Noticias del mercado & perspectivas
Anticípate a los mercados con perspectivas de expertos, noticias y análisis técnico para guiar tus decisiones de trading.
Los datos de inflación de Estados Unidos del miércoles son la pieza central de la semana, pero con el petróleo acercándose a máximos de siete meses, el sentimiento de Bitcoin (BTC) cambiando y el dólar australiano en máximos de tres años, los comerciantes tienen mucho que navegar en la próxima semana.
Datos rápidos
- La tasa de inflación de Estados Unidos (febrero) es el evento binario clave para la fijación de precios de reducción de tasas y la dirección de la renta variable.
- El crudo Brent cotiza alrededor de US$82—84/BBL, cerca de máximos de siete meses, con una prima de riesgo geopolítico de 4 a 10 dólares gracias a las tensiones entre Irán y Ormuz.
- Bitcoin cotiza por encima de los 70.000 dólares al 6 de marzo, un posible cambio de tendencia si se mantiene a lo largo de la semana.
Estados Unidos: la inflación en foco
La lectura de inflación estadounidense del mes pasado mostró que los precios subieron 2.4% interanual, aún muy por encima de la meta de 2% de la Fed.
La tasa de inflación de febrero, que vence el miércoles, será examinada en busca de señales de que la traspaso de las tarifas o el aumento de los costos de la energía están haciendo que los precios vuelvan a subir, o si la lenta bajada sigue intacta.
La reunión del FOMC de marzo del 17 al 18 de marzo ahora tiene un precio de solo 4.7% de probabilidad de un recorte. Una impresión de inflación más alta de lo esperado esta semana podría potencialmente empujar aún más las expectativas de recorte de tasas.
Una lectura más suave abre la puerta a una nueva reducción de precios y un posible alivio en los activos de riesgo.
Fechas clave
- Tasa de inflación de Estados Unidos (IPC de febrero): Miércoles 11 de marzo, 12:30 h (AEDT)
Monitorear
- La divergencia de inflación básica frente a la general como evidencia de traspaso arancelario en los precios de los bienes.
- Sensibilidad de rendimiento de tesorería a 2 y 10 años a la impresión.
- Dirección del USD y retarificación de FedWatch antes de la decisión del FOMC del 18 de marzo.
Aceite: elevado y sensible a los eventos
Actualmente, el Brent cotiza alrededor de US$83—85 por barril, con un rango de 52 semanas que abarca US$58,40 a US$85,12, lo que refleja el dramático movimiento desencadenado por el conflicto de Oriente Medio.
Analistas estiman que la prima de riesgo geopolítico ya horneada al petróleo en 4 a 10 dólares por barril, y los pronósticos promedio del Brent 2026 se han elevado a 63,85 dólares por bbl, frente a los 62,02 dólares de enero.
El Perspectiva Energética a Corto Plazo de la EIA pronostica que el Brent promediará $58/bbl en 2026, muy por debajo del precio spot actual.
La brecha entre el spot y la línea base del pronóstico podría ser un marco útil para los comerciantes esta semana: cualquier señal de desescalada de Oriente Medio podría cerrar rápidamente esa brecha.
Monitorear
- Desarrollos del Estrecho de Ormuz y cualquier señal diplomática de las conversaciones nucleares de Irán.
- Datos de inventario de petróleo semanal de EIA.
- El derribación del petróleo a las expectativas de inflación y si cambia la postura del banco central.
- Desempeño de la renta variable del sector energético en relación con el mercado en general.
Bitcoin: vigilancia del sentimiento
BTC ha estado intentando estabilizarse después de una brutal corrección del 53% en las últimas 17 semanas, alimentada por la escalada de tensiones geopolíticas y las renovadas preocupaciones arancelarias.
No obstante, ayer se vio un salto de 8% por encima de los 72,000 dólares, y el cripto “índice de miedo y codicia” saltó a 29 (miedo), arriba desde debajo de 20 (miedo extremo), donde lleva más de un mes sentado, lo que indica un posible cambio de sentimiento.
Una impresión de inflación estadounidense más fresca de lo esperado el miércoles podría proporcionar más combustible para la ruptura; una impresión caliente corre el riesgo de que BTC vuelva a estar por debajo del nivel de US$70,000 que acaba de recuperar.
Monitorear
- Inflación impresión reacción el miércoles como el macrocatalizador primario de la mudanza.
- Cualquier rotación a altcoins siguiendo la fuerza de BTC.
- Datos de entrada/salida de ETF como confirmación de participación institucional.
AUD/USD: El RBA de Hawkish se encuentra con vientos cruzados geopolíticos
El australiano cotiza cerca de máximos de más de tres años y se dirige a su cuarta ganancia mensual consecutiva, con un aumento de más del 6% en lo que va de año, lo que la convierte en la moneda del G10 de mejor desempeño en 2026.
El impulsor es una clara divergencia política. La gobernadora del RBA, Michele Bullock, señaló que la reunión de política de marzo está “viva” para un posible aumento de tasas, y advirtió que un choque en el precio del petróleo por las tensiones en Irán podría reavivar las presiones inflacionarias internas.
Los precios de mercado ahora sugieren alrededor de un 28% de posibilidades de una subida de 25 pb en la próxima reunión, mientras que la fijación de precios por completo se ajustará hasta mayo, y alrededor de un 75% de probabilidad de otro aumento a 4.35% para fin de año.
Esta lectura tensa, puesta en contra de una Fed en espera y que enfrenta una presión política dótica, crea un potencial viento de cola estructural para el australiano.
Monitorear
- Reacción del AUD/USD al dato de inflación estadounidense del miércoles.
- Probabilidad de alza de tasa del RBA reajuste de precios a lo largo de la semana.
- El mineral de hierro y los precios de las materias primas como impulsores secundarios del AUD.
- China demanda señales, dada la exposición exportadora de Australia.
World’s largest healthcare company, UnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE: UNH), reported fourth quarter and 2023 full-year financial results on Friday. The company achieved revenue of $94.427 billion for Q4 of 2023 (up by 14% vs. Q4 2022) vs. $92.126 billion expected.
Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $6.16 per share vs. estimate of $5.985 per share. Full-year revenue reached $371.6 billion, up by 15% vs. 2022. EPS reported at $25.12 per share, up by 13.2% year-over-year.
Company’s medical costs rose by 16.1% from $53.591 billion to $62.231 billion. Company overview Founded: 1977 Headquarters: Minnetonka, Minnesota, United States Number of employees: 440,000 (2023) Industry: Managed healthcare, insurance Key people: Stephen J. Hemsley (Chair), Andrew Witty (CEO), Dirk McMahon (President, COO), John Rex (CFO) CEO commentary "UnitedHealth Group enters 2024 well prepared to build on our efforts to improve patient care and consumer experiences broadly, and to continue delivering strong and balanced growth," Andrew Witty, CEO of the company highlighted on what the company is focusing on in the year ahead.
Stock reaction Shares of UnitedHealth were down by around 3% on Friday despite beating analyst estimates for the quarter due to rising operating costs. Stock performance 5 day: -3.16% 1 month: -2.02% 3 months: -3.52% Year-to-date: -1.15% 1 year: +6.30% UnitedHealth stock price targets HSBC: $480 Stephens: $585 Truist Financial: $610 Royal Bank of Canada: $596 Jefferies Financial Group: $503 Morgan Stanley: $579 Piper Sandler: $584 UBS Group: $640 Deutsche Bank: $555 TD Cowen: $555 JP Morgan: $532 Wells Fargo: $561 Mizuho: 549 UnitedHealth Group Inc. is the 15th largest company in the world with a market cap of $481.23 billion. You can trade UnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE: UNH) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''. GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: UnitedHealth Group Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
FX traders come into the new week with an uptick in tier one economic releases to look forward to after a very slow start to the year volatility-wise. Australian and US employment figures, UK CPI and US retail sales look to headline from Tuesday onwards (Monday is a US public holiday) The Charts to watch: AUDUSD AUDUSD has struggled to find any real direction in the last week of trading after a marked decline to start the year. The pair has whipsawed in a tight range from 0.6735 to the upside with a lower range boundary of 0.6645.
With the market still undecided on the RBA’s moves going forward (peak rates? cuts?) Thursday’s job report could see the Aussie find some direction, with the above range levels the key levels to watch. After November’s bumper figure a surprise to the downside this time round could be on the cards. GBPUSD The uptrend GBPUSD has travelled in since October has petered out somewhat in 2024 to date with Cable also trading in a directionless range for the last week.
For chartists there is a multitude of important levels to watch coming into the new week. Upper trendline and cycle high resistance along with lower trendline and cycle low support being the key levels to watch this week. To add to the mix for fundamental traders we have UK CPI and retail sales along with another speaking engagement for BoE governor Bailey.
USDJPY Bucking the trend of the low volatility of other pairs, USDJPY has had s harp rally so far in 2024, following US10-JP10 yield differentials higher. Last weeks move higher in the pair saw a disconnect in the relationship and USDJPY could struggle to push much higher unless this differential turns around. US economic releases this week will play a big part in where those yields go, with retail sales, employment and consumer sentiment all due to hit the wires from Wednesday onwards. 146 to the upside and 144 to the downside the key levels to watch for the chartists.
Full weeks calendar at the link below: https://www.gomarkets.com/au/economic-calendar/
US financial services company, Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), announced Q4 2023 and full year financial results before the US open on Tuesday. Morgan Stanley reported revenue of $12.896 billion for the previous quarter, narrowly beating analyst estimate of $12.773 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) fell well short of Wall Street expectations at $0.85 vs. $1.074 per share expected.
The company achieved revenue for $54.1 billion in 2023. EPS reached $5.18 per share. Company overview Founded: 1935 Headquarters: New York, United States Number of employees: 80,257 (2022) Industry: Financial services Key people: James P.
Gorman (Executive Chairman), Ted Pick (CEO), Andy Saperstein (Co-President), Dan Simkowitz (Co-President), Sharon Yeshaya (CFO) CEO commentary "In 2023, the Firm reported a solid ROTCE* against a mixed market backdrop and a number of headwinds. We begin 2024 with a clear and consistent business strategy and a unified leadership team. We are focused on achieving our long-term financial goals and continuing to deliver for shareholders," CEO of Morgan Stanley, Ted Pick, commented on the results in a statement to shareholders. *Return on tangible equity Stock reaction The stock was down by over 4% after the announcement of the latest results.
Shares were trading at $85.80 a share – the lowest level in over a month. Stock performance 5 day: -7.92% 1 month: -5.13% 3 months: +9.36% Year-to-date: -7.67% 1 year: -6.07% Morgan Stanley stock price targets HSBC: $96 JP Morgan: $94 UBS Group: $95 Bank of America: $100 Barclays: $116 Royal Bank of Canada: $85 Goldman Sachs: $100 Societe Generale: $80 BNP Paribas: $85 Oppenheimer: $103 Evercore: $97 Morgan Stanley is the 88th largest company in the world with a market cap of $141.14 billion. You can trade Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Morgan Stanley, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Since reaching a local bottom in October of last year, XAUUSD has experienced a strong uptrend of over 13%. Closing its third consecutive positive session, Gold is inching closer to its all-time high, now sitting just above $2,050 USD per ounce. From a technical standpoint, Gold is following a well-defined rising channel that has been predominantly respected since November 2023.
As the price approaches the midpoint of this channel, there is a possibility, especially on lower time frames, that this point may act as temporary resistance. This is a crucial level to monitor closely. Image: GOLD Chart The recent positive momentum in XAUUSD is closely tied to escalating tensions in the Middle East.
The enduring conflict between Gaza and Israel, coupled with the initiation of a new US-led conflict in Yemen against the Houthis, has contributed to the precious metal's strength. The current economic landscape in the United States, along with projections for rate cuts in 2024, also is playing a pivotal role in Gold's recent performance. In response to US inflation climbing from nearly 0% to a peak of 9.10% in July 2022, the US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates 11 times.
The rates have surged from 0.25% to the current 5.50%. Image: CPI and Federal Funds Rate (FFR) Chart Data suggests the possibility of multiple rate cuts in 2024, with some anticipating cuts as early as the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. According to CME data, market expectations indicate a projection of six rate cuts for 2024, culminating in an effective rate of approximately 3.50-3.75% by year-end.
Image: CME FedWatch Historically, the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets like Gold tends to rise when interest rates decrease, contributing to the recent upward trajectory of Gold prices. Gold traders will be closely monitoring the evolving tensions in the Middle East and upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. This scrutiny aims to draw insights into the potential timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts and their subsequent impact on Gold's market dynamics.
A hotter than expected CPI reading out of the UK along with a beat in US retail sales saw global markets turn risk off as rates markets hawkishly re-priced chances of cuts coming from Central Banks. The unwinding of priced in Fed cuts saw a spike in treasury yields and the USD bid, with DXY hitting a high of 103.69 after the December US retail sales report came in hotter than expected. DXY finding resistance at the July-October 50% Fib level before paring gains.
GBP saw decent gains vs the USD and EUR after a beat in the December UK CPI reading where the Y/Y figure came in at 4% vs an expected 3.8%. GBPUSD fell just short of breaching the 1.2700 level, hitting a high of 1.2696 as UK rates markets priced in a lower amount of 2024 rate cuts. JPY was weak throughout the session with losses accelerating after the US retail sales report.
USDJPY taking out the big figure at 148 rising in lockstep the US-JP yield differential. On current momentum the psychological 150 level is possibly coming into play, and with it, BoJ intervention speculation. AUDUSD extended January’s losses on the sour risk sentiment and mixed Chinese figures on Wednesday.
The Aussie holding below 0.6600 and dropping to Decembers lows at 0.6520 before finding some support. AUD traders have todays key December employment report to look forward to, after a bumper November reading this one will be watched closely.
Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) announced Q4 2023 financial results before the opening bell in Wall Street on Friday. The US bank reported revenue that fell short of estimates of $23.5 billion vs. $23.703 billion expected. Earnings per share was reported well below analyst expectations at $0.35 per share vs. $0.533 per share estimate.
Company overview Founded: 1998 (via the merger of BankAmerica & NationsBank), 1956 (as BankAmerica), 1784 (as its predecessor, the Massachusetts Bank, through the merger with FleetBoston in 1999) Headquarters: Charlotte, North Carolina, United States Number of employees: 217,000 (2022) Industry: Financial services Key people: Brian Moynihan (Chairman and CEO), Anne Finucane (Co-Vice chairman), Bruce Thompson (Co-Vice chairman) CEO commentary "We reported solid fourth quarter and full-year results as all our businesses achieved strong organic growth, with record client activity and digital engagement. This activity led to good loan demand and growth in deposits in the quarter and full-year net income of $26.5 billion. Our expense discipline allowed us to continue investing in growth initiatives.
Strong capital and liquidity levels position us well to continue to deliver responsible growth in 2024," CEO of Bank of America, Brian Moynihan said in a press release. Stock reaction The stock was down by just over 1% on Friday at $32.77 a share. Stock performance 5 day: -5.68% 1 month: -3.35% 3 months: +21.36% Year-to-date: -3.55% 1 year: -7.82% Bank of America stock price targets Barclays: $43 Odean Capital Group: $37.94 Goldman Sachs: $33 Oppenheimer: $51 BMO Capital Markets: $40 Jefferies Financial Group: $28 Evercore ISI: $33 Morgan Stanley: $32 Piper Sandler: $27.50 Royal Bank of Canada: $35 HSBC: $35 Wells Fargo: $40 Citigroup: $33 UBS Group: $36 JP Morgan: $34 Bank of America Corp. is the 39th largest company in the world with a market cap of $256.76 billion.
You can trade Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Excludes Fridays. Please see specifications section on platform for further details.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Bank of America Corp., TradingView, MarketWatch, CompaniesMarketCap, MarketBeat