After last week’s blockbuster NFP figure FX traders have a key US CPI reading to look forward to later today. Rates markets have seen see-sawing expectations on when the Fed will start cutting rates and today’s CPI will be another big part of that puzzle. US CPI for March is expected to come in at a 0.3% increase, a slight cooling from Februarys 0.4% but still stubbornly holding the Year-on-Year rate at 3.4%, showing that not progress in the battle to bring down inflation is slow going and not over yet.
USD has been in a holding pattern during April with the US dollar Index range trading between the support at 104 and resistance at 105, the 104 support is certainly in play should a cooler than expected CPI reading come in, with the next support at the 200-day SMA at 103.81 Golds record run-up to all time highs has seen the precious metal take headlines during April. As an inflation hedge it should benefit from a hot CPI reading, but a cool reading would see yields and the USD drop which is also gold positive. It’s hard to predict how gold will react fundamentally to todays CPI, though from a chartist point of view XAUUSD is in serious overbought territory and a correction is overdue.
By
Lachlan Meakin
Head of Research, GO Markets Australia.
本文由 GO Markets 的分析師及撰稿人撰寫，內容基於其獨立分析或個人經驗。文中所表達的觀點、意見或交易風格均屬作者個人，並不代表或反映 GO Markets 的立場。任何提供的建議均屬一般性，並未考慮您的個人目標、財務狀況或需求。在採取任何行動之前，請考慮該建議是否適合您的目標、財務狀況與需求。若該建議涉及購買特定金融產品，請於作出任何決定前，先閱讀我們網站上提供的《產品揭露聲明書》（Disclosure Statement, DS）及其他法律文件。
