Notícias de mercado & insights
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A última mudança no setor de petróleo colocou os nomes de energia de volta em foco. Nos últimos seis meses, a Exxon Mobil e a Baker Hughes superaram o petróleo Brent em uma base normalizada, a Chevron permaneceu amplamente construtiva, o SLB ficou atrás da commodity e o consenso dos corretores da Woodside foi mais medido.
Quando o petróleo bruto se move, o impacto raramente permanece contido na própria mercadoria. Os preços mais altos do petróleo podem afetar as expectativas de inflação, os custos de envio e as margens corporativas em toda a economia global.
O que a última jogada está mostrando
Existem três maneiras pelas quais as empresas podem se beneficiar de preços mais firmes do petróleo:
- Produzindo petróleo e gás, vendendo a mercadoria a um preço mais alto
- Fornecimento de serviços e equipamentos aos produtores
- Transportando petróleo ao redor do mundo
Cada um dos nomes abaixo representa um desses tipos de exposição, com um perfil de risco diferente quando o petróleo bruto sobe.
1. Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM)
Nos últimos seis meses, a Exxon Mobil superou o petróleo Brent, com o preço de suas ações subindo quase 35% em comparação com cerca de 30% do Brent. Em 11 de março de 2026, ambos estavam sendo negociados pouco mais de 3% abaixo de seus máximos históricos, enquanto a Exxon permaneceu perto de sua alta de 52 semanas.
A Exxon Mobil é uma das maiores empresas de petróleo integradas do mundo, com exposição que abrange exploração, produção, refino e produtos químicos. Quando os preços do petróleo sobem, seus negócios upstream podem se beneficiar de margens mais amplas, enquanto sua escala e diversificação podem ajudar a amortecer partes mais fracas do ciclo.
Desempenho de 6 meses da Exxon Mobil (XOM) versus Brent Crude
Consenso dos analistas: compre
De acordo com dados do TradingView, o sentimento dos analistas em relação à Exxon é amplamente positivo. Dos 31 analistas acompanhados, 15 classificam a ação como Strong Buy or Buy, 13 a classificam como Hold, 1 a classifica como Sell e 2 a classificam como Strong Sell.
Essa visão positiva está ligada à força do balanço patrimonial da Exxon e à produção com margens mais altas. Os analistas mais otimistas projetam uma meta de preço de 1 ano de até USD 183,00. O preço-alvo médio é de USD 145,00, cerca de 3,6% abaixo do preço de negociação atual.
2. Chevron (NYSE: CVX)
A Chevron é outra empresa global integrada que se beneficiou da recente alta do petróleo bruto, com suas ações sendo negociadas perto de máximos de 52 semanas. Como a Exxon, a Chevron opera em toda a cadeia de valor, incluindo produção inicial, refino e marketing.
A aquisição completa da Hess pela Chevron adiciona a Guiana e outros ativos upstream, que alguns analistas consideram favoráveis ao longo do tempo. Dito isso, o impacto nos lucros permanece sujeito aos riscos de integração, execução de projetos e preços de commodities.
Desempenho da Exxon Mobil vs Chevron, gráfico de 6 meses
Consenso dos analistas: compre
A Chevron é vista de forma semelhante à Exxon, com o sentimento do corretor permanecendo amplamente construtivo. Agregados recentes do TradingView mostram 30 analistas cobrindo as ações nos últimos três meses, com 17 classificando-as como Forte Compra ou Compra, 11 em Retenção, 1 em Venda e 1 em Forte Venda.
Analistas destacaram o portfólio diversificado da Chevron e a contribuição potencial da Hess, embora a volatilidade dos preços das commodities e o risco de execução possam manter alguns mais cautelosos.
3. SLB (NYSE: SLB)
A SLB, anteriormente conhecida como Schlumberger, é uma das maiores provedoras de serviços e tecnologia de campos petrolíferos do mundo. Ela fornece ferramentas, equipamentos e software que ajudam os produtores a encontrar, perfurar e concluir poços com mais eficiência.
Nos últimos seis meses, o SLB ficou atrás do petróleo Brent, com o preço das ações sendo negociado em uma faixa mais agitada e permanecendo abaixo de seu pico recente. Isso sugere que o cenário mais forte do petróleo não se refletiu totalmente no preço das ações.
Esse padrão não é incomum em empresas de serviços de campos petrolíferos, nas quais as decisões de gastos dos clientes geralmente seguem os movimentos da mercadoria subjacente, em vez de se moverem em sintonia com eles. Qualquer reavaliação futura dependeria de fatores, incluindo gastos de capital do produtor, prazo do contrato, preços de serviços, atividade offshore e condições de mercado mais amplas. Não se deve presumir que um preço mais firme do petróleo se traduza automaticamente em um preço mais firme das ações da SLB.
SLB vs petróleo Brent, desempenho normalizado de 6 meses
Consenso: Comprar
De acordo com dados do TradingView, o consenso de analistas terceirizados sobre o SLB é Buy. Dos 33 analistas que cobrem a ação, 27 a classificam como Strong Buy or Buy, 4 a classificam como Hold e 2 a classificam como Sell ou Strong Sell.
Isso indica um sentimento construtivo dos corretores, embora a diferença entre os preços do petróleo e o desempenho recente do preço das ações da SLB sugira que os investidores ainda possam querer evidências mais claras de melhorar a demanda e os preços dos serviços antes que as ações reflitam totalmente o cenário mais forte das commodities.
4. Baker Hughes (NASDAQ: BKR)
A Baker Hughes é outra grande fornecedora de serviços e equipamentos para campos petrolíferos, com exposição adicional a segmentos industriais, como GNL e infraestrutura de energia. Mesmo quando os preços do petróleo não estão em níveis extremos, os avanços na tecnologia de perfuração e os menores custos de equilíbrio ajudaram a manter lucrativas muitas áreas de xisto, apoiando a demanda por seus serviços.
A empresa também foi descrita como bem posicionada por causa de seu balanço patrimonial e sua exposição à atividade contínua de exploração e produção. Em um período de preços do petróleo mais altos, ou mesmo estáveis para firmes, essa combinação de serviços e tecnologia de energia pode criar vários geradores de receita.
Nos últimos seis meses, a Baker Hughes superou materialmente o petróleo Brent de forma normalizada. O Brent foi negociado em uma faixa muito mais estreita durante a maior parte do período, antes de subir mais tarde, enquanto o BKR subiu de forma mais constante e alcançou um ganho cumulativo significativamente mais forte. Isso sugere que o preço das ações da BKR se beneficiou não apenas do cenário do petróleo, mas também do otimismo específico da empresa e do apoio mais amplo aos nomes de serviços de campos petrolíferos e tecnologia de energia.
BKR vs petróleo Brent, desempenho normalizado de 6 meses
Consenso dos analistas: compre
De acordo com os dados do TradingView, a Baker Hughes é classificada como Strong Buy. Com base em 25 analistas que forneceram classificações nos últimos três meses, 16 classificaram a ação como Compra Forte, 3 a classificaram como Compra, 4 a classificaram como Manter, 1 a classificou como Venda e 1 a classificou como Forte Venda.
No geral, o sentimento dos corretores em relação à Baker Hughes é amplamente positivo, com mais de três quartos dos analistas de cobertura classificando as ações como Strong Buy ou Buy, enquanto a maioria do restante estava em espera. Essa visão solidária dos analistas parece refletir a exposição da BKR aos serviços tradicionais de campos petrolíferos e aos mercados mais amplos de energia e tecnologia industrial, incluindo a infraestrutura de GNL.
5. Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS)
A Woodside Energy apresenta à lista um produtor com sede na Austrália com exposição significativa aos mercados de GNL e petróleo. Seus lucros estão intimamente ligados aos preços realizados das commodities, o que torna as ações sensíveis às mudanças nos preços do petróleo bruto e do gás, bem como à demanda global de energia mais ampla.
Em comparação com alguns dos maiores nomes de energia dos EUA, o sentimento dos corretores em relação à Woodside parece mais moderado. Os investidores estão equilibrando a exposição global da empresa ao GNL e a alavancagem para preços de energia mais fortes contra preços mais baixos realizados recentemente, riscos de projeto e execução e pressões regulatórias e de descarbonização de longo prazo.
Consenso dos analistas: aguarde
De acordo com os dados do TradingView, a Woodside é classificada como Neutro/Hold. Dos 15 analistas, 2 a classificam como Strong Buy, 4 a classificam como Buy, 7 a classificam como Hold, 1 a classifica como Sell e 1 a classifica como Strong Sell.
O preço-alvo médio de 12 meses é de A $29,20 versus um preço atual de cerca de A $30,28, o que implica uma queda de aproximadamente 3,6%. Em relação aos maiores nomes de energia dos EUA nesta lista, isso aponta para uma visão mais cautelosa do corretor.
6. Operadores globais de petroleiros
As empresas petroleiras podem se beneficiar quando preços mais firmes do petróleo, mudanças na política da OPEP+ e tensão geopolítica aumentam os embarques de longa distância e interrompem as rotas comerciais usuais. Quando os volumes de petróleo aumentam, a demanda de “toneladas-milha” pode suportar as tarifas diárias e a lucratividade dos petroleiros, mesmo quando o mercado de energia em geral é volátil.
Consenso dos analistas: N/A
Essa é uma categoria mais ampla do setor, em vez de uma única ação negociada publicamente, portanto, não há um consenso único de corretor a ser citado. As opiniões dos analistas precisariam ser avaliadas no nível da empresa, como Frontline plc (FRO), Euronav (EURN) ou Scorpio Tankers (STNG).
De forma mais ampla, o setor é cíclico. Qualquer benefício de mercados de transporte marítimo mais apertados pode ser revertido se as rotas se normalizarem, as taxas de frete caírem ou a oferta aumentar.
Riscos e restrições
Os preços mais altos do petróleo não eliminam o risco desses nomes.
- Se os preços subirem muito, muito rápido, a destruição da demanda e as respostas políticas podem pesar sobre os lucros futuros.
- Decisões políticas da OPEP+ ou de outros grandes produtores podem reverter uma alta aumentando a oferta.
- As empresas de serviços e petroleiros são altamente cíclicas. Quando o ciclo muda, o poder de precificação pode diminuir rapidamente.
- Questões específicas da empresa, incluindo execução de projetos, preços realizados e gastos de capital, ainda são importantes.
Juntos, esses nomes podem se beneficiar de preços mais firmes do petróleo, mas também acarretam riscos setoriais, geopolíticos e de nível empresarial que merecem muita atenção.
Principais observações do mercado
- A Woodside fornece exposição a GNL e petróleo, embora o sentimento atual dos corretores seja mais neutro do que o dos grandes nomes dos EUA.
- Os operadores de petroleiros podem se beneficiar quando os mercados de frete se estreitam, embora esse comércio permaneça altamente cíclico e dependente da rota.
- A SLB e a Baker Hughes podem se beneficiar se preços mais firmes do petróleo se traduzirem em mais atividades de perfuração e conclusão, mas a resposta do preço das ações tem sido mista.
- A Exxon Mobil e a Chevron oferecem exposição direta a margens upstream mais fortes, apoiadas por operações diversificadas.
As referências neste artigo à Exxon Mobil, Chevron, SLB, Baker Hughes, Woodside, operadores de petroleiros, classificações consensuais de analistas e metas de preço estão incluídas apenas para comentários gerais do mercado e não constituem uma recomendação ou oferta em relação a qualquer produto financeiro ou título. Dados de terceiros, incluindo classificações de consenso e preços-alvo, podem mudar sem aviso prévio e não devem ser considerados isoladamente. As exposições à energia e ao transporte marítimo são cíclicas e podem ser materialmente afetadas pela volatilidade dos preços das commodities, preços realizados, mudanças na produção, execução de projetos, interrupções geopolíticas, condições do mercado de frete, desenvolvimentos regulatórios e mudanças no sentimento dos investidores. Qualquer opinião sobre os potenciais beneficiários dos preços mais altos do petróleo está sujeita a incertezas significativas.
In the wake of the global financial crisis, the G20 summit has become a popular forum of global governance and cooperation. In the heat of the disaster, G20 members came together to sustain global financial stability. The G20 has been a useful pool of information and decision making that have steered the global financial markets since 2008.
G7 Summit The Group of Seven consists of the most industrialised and advanced countries in the world representing 58% of global net worth and 30% of the world’s economy. The G7 Summit focuses on the broader array of economic and political challenges. G20 Summit The financial crisis in 2008 recognize the era where countries need to seek more cooperation among themselves to promote a sound global financial system.
Therefore, the G20 is primarily dedicated to international economic cooperation and allows China, India and other emerging nations to take a more significant global role. It acknowledges the shift towards emerging economies. G20 accounts for 84% of global investment and 63% of the world’s population.
Argentina has set “Building Consensus for fair and sustainable development” as the slogan for the leaders’ summit this year concentrating on three key priorities “ the future of work, infrastructure for development and food security. ” However, protectionism measures have been the main talks ahead of the summit. In the meeting in Bali earlier this year, all the members agreed that heightened trade and geopolitical tensions are among the most critical downside risks in the short and medium term. The G20 summit is, therefore, the “Golden Opportunity” for Trump and other leaders to engage in trade talks.
Face- to face meetings might be better to ease trade frictions. As of writing, news that China has outlined a series of trade concessions are emerging. Hence, investors are optimistic that the G20 meeting might bring more positive news than anticipated couple of weeks before given that the US-China decided to restart trade negotiations.
The Summit has the potential to move the financial markets, and any headlines will likely go under intense scrutiny. Mark Your Calendar – 30 November – 01 December!! *Follow us on Twitter for more updates regarding the upcoming G20 summit
Fundamental Analysis: Macro Factors The rapidly growing global interconnectedness means that the health of one country's economy can impact the world markets. As a result, traders generally follow the economic calendar to ensure that they do not miss out on any relevant indicators that may signal a move in the financial markets. In this article, we are going to review some major macroeconomic factors.
Economic Growth It is essential to understand how an economy grows to recognize the current economic environment in which an individual is investing and to predict how the market will move. In broad terms, economic growth is mainly driven by: Consumer Spending Business Investment Economic Growth is widely measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) which is defined as the total value of goods and services provided in a country during one year. If the health of the economy is robust, individuals and investors feel confident about the economy, which will likely boost consumer spending and business investment.
If the economy is weak, individuals would most probably save rather than spending to prepare for difficult situations. Similarly, investors will be more cautious and show some reluctance in investing in riskier assets. They will also likely seek safety with safe-haven assets.
Recently, we saw that as and when economic indicators fueled the fears of a global economic slowdown, investors seek safety with gold or other safe-havens. Employment Another significant economic data release is the Labour report. Every month, investors look at the three main components of the employment report to gauge the strength of the economy: Jobs creation: The number of new jobs created helps to assess whether the economy is growing.
Generally, a large number of new jobs is positive and is a sign that the economy is flourishing. When the numbers begin to fall, it can signal a slowing economy. Unemployment rate: Rather than the actual monthly figure, analysts normally will observe the trend in the rate to see if the labour market is contracting or expanding.
Unemployment rate helps to determine the inflationary and interest rate expectations. For example, any figure below the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) level will force the markets to begin to factor in a higher inflation rate. Wage Growth: Wages are the biggest indicator of consumer spending but do also have a flipside.
It can be a significant cost for a business, but it is also a source of spending and consequently means revenue and profit for a business. Even though analysing its effect on the economy can be complexed, traders tend to monitor wage growth to gauge future interest rate expectations. Inflation Inflation is an important economic concept.
It is a sustained rise in overall price levels. For trading purposes, we will try to keep it simple. The rate of inflation is important as it depicts the rate at which the real value of an investment is eroded and the loss in spending or purchasing power over time.
High inflation normally signals that the economy is overheating, while moderate inflation is often associated with economic growth as it means businesses and consumers are spending more money on goods and services. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) are the most followed indicators aside from other inflationary pressures widely monitored by traders. Interest Rates Interest rates can have a rippling effect on the economy, which is why investors generally focused on forecasting any changes in interest rate to make better financial decisions.
Any changes in interest rate can cause an immediate reaction in the financial markets even though it may take time to see the actual effects on the economy. To understand the various economic impacts, we will analyze the effects of raising interest rates in relation to consumer spending and investment. Higher interest rates mean: Higher borrowing costs Higher mortgage repayments More incentive to save than to spend Reduced consumer and business confidence.
Both consumers and investors are less willing to spend and invest in riskier assets. All in all, a rise in interest rate will reduce consumer spending and investment. Inflation and economic growth will, therefore, tend to be lower.
Hence, central banks will use the interest rate as a tool to curb or boost inflation to reach the desired level of economic growth. Investors are keen to monitor and analyze economic indicators to foresee the next move by Central banks as any changes in interest rate can create investment opportunities.
President Trump is on the “Tweet Rally” with positive headlines on the trade front and much confidence ahead of the Summit in Hanoi, Vietnam. Singapore Summit The Singapore Summit marked the first-ever meeting between the Head of State of North Korea and the United States. Both leaders signed a joint statement during the Summit and agreed on: Security guarantees New peaceful relations The denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula The recovery of the American soldiers The first meeting was “big” on the geopolitical front and made history, but the Summit delivered little on the specifics or concrete details on a roadmap to complete denuclearisation.
After a wild 2017 whereby a series of new missile was tested, North Korea undertook a few significant steps: No ballistic missiles or nuclear weapons Blown up the entrances to its atomic test site Hanoi Summit The relationship between both countries has undergone a dramatic turnaround, and there were probably more diplomatic communications than before: “If I were not elected president, you would have been in a war with North Korea,” Trump said last week. “We now have a situation where the relationships are good — where there has been no nuclear testing, no missiles, no rockets.” However, the expectations around the second meeting are relatively low compared to last year. The months that followed the Summit provided little optimism that there will be complete denuclearisation. Washington wants more concrete steps from Pyongyang while North Korea demanded the US to take more corresponding measures.
Bearing in mind that 2020 elections are looming, President Trump is under pressure to produce a concrete roadmap to denuclearisation. A lack of major breakthrough could have some negative political ramifications for President Trump. We saw a softer stance by the US President in the run-up to the Summit: "I don't want to rush anybody.
I just don't want testing. As long as there's no testing, we're happy." The President also hinted that North Korea has the potential to become an “economic powerhouse”. Does the vast majority of investors think the same?
How much of their nuclear weapons is North Korea willing to give up for fresh economic investment?
In the month of May, major currencies were stronger against the US dollar as risk sentiment improved and haven currencies like the US dollar, the Yen and Swiss franc have lost momentum. Commodity-linked currencies were among the best performers against the US dollar; lifted by higher commodity prices. Source: Bloomberg The US Dollar As geopolitical tensions continue to rip through markets, protests following the death of Mr George Floyd is spreading nationwide and overshadowing the reopening of states and raising fears of new waves of coronavirus outbreaks, the US dollar might struggle to rebound.
The US dollar index which tracks the performance of a basket of currencies against the greenback is back to levels seen mid-March. US Dollar Index Source: Bloomberg The Antipodeans Australia and New Zealand were able to better contain the spread of the virus and have eased lockdown measures quicker compared to their peers. Both the AUDUSD and NZDUSD pairs are back to trading in the familiar levels seen before the sharp plunge linked to the coronavirus jitters.
However, the US-China tussle is keeping a lid on gains and at those levels, traders will likely await for fresh positive catalysts to push the pairs higher. AUDUSD and NZDUSD (Daily Chart) Source: GO MT4 Australia seems to have gone through the worst of the pandemic and the lockdown measures are slowly easing across the country. While the national health outcomes were better than feared, the reopening of the economy is also happening faster than initially anticipated.
After the Australian Treasury announced the $60 billion accounting error, investors were reassured that the Australian economy was not as severely impacted as initially forecasted. The coordinated monetary and fiscal measures have helped the RBA and the government to provide assistance to households and businesses. The Bank taped into quantitative easing (QE) mid-March for the first time in history and purchased $50 billion of Australian Government Securities (AGS) and semi-government securities (semis).
Given that the measures put in place are working as broadly as expected, the RBA has even started to scale back daily market open operations. Unlike some major central banks, the RBA has also ruled out negative interest rates. Based on the current developments and the prospects of a quicker recovery, the RBA is widely expected to remain on hold on Tuesday and to maintain a less-dovish tone compared to its peers recently.
The recent Governor Philip Lowe’s speech before the Senate Select Committee was also broadly positive about the economy and its recovery. The Aussie dollar may have some room for upside momentum if the Bank maintains its optimistic tone. Other notable events to watch are the GDP numbers and Retail Sales figures on Wednesday and Thursday.
In New Zealand, the economic calendar is relatively subdued for the week. There are enough positive developments to help the Aussie dollar and Kiwi to hold on to gains. However, the Antipodeans may struggle to push the rally seen recently further as US-China risks loom.
The Euro The downside risks for the Eurozone have eased which has helped the Euro to advance higher, but the shared currency was unable to benefit fully from the overall risk-on sentiment and the weakness of the US dollar dragged by the political dynamics within the Eurozone. On the economic calendar, the focus will be on the ECB. Interest rates are not expected to shift, but attention will be on the central bank’s decision to expand the QE program.
Following recent comments from policymakers, market participants are widely expecting more easing next Thursday with an expansion of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) by EUR500 bn. The impact on the shared currency would likely depend on the extent the ECB will go to support the eurozone economy. Until geopolitical risks recede and there is a compromise on the EU recovery plan, the EURUSD pair may struggle to firm outside its current range and significantly above the 1.10 level.
EURUSD (Daily Chart) Source: GO MT4 The Pound The Sterling Pound was the worst performer against the US dollar in May and will likely remain under pressure dragged by Brexit uncertainties. The negotiations have stalled and as the deadline for extending the transition period is coming closer, traders are finding little positive narratives to rule out a no-deal Brexit. All eyes are on the resumption of Brexit negotiations this week.
As of writing, the GBPUSD pair is trading just below the 1.24 level - buoyed mainly by the broad weakness in the US dollar. GBPUSD (Daily Chart) Source: GO MT4
Fed in Focus - US Repo and Funds Rate During the week, it was all about the Repo market. A Repurchase Agreement known as Repo is a form of short-term borrowing for dealers in government securities. The Repo market plays a key role in supporting liquidity in the financial markets.
It facilitates the flow of cash and securities around the financial system which benefits both the financial and non-financial firms. Repo Market Explained In simple words, the Repo market consists of one party lending out cash in exchange for an equivalent value of securities to another party. The Borrower will, therefore, pay a fee to the Lender.
The securities being sold, which is often the Treasury notes are the collateral. Such transactions allow companies that own lots of securities but are short of cash to cheaply borrow money from parties that own lots of cash. As the collateral are government bonds, the risks are generally low.
US Borrowing Costs So ared On Tuesday, the Repo rate soared to record levels above 8% which is more than four times the normal rate. Even though the money market experienced a significant outflow on Friday ahead of the tax deadline, the sharp increase stunned investors and created fears of the abrupt tightening of the US money markets. There was another alarming signal as the surge in the Repo rate caused the average funds rate to rise to the upper end of the Fed’s current target range.
The Fed quickly intervened with a move it has not used in more than a decade and injected billions of dollars in the financial system to calm money markets. The move succeeded in bringing some relief and allowed the Repo rate to drop. The Fed further reassured market participants that it is willing to spend another $75 billion on Wednesday.
Bad Timing At a time where there are deep disagreements within the Federal Reserve over the path of interest rate outlook, the chaos in the repo markets complicated matters. Investors have priced-in a 25-basis point rate cut, but are uncertain about the future “dot plot”. The manufacturing sector is slowing, and trade tensions continue to overshadow the financial markets.
However, the consumer-orientated parts of the economy are holding up. Consumers remain one of the bright spots – Personal Consumption grew at a healthy pace in July. The employment sector also remains strong.
Hawkish Rate Cut This meeting will help traders to gauge how policymakers are assessing the recent economic data and the trade tariffs developments. There have been some sorts of a rethink in the markets regarding further easing. Do the current economic conditions justify more rate cuts?
At this stage, the economic data does not fully justify the second-rate cut, but the Fed will likely proceed with the cut as insurance against slowing growth due to external factors rather than a slowing domestic economy. Irrespective of how the Fed conveys its monetary outlook, the Fed is set to trigger high volatility!
Federal Budget - "Back in the Black" "Returning the budget to surplus, delivering more jobs, providing lower taxes, guaranteeing essential services." We are in the election year, and the government needed a budget that will please voters. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg delivered his first federal budget and conveyed his plans for a stronger economy. The two dominant headlines surrounding the budget are: “Budget in Black, Australia back on track” & “A Tax System that rewards effort and underpins a strong economy” Returning the Budget to Surplus Despite downgrades to domestic economic forecasts and heightened global growth concerns, the Treasurer announced the first budget surplus of $7.1 billion in 2019-20 in over a decade.
However, the budget surplus does not come without a catch. It is conditional upon the Coalition winning the election. The Budget Surplus is also based on optimistic economic forecasts, and if the rosy predictions are softer than expected, the actual revenue flows will be undermined and the surplus will not materialise.
It should be highlighted that the outcome of the 2019-2020 budget will not be known until September 2020, and Australia is facing a softening economy which can make “Budget in Black, Australia back on track” challenging to achieve: The housing sector remains a concern Weak Wage growth persists Retail Sales is sluggish Global Growth is slowing Tax Cuts The Australian Government is keen to build a simpler and more competitive tax system for the hard-working taxpayers and small businesses. There are three main themes to consider in the Government’s plans to build a better tax system: Lower taxes for hard-working Australians Immediate tax relief of up to $1,080 for singles or up to $2,160 for dual income families of low-and-middle-income earners to ease the cost of living. Lowering the 32.5 per cent rate to 30 per cent in 2024-25 Source: www.budget.gov.au From 2018-19, the Government will provide immediate tax relief for the low- and middle-income earners and larger tax benefits will be mapped out over the next couple of years through the Government’s enhanced plan should the Coalition party win the election.
Source: abc.net.au As from 2024-25, the Government will adopt further structural changes to the tax system and improve incentives for working Australians to rewards efforts. Source: www.budget.gov.au Backing small business The Government will be lowering the small business tax rate and will also increase and expand access to the instant asset write-off: “ Increasing the instant asset write-off threshold to $30,000 and expanding access to medium ‑ sized businesses with an annual turnover of less than $50 million to help them reinvest in their business, employ more workers and grow. Around 3.4 million businesses will be eligible to benefit.
Fast-tracking the company tax rate cut to 25 per cent for small and medium ‑ sized companies with an annual turnover of less than $50 million and increases to the unincorporated small business tax discount rate. ” Making Multinationals and big business pay their fair share The Government also want to make multinationals and big business pay their fair share. “$ 12.9 billion in tax liabilities raised from tax compliance activities since July 2016. New funding for the ATO to target tax avoidance by multinationals, big business and high‑wealth individuals.” The reaction following the release of the budget in the financial markets was subdued. The Reserve Bank of Australia was the main event that moved the AUD pairs yesterday.
Trade balance, and Retal Sales figures came in better than expected this morning and helped the Australian dollar to pare the losses made yesterday after Governor Lowe’s Rate Statement. AUDUSD (Hourly Chart) Source: GO MT4