市場新聞與洞察
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2025年,拉丁美洲(LATAM)的加密货币交易量超过7300亿美元,同比增长60%,这使该地区约占全球加密活动的10%。
2026年,机构参与者开始认真对待该地区,监管正在具体化,2025年以来的结构性驱动因素没有减弱的迹象。但是该地区不是一个单一的故事,2026年将考验当前的势头是建立在坚实的基本面还是投机乐观情绪之上。
事实速览
- 拉丁美洲每月活跃的加密用户同比增长18%,是美国的三倍。
- 阿根廷的月活跃用户渗透率达到12%,占该地区加密活动的四分之一以上。
- 现在,超过90%的巴西加密货币流量与稳定币有关。
- 三个拉美国家进入全球前20名:巴西(第5位)、委内瑞拉(第18位)、阿根廷(第20位)。
- 秘鲁的加密应用程序下载量在2025年增长了50%,下载量为290万次。

从生存工具到金融基础设施
由于投机,拉丁美洲没有接受加密货币。它之所以接受它,是因为传统的金融体系一再让普通百姓失望。在过去的15年中,该地区五个最大经济体的平均年通货膨胀率为13%,而同期美国的平均年通货膨胀率仅为2.3%。
在委内瑞拉,这一比例在一年内达到了65,000%。在阿根廷,这一比例在2024年超过了220%。对于数百万人来说,以当地货币持有储蓄是一种缓慢的自我毁灭行为。稳定币成为了自然的反应。与美元挂钩的数字资产提供了可靠的价值储存、无国界的转移性以及无需银行账户即可访问。
与西方不同,在西方,加密货币更多地被视为一种投机工具,而在拉丁美洲,它已成为一种必要的金融工具。但是,该地区的采用驱动因素并不完全统一。巴西和墨西哥是机构故事,受监管的市场参与和成熟的金融参与者的推动。
阿根廷和委内瑞拉仍然是保值游戏,加密货币是抵御法币崩盘的直接对冲工具。秘鲁和哥伦比亚是更追求收益的市场,加密货币提供的回报是传统储蓄账户无法比拟的。

拉美采用加密货币的速度有多快?
2025年,拉美的链上加密货币交易量同比增长了60%。自2022年年中以来,该地区的累计交易量已达到近1.5万亿美元,在2024年12月达到创纪录的单月877亿美元的峰值。
2025年,拉丁美洲的月活跃加密用户也增长了18%,是美国的三倍。
稳定币是推动这种采用的主要工具。在2025年收到的7,300亿美元中,有3,240亿美元是通过稳定币交易转移的,同比增长89%。在巴西,超过90%的加密货币流量与稳定币相关,而在阿根廷,稳定币占活动的60%以上。
展望未来,根据IMARC集团的数据,到2033年,拉丁美洲的加密货币市场预计将达到4426亿美元,从2025年起将以10.93%的复合年增长率增长。
对于交易者而言,采用速度与其说是头条新闻,不如说是推动采用速度的原因:该地区有6.5亿人以稳定币为基础,实时建设平行金融基础设施。
机构转向
在拉美的大部分加密历史中,采用率是自下而上的。没有银行账户或银行账户不足的零售用户通过本地交易所推动了交易量。现在,高端市场的这种情况正在发生变化。
2026年2月,全球领先交易所运营商德意志交易所集团旗下的Crypto Finance集团宣布向拉丁美洲扩张,目标是寻求机构级托管和交易基础设施的银行、资产管理公司和金融中介机构。
传统银行和金融科技公司纷纷效仿。Nubank现在奖励持有USDC的客户。巴西的B3交易所于2025年批准了世界上第一只现货XRP和SOL ETF,领先于美国。自2024年初以来,包括梅尔卡多比特币、NovaDAX和币安在内的中心化交易所共上市了200多个新的以巴西雷亚尔计价的交易对。
2025年3月,巴西金融科技公司Meliuz成为该国第一家推出比特币增持策略的上市公司,目前持有320比特币。
“拉丁美洲已经在全球范围内采用加密货币。市场现在需要的是机构级治理,这正是我们来到这里的原因,” ——加密金融集团首席执行官Stijn Vander Straeten
加密汇款用例
拉丁美洲每年从海外工人那里获得数千亿美元,这使汇款成为该地区最具体、最可衡量的加密用例之一。传统的转账服务平均每笔交易收取6.2%的费用。对于300美元的转账,大约相当于20美元的费用。
基于区块链的基础设施可以更广泛地降低费用。比特币使每转账100美元的成本约为3.12美元。而像XRP或以太坊第二层基础设施这样更便宜的替代方案可以将其降低到0.01美元以下。
对于向秘鲁汇款1,500美元的移民工人来说,仅从传统银行转账就能节省的费用超过秘鲁每周平均工资。
LATAM 的加密监管环境
最能决定LATAM是否发挥其2026年潜力的变量是加密监管。在这里,情况确实好坏参半。
巴西的《虚拟资产法》在该地区处于领先地位,该法涵盖资产隔离、VASP 许可、AML/KYC 要求和资本标准。它还实施了国内 VASP 转账旅行规则,该规则于 2026 年 2 月生效。但是,一些更具争议的提案,包括对跨境稳定币交易设定10万美元的上限以及禁止自托管钱包转账,仍在积极磋商中。
墨西哥的2018年金融科技法仍然是世界上最早正式承认虚拟资产的法规之一。智利的2023年金融科技法为交易所、钱包和稳定币发行人设立了许可证,正式承认数字资产为 “数字货币”。
玻利维亚于2024年6月批准了受监管的数字资产交易,撤销了长达十年的加密禁令。阿根廷于2025年引入了强制性交易所登记。尽管取消了比特币的法定货币地位,但萨尔瓦多仍在继续扩大代币化经济举措。
该地区的十个国家现在拥有某种正式的加密框架。但是对于交易者来说,监管分歧仍然是一种现实风险,鉴于巴西获得的拉美加密货币交易量占拉美所有加密货币交易量的近三分之一,任何重大的政策逆转都可能产生巨大的后果。

交易者应该注意什么
巴西的制度势头是最重要的结构性趋势。到2025年,巴西的链上交易量为3188亿美元,实际上是拉丁美洲市场。
巴西稳定币磋商的结果可能会产生很大的影响。限制在国内支付中使用外国稳定币将直接影响该地区主导市场中交易量最大的资产类别。
阿根廷是波动率的玩家。2025年,月活跃用户渗透率为12%,加密应用程序下载量为540万次,这表明零售参与度不断提高。
哥伦比亚是一个值得关注的预警市场。2025年比索贬值5.3%,财政危机的加深正在推动稳定币流入,其模式反映了阿根廷早年的发展轨迹。如果哥伦比亚的宏观形势进一步恶化,加密货币的采用可能会加速。
交易所集中风险也在起作用。币安加密货币交易所是超过50%的拉丁美洲加密用户的主要交易所。如果交易所面临任何监管行动、运营中断或竞争冲击,可能会对市场产生巨大的影响。
底线
拉丁美洲的加密市场进入了一个新阶段。导致该地区最初出现加密需求的结构性驱动因素尚未消失:通货膨胀、汇款、金融排斥和货币不稳定都仍在起作用。
所发生的变化是建立在它们之上的图层。机构基础设施、监管框架、企业资金的采用以及流入直到最近还基本自给自足的地区的全球交易所资本。
巴西在2025年将近-250%的交易量增长及其占拉美所有加密货币的近三分之一的地位是决定性的市场发展。其监管轨迹、稳定币政策决策和ETF渠道将有效地为该地区在2026年定下基调。
对于交易者而言,总体增长数据是真实的,但其背后的集中风险、监管不确定性以及国家层面的分歧也是真实的。


Moderna Inc. (MRNA) reported it latest financial numbers before the opening bell in the US on Thursday. The pharmaceutical company reported results that beat Wall Street estimates, sending the stock price higher on the day. Total revenue reported at $7.211 billion in the fourth quarter vs. $6.798 billion expected.
Earnings per share at $11.29 per share vs. estimate of $9.96 per share. Stéphane Bancel, CEO of Moderna commented on the last year’s performance following the latest results: "In 2021, we delivered 807 million doses with approximately 25% of those doses going to low- and middle-income countries, and we will continue to scale in 2022 to help end the COVID-19 pandemic. Moderna has experienced exponential growth and we have more than doubled the size of our team over the last year with a global team of 3,000.
We also have announced plans to scale to 21 commercial subsidiaries across the world, including four new locations in Asia and six new locations in Europe. We continue to expand and advance our industry-leading mRNA pipeline with 44 programs in development. We look forward to clinical readouts from our therapeutics development candidates later in 2022 in rare genetic diseases and oncology.
We are entering 2022 with a remarkable team and strategic priorities to continue advancing mRNA vaccines and therapeutics to impact human health." Moderna Inc. (MRNA) chart (Weekly) Share price of Moderna surged by over 10% during Thursday, trading at $147.53 per share. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year – 1 Month: +0.18% 3 Month: -45.54% Year-to-date: -41.38% 1 Year: +0.34% Moderna Inc. is the 274 th largest company in the world and 21 st largest pharmaceutical company with a total market cap of $59.54 billion. You can trade Moderna Inc. (MRNA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Moderna Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, CompaniesMarketCap


Mastercard Incorporated (MA) reported its latest financial results before the opening bell on Wall Street on Thursday. The US financial services company reported revenue of $5.497 billion in Q2, beating analyst estimate of $5.267 billion. Earnings per share reported at $2.56 per share vs. $2.36 per share expected. ''We had strong revenue and earnings growth again this quarter, as overall consumer spending remained robust and cross-border volumes grew 58% versus year ago,'' Michael Miebach, CEO of Mastercard said in a press release following the results. ''Increasing inflationary pressures have yet to significantly impact overall consumer spending but we will continue to monitor this closely.
We have a well-diversified business model and the demonstrated ability to deliver strong operating margins through up and down cycles,'' Miebach concluded. Mastercard Incorporated (MA) chart Shares of MasterCard were trading higher on Thursday after beating Wall Street expectations, up by around 1% at $348.50 per share. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 Month +10.56% 3 Month -7.92% Year-to-date -2.92% 1 Year -10.29% Mastercard Incorporated price targets JP Morgan $425 Wells Fargo $400 Piper Sandler $298 Mizuho $375 Truist Securities $420 Barclays $430 BMO Capital $402 Morgan Stanley $452 Mastercard Incorporated is the 19 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $338.14 billion.
You can trade Mastercard Incorporated (MA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Mastercard Incorporated, TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap


The Kansas City Federal Reserve is set to host the 45 th Annual Symposium at Jackson Hole Lodge in Wyoming’s Grand Teton National Park. Some of the countries and world’s most important central bankers, economists, and academics will be meeting to discuss the biggest issues facing the global economy. The key issue on the agenda is of “Reassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy.” All eyes will be on Jerome Powell, with the chairman of the Federal Reserve expected to speak on Thursday and provide an update on the proceedings of the conference.
At last year’s event Powell was caught out after stating that inflation was transitory, only to see it become a huge long-lasting issue. Therefore, he may try and correct this perception and portray a much more conservative attitude. There is also a view from some analysts that the Fed came across too dovish in the July meeting which led to the market rally.
At this stage the market has priced in a 75-bps increase at the September meeting, however this may change. With key inflation measures slowing somewhat, the question will be whether the fed continue its aggressive interest rate hikes or eases their policy to avoid a potential recession. The market will be hoping that Powell provides some clues for what the Fed plans to do after rates peak.
They will be hoping for clarity over whether the bank will hold the rates at the high levels for some time or lower them straight away to avoid a recession. Market participants should be weary that although Jackson Hole may provide some important context to the future rates, no official policies will be set. The conference will most likely have a relatively small impact on the market, it still has the potential to provide some volatility for both equities and currency if significant attitude shifts are expressed.
The USD is currently at 5 year highs and with some positive catalysts for the currency, it may continue to rise further if the Fed continues to be aggressive in its rate hikes.


JD.com Inc. (JD) announced its fourth-quarter earnings numbers on Thursday. The Chinese e-commerce company reported revenue of $43.422 billion (up by 23% year-over-year), slightly above Wall Street analysts forecast of $43.186 billion. Earnings per share reported at $0.35 per share vs. $0.28 per share expected. ''We are pleased to finish the year with a set of strong results on both the top and bottom lines as we continued to execute and deliver on our strategic priorities,'' said Sandy Xu, Chief Financial Officer of JD.com. ''During the quarter, we further optimized our operational efficiency through technology and innovation, increasing our competitiveness as well as our ability to support our business partners.
In 2022, we will continue to execute our business strategies and focus on sustainable high-quality growth across all of our business lines,'' Xu added. JD.com Inc. (JD) Share price of JD dropped following the latest financial results on Thursday, after the weakest revenue growth in six quarters. The stock was down by around 16% at $52.13 pe share.
Here is how the stock has performed in the past year – 1 Month: -31.40% 3 Month: -34.13% Year-to-date: -25.20% 1 Year: -41.77% JD.com Inc. is the 163 rd largest company in the world with total market cap of $85.95 billion. You can trade JD.com Inc. (JD) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk.
Sources: JD.com, TradingView, MetaTrader 5, CompaniesMarketCap


The recent price action of the Bitcoin suggests that the leading cryptocurrency may be ready for another sell off. Since last November when the currency peaked it has seen a sharp decline with retracements along the way. With inflation and recessionary pressures prevalent short-term volatility remains high as the market determines how to price the asset.
The Jackson Hole symposium is set to begin on Thursday in the USA and may effect the price in the short term if bullish or bearish sentiment comes from the event. The Chart The long-term outlook for Bitcoin is bearish. With constant sell downs and both the 50 Day and 200 day moving average both firmly pushing towards the downside.
Furthermore, the price has not been able to sustain any significant rally and has broken through its major support at $30,000 USD. Recent Price Action The concern for BTC is that it has sold out of the channel that it had been consolidating in and has therefore rejected the upward move. Similarly, the price has followed this action, twice before with both resulting in sell offs.
These patterns appear as traps for bulls because, buyers begin to feel FOMO and then enter long only to be ‘fake out’ as sellers soak up the buying volume and then continue to push the price back down. The RSI also supports more selling as it currently sits at 38 whilst the prior sell offs reached below 20. The RSI also looks to have made a triple top as shown in the chart further indicating that sellers may be ready to drive the price down further.
The concern for buyers is that this current sell off may not be finished. The 5-hour pattern looks to be forming a bear flag/pennant. If the price can break below it may fall to the next support at $17,000/18,000 USD.
This pattern is to be expected and is just reflective of sellers taking a breath before they continue to push the price lower. The price has also fallen back below the 50-period moving average indicting short term bearish sentiment. If the short-term target of $ 17,000/18,000 USD cannot hold the next target is the $13,500 USD level.


Iron ore prices have continued to rally to a six-month high this week, due in part to reports of potential easing of China’s strict COVID-19 policy and their signs of improved steel demand. The Singapore Exchange has the iron ore futures price reaching $165 USD a tonne on Tuesday, this is the highest level since July 2021. The price increase could have been attributed to a report that concluded that Beijing was considering potentially moving away from a zero-tolerance approach to COVID-19.
If this occurs, it could potentially put an end to the stop-start nature of China’s economic activities which has been happening since the start of COVID-19 pandemic. Another report indicated that experimental opening measures could arrive in a few select cities across China as early as June, which will coincide with the beginning of their Summer. A potential sign that China’s stimulus is contributing to rebound in growth can be evident earlier this month with the release of China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).
The PMI had increased to 50.2, which was greater than the economists’ consensus of 49.8. Some experts and economists believe that the PMI’s figures released next month of March will likely provide a better indication of the true state of China’s economy, given the effects of the Lunar New Year period in the first two months of the year. Iron ore supplies could also heavily affect its global price.
There are concerns about the supply disruptions caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, given their iron ore sector accounts for 100 million tonnes and 81 million tonnes a year, respectively. Heavy rain in the south-east of Brazil earlier this year, linked to the La Nina weather pattern, has forced producers to cease operations. Brazil is the second largest iron ore producer behind Australia, producing almost 400 million tonnes compared to Australia’s 900 million tonnes.
The increase in price to iron ore and energy has driven the AUD/USD to reach a new four month high of 74.41 US cents. Commonwealth Bank (CBA) believes that the currency is currently on track to end the first quarter near 74 US cents. They have updated the fair value estimate of the Australian dollar following the release of the RBA’s commodity price index for February.
CBA’s fair value for the AUD/USD ranges between 78-90 US cents, centred on 84 US cents. All in all, the AUD/USD has a healthy positive correlation with the price of iron ore due Australia being the largest producer. Investors can research the supply and demand of iron ore to achieve a good potential indication of the strength of the AUD/USD.
If you would like to take this opportunity to trade on the AUD/USD and require a trading account, you can open a trading account with GO Markets. Source: GO Markets MT5, Tradingview, Tradingeconmics, Statista, WSJ, Science.org, AFR
