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[1] Trading Economics. (2025, October 29). Australia Q3 Inflation Rate Hits 5-Quarter High. Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/inflation-cpi
[2] Trading Economics. (2025, November 26). Australia Inflation Rate Exceeds Forecasts. Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/inflation-cpi/news/504959
[3] Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2025, November 13). Unemployment rate falls to 4.3%. Retrieved from https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/unemployment-rate-falls-43
[4] CNBC. (2025, November 9). China consumer prices return to growth in October. Retrieved from https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/09/china-october-cpi-ppi-deflation-consumer-prices-.html
[5] CNBC. (2025, October 31). China manufacturing slump deepens to 6-month low in October. Retrieved from https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/31/china-manufacturing-pmi-october-.html
[6] CNBC. (2025, November 27). China industrial profits drop 5.5% in October, worst level in five months. Retrieved from https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/27/china-industrial-profits-drop-in-october-worst-level-in-five-months-trade-uncertainty.html
[7] Reserve Bank of Australia. (2025, November 4). Monetary Policy Decision. Retrieved from https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2025/mr-25-31.html
[8] Reserve Bank of Australia. (2025, November 3). In Brief: Statement on Monetary Policy – November 2025. Retrieved from https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2025/nov/
[9] Reuters. (2025, November 26). Australia's inflation stubbornly high in October, closing door on rate cuts. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australias-inflation-picks-up-october-rate-cut-bets-fade-2025-11-26/
[10] Reuters. (2025, November 20). China leaves benchmark lending rates unchanged for the sixth straight month. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-leaves-benchmark-lending-rates-unchanged-6th-straight-month-november-2025-11-20/
[11] LYH Steel. (2025, November 20). Iron Ore Price November 2025 Holds Above $104. Retrieved from https://lyhsteel.com/iron-ore-price-november-2025-holds-above-104/
[12] Trading Economics. (2025, November 27). Copper - Price - Chart - Historical Data. Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/copper
[13] ROIC.ai. (2025, November 25). CBOE Volatility Index Drops to Near Two-Week Low as Market Fear Recedes. Retrieved from https://www.roic.ai/news/cboe-volatility-index-drops-to-near-two-week-low-as-market-fear-recedes-11-25-2025
Markets have bounced back strongly this week. The S&P 500 is now just 1.5% from record highs, and the Nasdaq is recovering well following its pullback.
Rate Cut Expectations
The main driver behind this rally was a shift in Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. Markets are currently pricing in a quarter-point rate cut for December, with only a 25% chance of another reduction in January. This week's economic data will be crucial in shaping expectations going into 2026.
Key Economic Data This Week
Several important data releases are scheduled for this week. The PCE inflation data — the Fed's preferred inflation measure — for September will finally be released on Friday and could have the biggest impact on December and January rate decisions. The ADP jobs report and weekly jobless claims will also be released, while the non-farm payrolls report has been delayed again.
Global Manufacturing Snapshot
Today also kicks off a busy week of manufacturing data releases. Global PMI numbers are due across the board, including figures from the Eurozone, UK, Germany, and the US this evening. These reports will provide a critical snapshot of global economic health and could help reveal the impact of the US trade tariffs.
Gold Breaks Higher
Gold made a significant move on Friday, breaching the key $4,200 level after consolidating last week. The precious metal has followed through today, and the $4,400 level now looks achievable if buying pressure continues.
Bitcoin Under Pressure
Bitcoin has given up last week's modest gains and seen substantial selling pressure. A significant drop of about $4,000 occurred during Asian trading this morning — a notable decline for an Asia session. The key level to watch is $84,000, with potential support at $80,000 (the lowest level since March).
Market Insights
Watch Mike Smith's analysis of the week ahead in markets.
Key Economic Events
Stay up to date with the key economic events for the week.
[1] Trading Economics. (2025, October 29). Australia Q3 Inflation Rate Hits 5-Quarter High. Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/inflation-cpi
[2] Trading Economics. (2025, November 26). Australia Inflation Rate Exceeds Forecasts. Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/inflation-cpi/news/504959
[3] Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2025, November 13). Unemployment rate falls to 4.3%. Retrieved from https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/unemployment-rate-falls-43
[4] CNBC. (2025, November 9). China consumer prices return to growth in October. Retrieved from https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/09/china-october-cpi-ppi-deflation-consumer-prices-.html
[5] CNBC. (2025, October 31). China manufacturing slump deepens to 6-month low in October. Retrieved from https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/31/china-manufacturing-pmi-october-.html
[6] CNBC. (2025, November 27). China industrial profits drop 5.5% in October, worst level in five months. Retrieved from https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/27/china-industrial-profits-drop-in-october-worst-level-in-five-months-trade-uncertainty.html
[7] Reserve Bank of Australia. (2025, November 4). Monetary Policy Decision. Retrieved from https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2025/mr-25-31.html
[8] Reserve Bank of Australia. (2025, November 3). In Brief: Statement on Monetary Policy – November 2025. Retrieved from https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2025/nov/
[9] Reuters. (2025, November 26). Australia's inflation stubbornly high in October, closing door on rate cuts. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australias-inflation-picks-up-october-rate-cut-bets-fade-2025-11-26/
[10] Reuters. (2025, November 20). China leaves benchmark lending rates unchanged for the sixth straight month. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-leaves-benchmark-lending-rates-unchanged-6th-straight-month-november-2025-11-20/
[11] LYH Steel. (2025, November 20). Iron Ore Price November 2025 Holds Above $104. Retrieved from https://lyhsteel.com/iron-ore-price-november-2025-holds-above-104/
[12] Trading Economics. (2025, November 27). Copper - Price - Chart - Historical Data. Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/copper
[13] ROIC.ai. (2025, November 25). CBOE Volatility Index Drops to Near Two-Week Low as Market Fear Recedes. Retrieved from https://www.roic.ai/news/cboe-volatility-index-drops-to-near-two-week-low-as-market-fear-recedes-11-25-2025