市场资讯及洞察

Airbnb Inc. (NASDAQ:ABNB) announced Q4 2022 and 2022 full year financial results after the market close in the US on Tuesday. World’s second largest travel company reported revenue of $1.902 billion (up by 24% year-over-year), beating analyst estimate of $1.861 billion. The revenue reported was the highest for a Q4 in Airbnb’s history.

Earnings per share also topped analyst estimate at $0.48 per share vs. $0.256 earnings per share expected. Revenue in 2022 reported at $8.4 billion, up by 40% vs. 2021. CEO commentary ''2022 was another incredible year for Airbnb.

We made almost 100 upgrades to our core service, saw record guest demand, and ended the year with our highest-ever number of active listings globally,'' co-founder and CEO, Brian Chesky said in a press release. Stock reaction Shares of Airbnb closed at $120.49 a share on Tuesday, up by 3.28%. The stock rose by around 9% in the after-hours as Q4 results came in above estimates.

Stock performance 1 month: +19.35% 3 months: +12.95% Year-to-date: +41.37% 1 year: -32.88% Airbnb stock price targets B of A Securities: $130 Barclays: $105 UBS: $114 Wells Fargo: $130 Goldman Sachs: $87 Mizuho: $110 Morgan Stanley: $80 Baird: $100 Airbnb is the 188 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $76.53 billion. You can trade Airbnb Inc. (NASDAQ:ABNB) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Airbnb Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

热门话题毫无疑问，在过去一周整个科技行业和金融行业里最火的话题，已经不再是特斯拉，也不是马斯克，而是一款叫做Chat GPT的软件。这个软件的全称是Chat Generative Pre-trained Transformer，翻译成中文大概就是：生成型经过预先训练的变换模型式软件。虽然翻译非常拗口，但是基本上就是一款非常先进的聊天机器人。这个聊天机器人是由美国OPEN AI公司研制，微软集团主要投资的创新型软件。和之前绝大部分的传统聊天机器人所不同的是，这款软件并不是简单的通过搜索大量资料从而形成问题答案，它做的更多的是依靠无数逻辑中的某些逻辑，对自己搜索到的答案结果进行编排和校对，并且根据客户的情况给出针对性，并不一定客观正确，但是却又适合这个客户的回答。我来举一个非常能说明问题的案例：某美国英文用户问GPT软件: 你好，请问7+2等于几GPT说：按照数学逻辑来说是等于9.（这里软件还无法确认客户背景情况，因此按照标准化答案来回答）用户说：但是我太太说7+2 明明就等于8.（这里软件已经知道客户有家庭，并且在家庭中为丈夫角色）GPT回答：您的太太是对的，7+2就等于8.（GPT非常聪明的模拟了真实社会中有利于丈夫的答案）然后这个客户再次重启软件，转换语气问：请问8+1等于几GPT回答：按照数学逻辑等于9.用户回答：但是我丈夫说8+1等于10GPT这时回答：您的丈夫说错了，8+1就是等于9.（GPT根据提问者是妻子的角色而给出了完全不同的答案）在以上两个不同的场景中，GPT软件并不是简单的收集信息，给出答案，而是非常聪明的根据客户的提问，预判客户的背景和模拟真实环境，给出适合这个客户的回答。类似上述回答网上还有很多案例，这让我对研发团队无比佩服。想必一定是在涉及当初，加入了一条：如果丈夫和妻子发生矛盾时，一定是女人说的对。这样类似的逻辑。这其实就是真实模拟了人们在日常生活中的聊天场景，这也是GPT软件能在短时间内让无数人喜欢的原因，因为当你和它对话时，感觉它不是一个软件或机器，而是一个聪明而又高情商的人。虽然说还不能完全和人的回答类似，但是这一小步的变化，却是聊天软件发展的一大步。在短短3个月内囊获7亿注册用之后，Chat GPT软件的母公司Open AI的市值也直接逼近到了千亿美金级别。毕竟，在7亿用户的庞大基础内，即便只有10%的人最后成为了付费用户，也直接可以获得几十亿美元的收益。更别说未来的商业用途了。也正是因为这样，微软在被谷歌打压了十几年之后，这次终于研发出一款目前看来超越谷歌和其他竞争对手的产品了。并且微软也非常及时的发布了和Chat GPT绑定功能的浏览器和搜索引擎，以此进一步企图从谷歌手里抢回丢失的市场份额。从微软去年12月到现在的股价反弹我们不难看出，220到最高280，这30%的上涨，就是靠着CHAT GPT的热潮。

而其直接对手谷歌，则因为在公开展示的人工智能软件Bard所回答的答案出现了纰漏而使得股价出现了10%以上的大跌。

相比于前2年那些虚无缥缈的元宇宙和VR技术，这次Chat GPT所带来的在我看来却是实实在在可以落实在商业领域，是可以直接变现的技术。网上最近也纷纷出现各种博眼球的文章说什么未来将会有几百万人因为GPT软件的面世而失业等等。但是其实稍微有些真实工作经验的朋友们就应该知道。也许Chat GPT可以替代很多传统岗位例如在线客服，在线教育，或者网上银行等不用见面就可以搞定的业务。但是真正遇到需要人和人面对面来解决的问题，需要建立的关系来维护的商业往来这些领域，几乎任何的人工智能都很难替代人。也有很多朋友问我，这个Chat GPT对哪些公司或者行业板块有利呢？如果说最直接的受益者，那自然就是创立这款软件的母公司Open AI最大的投资人，微软集团了。但是虽然微软在科技和IT领域，但是并非意味着所有的科技公司都将会因此收益，谷歌股价的下跌就说明了一个例子。但是总体而言，微软的股价如果未来可以因为GPT一直上涨，那对于整个纳斯达克指数的帮助是巨大的，而如果未来微软可以和苹果手机绑定使用GPT功能，或者特斯拉的电动车界面使用GPT类似的功能和技术，在我看来，这就将会是美国科技企业的另一次大幅领先的时代开始。这款软件未来的商业用途非常广泛，从手机到汽车界面，从家庭智能系统到公司的在线客服，几乎只要有电脑的地方，就可以用得到这个软件。那问题来了，其他竞争者未来会不会超越GPT？如果明显超越，那市场中前三名的人工智能软件将会是谁？如果你也看好Chat GPT, 可以直接在GO Markets MT5平台交易微软的股票，或者，如果你觉得有其他科技公司的产品未来有潜力可以超越Chat GPT的，也可以通过我们的平台在线购买。在未来1-2周，我们会为发布更加详细的Chat GPT研究报告，供我们内部客户阅读。欢迎关注我们的公众号。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Mike Huang | GO Markets 销售总监

热门话题最近马斯克开始为3月1号即将公布的Master Plan3造势，令市场颇为关注，也足以令特斯拉极其本人保持热度不减，更是特斯拉股价的兴奋剂。那么什么是Master Plan呢？很多人对这个3.0版本的来袭没什么准备，今天就让我们来了解下马斯克为特斯拉打造的整个Master Plan。Master Plan概念的最早阶段也就是第一阶段是在2006年发布的，其内容包括：先制造一款产量少，价格高的电动车，将赚到的钱用于开发相对亲民的价格较低的电动车，这也是特斯拉先发展电动跑车Roadster而后逐步转往开发入门级电动车Model3的战略主线。第一阶段还涉及了想方设法利用可再生能源比如太阳能电力为电动车充电。

第一阶段花了十年时间真的基本布局完成，特斯拉也逐渐为大众所接受，于是马斯克在2016年公布了Master Plan的2.0版本，也就是计划的第二阶段，提出要创造高效且美观的太阳能板，扩大电动车产品线以满足细分市场需求，包括但不限于大型卡车，轻型卡车和公共运输系统，还强调了人工智能与自动驾驶的价值，并宣称在实现特斯拉全自动驾驶后达成Tesla Network。就当前的实际情况看，第二阶段已经略有雏形但并未完成，电动卡车还未量产，全自动驾驶正在路上，人工智能时不时火爆一下，但缺乏持续性。但不可否认的是，马斯克为特斯拉制定的Master Plan的第一部分和第二部分思路清晰，目标明确，过去近二十年特斯拉一直在为实现计划而努力，这也是是该公司的重要纲领战略，在许多方面为特斯拉的成功铺平了道路，也引领了整个产业的变革。那么对于其Master plan 的3.0版本 ，自然成为了全世界的焦点。其实在 2022 年 3 月，也就是Master plan 2 发布六年后，马斯克就在推特上宣布他正在制定特斯拉总体规划第 3 部分，如今一年过去，3月1号终于要到揭开其神秘面纱的时候了。今天我们就一起来预测下，Master Plan的第三阶段可能会包含哪些概念。根据马斯克去年的推文，他曾预告第三阶段将涉及扩大Tesla至巨大规模，带领人类走出化石能源，大力发展人工智能，计划会包含马斯克的另外两家公司，包括Space X和The Boring Company。

马斯克之前表示，在下一个十年也就是2030年左右，会建立12个年产量在150－200万台特斯拉的工厂，并表示年产2000万台电动车是可实现的。所以Master Plan 3肯定包含巨大规模化，例如如何规模化获取电池材料，按照一台车100Kwh的平均电池来算，特斯拉2000万台就是需要2Twh，这是一个天文数字，要知道中国电池生产霸主宁德时代2021年的电池年产量仅170.39Gwh，而整个中国的产量也只有219.7Gwh，2Twh这个量级的电池如何实现，让我们拭目以待。另外，马斯克在回答员工问题的全公司会议上提到过，为了转移地球的整个能源基础设施和交通基础设施，必须有一个非常高的电池规模，他必须要从大约 300Twh 的车辆和储能装机容量向后推算，那么如果从采矿供能的角度来看，又需要多少能量去开采矿？相关的矿股又能受到多久的暴涨周期？举个例子，最近马斯克和印度尼西亚眉来眼去，据说接近达成50亿美元的镍材料交易订单，当然这些消息在官方公布前都是不能作为参考的，仅仅是折射出了一个可能的信号。还有一点就是机器人领域，这其实在Master plan 2中已经触及了，Optimus机器人可以解决劳动力短缺问题，并大大降低成本，那么自然也能为特斯拉生产制造的规模化贡献力量。特斯拉计划让机器人随着时间的推移逐步改进，最终能够执行更广泛的任务，使其在商业和消费应用领域都有用武之地。因此机器人领域也很可能是马斯克会在Master Plan中涉及的话题。

第三个方面是人工智能。随着最近ChatGPT爆火，马斯克始终也处于AI风口中心，其脑机对接的理念在很早就已经提出，他本人也在采访中表达过亲测后的感受。因此Master Plan的第三阶段引入人工智能并不新奇，而这也是本文上面提及的机器人计划中可以提高效能的必要选项。结合人工智能的机器人，才是真正意义的机器人，而非单纯人为控制的劳动力。最后一个方面就是近期马斯克推特宣称的，Master Plan第三阶段将为地球发展完全可持续能源提供思路。这可是全人类的福音，因为任何文明的分级定义其实就是按照对能源的利用能力而划分的，当人类能够发展出完全可持续能源的技术时，人类文明或将上升到一个全新的高度。总的来说，马斯克的Master plan 是特斯拉汽车的专属战略，虽然他没有像其他传统主机厂一样喊新能源智能电动车战略，但仔细看他的计划有远景和目标，有节奏和策略，有时间和节点。远景目标可以归纳为：改变能源结构实现可持续的能源驱动，规模化把复杂的问题简单化，利用人工智能解决执行简单且重复的任务。例如太阳能产能，电池储能使用；一体冲压；人工智能驾驶标记简单重复场景进行执行应对。节奏和策略可以理解为：新技术导入期高价炫酷吸引高端价格不敏感客户，之后每一步都有符合节奏的创新保持品牌，接下来通过规模化做低价格实现价格壁垒，确保品牌优势。有时间和节点是最明显的，Master Plan可以清晰地看到马斯克每个阶段都有重心，环环相扣，在正确的时间打出正确的牌。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 专业分析师

Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE:UBER) announced Q4 2022 financial results before the market open on Wall Street on Wednesday. The US company posted better-than-expected results for the quarter, beating both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts. Uber reported revenue of $8.607 billion (up by 47% year-over-year or 59% in constant currency) vs. $8.513 billion estimate.

EPS reported at $0.29 per share for the quarter. Analysts were expecting a loss per share of -$0.154. It’s the first time since Q4 2021 that the company has reported higher-than-expected EPS.

CEO and CFO commentary ''We ended 2022 with our strongest quarter ever, with robust demand and record margins,'' Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO of Uber. ''Our global scale and unique platform advantages position us well to accelerate this momentum into 2023.'' "In 2022, we significantly exceeded our profitability outlook, with an incremental margin of 10%,'' Nelson Chai, CFO of the company added. ''Our outlook for a Gross Bookings and Adjusted EBITDA step up in Q1 builds on that progress, and sets us up for yet another record year." Stock reaction Share price of Uber rose by around 2% on Wednesday and was trading at around $35.91 a share – the highest level since April 2022. Stock performance 1 month: +26.77% 3 months: +35.37% Year-to-date: +45.33% 1 year: -10.57% Uber stock price targets Wedbush: $38 Needham: $54 Wolfe Research: $42 Wells Fargo: $46 Piper Sandler: $33 Truist Securities: $60 Cowen & Co.: $70 Morgan Stanley: $54 Mizuho: $46 UBS: $36 Barclays: $54 Uber is the 204 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $71.61 billion. You can trade Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE:UBER) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.

Sources: Uber Technologies Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

‘Trading the news’, is a phrase that is often said, but to new traders it can be a confusing statement without much context. What does it mean to trade the news? Is it simply trading a News Company, or is it trading based on a news report, this article will explain some of the intricacies of the famous strategy of ‘trading news’.

What is it? Trading the news is simply using an event, whether it be a global news event relating to a stock or sector news or an announcement from a company as a reason to enter a trade of a on a security or a derivative. A trader can only make money on a trade if the price of the chosen asset is moving.

If the price is stagnant then there is no use trying to trade it as there will be no money to be made. This is also known as volatility. In addition, traders and investors like to trade when there is a high level of liquidity as this allows for larger position sizes and easier movement in and out of a trade.

Why do some traders ‘trade the news’? There is multiple reason that trader will trade the new, but it is largely as news events act as catalyst for a shift in share price and increase in volatility. A general rule of the efficient market is that all information that is available is priced into the share price.

However, when news/announcements are first announced, the market must evaluate the worth of the news to the share price and this can happen quickly, or it can take a few days to assess. This is where money can be made when ‘trading the news’. Example In this example we have a company ABC.

ABC is a publicly listed company listed on the ASX and it share price is currently $1.00. with a market capitalisation of $1,000,000 ABC is company that creates and sells bicycles. Now imagine that this company signs a contract to sell 1000 bikes to Company DEF for $100,000 Immediately the news will be announced and the market including traders’ investors and others will have to assess how to value the contract. This will see a rush of volatility and buying/selling of the company’s shares.

Similarly, traders can trade the news relating Foreign exchange. Specifically, news from relating to the economy or an announcement from a countries Central Bank can provide a shift to the currency which triggers traders on corresponding currency pairs. In the example below, the Reserve Bank of Australia had just announced an increase in the interest rate for the cash rate largely in line with analyst expectation.

Some notable observation about the chart includes an initial influx of volume and increase in range for the candles relative to average levels. What is ‘Selling the news?’ It has been established that trading the news is when traders will try and use news catalysts as a signal for volatility when trading, however sometimes a seemingly good news event creates a sell off that can often lead to confusion on the part of the trader who taken a buy position. The reason for much of this selling goes back to the first question.

Why do traders trade the news? The market is trying to put a value on the announcement. Furthermore, this can be compounded by what are known as ‘trapped sellers.

The concept of trapped seller is that when a stock creates a gap above a previous closing price based and that gap is above previous long terms resistance zones, sellers who have been stuck in the stock long term will sell their holding at the first opportunity. This of course creates downward pressure on the price. The downward pressure incentivises short sellers and more selling occur thus causing a ‘sell the news’ type of event.

Take the following example of ASX listed company BUB. The news events were that the company had signed a contract to supply the USA with baby formular at a time when the country was dealing with a massive shortage of the formula. As we discussed above, in this chart we can see that as the market opened.

The price gapped form the previous close of $0.485 to $0.780 as the market opened. As the day wore on it became apparent that there was a great deal of long-term sellers who were using the opportunity to either take profits or cover to cover a loss. Subsequently the stock price kept falling for consecutive days as sellers continued to ‘sell the news’ Risks ‘Trading the news’ can be an inherently risky strategy, as an influx of volume comes into a stock the volatility often increases in volatility.

This means that the momentum of. If a trader is on the wrong side of the move it can be a dangerous as the price can move very quickly. Therefore, traders should be weary and have clear stops and exits points for when a trade goes the wrong way.

US indices were down today as Jerome Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve is going to increase interest rates at a higher and faster rate than currently in place. US equities dropped after Powell’s speech. Ultimately the major indices ended relatively flat by the close of trading.

The Nasdaq closed down 0.40% after taking a breather from its recent buying momentum. The Dow Jones was dragged down by Boeing after a 737-plane crash in the mountainous Guangxi region in China. The Boeing share price saw a 5.74% drop on the opening before recovering a little to close the day down by 3.60%.

The S&P500 was also choppy as it reacted the Jerome Powell’s speech but finished flat. The FTSE 100 showed gains as an uplift in commodities supported the index with oil spiking. This provided strength for the UK’s biggest oil companies BP and Shell with both rising by 3%.

The FTSE ended the day up 0.51% whilst the DAX was down 0.60%. Commodities Brent Crude Oil made a powerful move overnight rising 7.91% to 116.33 USD. This came as European Union officials debated whether to place sanctions on Russia's lucrative energy sector to pressure the country over its invasion of Ukraine.

An embargo on Russian oil similar to what the USA and the UK have done may have drastic implications for the EU in which 40% of its gas is imported from Russia. Natural gas prices also continue to remain in the upper end of their recent price range. Gold remains near its recent support levels ending the day at 1929 USD per ounce.

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin had a choppy day as BTC/USD ended flat overall. Ethereum was the better performer closing the day with a 1.87% rise. The ETH/USD continues to hold just below the $3000 resistance level.

FOREX The EUR/USD continued to be rejected at the $1.08 level after the speech from the Federal Reserve spurred USD strength. The AUD/USD has not been able to break through its recent highs of $0.74 as it proved a flat day for the pair after the previous day’s strong moves. The USD has continued its strong move against the JPY as it climbed another 0.27%.

The JPY has continued to struggle against most other currencies. The GBP/JPY has closed in on its recent area of support 157.00-158.00 JPY as seen below as it looks to potentially break out.