预计收益日期： 2026 年 2 月 4 日，星期三（美国，收盘后）/~ 2026 年 2 月 5 日星期四上午 8:00（澳大利亚东部夏令时间）

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Alphabet的收益提供了对全球数字广告需求、企业云支出和更广泛的科技行业投资趋势的见解。

由于谷歌搜索和YouTube被消费者和企业广泛使用，因此在评估在线活动和企业营销预算以及其他指标时，通常将结果用作一种输入。

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重点领域

搜寻

搜索广告仍然是Alphabet最大的收入驱动力。市场可能会关注广告增长率、定价指标（例如每次点击费用）以及零售、旅游和中小型企业等领域的总体广告商需求。

优酷

YouTube为广告和订阅收入做出了贡献。市场通常监控广告势头、参与度趋势和盈利发展，以此作为数字媒体状况和品牌支出的指标。

谷歌云

尽管结果仍不确定，但持续的云盈利能力通常被视为可能影响长期收益预期的因素。预计市场将关注收入增长、企业采用趋势和营业利润率。

其他赌注

自动驾驶和生命科学等举措虽然通常对收入的贡献较小，但市场仍可能将支出水平和进展更新视为资本配置和成本纪律的指标。

成本和利润框架

管理层此前曾表示，与人工智能基础设施（包括数据中心、专用芯片和计算能力）相关的资本支出增加。流量获取成本、人员配备水平和基础设施扩张也是影响盈利能力的关键变量。

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上个季度发生了什么

Alphabet的最新季度更新重点介绍了广告趋势、云盈利能力以及支持人工智能计划的资本支出的持续增长。

管理层的评论表明，基础设施支出旨在支持长期竞争力，而市场仍在评估短期利润权衡。

最新财报主要亮点

有关最近一个季度的报告数据和细分市场细节，请参阅Alphabet的最新财报发布材料，包括收入、每股收益（EPS）、服务组合、云运营收入和资本支出评论。

• 收入: 1023.5 亿美元
• EPS: 2.87 美元
• 营业收入: 312.3 亿美元
• 服务收入: 870.5 亿美元
• 云收入： 15.16 亿美元

2025 年第三季度谷歌服务收入和营业收入 | Alphabet 财报

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本季度的预期

彭博社的共识估计，与去年同期相比，收入同比（YoY）增长温和，每股收益将增加，鉴于人工智能相关投资，营业利润率将继续受到关注。

彭博共识参考点：

• EPS: 低至中等 2 美元区间
• 收入: 高达800亿美元至900亿美元低点区间
• 资本支出: 预计将保持较高水平

*截至2026年1月31日观察到的所有上述观点。

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市场隐含的预期

上市期权暗示在相关的近期到期窗口内，指示性预期波动幅度约为±4％至±6％。变动源于澳大利亚东部夏令时间2026年2月2日上午11点观察到的期权价格。

这些是市场隐含的估计，可能会发生变化。盈利后的实际价格变动可能更大或更小。

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这对澳大利亚市场参与者意味着什么

Alphabet的收益可能会影响美国主要股指的短期情绪，尤其是与纳斯达克挂钩的产品，并有可能在发布后溢出到亚洲时段。

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重要风险说明

在美国收盘并进入亚洲早盘后，纳斯达克100（NDX）期货和相关的差价合约定价可以立即反映出流动性减弱、利差扩大，以及围绕新信息的更大幅度重新定价。

相对于正常工作时间条件，这样的环境会增加差距风险和执行不确定性。

预计收益日期： 2026年2月5日星期四（美国，收盘后）/2026年2月6日星期五早些时候

亚马逊的收益让人们深入了解了全球消费者支出趋势、云基础设施需求及其零售、广告和订阅服务生态系统的货币化。

预计重点仍将放在关键业务领域的业绩上，以及对成本效率、资本支出和人工智能相关投资（包括数据中心扩张）的评论。

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重点领域

在线商店和第三方服务

亚马逊的核心零售业务仍然对全权消费者需求敏感，尤其是在12月季度的假日期间。市场可能会将重点放在第一方零售和第三方卖家服务的收入增长和利润率上。还将评估成本压力。

AWS（亚马逊网络服务）

AWS 是关键的收入驱动力。投资者可能会关注收入增长率、利润率趋势以及有关企业云支出的迹象。人工智能工作负载也将值得关注。任何关于产能扩张和资本支出的评论都可能受到密切关注。

广告服务

亚马逊的广告业务已成为越来越重要的利润贡献者。市场可能会评估增长势头、广告商需求以及广告如何整合到亚马逊的零售和Prime生态系统。

订阅服务（包括 Prime）

订阅收入包括 Prime 会员资格和相关的数字服务。投资者可以将参与度、定价动态和留存率趋势作为生态系统实力的指标。

成本和利润框架

管理层此前曾强调需要在配送、物流和公司支出方面实行成本管制。报告的营业利润率以及关键业务服务的效率提高或再投资优先事项的任何最新情况都将引起人们的兴趣。

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上个季度发生了什么

亚马逊最新的季度更新报告了收入增长和营业收入结果，其中AWS和广告被列为主要贡献者，同时零售业务持续采取了成本控制措施。

之前的更新还包括与云和人工智能基础设施的投资优先事项相关的讨论，这些优先事项继续影响市场预期。

最新财报主要亮点

• 收入: 1802 亿美元
• 每股收益（EPS）: 1.95 美元（摊薄）
• AWS 收入: 330 亿美元
• 广告服务收入: 177 亿美元
• 营业收入: 174 亿美元

上次市场反应如何

根据当时的报告，继上次发布之后，亚马逊股价在盘后交易中走高。

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本季度的预期

彭博社的共识估计表明，鉴于12月季度（第四季度）对亚马逊收益状况的重要性，截至2025年12月的季度每股收益将同比增长，市场将重点放在收入结果、营业利润率和AWS业绩上。

彭博共识参考点（2026年1月）：

• 每股收益： 大约 1.60 美元
• 收入: 大约 170 亿美元
• FY2026 全年每股收益: 大约 5.10 美元

*截至2026年1月27日观察到的所有上述观点。

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期望

鉴于亚马逊在美国主要股票指数中的较大指数权重及其在这些领域的作用，围绕亚马逊的市场情绪可能会对AWS增长、营业利润率或2025年12月季度（2025年第四季度）零售业绩的任何失望情绪敏感。

根据澳大利亚东部夏令时间2026年1月28日上午11点在Barchart上观察到的近期现价期权隐含预期走势估计，上市期权的指示性波动幅度约为±4％至±5％。

当时的隐含波动率约为32％。

这些是市场隐含的估计（不是预测），可能会发生变化。盈利后的实际价格变动可能更大或更小。

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这对澳大利亚投资者意味着什么

亚马逊的收益可能会影响美国主要股指的短期情绪，发布后可能会溢出到亚洲时段。它还可能影响人们对拥有大量在线销售敞口的澳大利亚证券交易所上市公司的情绪。

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重要风险说明

在美国收盘并进入亚洲早盘后，纳斯达克100（NDX）期货和相关的差价合约定价可以立即反映出流动性减弱、利差扩大，以及围绕新信息的更大幅度重新定价。

相对于正常工作时间条件，这样的环境会增加差距风险和执行不确定性。

预计收益日期： 2026年1月29日星期四（美国，收盘后）/2026年1月30日星期五早些时候（澳大利亚东部夏令时间）

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重点领域

苹果手机

iPhone仍然是苹果最大的收入驱动力。市场可能会关注单位需求、产品组合（包括高端车型）以及任何有关升级势头和区域趋势的信号。

服务

投资者可能会关注App Store、iCloud、苹果音乐和其他订阅等领域的增长，以及对每位用户平均收入（ARPU）的任何评论。Apple 用户群的规模和参与度仍然是整体性能的核心。

可穿戴设备、家居和配饰

该细分市场包括苹果手表、AirPods、Beats耳机、家居相关设备和配件等产品。投资者可能会将该细分市场的收入趋势视为全权消费者需求的指标。

成本和利润框架

管理层在先前的评论中指出了关税和零部件成本压力。市场可能对毛利率评论以及任何增量成本压力或缓解策略的信号保持敏感。

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上个季度发生了什么

苹果最新的季度更新（2025财年第四季度）突显了创纪录的9月季度收入和每股收益，以及创纪录的服务收入和对装机基础实力的持续关注。

之前的更新还包括对假日季度预期和成本不利因素（包括关税）的讨论，这些因素影响了预期利润率和管理层指导。

最新财报主要亮点

• 收入: 102.5 亿美元
• 每股收益（EPS）: 1.85 美元（摊薄）
• iPhone 收入: 490.3 亿美元
• 服务收入: 287.5 亿美元
• 净收入: 275 亿美元

上次市场反应如何

苹果股价在盘后交易中上涨，原因是投资者根据分析师的预期和管理层的假日季度评论（包括与关税相关的成本压力和区域需求方面的考虑）对业绩进行了评估。

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本季度的预期

彭博社的共识表明，每股收益将同比增长，鉴于假日季度的规模和对苹果收益状况的重要性，市场也将重点放在收入结果和毛利率上。

彭博共识参考点（2026年1月）：

• EPS: 大约 2.65 美元
• 收入: 大约 1380 亿美元
• FY2026 全年每股收益: 大约 8.1 美元

*截至2026年1月26日观察到的所有上述观点。

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期望

鉴于苹果的指数权重庞大以及本报告期的重要性，围绕苹果的情绪可能会对假日季度收入、服务业势头或利润率评论的任何失望情绪敏感。

根据澳大利亚东部夏令时间2026年1月25日上午11点在Barchart上观察到的近期现价期权隐含的预期走势估计，上市期权的指示性波动幅度约为±3％至±4％。当时的隐含波动率约为29％。

这些是市场隐含的估计（不是预测），可能会发生变化。盈利后的实际价格变动可能更大或更小。

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这对澳大利亚交易者意味着什么

苹果的收益可能会影响美国主要股指的短期情绪，尤其是与纳斯达克挂钩的产品，并有可能在发布后溢出到亚洲时段。

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重要风险说明

在美国收盘并进入亚洲早盘后，纳斯达克100（NDX）期货和相关的差价合约定价可以立即反映出流动性减弱、利差扩大，以及围绕新信息的更大幅度重新定价。

相对于正常工作时间条件，这样的环境会增加差距风险和执行不确定性。

Expected earnings date: Wednesday, 28 January 2026 (US, after market close) / early Thursday, 29 January 2026 (AEDT)

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Key areas in focus

The Tesla earnings release can act as a barometer for both global EV demand and capital-intensive innovation across automation and energy systems.

Vehicle deliveries and margins are likely to be the primary near-term drivers of sentiment. Investors will also be watching updates across adjacent initiatives that may influence longer-term growth expectations.

Autonomy and software (FSD)

Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) is a branded advanced driver-assistance feature sold in some markets and requires active driver supervision; availability and capabilities vary by jurisdiction. 

Further rollout and any expansion of autonomy-linked services remain subject to regulatory approvals and continued evolution of the underlying technology.

Energy generation and storage

Solar, Powerwall and Megapack remain a key focus, particularly given the segment’s recent growth contribution. 

Robotics (Optimus)

Optimus remains early stage, with no disclosed revenue contribution to date. It may become more relevant to Tesla’s longer-term AI and automation aspirations. 

Expectations remain delicately balanced between near-term margin pressure, the impact of demand and interest rate movements, and longer-term product and platform developments.

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What happened last quarter?

In Q3 2025 (September quarter), Tesla reported mixed results versus consensus expectations. Revenue and deliveries reached record levels, while earnings and margins remained under pressure amid pricing and cost dynamics. 

Tesla said it was navigating a challenging pricing environment while continuing to invest for long-term growth (as referenced in the shareholder communications cited below). 

Last earnings key highlights

• Revenue: ~US$28.1 billion 
• Earnings per share (EPS): ~US$0.50 (non-GAAP, diluted) 
• Total GAAP gross margin: ~18.0%; 
• Operating margin: ~5.8% 
• Free cash flow (FCF): ~US$4.0 billion 
• Vehicle deliveries: ~497,099 units, up ~7% year on year (YoY) 

How did the market react last time?

Tesla shares were volatile in after-hours trading, with attention focused on margins relative to revenue. 

What’s expected this quarter?

As of mid-January 2026, third-party consensus estimates (Bloomberg) indicated continued focus on revenue growth alongside profitability and margin resilience. These are third-party estimates, not company guidance, and can change. 

Key consensus reference points include: 

• Revenue: market expectations ~US$27 billion to US$28 billion 
• EPS: consensus clustered near US$0.55 to US$0.60 (adjusted) 
• Deliveries: market estimates ~510,000 to 520,000 vehicles 
• Margins: focus on whether automotive gross margin stabilises near recent levels or trends lower 
• Capital expenditure (capex): focus on spending discipline and efficiency rather than acceleration 

*All above points observed as of 16 January 2026.

Key areas markets often focus on include:

• Profit margin trajectory, and whether cost efficiencies are offsetting pricing pressure
• Delivery volumes relative to consensus expectations
• Pricing strategy and evidence of demand elasticity across regions
• Capex and implications for future FCF
• Progress in energy storage and non-automotive revenue streams
• Commentary on AI, autonomy and longer-term investment priorities

Expectations

Market sentiment could be described as cautiously optimistic, with investors weighing revenue momentum against margin concerns.

Price has pulled back into a range following a brief test of recent highs in December. Given the recent range-bound price action, deviations from consensus across key earnings metrics may prompt a larger move in either direction.

Listed options were pricing an indicative move of around ±5.5% based on near-dated options expiring after 28 January and an at-the-money (ATM) options-implied expected move estimate.

Implied volatility (IV) was about 47.7% annualised into the event, as observed on Barchart at 11:30 am AEDT on 16 January 2026 (local time of observation). 

These are market-implied estimates and may change. Actual post-earnings moves can be larger or smaller.

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What this means for Australian traders

Tesla’s earnings may influence near-term sentiment across US growth and technology indices, with potential flow-through to broader risk appetite.

For Australian markets, any read-through is often framed through supply chain sensitivity. Market participants may look to related sectors such as lithium and rare earth producers linked to EV inputs are one potential channel, alongside broader sentiment impacts from Tesla’s innovation commentary.

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Important risk note

Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information. 

Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.

Expected earnings date: Wednesday, 28 January 2026 (US, after market close) / early Thursday, 29 January 2026 (AEDT)

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Key areas in focus

Intelligent Cloud (Azure)

Azure remains Microsoft’s primary earnings swing factor. Markets are watching to see whether any growth reflects demand strength or capacity constraints, and how AI-related workloads are impacting margins.

Productivity and Business Processes

Microsoft 365, Office, and LinkedIn are sources of recurring revenue for Microsoft. Growth, pricing discipline, and client churn remain the key variables that markets will be watching.

Personal Computing

Windows, devices, and gaming are more cyclical. Stabilisation of PC demand and gaming engagement remain secondary sources of revenue but are still noteworthy.

Artificial intelligence

Approaches around the monetisation of Microsoft’s AI play are still developing. Trends in enrolment and infrastructure cost are expected to be key factors.

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What happened last quarter

Microsoft reported results ahead of consensus, supported by steady cloud demand and resilient enterprise software revenues. 

Azure and other cloud services' growth remained a central focus, alongside commentary on AI-related investment and capacity.

Last earnings key highlights:

• Revenue: US$77.7 billion 
• Earnings per share (EPS): US$3.72 (GAAP) and US$4.13 (non-GAAP adjusted) 
• Intelligent Cloud revenue: US$30.9 billion
• Azure and other cloud services: up 40% year on year 
• Operating income: US$38.0 billion 

How the market reacted last time

Microsoft shares fell in after-hours trading following the release, despite the beating of headline numbers, as investors focused on AI investment intensity, capacity constraints and related implications for future margins.

What’s expected this quarter

Bloomberg consensus points to continued revenue growth led by cloud services, alongside broadly stable margins despite elevated capex.

Bloomberg consensus reference points (January 2026):

• Revenue: about US$68 to US$69 billion 
• EPS: about US$3.10 to US$3.20 (adjusted) 
• Azure growth: mid-to-high 20% year on year (YoY) (constant currency) 
• Operating margin: expected to remain broadly stable 
• Capex: expected to remain elevated, reflecting AI and cloud build-out 

*All above points observed as of 16 January 2026.

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Expectations

Sentiment appears cautious. Microsoft can remain sensitive to any cloud, margin, or guidance disappointment, particularly where investors interpret investment intensity as open-ended.

Price action traded within an established range of US$472 and US$490 recently, but has moved below this in the last week.

Listed options were pricing an indicative move of around ±2% based on near-dated options expiring after 28 January and an at-the-money options-implied ‘expected move’ estimate.

Implied volatility was about 33.5% annualised into the event as observed on Barchart at 11:00 AEDT on 16^th January 2026.

These are market-implied estimates and may change; actual post-earnings moves can be larger or smaller.

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What this means for Australian traders

Microsoft’s earnings may influence near-term sentiment across US technology indices, particularly the Nasdaq, with potential spillover into global equity risk appetite and, in turn, the ASX.

As a major technology stock, and with Tesla (TSLA) also scheduled to report after the US close on the same day, volatility in Nasdaq-linked products may increase while futures markets remain open.

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Important risk note 

Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information. 

Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.

Expected earnings date: Wednesday, 28 January 2026 (US, after market close) / early Thursday, 29 January 2026 (AEDT)

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Key areas in focus

Advertising (Family of Apps)

Advertising remains Meta’s dominant revenue driver. AI-driven ad targeting, Reels monetisation, and engagement efficiency can be important contributors to revenue growth and may support advertiser outcomes, noting results can vary by advertiser, format, and market conditions.

User engagement and monetisation

Engagement trends across Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Threads remain closely watched as indicators that can influence monetisation assumptions and medium-term expectations.

Artificial intelligence

Meta views AI as a foundation for content discovery, advertising performance, and the development of generative tools. Markets may continue to evaluate whether AI-driven gains offset the level of infrastructure and data centre investment required to support these projects.

Reality Labs

Reality Labs remains loss-making. Management continues to frame AR/VR and metaverse-related platforms as long-term strategic investments, while acknowledging continued operating losses and a drag on earnings performance.

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What happened last quarter

Meta’s most recent quarterly update highlighted strong revenue growth alongside ongoing investment themes. 

The company’s reported (GAAP) net income and EPS reflected a one-time, non-cash income tax charge disclosed in the earnings materials, while management commentary also emphasised cost discipline and investment priorities.

Operating margins expanded year-on-year, despite elevated AI-related investment.

Last earnings key highlights

• Revenue: US$51.24 billion 
• Earnings per share (EPS): US$1.05 (GAAP) 
• Advertising revenue: US$50.08 billion 
• Operating margin: 40% 
• Reality Labs operating loss: about US$4.43 billion 

How the market reacted last time

Meta shares fell in after-hours trading after the release. Commentary at the time highlighted strong top-line outcomes, alongside investor focus on the outlook for spending and the pace of AI and infrastructure investment.

What’s expected this quarter

Bloomberg consensus points to continued year-on-year revenue growth, led by advertising, with operating margins expected to remain elevated despite ongoing AI and infrastructure expenditure.

Bloomberg consensus reference points (January 2026)

• Revenue: about US$41 to US$43 billion 
• EPS: about US$4.80 to US$5.10 (adjusted) 
• Advertising growth: high-teens year on year (YoY) 
• Operating margin: expected to remain above 40% 
• Capital expenditure (capex): elevated, reflecting AI and data centre investment 

*All above points observed as of 23 January 2026.

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Expectations

Sentiment around Meta Platforms may be sensitive to any disappointment around advertising demand, margin sustainability, or the scale of ongoing investment in AI and Reality Labs.

Recent price action suggests that some market participants appear to be pricing in a relatively constructive earnings outcome, which can increase sensitivity to negative surprises.

Listed options were pricing an indicative move of around ±3% based on near-dated options expiring after 28 January and an at-the-money options-implied ‘expected move’ estimate.

Implied volatility was about 31% annualised into the event, as observed on Barchart at 11:00 am AEDT on 23 January 2026.

These are market-implied estimates and may change. Actual post-earnings moves can be larger or smaller.

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What this means for Australian traders

Meta’s earnings may influence near-term sentiment across US technology indices, particularly the Nasdaq, with potential spillover into broader global equity risk appetite and index-linked products traded during the Asia session after the release, which can be volatile and unpredictable following earnings events.

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Important risk note

Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information. 

Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.