市场资讯及洞察

Every four years, the Olympics does something markets understand very well: it concentrates attention. And when attention concentrates, so do headlines, narratives, positioning… and sometimes, price.

The Olympics isn’t just “two weeks of sport.” For traders, it’s a two-week global marketing and tourism event, delivered in real time, often while Australia is asleep.

So, let’s make this useful.

Scheduled dates: Friday 6 February to Sunday 22 February 2026
Where: Milan, Cortina d’Ampezzo, and alpine venues across northern Italy

What matters (and what doesn’t)

Matters

• Money moving early: Infrastructure, transport upgrades, sponsorship, media rights and tourism booking trends.
• Narrative amid liquidity: Themed trades can run harder than fundamentals, especially when volume shows up but can also reverse quickly.
• Earnings language: Traders often watch whether companies start referencing demand, bookings, ad spend, or guidance tailwinds.

Doesn’t

• Medal counts (controversial statement, I know).

Why the Olympics matter to markets

The Olympics are not just two weeks of sport. For host regions, they often reflect years of planning, investment and marketing and then all of that gets shoved into one concentrated global media moment. That’s why markets pay attention, even when the fundamentals haven’t suddenly reinvented themselves.

Here are a few themes host regions may see. Outcomes vary by host, timing, and the macro backdrop.

Theme map: where headlines usually cluster

Construction and materials
Logistics upgrades, transport links, and “sustainable” builds.

Luxury and tourism
Milan’s fashion-capital status starts turning into demand well before opening night.

Media and streaming
Advertising increases as audiences surge and platforms cash in.

Transport and travel
Airlines, hotels and travel tech riding the volume, and the expectations.

For Australian-based traders, the key idea is exposure, not geography. Italian listings aren’t required to see the theme while simultaneously, some people look for ASX-listed companies whose earnings may be linked to similar forces (travel demand, discretionary spend). The connection is not guaranteed. It depends on the business, the numbers and the valuation.

The ASX shortlist

The ASX shortlist is simply a way to organise the local market by exposure, so you can see which parts of the index are most likely to pick up the spillover. It is not a forecast and it is not a recommendation, it is a framework for tracking how a narrative moves from headlines into sector pricing, and for separating genuine theme exposure from names that are only catching the noise.

Wesfarmers (WES): broad retail exposure that gives a read on the local consumer.

Flight Centre (FLT): may offer higher exposure to travel cycles across retail and corporate.

Corporate Travel Management (CTD): business travel sensitivity, and it often reacts to conference and event demands.

The Aussie toolkit

The Olympics compresses attention, and when attention compresses, a handful of instruments tend to register it first while everything else just picks up noise. The whole point here is monitoring and discipline, not variety. 

FX: the fastest headline absorber

Examples: EUR/USD, EUR/AUD, with AUD/JPY often watched as broader risk-sentiment signals.
What it captures: how markets are pricing European optimism, global risk appetite, and where capital is leaning in real time

Index benchmarks: the sentiment dashboard

Examples (index level): Euro Stoxx 50, DAX, FTSE, S&P 500.
What it can capture: whether a headline is broad enough to influence wider positioning, or whether it stays contained to a narrow theme.

Commodities: second order, often the amplifier

Examples: copper (industrial sensitivity), Brent/WTI (energy and geopolitics), gold (risk/uncertainty).
What it can capture: the bigger drivers (USD, rates, growth expectations, weather and geopolitics) with the Olympics usually acting as the wrapper rather than the engine.

Put together, this is not a prediction, and it is not a shopping list. It is a compact map of where the Olympics story is most likely to show itself first, where it might spread next, and where it sometimes shows up late, after everyone has already decided how they feel about it.

Your calendar is not Europe’s calendar

For Aussie traders, the Olympics is a two-week, overnight headline cycle. Much of the “live” information flow is likely to land during the European and US sessions. However, there are three windows to keep in mind.

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Watch this space.

In the next piece, we’ll build the Euro checklist and map the volatility windows around Milano–Cortina so you can see when the market is actually pricing the story, and when it is just reacting to noise.

今年初澳元作为商品货币受大宗商品价格上涨和通胀持续反弹造成了澳元大幅持续反弹。 通过昨日澳洲联储在货币政策新闻发布会的信息会对澳元的走势会造成什么影响？

1. 通胀判断：通胀明显回潮，风险在“根深蒂固”

澳洲联储认为，尽管通胀已较2022 年高点明显回落，但2025 年下半年通胀再度走强、动能过于强劲，仍将长期高于2–3% 目标区间中值，因此必须防止通胀失控并固化。

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2. 加息立场：这不是一次性动作，但会保持谨慎

澳洲联储此次一致通过加息25bp 至 3.85%，明确释放“加息未必止步于此”的信号，但同时强调将保持高度谨慎，不预设利率路径、不提供前瞻指引，且未考虑50bp 的激进加息。

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3. 经济背景：需求强、供给受限，是通胀再起的根源

澳洲联储指出，私人需求增长显著超预期，而产能受限与生产力疲软等结构性问题叠加政府支出强劲，导致在经济整体表现尚可的情况下，供给难以匹配需求并持续推高通胀压力。

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4. 劳动力与金融条件：仍偏紧，政策可能还不够“紧”

澳洲联储认为，在劳动力市场依然紧俏、工资和信贷增长走强的背景下，当前金融状况可能仍偏宽松，现金利率水平亦低于部分中性利率估计。

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5. 澳元角色：欢迎升值，视为政策传导工具

行长布洛克表示，澳元升值不仅是政策传导机制的一部分，还可在边际上收紧金融条件、降低进口通胀，助力联储控制通胀。

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6. 前景与市场含义：年内再加息概率显著上升

官方预测显示，假设利率按当前路径发展，年中将接近3.9%，年底可能升至4.10%–4.20%。

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7. 结论：

澳洲联储因通胀回升、私人需求强劲及产能受限而鹰派加息25bp至3.85%，暗示年内可能继续加息，澳元短线走强，市场对加息周期预期明显升温。

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For over 110 years, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) has operated at a deliberate distance from the White House and Congress.

It is the only federal agency that doesn’t report to any single branch of government in the way most agencies do, and can implement policy without waiting for political approval.

These policies include interest rate decisions, adjusting the money supply, emergency lending to banks, capital reserve requirements for banks, and determining which financial institutions require heightened oversight.

The Fed can act independently on all these critical economic decisions and more.

But why does the US government enable this? And why is it that nearly every major economy has adopted a similar model for their central bank?

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The foundation of Fed independence: the panic of 1907

The Fed was established in 1913 following the Panic of 1907, a major financial crisis. It saw major banks collapse, the stock market drop nearly 50%, and credit markets freeze across the country.

At the time, the US had no central authority to inject liquidity into the banking system during emergencies or to prevent cascading bank failures from toppling the entire economy. 

J.P. Morgan personally orchestrated a bailout using his own fortune, highlighting just how fragile the US financial system had become.

The debate that followed revealed that while the US clearly needed a central bank, politicians were objectively seen as poorly positioned to run it.

Previous attempts at central banking had failed partly due to political interference. Presidents and Congress had used monetary policy to serve short-term political goals rather than long-term economic stability.

So it was decided that a stand-alone body responsible for making all major economic decisions would be created. Essentially, the Fed was created because politicians, who face elections and public pressure, couldn’t be relied upon to make unpopular decisions when needed for the long-term economy.

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How does Fed independence work?

Although the Fed is designed to be an autonomous body, separate from political influence, it still has accountability to the US government (and thereby US voters). 

The President is responsible for appointing the Fed Chair and the seven Governors of the Federal Reserve Board, subject to confirmation by the Senate. 

Each Governor serves a 14-year term, and the Chair serves a four-year term. The Governors' terms are staggered to prevent any single administration from being able to change the entire board overnight.

Beyond this “main” board, there are twelve regional Federal Reserve Banks that operate across the country. Their presidents are appointed by private-sector boards and approved by the Fed's seven Governors. Five of these presidents vote on interest rates at any given time, alongside the seven Governors.

This creates a decentralised structure where no single person or political party can dictate monetary policy. Changing the Fed's direction requires consensus across multiple appointees from different administrations.

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The case for Fed independence: Nixon, Burns, and the inflation hangover

The strongest argument for keeping the Fed independent comes from Nixon’s time as president in the 1970s.

Nixon pressured Fed Chair Arthur Burns to keep interest rates low in the lead-up to the 1972 election. Burns complied, and Nixon won in a landslide. Over the next decade, unemployment and inflation both rose simultaneously (commonly referred to now as “stagflation”). 

By the late 1970s, inflation exceeded 13 per cent, Nixon was out of office, and it was time to appoint a new Fed chair.

That new Fed chair was Paul Volcker. And despite public and political pressure to bring down interest rates and reduce unemployment, he pushed the rate up to more than 19 per cent to try to break inflation. 

The decision triggered a brutal recession, with unemployment hitting nearly 11 per cent. 

But by the mid-1980s, inflation had dropped back into the low single digits. 

Volcker stood firm where non-independent politicians would have backflipped in the face of plummeting poll numbers.

The “Volcker era” is now taught as a masterclass in why central banks need independence. The painful medicine worked because the Fed could withstand political backlash that would have broken a less autonomous institution.

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Are other central banks independent? 

Nearly every major developed economy has an independent central bank. The European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, and Reserve Bank of Australia all operate with similar autonomy from their governments as the Fed.

However, there are examples of developed nations that have moved away from independent central banks.

In Turkey, the president forced its central bank to maintain low rates even as inflation soared past 85 per cent. The decision served short-term political goals while devastating the purchasing power of everyday people.

Argentina's recurring economic crises have been exacerbated by monetary policy subordinated to political needs. Venezuela's hyperinflation accelerated after the government asserted greater control over its central bank.

The pattern tends to show that the more control the government has over monetary policy, the more the economy leans toward instability and higher inflation.

Independent central banks may not be perfect, but they have historically outperformed the alternative.

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Why do markets care about Fed independence?

Markets generally prefer predictability, and independent central banks make more predictable decisions.

Fed officials often outline how they plan to adjust policy and what their preferred data points are. 

Currently, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly jobs reports, and quarterly GDP releases form expectations about the future path of interest rates.

This transparency and predictability help businesses map out investments, banks to set lending rates, and everyday people to plan major financial decisions.

When political influence infiltrates these decisions, it introduces uncertainty. Instead of following predictable patterns based on publicly released data, interest rates can shift based on electoral considerations or political preference, which makes long-term planning more difficult.

The markets react to this uncertainty through stock price volatility, potential bond yield rises, and fluctuating currency values.

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The enduring logic

The independence of the Federal Reserve is about recognising that stable money and sustainable growth require institutions capable of making unpopular decisions when economic fundamentals demand them.

Elections will always create pressure for easier monetary conditions. Inflation will always tempt policymakers to delay painful adjustments. And the political calendar will never align perfectly with economic cycles. 

Fed independence exists to navigate these eternal tensions, not perfectly, but better than political control has managed throughout history.

That's why this principle, forged in financial panics and refined through successive crises, remains central to how modern economies function. And it's why debates about central bank independence, whenever they arise, touch something fundamental about how democracies can maintain long-term prosperity.

在 TradingView 的 Pine Script 语言中，内置变量和内置函数是构建指标和策略的基础。Pine Script® 内置了数百个变量和函数，它们为脚本提供行情数据、交易环境信息以及大量现成的计算能力，使开发者无需从零编写复杂逻辑，就能快速实现技术分析和策略回测。

可以说，对内置功能理解得越深入，Pine Script 的使用效率和上限就越高。

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一、内置变量的作用与分类

内置变量（Built-in Variables）主要用于提供当前图表环境中的各种信息，例如价格、成交量、时间、品种属性以及策略状态等。它们会随着每根 K 线自动更新，是 Pine Script 运行时最核心的数据来源。

1. 价格与成交量相关变量

最常用的一类是价格和成交量变量，包括：

• open、high、low、close
• hl2（(high + low) / 2）
• hlc3（(high + low + close) / 3）
• ohlc4（(open + high + low + close) / 4）
• volume

这些变量代表当前 K 线的数据，几乎所有技术指标都是基于它们计算而来。

2. 品种信息（syminfo 命名空间）

syminfo 命名空间用于获取当前交易品种的属性信息，例如：

• syminfo.ticker、syminfo.tickerid
• syminfo.currency、syminfo.basecurrency
• syminfo.mintick、syminfo.pointvalue
• syminfo.session、syminfo.timezone
• syminfo.type

这些变量在多品种策略、合约计算或跨市场分析中非常重要。

3. 周期信息（timeframe 命名空间）

timeframe 命名空间用于判断当前图表的时间周期，例如：

• timeframe.isseconds
• timeframe.isminutes
• timeframe.isintraday
• timeframe.isdaily
• timeframe.isweekly
• timeframe.ismonthly
• timeframe.multiplier
• timeframe.period

通过这些变量，脚本可以根据不同周期动态调整逻辑。

4. K 线状态（barstate 命名空间）

barstate 命名空间用于判断当前 K 线的状态，包括：

• barstate.isfirst
• barstate.islast
• barstate.isconfirmed
• barstate.isrealtime
• barstate.isnew

它们常用于避免重绘、控制信号触发时机，尤其在实盘策略中非常关键。

5. 策略状态（strategy 命名空间）

在策略脚本中，strategy 命名空间提供了账户和交易状态信息，例如：

• strategy.equity
• strategy.initial_capital
• strategy.position_size
• strategy.position_avg_price
• strategy.wintrades
• strategy.losstrades

这些变量用于分析策略表现和控制风控逻辑。

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二、内置函数的概念与结构

内置函数（Built-in Functions）同样定义在 Pine Script v6 参考手册中。每个函数都拥有明确的函数签名（signature），用于说明：

• 接受哪些参数
• 每个参数的类型
• 是否为必需参数
• 返回值的数量和类型

一个函数可以返回一个或多个结果，其返回值的类型通常以 series、float、int 等形式标注。

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三、常见内置函数分类

1. 数学函数（math 命名空间）

用于基础数学运算，例如：

• math.abs()
• math.log()
• math.max()
• math.random()
• math.round_to_mintick()

2. 技术指标函数（ta 命名空间）

这是最常用的一类函数，例如：

• ta.sma()（简单移动平均）
• ta.ema()（指数移动平均）
• ta.rsi()（相对强弱指标）
• ta.macd()（MACD）
• ta.supertrend()

此外，ta 命名空间还包含大量辅助函数，如：

• ta.crossover()
• ta.crossunder()
• ta.highest()
• ta.barssince()

3. 数据请求函数（request 命名空间）

用于请求其他品种或其他周期的数据，例如：

• request.security()
• request.financial()
• request.earnings()
• request.dividends()

这是实现多周期、多品种分析的核心工具。

4. 输入、字符串与颜色函数

• input()、input.int()、input.color() 用于定义用户可修改参数
• str.format()、str.tostring() 用于字符串处理
• color.rgb()、color.new() 用于颜色控制

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四、以 ta.vwma() 为例理解函数用法

ta.vwma() 用于计算成交量加权移动平均线，其中：

• source 是数据源（如 close）
• length 是计算周期
• 返回值类型为 series float

示例：

myVwma = ta.vwma(close, 20)

如果该语句位于全局作用域中，Pine Script 会在图表的每一根 K 线上执行该计算。

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五、有返回值与“副作用”函数

并非所有函数都以返回值为目的。一些函数主要通过副作用发挥作用，例如：

• indicator()、strategy()：定义脚本类型
• plot()、plotshape()、bgcolor()：绘图和着色
• strategy.entry()、strategy.exit()：下单操作
• alert()、alertcondition()：生成提醒

还有一些函数虽然返回值，但通常不需要使用其返回结果，如 plot()、label.new() 等。

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六、结语

Pine Script 的强大之处，正是在于其完善而系统的内置变量与函数体系。熟练查阅并使用 Pine Script v6 参考手册，理解命名空间、函数签名和类型系统，是从“能写脚本”进阶到“写好脚本”的关键一步。

无论是指标开发还是策略回测，内置功能都是 Pine Script 编程的核心武器。

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February opens with a policy-heavy tone led by Australia’s RBA decision, while Japan provides the core macro anchors through GDP and inflation updates. In contrast, China’s calendar lightens due to the Spring Festival, shifting attention to liquidity and policy headlines. Across the region, a firmer USD and softer metals continue to frame cross-asset performance, especially for commodity-linked currencies.

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Australia: RBA

Australia begins February with a policy-driven focus as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivers its monetary policy decision, setting the month’s initial tone for rates, currency, and equities. While markets had priced around a 70% chance of a hike as of 30 January, expectations remain highly sensitive to evolving data and RBA commentary.

Key dates

• RBA Monetary Policy Decision: 2:30 pm, 3 February (AEDT)
• Wage Price Index (WPI): 11:30 am, 18 February (AEDT)
• Labour Force: 11:30 am, 19 February (AEDT)

What markets look for

Aussie traders will gauge whether the RBA reinforces a data‑dependent stance or shifts more decisively toward tightening.

Wage and labour data will be central in testing inflation persistence, while the next CPI reading anchors positioning heading into March. A balanced or mildly hawkish tone could keep short‑term yields elevated and limit downside in the AUD.

Market sensitivities

AUD and ASX performance will primarily reflect the RBA’s policy tone and broader USD momentum, while resource‑linked sectors should continue to track metals and bulk commodity trends.

The February earnings season, highlighted by CBA and CSL (11 Feb), BHP (17 Feb), and Rio Tinto (19 Feb), is also set to reintroduce stock‑specific drivers once the initial policy focus fades.

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Australia: CPI

Australia’s February Consumer Price Index (CPI) release will be a key post‑RBA event, offering the clearest read on whether domestic inflation pressures are easing in line with the central bank’s expectations.

The data following the RBA’s February policy decision and could quickly reset rate path probabilities reflected in ASX futures pricing.

Key dates

• Consumer Price Index (CPI): 11:30 am, 25 February (AEDT)

What markets look for

Markets will focus on whether trimmed‑mean and services inflation components show further moderation.

Persistent strength in non‑tradables or wage‑related sectors could reinforce expectations for additional tightening later in Q1, while a softer headline would support the view that policy rates have peaked.

Market sensitivities‍

A stronger‑than‑expected CPI print would likely lift front‑end yields and support the AUD, while a downside surprise could weigh on the currency and flatten the yield curve.

Equity sentiment may diverge and financials could find relief from a pause bias, whereas rate‑sensitive sectors like real estate and consumer discretionary would benefit most from a cooler inflation read.

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Japan: Q4 GDP

Japan’s Q4 GDP release will be a key reference point for how firmly the recovery is progressing after recent quarters of uneven growth momentum. Arriving ahead of the Tokyo CPI print, it helps shape expectations for domestic demand, external trade performance, and how much scope policymakers have to adjust their stance without derailing activity.

Key dates

• Q4 GDP: 11:50 pm, 15 February (GMT)/ 10:50 am, 16 February (AEDT)

What markets look for

Investors pay close attention to the balance between consumption, business investment, and net exports to judge whether growth is broad‑based or narrowly supported.

A stronger‑than‑expected print tends to reinforce confidence in Japan’s expansion story, while a weaker outcome can revive concerns about stagnation and delay expectations for any meaningful policy shift.

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Japan: Tokyo CPI

Tokyo’s latest inflation reading shows headline CPI easing to 1.5% year‑on‑year in January from 2.0% in December 2025, dipping further below the recent peaks seen during the post‑pandemic upswing.

The CPI release offers one of the timeliest reads on Japan’s inflation pulse and is closely watched as a lead indicator for nationwide price trends.

Coming late in the month, it serves as a check on whether the recent inflation upswing is sustaining at levels consistent with policymakers’ many objectives.

• Tokyo CPI: 11:30 pm, 26 February (GMT)/ 10:30 am, 27 February (AEDT)

What markets look for

Attention centres on core measures that strip out volatile components, alongside services prices, to see whether underlying inflation is holding near target or drifting lower.

A firmer profile strengthens the case that Japan is exiting its low‑inflation regime, while softer readings suggest that price pressures remain fragile and dependent on external factors.

Market sensitivities

A hotter‑than‑expected Tokyo CPI print can push Japanese yields higher and lend support to the yen, often translating into pressure on exporter‑heavy equity names.

Conversely, a softer outcome tends to ease yield pressures, weaken the yen, and provide some relief to equity sectors that benefit from a more accommodative policy backdrop.

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China

China’s February macro calendar is structurally lighter due to Spring Festival timing.

The National Bureau of Statistics of China notes that some releases are adjusted around Spring Festival timing, with the February PMI scheduled for early March leaving markets without major domestic data anchors for much of the month.

Key dates

• Spring Festival: 17 February to 3 March

What markets look for

Markets turn their focus to policy signals out of Beijing — think targeted stimulus or liquidity injections, as well as shifts in funding conditions and flows responding to global risk sentiment or USD moves.

Trade and tariff rhetoric, or surprise consumption measures like expanded trade-in subsidies and festive spending incentives recently flagged by the Ministry of Commerce, often spark sharper reactions than the usual data releases.

Market sensitivities

CNH and CNY pairs turn more reactive to USD flows and external headlines, often amplifying volatility in regional equities, commodity currencies like AUD, and China-exposed EM assets.

Holiday-thinned liquidity elevates headline risk, particularly in materials (iron ore, copper), tech hardware supply chains, and regional financials, where policy surprises or US tariff updates can trigger 1–2% daily index swings.

Expected earnings date: Wednesday, 4 February 2026 (US, after market close) / ~8:00 am, Thursday, 5 February 2026 (AEDT)

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Alphabet’s earnings provide insight into global digital advertising demand, enterprise cloud spending, and broader technology-sector investment trends. 

As Google Search and YouTube are widely used by both consumers and businesses, results are often used as one input when assessing online activity and corporate marketing budgets, alongside other indicators. 

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Key areas in focus

Search

Search advertising remains Alphabet’s largest revenue driver. Markets are likely to focus on ad growth rates, pricing metrics such as cost-per-click, and overall advertiser demand across sectors such as retail, travel, and small-to-medium businesses.

YouTube

YouTube contributes to both advertising and subscription revenue. Markets commonly monitor advertising momentum, engagement trends, and monetisation developments as indicators of digital media conditions and brand spending.  

Google Cloud

Sustained Cloud profitability is often discussed as a factor that may influence longer-term earnings expectations, though outcomes remain uncertain. Markets are expected to focus on revenue growth, enterprise adoption trends, and operating margins. 

Other bets

Initiatives such as autonomous driving and life sciences, while typically smaller contributors to revenue, markets may still watch spending levels and progress updates as indicators of capital allocation and cost discipline. 

Cost and margin framework

Management has previously flagged elevated capex tied to AI infrastructure, including data centres, specialised chips, and computing capacity. Traffic acquisition costs, staffing levels, and infrastructure expansion are also key variables influencing profitability. 

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What happened last quarter

Alphabet’s most recent quarterly update highlighted advertising trends, Cloud profitability, and continued increases in capex to support AI initiatives. 

Management commentary has indicated that infrastructure spending is intended to support long-term competitiveness, while the market continues to assess the near-term margin trade-offs.  

Last earnings key highlights

For reported figures and segment detail from the most recent quarter, refer to Alphabet’s latest earnings release materials, including revenue, earnings per share (EPS), Services mix, Cloud operating income, and capex commentary. 

• Revenue: US$102.35 billion
• EPS: US$2.87
• Operating income: US$31.23 billion
• Services revenue: US$87.05 billion
• Cloud revenue: US$15.16 billion

Google Services revenues and operating income Q3 2025 | Alphabet earnings release

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What’s expected this quarter

Bloomberg consensus estimates moderate year-on-year (YoY) revenue growth and higher EPS versus the prior-year quarter, with ongoing focus on operating margins given AI-related investment. 

Bloomberg consensus reference points: 

• EPS: low-to-mid US$2 range
• Revenue: high US$80 billion to low US$90 billion range
• Capex: expected to remain elevated

*All above points observed as of 31 January 2026.

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Market-implied expectations

Listed options implied an indicative expected move of around ±4% to ±6% over the relevant near-dated expiry window. Movements derived from option prices observed at 11:00 am AEDT, 2 February 2026.

These are market-implied estimates and may change. Actual post-earnings price moves can be larger or smaller.

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What this means for Australian market participants

Alphabet’s earnings can influence near-term sentiment across major US equity indices, particularly Nasdaq-linked products, with potential spillover into the Asia session following the release.

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Important risk note

Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information. 

Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.