市場新聞與洞察

Following the previous Bitcoin analysis ( https://www.gomarkets.com/au/articles/economic-updates/bitcoin-usd-technical-analysis/ ), bitcoin continues to break below pattern after pattern, recently breaking out and re-testing a descending flag pattern on a 4h time frame as seen below: With the next major support sitting around $17,619, it won’t be a surprise if bitcoin comes down to that area. Looking at the correlation between Bitcoin and Ethereum, the last 7 days of price action shows a correlation of.89, which is a positive value that indicates a positive correlation between the two. A positive correlation means that the two moves very similar to one another. [caption id="attachment_273298" align="alignnone" width="602"] (https://cryptowat.ch/correlations)[/caption] [caption id="attachment_273299" align="alignnone" width="527"] (https://cryptowat.ch/correlations)[/caption] For ETHUSD (Ethereum), making similar patterns to BTCUSD, has also recently broken out of a descending flag pattern, signalling a probable continuation of the 4h downtrend, there is a high probability of ETHUSD reaching the next major support around $1012.

The USDJPY has been one of the strongest performing currency pairs since the beginning of the year. With geopolitical volatility and record high inflation rates impacting the global economy, the strength of the USD has just continued to be on show. On the contrary, the JPY has been pillaged from pillar to post as the Bank of Japan has refused to change form its dovish stance and remain one of the few countries committed to holding interest rates low in the medium term.

The different responses The US Federal Reserve has become extremely hawkish with its monetary policy, after describing inflation as transitory only last year. After recording extremely hot CPI and Core CP figures for the last month as the yield on US government treasuries has increased and trader price in more interest rate hikes. Conversely the BOJ has continued to keep a 0.25% cap on its 10-year government bonds.

On the other hand, a weak JPY makes the cost of importing energy and food more expensive in Japan. This is especially problematic as the global energy crunch and inflation have sent the price of these goods and commodities sky rocketing. The BOJ has also continued to buy up government debt stimulating the economy which has further weakened the currency.

However, unlike, much of the rest of the world, Japan’s inflation level is still relatively low. These actions of both banks and the current economic climate has led to a situation where the USDJPY is currently at 30-year highs and only looking to go higher. The price has been going up aggressively since 2021 has been an aggressive upward trend.

Since March 2022 the price has sped up and broken through decade high levels. The BOJ has so far been unwilling to change, at least until April 2023 meaning there is little to stop the JPY continuing to fall. On the other side, with the Federal Reserve set to continue raising rates there is nothing to stop the USD from continuing to climb.

Technical Analysis In recent days the price has begun to consolidate into a flag or pennant pattern. As it can be seen on the chart, the price has reduced its range and volume as it has paused amid its push upward. A pattern like this is not unexpected and is standard of a strong upward trend.

In addition, with important economic events to come like the FOMC meeting and the shift in federal funds rate, the USD may increase its strength if the rates incur an unexpectedly increase in rates. The next target if the price does break out of the triangle is 147 and then 160. Various economic events can still play a role in either pushing the price up or down.

AutoZone Inc. (AZO) reported its fourth quarter financial results for the period ending August 27, 2022 on Monday. The largest US retailer of aftermarket automotive parts reported revenue of $5.348 billion (up by 8.9% from the same period last year) vs. $5.164 billion expected. The company reported earnings per share of $40.51 for the quarter vs. $38.51 earnings per share expected. ''Our results are a testament to our AutoZoners’ ongoing commitment to delivering exceptional customer service every day.

Our retail business performed well this quarter ending with positive same store sales on top of last year’s strong performance. And, our commercial business growth continued to be exceptionally strong at 22%. The investments we have made in both inventory availability and technology are enhancing our competitive positioning.

We are optimistic about our growth prospects heading into our new fiscal year,'' Bill Rhodes, Chairman, President and CEO of AutoZone commented on the results. During the quarter, AutoZone opened 118 new stores and closed one in the United States. As of August 27, 2022, the company had 6,943 stores within the United States (6,168), Mexico (703) and Brazil (72).

AutoZone Inc. (AZO) chart Shares of AutoZone were down by around 2% on Monday, trading at $2100.66 a share. Stock performance 1 month: -6.28% 3 months: +8.69% Year-to-date: +3.30% 1 year: +36.62% AutoZone price targets UBS: $2260 Wells Fargo: $2450 Raymond James: $2350 Goldman Sachs: $2296 Morgan Stanley: $2420 Citigroup: $2250 JP Morgan: $2200 AutoZone is the 364 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $42.20 billion. You can trade AutoZone Inc. (AZO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.

Sources: AutoZone Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

The NZDJPY like most currencies against the JPY has been in a strong uptrend for over 2 years. With the Central Bank of Japan remaining dovish in its monetary policy the currency has taken a beating against most other currencies and as other Central Banks have acted against rising inflation. The NZD has been able to take advantage of the JPY weakness and consolidate into a large symmetrical triangle.

The price recently broke out of the triangle to the upside before failing to push through the next resistance point at 87.350 JPY and falling back down. This was in part due to the hot inflation figures that came from the USA. With CPI and core CPI figures being higher than expected the risk on currencies like the AUD and the NZD both dropped as the market looked to move their money into safer assets.

The drop was seen most clearly against the USD in which the NZD fell to 26-month lows. New Zealand also just announced their q/q GDP figures showing very strong result with a 1.7% increase for the quarter, which was 0.7% higher than what was expected, and 1.8% higher than the prior period. The price of the NZDJPY initially spiked up on the announcement although since then it has been a tight consolidation.

Technicals As discussed above, the price failed to break above the 87.35 resistance point and subsequently sold back down. However, it has not yet breached the triangle to the downside and may just be a fake out. The RSI also mirrors the breakout with the tight consolidation of the RSI before a spike to the upside.

With the price attempting to reach decade highs a fake out/ retracement is not particularly unexpected. As shown in the chart, it is possible, the price action will retest the resistance point before breaking higher. The next resistance point after if the breakout does occur will be 90.00 JPY.

However, this area is a relatively heavy supply zones as seen on the weekly chart. The weekly chart also indicates a long term upward trending channel, which provides more support for a continuation of the upward move. Shifts in the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy may negatively impact this trade.

At this stage they have been unwilling to change their dovish stance, however if they were to increase interest rates, a shift may occur and likely very quickly, therefore some caution is needed.

The CHF has moved almost parabolically against the JPY and is almost touching 150, which would mark a 40 year first. With the Bank of Japan indicating its need to maintain current interest rate levels which are already among the lowest in the western world, the currency has been severely weakened. Statement that has come from some of its members indicate that there is no intention to adjust their Dovish policy even while the JPY continued to be smashed from pillar to post.

The CHF on the other hand been one of the stronger currencies outside of the USD as the countries, especially in recent months. With relatively low inflation and high volatility in the region the CHF has stood up well against most other currencies and been a source of stability. Therefore, the pair represents a trading opportunity by taking advantage of extremes of both a strong and weak currency.

The chart shows the pair has moved almost parabolically on the weekly timeframe. The price is currently at multi decade highs, with the 149.75 price the highest it has been since 1980. Whilst the 150 level is not a specific resistance point, it poses as a psychological level that may prove difficult to break out of.

On the daily chart, the recent break above 140 required 3 months of consolidation before it broke above the level. Since then, the breakout has largely been without any retracement or pullback. Therefore, it would not be unexpected for the price to pullback, especially as it gets closer to the 150 level.

The RSI is also supporting a pullback as it is in highly overbought territory at 80. If it does retrace then it may bounce off the recent support level at 142/143, and then rise target of 158 may become possible. If the Bank of Japan does decide to change its tune in regard to its dovish policy, then this trade does have the potential to go the other way with the JPY increasing in value very quickly, although at this stage there is nothing to indicate that this will occur.

The Kroger Company (KR) released its latest financial results for Q2 on Friday. The American grocery supermarket chain reported revenue of $34.638 billion for the quarter vs. $34.461 billion estimate. Earnings per share also beat analyst estimates at $0.90 per share vs. $0.82 per share expected. "Kroger delivered strong second quarter results propelled by our Leading with Fresh and Accelerating with Digital strategy.

We are incredibly thankful for our dedicated associates who continue to deliver a full, fresh and friendly customer experience," CEO of Kroger, Rodney McMullen said in a press release. "Our consistent performance underscores the resiliency and flexibility of our business model, which enables Kroger to thrive in many different operating environments. We are applying technology and innovation to improve freshness, grow Our Brands, and create a seamless shopping experience so our customers can get what they want, when and how they want it, with zero compromise on quality, selection and affordability." We will continue to focus on providing affordable, fresh food to our customers, investing in wages and the associate experience, and creating zero hunger, zero waste communities because when we do those things well, we deliver attractive and sustainable shareholder returns," McMullen added. The Kroger Company (KR) chart The stock price of Kroger rose by around 5% on Friday, trading at $51.07 a share.

Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 month +8.20% 3 months -0.02% Year-to-date +12.86% 1 year +19.71% Kroger price targets Credit Suisse $55 Oppenheimer $51 Guggenheim $57 Morgan Stanley $41 Deutsche Bank $53 BNP Paribas $60 The Kroger Company is the 450 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $36.27 billion. You can trade The Kroger Company (KR) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: The Kroger Company, TradingView, MetaTrader 5, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap