16 th August 2017 marked the beginning of renegotiations between the United States, Canada and Mexico on the North American Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The leaders from each country will meet up over the next few months to begin discussions on the agreement which has been in place since 1994. American view The United States have got a tough stance on the agreement believing it to be more beneficial for Canada and Mexico.
The United States trade representative, Robert Lighthizer reiterated Donald Trump’s critisisim of the agreement ‘‘We feel that NAFTA has fundamentally failed many, many Americans and needs major improvement’’ He said in the opening statement which reflected criticism that blames the NAFTA agreement for a direct loss of around 700,000 US manufacturing jobs since it was put in place. Some of the objectives the of US negotiators include: Improve the U.S. trade balance and reduce the trade deficit with the NAFTA countries Maintain existing reciprocal duty-free market access for industrial goods and strengthen disciplines to address non-tariff barriers that constrain U.S. exports to NAFTA countries Maintain existing duty-free access to NAFTA country markets for U.S. textile and apparel products and seek to improve competitive opportunities for exports of U.S. textile and apparel products while considering U.S. import sensitivities Promote greater regulatory compatibility with respect to key goods sectors to reduce burdens associated with unnecessary differences in regulation, including through regulatory cooperation where appropriate Increase transparency by ensuring that all customs laws, regulations, and procedures are published on the Internet as well as designating points of contact for questions from traders Canadian view Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister, Chrystia Freeland has said she hopes that all three countries can keep what is good about the current NAFTA agreement, while using the negotiation process to make the current agreement more modern At the start of the negotiations, Freeland said ‘‘We pursue trade, free and fair, knowing it is not a zero-sum game’’. She also added that Canada is the United States’ biggest client and that Canada buys more from United States than China, Japan and the United Kingdom combined.
Canada’s objectives include: A new chapter on labour standards A new chapter on environmental standards Expanding procurement Freer movement of professionals Protect Canada’s supply-management system for dairy and poultry Mexican View Mexico’s Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo said that the main challenge of the negotiation process will be to find any common ground between the three sides. ‘‘The process that begins today is not about going back to the past. For a deal to be successful it has to work for all parties. Otherwise it is not a deal’’.
Mexico’s top objectives include: Foster more inclusive regional trade Update energy, digital and telecommunications provisions Strengthen North American competitiveness Maintain agriculture access All three parties have their views on how the NAFTA agreement should look like moving forward, however there is currently no timeframe of when the negotiations will end.All parties will hope they can reach an agreement as soon as possible, especially with Mexico elections taking place in July 2018. By: Klavs Valters GO Markets
By
GO Markets
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ความผันผวนทางภูมิศาสตร์ได้ผลักดันให้นักลงทุนประเมินตำแหน่งที่รุนแรงการเติบโตอีกครั้งการสร้างโครงสร้างพื้นฐาน AI มูลค่า 650 พันล้านดอลลาร์สหรัฐยังอยู่ภายใต้การตรวจสอบผลตอบแทนจากการลงทุนอย่างเข้มงวดเช่นกันหากฤดูกาลรายได้ทำให้ผิดหวังในด้านนั้น และหาก FOMC ส่งสัญญาณว่าจะหยุดยั้งเป็นเวลานาน การรวมกันอาจทดสอบความอยากความเสี่ยงในเดือนพฤษภาคม
Monitor this month (AEST)
◆
14 April - JPMorgan Chase Q1 earnings
The first major bank to report. Management commentary on credit conditions, consumer spending, and the macro outlook will set the tone for financial sector earnings and broader market sentiment.
◆
15 April - Bank of America Q1 earnings
A read on consumer credit conditions and household financial health, particularly relevant given rising energy costs and the 4.4% unemployment rate.
◆
28-29 April - FOMC meeting and policy statement
The month's most consequential event. The statement and any updated forward guidance may effectively confirm whether rate cuts remain a possibility for 2026.
◆
Ongoing - Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic
A live indicator of energy supply risk. Any escalation or resolution carries immediate implications for oil prices, inflation expectations, and the Fed's options.
◆
Ongoing - Sovereign AI export restrictions
Developing policy around technology export curbs may affect capital expenditure plans for US technology firms, with knock-on implications for growth and employment in the sector.
The Bigger Picture
Geopolitical volatility has forced a rotation into energy and defence at the expense of growth oriented technology positions. The estimated US$650 billion AI infrastructure buildout is increasingly being scrutinised for returns on investment. If earnings season disappoints on that front, and if the FOMC signals a prolonged hold, the combination could test risk appetite heading into May.
APAC Sections — GO Markets (Webflow embed snippets)
Key dates (AEST)
13
Apr
M2 money supply and new yuan loans
People's Bank of China
Medium
14
Apr
March balance of trade
General Administration of Customs
High
16
Apr
Q1 GDP and March industrial production
National Bureau of Statistics
High
What markets look for
Evidence of technology-driven industrial production growth consistent with Five-Year Plan priorities
March export resilience in the face of shifting global tariff frameworks
Signs of stabilisation in domestic consumer retail sales
Any implementation detail on the "new-type national system" for AI development
Why it matters for the region
China's shift toward high-value manufacturing and AI self-sufficiency could reshape regional supply chains and influence demand for commodities. A stronger-than-expected trade surplus may support broader regional sentiment, although higher energy costs can pressure margins for Chinese exporters and weigh on import demand. The 16 April GDP release carries the most weight as the first quarterly read on whether the 4.5%-5.0% target is tracking.
Statistics Bureau of Japan · Lead indicator for national trends (AEDT)
Medium
27–28
Apr
BOJ monetary policy meeting and outlook report
Bank of Japan · Live event for rate hike watch (AEST)
High
What markets look for
BOJ guidance on the timing of potential rate increases
March Tokyo CPI data as a lead indicator for national price trends
Updated inflation forecasts in the quarterly outlook report
Official comments on yen volatility and any reference to intervention thresholds
Why it matters
The BOJ remains a global outlier, with its short-term policy rate held at 0.75% after the March meeting, and any hawkish shift could trigger sharp moves in forex pairs involving the yen. Markets are weighing whether the BOJ can tighten policy while the government simultaneously resumes energy subsidies to shield households from rising oil costs. These competing pressures make the April meeting and outlook report unusually informative.
Whether Q1 underlying inflation remains above the RBA's 2%-3% target band
Labour market resilience in the face of rising borrowing costs
The pass-through of global energy prices into domestic transport and logistics costs
RBA minutes (31 March) for any signal of internal policy disagreement
Why it matters
The 29 April CPI release may be the most consequential domestic data point before the RBA's May meeting. If inflation proves sticky or accelerates due to global energy shocks, the probability of a further rate increase could rise, with implications for both the Australian dollar and volatility across the ASX 200. The PPI reading the following day may also provide early signal on whether producer-level cost pressures are building in the pipeline.
Regional themes
◆
ASEAN demand signals
March trade data from Singapore and Malaysia may indicate whether regional electronics demand is holding up amid global uncertainty.
◆
India growth trajectory
Elevated energy costs could weigh on India's 2026 expansion plans, particularly following the New Delhi AI summit and associated infrastructure commitments.
◆
Commodity sentiment
Iron ore and thermal coal prices remain sensitive to signals from China's industrial policy and the pace at which Five-Year Plan priorities translate into actual demand.
◆
Currency pressure
Energy-importing economies across Asia and Europe may face sustained currency headwinds if Brent crude holds above US$100 for an extended period.
Safe-haven demand:
The Iran conflict directed flows into US assets across equities, Treasuries, and the dollar itself.
Yield advantage:
The federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% provides a meaningful return floor relative to most peers, helping to sustain capital inflows.
Energy insulation:
The US position as an oil exporter creates a structural terms-of-trade benefit when oil prices rise sharply.
Rate cut repricing:
Market expectations for 2026 Fed cuts have been scaled back significantly, removing a key source of dollar headwinds.
What markets are watching next
The DXY's ability to hold above 100 is the near-term reference point. The 10 April CPI print is the most direct test. A reading above expectations may add further support, while a soft print could give traders reason to take some dollar positions off the table.
The main risks to the upside case are a sudden diplomatic resolution in the Middle East, which could reduce safe-haven demand quickly, or a labour market print on 3 April that is weak enough to revive recession concerns and push rate cut expectations higher again.
Energy import exposure:
Rising Brent crude hits New Zealand's trade balance directly and adds upside pressure to domestic inflation.
Yield gap:
The 2.25% Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy rate sits below the Fed and the RBA, sustaining negative carry against both the USD and AUD.
Risk-off positioning:
As a commodity and risk currency, the NZD tends to underperform when global sentiment deteriorates.
Trade uncertainty:
Ongoing tariff related uncertainty continues to weigh on export sector confidence.
Risks and constraints
Any unexpected hawkish commentary from the RBNZ or a sharp decline in oil prices could provide some relief. A broader improvement in global risk appetite would also tend to benefit the NZD, given its sensitivity to sentiment shifts.
But the structural yield disadvantage is not going away quickly, and that may continue to limit the pair's recovery potential.
Tokyo CPI, 30 March (AEDT):
March inflation data. A strong read may build the case for BOJ action at the April meeting.
BOJ meeting, 27 and 28 April (AEST):
Markets are treating this as a live event. The quarterly outlook report may include updated inflation forecasts that shift rate hike timing expectations.
Intervention watch:
Japan's Ministry of Finance has been explicit about the 160 level. Actual intervention, or a credible threat of it, could trigger a sharp and fast reversal.
What could shift the outlook
A hawkish BOJ, actual FX intervention, or a softer US CPI print that reduces dollar support could all push USD/JPY lower from current levels. On the other side, a dovish hold from the BOJ combined with continued dollar strength could see the pair test 160 and potentially beyond, which would likely intensify the intervention conversation in Tokyo.
For traders watching AUD/JPY and other yen crosses, the BOJ meeting on 27 and 28 April carries similar weight. A hawkish shift tends to compress yen crosses broadly, not just USD/JPY.
ข้อมูลที่จะดูต่อไป
อีเวนต์สี่อย่างโดดเด่นในฐานะตัวเร่งปฏิกิริยา FX ที่มีศักยภาพที่ชัดเจนที่สุดในสัปดาห์ข้างหน้าแต่ละช่องมีช่องทางส่งโดยตรงเข้ากับความคาดหวังอัตราและความคาดหวังของอัตราจะผลักดันการเคลื่อนไหวมากใน FX ในตอนนี้
Key dates and FX sensitivity
30
Mar
Tokyo CPI
JPY pairs, USD/JPY · AEDT
A strong read may strengthen the case for a more hawkish BOJ at the April meeting.
3
Apr
US labour market (NFP)
USD pairs, AUD/USD, NZD/USD · 10:30 pm AEDT
A weak result could revive recession concerns and alter Fed pricing.
10
Apr
US CPI - March
USD/JPY, EUR/USD, gold · 10:30 pm AEST
The most direct test of whether inflation is easing fast enough to reopen the rate cut conversation.
27-28
Apr
BOJ meeting and quarterly outlook report
JPY crosses, AUD/JPY · AEST
The key policy event for yen crosses. Updated inflation forecasts may shift rate hike timing expectations.
A psychologically and technically significant support level. Holding above it may sustain the dollar's current run across major pairs. A break below it would likely signal a broader sentiment shift.
◆
USD/JPY 160.00
Japan's Ministry of Finance has consistently referenced this level as a threshold requiring attention. Actual intervention, or a credible threat of it, has historically been capable of producing sharp and fast reversals in the pair.
◆
Brent crude US$120
A move to this level would likely intensify risk off behaviour across FX markets, putting further pressure on energy importing currencies including the NZD, EUR, and JPY.
◆
AUD/USD 0.7000
This level has historically attracted buying interest and may act as a near term directional reference for positioning in the pair.
Bottom line
The FX moves heading into April were shaped by a combination of geopolitical shock, yield divergence, and a repricing of central bank expectations that few had positioned for at the start of the quarter. The dollar's dual role as a high yielding and safe haven currency has put it in an unusually strong position, but that position is not unconditional.
One soft CPI print, one diplomatic breakthrough, or one labour market miss could change the tone quickly. Currency moves may remain highly data dependent and sensitive to overnight news flow from the Middle East, where developments can gap markets before the next session opens.
เข้าถึงจักรวาล FX ที่กว้างขึ้นและยืดหยุ่นเมื่อเงื่อนไขเปลี่ยนแปลง เปิดบัญชี · เข้าสู่ระบบ
ความผันผวนทางภูมิศาสตร์ได้ผลักดันให้นักลงทุนประเมินตำแหน่งที่รุนแรงการเติบโตอีกครั้งการสร้างโครงสร้างพื้นฐาน AI มูลค่า 650 พันล้านดอลลาร์สหรัฐยังอยู่ภายใต้การตรวจสอบผลตอบแทนจากการลงทุนอย่างเข้มงวดเช่นกันหากฤดูกาลรายได้ทำให้ผิดหวังในด้านนั้น และหาก FOMC ส่งสัญญาณว่าจะหยุดยั้งเป็นเวลานาน การรวมกันอาจทดสอบความอยากความเสี่ยงในเดือนพฤษภาคม
Monitor this month (AEST)
◆
14 April - JPMorgan Chase Q1 earnings
The first major bank to report. Management commentary on credit conditions, consumer spending, and the macro outlook will set the tone for financial sector earnings and broader market sentiment.
◆
15 April - Bank of America Q1 earnings
A read on consumer credit conditions and household financial health, particularly relevant given rising energy costs and the 4.4% unemployment rate.
◆
28-29 April - FOMC meeting and policy statement
The month's most consequential event. The statement and any updated forward guidance may effectively confirm whether rate cuts remain a possibility for 2026.
◆
Ongoing - Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic
A live indicator of energy supply risk. Any escalation or resolution carries immediate implications for oil prices, inflation expectations, and the Fed's options.
◆
Ongoing - Sovereign AI export restrictions
Developing policy around technology export curbs may affect capital expenditure plans for US technology firms, with knock-on implications for growth and employment in the sector.
The Bigger Picture
Geopolitical volatility has forced a rotation into energy and defence at the expense of growth oriented technology positions. The estimated US$650 billion AI infrastructure buildout is increasingly being scrutinised for returns on investment. If earnings season disappoints on that front, and if the FOMC signals a prolonged hold, the combination could test risk appetite heading into May.
APAC Sections — GO Markets (Webflow embed snippets)
Key dates (AEST)
13
Apr
M2 money supply and new yuan loans
People's Bank of China
Medium
14
Apr
March balance of trade
General Administration of Customs
High
16
Apr
Q1 GDP and March industrial production
National Bureau of Statistics
High
What markets look for
Evidence of technology-driven industrial production growth consistent with Five-Year Plan priorities
March export resilience in the face of shifting global tariff frameworks
Signs of stabilisation in domestic consumer retail sales
Any implementation detail on the "new-type national system" for AI development
Why it matters for the region
China's shift toward high-value manufacturing and AI self-sufficiency could reshape regional supply chains and influence demand for commodities. A stronger-than-expected trade surplus may support broader regional sentiment, although higher energy costs can pressure margins for Chinese exporters and weigh on import demand. The 16 April GDP release carries the most weight as the first quarterly read on whether the 4.5%-5.0% target is tracking.
Statistics Bureau of Japan · Lead indicator for national trends (AEDT)
Medium
27–28
Apr
BOJ monetary policy meeting and outlook report
Bank of Japan · Live event for rate hike watch (AEST)
High
What markets look for
BOJ guidance on the timing of potential rate increases
March Tokyo CPI data as a lead indicator for national price trends
Updated inflation forecasts in the quarterly outlook report
Official comments on yen volatility and any reference to intervention thresholds
Why it matters
The BOJ remains a global outlier, with its short-term policy rate held at 0.75% after the March meeting, and any hawkish shift could trigger sharp moves in forex pairs involving the yen. Markets are weighing whether the BOJ can tighten policy while the government simultaneously resumes energy subsidies to shield households from rising oil costs. These competing pressures make the April meeting and outlook report unusually informative.
Whether Q1 underlying inflation remains above the RBA's 2%-3% target band
Labour market resilience in the face of rising borrowing costs
The pass-through of global energy prices into domestic transport and logistics costs
RBA minutes (31 March) for any signal of internal policy disagreement
Why it matters
The 29 April CPI release may be the most consequential domestic data point before the RBA's May meeting. If inflation proves sticky or accelerates due to global energy shocks, the probability of a further rate increase could rise, with implications for both the Australian dollar and volatility across the ASX 200. The PPI reading the following day may also provide early signal on whether producer-level cost pressures are building in the pipeline.
Regional themes
◆
ASEAN demand signals
March trade data from Singapore and Malaysia may indicate whether regional electronics demand is holding up amid global uncertainty.
◆
India growth trajectory
Elevated energy costs could weigh on India's 2026 expansion plans, particularly following the New Delhi AI summit and associated infrastructure commitments.
◆
Commodity sentiment
Iron ore and thermal coal prices remain sensitive to signals from China's industrial policy and the pace at which Five-Year Plan priorities translate into actual demand.
◆
Currency pressure
Energy-importing economies across Asia and Europe may face sustained currency headwinds if Brent crude holds above US$100 for an extended period.