下行风险,正如一些人在就业方面所暗示的,我们能够做出响应。同样,如果风险是上行的,我们也能够做出响应。"当被问及利率是否可能上调时,Bullock回答:"任何事情都可能发生"，但补充说:"我们在本次会议上没有考虑加息。"相关官方文件和详细数据请参考：
- 澳大利亚储备银行官方网站：https://www.rba.gov.au
- 澳大利亚储备银行货币政策决定：https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/int-rate-decisions/
- 澳大利亚统计局官方网站：https://www.abs.gov.au
- 澳大利亚储备银行行长讲话（2025年11月4日）：https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2025/mc-gov-2025-11-04.html
- 澳大利亚储备银行副行长讲话（2025年11月10日）：https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2025/sp-dg-2025-11-10.html
- 澳大利亚储备银行媒体公告（2025-31号）：https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2025/mr-25-31.html
- 澳大利亚证券交易所 RBA 利率追踪器：https://www.asx.com.au/markets/trade-our-derivatives-market/futures-market/rba-rate-tracker
- 澳大利亚储备银行日程与活动日历（2025年11月）：https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar.html#november2025
免责声明本文内容仅为一般性建议（General Advice），未考虑任何个人的具体投资目标、财务状况或特定需求，不构成任何形式的个人财务建议（Personal Advice）、投资建议、税务建议、法律建议或任何金融产品推荐等。本文陈述的所有信息均基于澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）、澳大利亚统计局（ABS）等公开渠道已发布的历史数据和官方声明，不包含任何对未来市场走向、经济表现、投资回报或政策变化的预测、预判或前瞻性陈述，过往表现和历史数据不代表未来结果。所有投资均涉及风险，包括可能损失全部本金，外汇、差价合约（CFD）、衍生品等杠杆类产品具有高风险特性，可能导致快速且重大的损失，据统计大部分散户投资者账户在交易CFD时出现亏损，市场价格可能因各种因素剧烈波动。本文引用的信息来源于公开渠道，虽已尽力确保准确性，但不对信息的完全准确性、完整性、及时性或适用性作出任何明示或暗示的保证，信息可能存在延迟、需要更正，或因市场和政策环境快速变化而不再适用于当前情况。在做出任何投资或财务决策前，您应当仔细考虑自身的财务状况、投资目标和风险承受能力，进行适当性评估以确保相关产品或策略符合您的需求，并咨询持有澳大利亚金融服务牌照（AFSL）的财务顾问、税务专业人士或法律顾问，同时了解并遵守您所在司法管辖区的相关法律法规。本文提及的任何第三方机构、产品或服务不构成推荐或认可，相关商标、名称归其合法所有者。在法律允许的最大范围内，作者及相关方对因使用、依赖或无法使用本文信息而导致的任何直接、间接、附带、特殊或后果性损失不承担任何责任。投资有风险，决策需谨慎。
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XAUUSD Analysis 8 – 12 May 2023 The gold price outlook is generally positive in the medium term. Although the close of last week's sell pressure bar indicates a significant loss of buying momentum, due to the sell-off during the week but the price is still moving above the 2000 support level after a rebound to test and then rebound. It is very likely that the price will continue to move or sideways above the 2000 support and there is a chance to rise further to test the 2070 resistance which is a key resistance on the timeframe level.
Weekly and is the price that gold used to do the most in history. Forecasting the price of gold In the short term, the price may move down to test the 2000 support again and if it can hold on without falling further, it may have a sideways correction before rising to test the resistance. 2070 again in the medium term on the daily timeframe level, but if the price moves sharply down with continuous selling momentum, it can break out the 2000 support level and continue down to the next important support at 2070. Should be closely monitored is 1960, which is a support level on the daily timeframe.
GBPUSD Analysis 15 – 19 May 2023 GBPUSD is bearish after rallying to test the 1.26660 resistance to successfully form a new high on the Daily timeframe, before strong selling momentum emerges on the Daily and Weekly timeframes. Currently, the price has dropped to support 1.24470, which is an important level to watch. Because the former price used to form a Double Top pattern on the daily timeframe level. forecasting that price This week, the price may have sideways at the 1.24470 area before plunging further.
There is a high probability that the price will test the support area of 1.22700 before a correction. But if the selling momentum continues to sell continuously and is very strong This will result in the price being able to break out at the 1.22700 support area and go further down to test the next support, 1.18080, which is an important support at the Daily timeframe level. EURUSD Analysis 15 – 19 May 2023 EURUSD has a bearish view after rallying to test the 1.11000 resistance zone, which was the last high on the daily timeframe level, but failed to make a new high and strong selling momentum is evident.
Looking at the close of the candlestick, selling pressure on the Weekly time frame last week indicates a strong sell-off in the market. forecasting that price This week the price will continue to decline. There is a high probability that the price will rebound to test the support area of 1.07450 before a correction. But if the selling momentum continues to sell continuously and is very strong This will result in the price being able to break out at the 1.07450 support area and go further down to test the next support, 1.05250, which is an important support at the daily timeframe level.
热门话题今天我们来说说这为啥澳洲再次加息了，房价还在上涨。其实这话题本身并不是和金融交易有太直接的关系，但是刚好上周末有个朋友问我一个问题，让我联想到这一定是一个大家都会问到的问题。朋友的原话是这样的：Mike, 想请教您个事情，您有什么股票长线看好的吗 ? 10年以上那种。相信很多朋友一定也会想问，如果要选择一个股票投10年，澳洲有什么股票可以选？我回答只是一句话，但是我得先介绍一下我思考的逻辑：就是澳洲过去10年，甚至于未来10年，经济发展的主要有利因素有哪些？我们去除所有盘根错节的分析，答案并不难回答，无非就是：靠地下的矿产，和靠强大的移民政策两点。前者更大程度还需要依靠其他因素——买家的经济情况。而后者则完全由澳洲自己来决定人数的多少。所以最后得出的答案也是很简单，如果要选择10年以上的投资，如果选一个股票，我会选联邦银行CBA，如果选两个股票，我会选CBA和BHP。当然，如果你有更多的资金，更丰富的投资经验，那什么锂电池啊，铀矿啊，天然气啊等等都可以考虑。但是如果答案只有一个，而且面对的是广大普通人群，那联邦银行CBA绝对是正确答案，再保守点，加个之一吧。而选择CBA的依据，其实就是看重其占有了房贷业务55%以上的份额。澳洲的确地广人稀，但是只要你在澳洲居住过，就会知道，长期来看，澳洲的房价上涨是一定的。因为90%的移民都会选择在最大的5个城市生活，而70%的移民，则会集中在悉尼和墨尔本。
根据上周最新的联邦预算，澳大利亚预计将在五年内接收149.5万新移民。其中包括 2022-23年创纪录的40万和2023-24年的31.5万。到明年年底，预计将有超过70万人移居澳大利亚。内政部长克莱尔奥尼尔上个月宣布：澳大利亚人口仍有望在五年内从2650万增加到2817万。话都说到这里了，虽然我本人从事的不是房地产，而是金融行业，但是我知道，移民政策一个最大的优势，就是可以凭空制造GDP。为啥这么说呢？因为正常出生人口每个国家都是比较缓慢的，而且就算刚出生，除了增加一点奶粉尿布的开支以外，短时间这小婴儿自己是不可能增加消费和去工作的。但是新增加的移民则不同，除了那些少数的难民和老人家属移民以外，绝大部分的新移民都是青年或壮年群体，都属于工作年龄，不但可以工作，赚了工资还能促进消费，更不用说买房买车这种刚需消费了。澳洲政府将2023-2024年永久移民计划中，把约70%的名额分配给技术移民，大家注意，这次大部分给了技术移民，而不是商业移民或家属移民，说明的是什么？说明澳洲政府知道，现在澳洲就业市场里缺人啊。所以要的不是商业移民你只带钱不工作。而是要那些年轻人，符合移民专业的，或者在海外有专业技术背景的，能到了澳洲就可以找工作上班的那种。只要你要上班，就有机会可以贷款买房，一旦贷款买房了，那澳洲就可以大概率绑定你30年了，这笔买卖是稳赚不赔啊。你说，这世界上除了澳洲加拿大，还有哪个发达国家有这么多配额，又没有设置太高的门槛？回到问题上。澳洲加息，影响大不大？大，但是影响的都是已经在澳洲工作的，或者贷款买房的人群。但是对于新移民，尤其是带着钱来，暂时不可能找工作的那些，几乎没有。如果我们打比喻，加息10次，会对房地产市场的需求量产生-10分的影响的话，那过去6个月登录澳洲的那10多万人所带来的强大刚需消费，就会对房地产的需求端产生+30分的影响。
我在过去半年反复多次和大家强调一点：澳洲除了地下有矿这个巨大的优势以外，还有一个祖传秘方可以躲避经济衰退的办法就是自由调节每年的移民数量。虽然短期内大量增加移民无疑会导致很多不良影响，比如治安，比如堵车，比如看医就学和买房租房等等，但是当大环境充满了不确定的时候，那大量新增的劳动力和消费力无疑能够带来更多的是好处和优势。不论你是在澳洲上班，还是自己做小店铺餐饮，或者自己做建筑，贸易，或者进出口生意。你都会面临两个选择：移民多，经济不衰退或少衰退，店铺人流量增加，吃喝玩乐的人增加，但是房价上涨，物价居高不下。另一种选择：移民少，或不来。经济完全看美国，一旦美国不行了，澳洲也会大概率衰退，然后没人去店里吃饭，没人买衣服买电器，利息是下来了，但是房价下跌，租金下跌。说不定你的店要亏钱，说不定公司要裁员。你会选哪一种？不要说你没有房贷，已经财富自由这种风凉话。咱们大部分都是普通人，已经在澳洲居住生活，一定是希望澳洲经济好，澳洲经济好，咱们就跟着好。但是澳洲经济好，房价也必然跟着涨。想想当初2020年，疫情刚开始，澳洲主流媒体和银行纷纷预测房价要跌30%-40%。结果呢？半年就开始反弹。这次2022年加息之后，去年年底的时候，各大主流媒体也纷纷预测，房价2023年还要跌10-15%，结果4月悉尼墨尔本就开始反弹。为啥？最大的一个因素被忽略，就是澳洲为了拯救经济而会突然大量增加移民配额这个巨大的利好因素。2023年，充满着不确定，但是唯一可以确定的是，澳洲的移民不会减少，还会增加。那未来2年，除了银行业以外，70万新增移民可以给哪些行业带来利好呢？欢迎拨打03 8658 0603，联系我们，来我们办公室，请我们喝一杯拿铁，说不定，就有你想不到的收获。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Mike Huang | GO Markets 销售总监
热门话题周末有份桥水基金的持仓报告出炉，值得大家关注。桥水基金从去年年底以来出现较大涨势，表现非常突出。根据桥水向美国证交会提交的文件显示，其今年一季度末的美股持仓市值达到163亿美元，较去年底的183亿美元减少了约10%。作为全球宏观策略基金，桥水的美股组合仅占总资产很小的一部分。在这个季度，桥水清仓了二百多只股票，减持了三百多只股票，同时新进了一百多只股票，增持了二百多只股票。MSCI新兴市场ETF在今年一季度末晋升为桥水的第一大重仓，加仓了三百多万股，持仓超1786万股，占投资组合比例的5%以上。一季度减持多只消费股，比如宝洁，百事可乐、可口可乐；另外，桥水还减持了麦当劳和沃尔玛，其中沃尔玛的减持幅度相对较大。但是，桥水在一季度小幅加仓了医疗领域的强生，位列第四大重仓股。其目前美股重仓股中，增持的标的还包括Alphabet，Meta，以及VISA和Booking等。在桥水一季度减持的众多标的中，先锋领航富时新兴市场ETF减持幅度达38%，另外减持幅度较大的还有拼多多，减持幅度41%，以及亿滋国际减持22%，塔吉特减持28%。较为意外的是桥水在一季度还减持了其特别看好的黄金资产，卖出其黄金ETF超34万股，期末持仓降至88万股左右，持有市值仅为1.62亿美元。
近期，桥水基金投资官表示，黄金可能正处于持续增长期的开端，因为全球对美元去杠杆化的推动仍是金价的长期支撑。她表示，黄金被低估了，还有很长的路可以走。黄金在全球货币市场中日益重要，这使得它不仅仅是对抗债券市场和利率的工具。另外，地缘政治动荡不会消失，这是对黄金的长期支撑。不仅如此，由于全球通胀水平仍相对较高，黄金将继续吸引投资者，以对冲购买力下降的风险。4月末，桥水联合首席投资官鲍勃·普林斯分享了他在2023年一季度的最新观察。他指出，名义支出水平高于经济体的生产能力，导致通胀率远高于目标水平，美国和其他西方经济体处于看跌失衡中。为了纠正这种失衡，缓解需求压力，欧美各国央行一直在实施紧缩政策，恢复均衡将会给经济和市场带来一定的负面影响。相比之下，亚洲经济体的经济更加接近于均衡，支出与劳动力产出水平一致，通胀可控，政策制定者有足够的空间提振经济和市场。在大部分西方国家，货币政策紧缩扭转了流动性方向，促使人们抛售资产持有现金。而中国，日本和许多亚洲国家处于周期的不同位置，这些国家和地区的政策制定者支持货币和信用流动，这降低了折现率和风险溢价，促进了经济增长。桥水基金的美股头寸并不算大，但其持仓变动折射出一种资金撤离为主线的信号，也是对目前市场不确定性的一种解读。随着金价震荡上行，美债上限问题依然没有解决，西方国家的股市依然整体处于熊市，货币紧缩政策无法在短期内改变，反而是亚洲股市有着较大的机会，目前货币政策保持宽松，疫情后的经济复苏强势，因此桥水的主要方向也是向着亚洲市场在靠拢。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 专业分析师
The word Populism is probably the buzzword at the World Economic Forum this year. The headlines this week were heavily dominated by the concerns of the rise of populism around the globe. “Brazil’s Bolsonaro is the Face of Populism at the Davos Forum” “Merkel encourages multilateralism in the face of populism…” “Chrystia Freelans decries the rise of populism…” “Is Davos listening? Populist wind blows over…” “Business leaders concerned about the rise of US nationalism, populism…” This year, three Western Leaders are not present, and the reason behind it is tilted towards the issue of populism.
This is actually a “ Strong Message ” for the financial markets. The United States is not in attendance due to the shutdown related to the funding of the Wall. President Trump is taking a hard line on immigration and trade.
The United Kingdom is trapped with Brexit. Theresa May abstained from the forum as Brexit uncertainties linger. The UK leaving the European Union is the notable example of the rise of populism based on the desire to regain control over immigration and national sovereignty.
France is being rattled by the “yellow vests” protests which initially begun because of the fuel tax hikes and mean well. However, as it lingers through more than two months, there are concerns that it has given rise to populist strategies in French Is Populism a headwind for Economic Growth and the Markets? The IMF recently flagged how policies need to be adjusted to face the slowing global growth amid rising risks and has called for multilateral cooperation to tackle protectionism and trade tensions.
The message echoed the fears of the rise in populism in the markets. The concept of populist parties and economic growth can be complexed as the effects need to be assessed on the short-term and long-term basis. Populist political parties sometimes come with a fiscal spending policy that stimulates the economy in the short-term, similar to the outperformance of the US economy.
The Trump administration has boosted growth, business and consumer confidence and reduced unemployment through various policies such as tax cuts. However, populist parties often come with protectionism measures and anti-immigration policy which is a hindrance for long-term economic growth. Domestic economies are not able to reap the benefits that normally come with globalization which means that trade restrictions and labour immobility can create a stagflationary environment.
The US is the example of how the US economy bolstered during the first two years of Trump’s presidency mostly driven by fiscal spending, but the growth is expecting to slow down due to the gridlock in Washington. Similarly, the spread in populist parties has prompted market angst in the European markets. European shares have been underperforming compared to the global markets.
The % change for a year shows that the fall in major European equities – Euro Stoxx 50, FTSE100, the Dax and the CAC 40 is deeper compared to the US or Australian equity benchmark. Source: Bloomberg The shared currency is also under pressure. A look at the graph below shows that since the beginning of the year, major currencies are in the green against the US dollar compared to the Euro.
A combination of weak data, domestic political challenges and a rise in populism are weighing heavily on the Eurozone outlook. Populism and Emerging Countries The list of headwinds that the Emerging markets have to deal with over the past year is long: US Rising rates and the Fed Trade tensions The rout in oil markets Populist parties Without any doubt, we saw EM crashing last year on the three main points listed above. Populism is another significant point to monitor.
Emerging economies are the ones who benefitted the most from globalization. Trade barriers can have a big impact, and EMs rely heavily on exports to developed countries. Populism is among the most significant risks to the financial markets which are increasing the risk of triggering a crisis.
Australian’s weak inflation report this week has set the tone for the RBA’s Rate Statement next Tuesday. The underlying inflation reading remains well below the RBA’s target 2-3% for the 11th consecutive quarter. There is no doubt that the Australian inflationary outlook remains feeble.
Some cyclical and structural headwinds are preventing wages and other inflationary pressures to climb higher. Even though the economy is on its 27 th year without a recession, the Australian economy is trapped with very high household debt. A subdued wage growth and high household debt are putting a squeeze on consumer spending.
It is hard to see consumer spending continue to stay strong in the upcoming quarters. There are some bright spots such as net exports, public spending and capital expenditure that are relatively solid to stimulate the economy but there are no signs of significant inflationary pressures from leading indicators across categories in the near-term for the RBA to increase interest rate. “Patience is the key here.” Unemployment rate is coming down gradually and will eventually push wages higher at some point. Therefore, even though the CPI figures were disappointing, it is too early to speculate about a rate cut or any changes for that matter.
The RBA was expecting both headline and underlying inflation to undershoot under their target range. We therefore expect the RBA to maintain its usual stance on inflationary outlook and keep interest rate on hold.
December started on a positive note, though it was short-lived. During the G20 meeting, there was more optimism in the financial markets than the market participants had anticipated. Investors were therefore hopeful that December would be promising.
Post G20 Reactions – Bullish Gaps Monday started on a buoyant note with a few bullish gaps, and risk sentiment was revived. The dynamic in the financial markets had changed, and investors entered the last month of the year with more confidence. The equity markets were flashing green again, and major equity benchmarks managed to climb sharply to the upside. (Daily Charts: WS30, NDX100, DAX30, US5OO, FTSE100, and CAC40) In the FX markets, all G10 currencies appreciated against the greenback.
The Japanese Yen and the Antipodeans emerged as the best performers. The British Pound struggled to keep the pace with the other G10 currencies, due to the Brexit uncertainties. Inverted Yield Curve and Trade Ambiguity An inverted yield curve and lack of details around the trade truce deal have halted the upbeat tone in the financial markets.
The yield spread between the 3-yr and 5-yr Treasuries dropped to -0.1 on Monday, triggering a massive sell-off due to rising fears of a recession. At the same time, investors were worried that a muted China regarding the ceasefire was bad news. Investors dramatically dropped riskier assets.
Wall Street bled the most: The Dow Jones Average Industrial dropped 799 points (3.10%), the S&P500 fell by 90 points (3.24%), and Nasdaq Composite erased 3.8%. (Hourly Charts: WS30, NDX100 and DAX30) The greenback retrieved its safe-haven status and bolstered against rival peers. The US dollar Index spiked above the 97 level before losing some bullish momentum. (Hourly Chart: US dollar Index) Brexit Aside from trade headlines and the fears around the inverted yield curve, Brexit news dominated the markets. A meaningful Parliament vote is scheduled on the 11 th of December, and there was much new information for market participants to digest.
Legal advice which states that Brexit deal can be reversed using Article 50 A motion to disclose the legal advice supported by the House of Commons Three Brexit defeats in the Commons Scottish political parties are joining forces to show their opposition. The GBPUSD pair swung up and down, depending on the headlines. Any gains appeared to have been capped by the downtrend line.
The pair has also broken key support levels and dropped to August lows. It briefly attempted a break outside the descending line. (H4: GBPUSD) Fundamentals are weak, and investors reactions seemed to be more pronounced. Sparks in the markets are either bringing relief or igniting the fears.
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