市场资讯及洞察

自上周以来白银价格已经飙升25%以上，在欧美国家欢庆佳节的时刻，一场以白银领导的全球贵金属市场的超大动荡以迅雷不及掩耳之势袭来。

2025年毋庸置疑可以被称作贵金属年，迄今为止距离年初黄金涨幅已经超过73%，白银涨幅超过190%，铂金涨幅超过180%。作为本轮的主角白银来说他从各方面性质又和黄金不完全相同，白银在工业属性上的强力需求是本轮能完成戴维斯双击共鸣的重要因素，如果想了解白银本次一飞冲天的本质因素，需要从两个宏观基本面和两个资金导向因素进行挖掘。

贵金属的宏观“避险”逻辑

我们总说大炮一响黄金万两，但是俄乌战争这个贵金属最初的催化剂已过去数年，中东地区的战争冲突也已阶段性进入平静，但是今年的黄金和一众贵金属小弟则是鸡犬升天，究其原因市场避险的并非是阶段性全球发生的冲突与炮火而是在避险被庞大债务阴影笼罩的美国经济。自上世纪70年代布雷顿森林体系崩盘以来黄金已经上涨超过了128倍，细数这中间每一轮的牛市其实都和美国的经济周期有莫大的关系。概括来说，这一轮美国国债体量达到38万亿之后，市场曾以为美联储依旧会根据其独立性去审慎定义货币体系和全球的金融规则，但是特朗普作为搅局者在上台后从大而美法案（提高债务上限），到疯狂叫嚣美联储降息（发推特），安插激进鸽派进入美联储（米兰上任），以及甄选比鲍威尔更听话的主席继任（鲍明年中退休，现预计候选人为激进鸽派）。一系列手段基本验证了一个全球市场都不想接受的事实就是美国发现在通胀不会严重失控的前提下将开启进一步的宽松通过稀释来减缓债务压力，现阶段美国的债务压力极强，万亿利息支出早已超越军费。全球各国在识穿了美国的阳谋之后能做的事情就是囤积黄金降低美债持有，今年的贵金属整体趋势是黄金作为头部对冲长期通胀资产所引领，而作为贵金属的二号头目白银自然不会脱离本轮主要牛市的趋向。

白银的工业需求和恐怖的供需失衡

虽然作为贵金属之一跟随牛市的Alpha只是上涨的因素之一，白银本轮的上涨Beta则深深的藏在其较为可怕的供需失衡当中，在过去五年中白银全球市场已经连续五年处于供应短缺状态，最新数据显示2024年到2025年之间白银的年度供给缺口为1.5到2亿盎司，而其中伦敦金银市场协会LBMA和纽约COMEX的白银显性库存距离2021年的峰值已经下降了40%，上交所的库存也跌至近十年低位。与之对应的是白银可怕的工业需求，作为全球光伏巨头在新光伏技术方向上对白银的消耗较此前PERC技术的消耗量高出30%-50%，异质结的银耗量则接近翻倍，这种可怕的工业需求是其他贵金属所不具备的。尤其是在人工智能高速发展对电网和电能需求进一步攀升的今天。

供给侧嗷嗷待哺，供应侧却面临无米之炊的难产，不同于金价对金矿的扩产催动，白银是一个高度伴生的矿产，全球28%的白银来自原生家庭，而剩下的72%则全部来自于铜铅锌的副产品，所以白银价格对供应影响是极其不敏感的，哪怕白银价格翻倍暴涨，供应端的涨幅仍旧不紧不慢，这种供需之间可怕的失衡是促成此次戴维斯双击的重要共振因素。

圣诞劫亚洲盘面的猎杀时刻：

本轮欧美节假日是一年交投理论上最清淡的时刻，欧盘美盘的做市商交易员忙着欢庆节假日，亚洲主力利用这一流动性真空时期发动了多头的强力逼空，这轮行情中COMEX的挂单簿极其稀薄，推动价格上涨的资金需求远非正常时段，上交所直接主导了本轮白银价格的龙头趋势，导致欧美交割库进一步紧张，同时多个欧美空头关键技术点位触及止损带来市场进一步的资金倾轧，而本轮节假日结束白银先是向上跳张就完美的印证了这点，而这从长期看也是国家战略布局的阳谋之一，毕竟光伏大国在东方，白银的定价需求对未来的能源战略地位是有举足轻重的影响。

板块轮动带来的强势补涨

这轮白银上涨不是单纯自己上涨，铂金等年内没有跟着黄金大幅走强的贵金属也有提振，而白银历史上和黄金的比例（俗称金银比）约为50-60之间，今年因为黄金快速起飞这个数据之前被拉升到了80以上，而历史上每一轮出现这种情况，金银比都会因为板块资金轮动快速修正到40-50左右，所以这轮上涨板块轮动也是因素之一，ETF的资金回流进一步促成了这一趋势。

总结：历史上白银的牛市都很短促会在短期内高涨后下跌，但是现阶段几个因素来看这轮涨势的因素仍旧存在，在重要因素没有转向之前，趋势或难以断定是否逆转，市场有风险，交易需谨慎。

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一、全球及澳大利亚金融状况概览：

在本次会议上，委员们回顾了全球及澳大利亚的金融状况。近期全球科技股估值过高引发市场波动，股票价格一度下跌后反弹，美国市场受预期宽松货币政策支撑，而澳大利亚股市下跌持续更久，反映市场对现金利率上升和部分板块估值调整。全球债市利差仍低，但部分国家公司债收益率上升。利率预期方面，美联储预计降息并延续宽松，欧洲央行维持利率，加拿大、新西兰、瑞典和澳大利亚可能上调，日本则在通胀压力下逐步加息。澳大利亚短期债券收益率上升，但澳元仅小幅升值，缓解金融紧缩压力。国内方面，抵押贷款支出高企，家庭储蓄率维持高位，信贷需求回升，企业债务占GDP比重恢复至疫情前水平，显示金融状况喜忧参半。

二、经济增长与通胀趋势：

委员们对国内经济增长与通胀趋势进行了评估。10月年度CPI升至3.8%，部分因电费补贴停止，新房成本、市场服务、耐用品及国内旅行价格均高于预期，短期通胀前景上行风险增加，但数据波动性较大，需继续观察。劳动力市场方面，失业率上升趋势已在10月得到控制，其他未充分利用劳动力指标维持低水平，企业招聘仍有困难，但工资价格指数总体稳定，公共部门工资增长抵消私营部门放缓，整体略显紧张。经济增长方面，截至9月季度GDP增速接近潜在水平，私人需求增长强劲，数据中心和住房投资为主要动力，宽松政策效果预计在2026年显现。产出缺口为正，NAB产能利用率指标显示产能约束高于历史平均水平，表明经济存在一定需求过剩。

三、货币政策考量与决策

在政策讨论中，委员们重点关注三方面：总需求略高于潜在供给，通胀风险上升但持续性仍不明；私人需求复苏将支撑劳动力需求，经济增长动力依然存在；金融环境信号分化，部分委员认为不再紧缩，部分认为仍略紧，需观察债券收益率及利率上升影响。近期CPI及成本端指标显示通胀压力上行，但短期内过度推断趋势存在风险。若通胀持续上行，未来一年可能需加息，但仍需评估金融环境和市场利率对经济的作用。本次会议决定维持现金利率目标3.60%不变，并强调将持续密切关注数据变化及经济前景，在未来会议评估政策调整必要性。董事会重申其使命，致力实现价格稳定和充分就业，并将采取一切必要措施达成目标。

总结：

本次RBA会议表示，金融状况信号分化，利率上升与汇率变动影响尚未完全显现；通胀压力上行但短期持续性不明；劳动力市场略紧，私人需求复苏支撑经济。政策暂按兵不动，未来可能加息，重点关注2026年初通胀数据及金融市场动态。

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What moved the S&P 500 in 2025?

In 2025, the S&P 500 traded around 6,835 and was up approximately 16% year to date (YTD). Market direction remained most sensitive to Federal Reserve expectations, inflation data and the earnings outlook, with returns also shaped by mega-cap tech leadership and the broader AI narrative. The index pulled back from earlier December highs, but it has so far held above key major moving averages (MA).

Key 2025 drivers included:

• ‍Fed expectations and inflation: Inflation cooled through the year but remained sticky around 2.5% to 3%. A Fed easing bias likely supported price to earnings (P/E) multiples and “risk-on” positioning. More recently, markets appeared increasingly rate-sensitive, with the decreased likelihood of an additional rate cut until March 2026.
• ‍Earnings and guidance: Corporate earnings remained strong quarter on quarter. Recent Q3 results reportedly saw over 80% of the S&P 500 beat earnings per share (EPS) expectations. For Q4, the estimated year-over-year earnings growth rate is 8.1%, despite ongoing concerns around import tariffs and potential margin pressure.
• ‍Index leadership and breadth: Returns were heavily influenced by mega-cap tech and AI beneficiaries, even as broader market breadth appeared less consistent at points through the year.
• ‍Policy headlines and volatility: Trade and tariff headlines drove sharp moves, particularly earlier in the year. Some investors pointed to the “TACO” trade, with rapid recoveries after policy proposals were softened. Over time, similar shocks appeared to have less impact as the market became somewhat desensitised.
• ‍Valuations and sensitivity: The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 22, above the 5-year average (20.0) and above the 10-year average (18.7). That gap kept valuation sensitivity, especially in AI-linked names, firmly in focus.

Current state

The S&P 500 is about 1% below record highs hit earlier in December. That could indicate the broader uptrend remains in place, with a move back toward the recent highs one possible scenario if momentum improves. Despite the recent retracement, the index remains above all key major moving averages (MA). The latest bounce followed lower than expected CPI numbers earlier this week, alongside continued, and to some, surprising optimism about what may come next.

What to watch in January

• ‍Q4 earnings from mid-January: Results and guidance may help clarify whether valuations are being supported by forward expectations.
• ‍AI narrative and positioning: With AI-linked mega-caps carrying a large share of market capitalisation, changes in sentiment or expectations could have an outsized impact on index performance.
• ‍US jobs and CPI data: The latest US jobs report reportedly points to the highest headline unemployment rate since 2021. Cooling inflation this week may keep markets alert to shifts in rate cut timing, particularly around the March decision.

S&P 500 daily chart

Major FX pairs

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AUD/USD

AUDUSD has been choppy in 2025. Since the “redemption day” drop in April, the move has looked more like a steady grind higher than a clean upside trend.

Key levels
Recent peaks in early September and mid-December highlight resistance near 0.6625. Support has been evident around 0.6425, where price bounced over the last month.

What is supporting the bounce
That support test coincided with stronger than expected jobs and inflation data, lifting expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may raise rates during 2026 rather than cut again. The latest pullback looks contained so far, with buying interest already visible and price still above key longer-term moving averages.

What could drive a breakout
The pair remains range-bound, but the tilt is still constructive. If Chinese data stays firm, metals prices hold up, and the central bank outlook remains relatively hawkish, a break above resistance could gain more traction.

AUD/USD daily chart

EUR/USD

After early 2025 euro strength, EURUSD has mostly consolidated since June in a roughly 270 pip range. This month tested 1.18 resistance, reaching highs not seen since September.

What price is doing now
The recent pullback still lacks strong downside conviction. Some technical analysts refer to the 1.17 area as a near-term reference level.

What could come next
If price holds 1.17 and buyers step back in, another push toward 1.18 is possible. One view is that the European Central Bank (ECB) could be less inclined to ease in 2026, which could be consistent with a firmer EURUSD scenario. Broader analyst commentary also suggests the euro may stall rather than collapse against the US dollar, although outcomes remain data and policy dependent.

EUR/USD daily chart

USD/JPY

Year-to-date picture
USDJPY is close to flat overall for the year. After US dollar weakness in Q1, the pair reversed higher and now sits just below resistance near 158.

Rates remain the main driver
Rate differentials still favour the US dollar. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) held steady for much of the period despite expectations it might act, and the recent rate increase was modest. Policy has only moved marginally away from zero.

What could shift the balance
Rate differentials remain a key influence. Without a clearer shift in BOJ policy, the JPY may find it difficult to sustain a rebound. Some market commentators cite 154.20 as a chart reference level.

USD/JPY daily chart

TradingView编程系列5：循环结构（上）

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循环（Loops） 是一种结构，它会根据指定的条件反复执行一段语句块。它们允许脚本在不需要重复编写代码的情况下完成重复性的任务。Pine Script提供了三种不同的循环类型：for、while 和 for…in。

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一、隐式循环

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Pine Script的执行模型和时间序列结构，使得在许多情况下并不需要写出明显的循环。

当用户将一个 Pine 脚本添加到图表中时，脚本会在一个等同于“大循环”的环境中运行：它会在可用数据中的每一根历史 K 线以及每一个实时 tick 上各执行一次代码。脚本可以通过历史引用运算符（history-referencing operator）访问之前 K 线上的执行结果；而通过使用 var 或 varip 关键字声明的变量，其计算结果可以在多次执行之间保持不变。这些特性使脚本能够通过逐 K 线（bar-by-bar）的计算来完成各种任务，而无需依赖显式的循环。

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下面我们来看一个简单的示例，说明在 Pine Script 中不必要地使用循环的情况。

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下面按逐行解释这段 Pine Script 代码的含义和执行逻辑：

首先，声明这是一个指标脚本（indicator）。test是指标在图表上显示的名称。overlay = true 表示该指标绘制在主价格图表上。

其次，声明一个整数类型变量名为lengthInput的变量。input.int()为创建一个用户可在参数设置中修改的整数输入项，其中默认值为 20 根 K 线。在参数面板中显示的名称为length。

接下来，再声明一个初始化变量为 0，浮点数类型的变量closeSum。注意，由于没有使用 var 关键字，在每一根 K 线上脚本执行时，closeSum 都会被重新置为 0。

然后进入for循环，对最近的 lengthInput 根 K 线进行循环，将每根 K 线的收盘价累加到 closeSum。在循环体中，把最近 lengthInput 根 K 线的收盘价逐一相加。

再之后，用收盘价总和除以 K 线数量，计算平均值，保存到变量avgClose中。

最后，将数据画成线，其中"Average close"为图例名称，线条颜色为橙色，线条宽度为2。

总结来说，这段代码就是用for循环计算并绘制最近 lengthInput 根 K 线的收盘价平均值。

其实，这个示例的重点在于演示 “不必要的循环”，在 Pine Script 中，这种均值计算可以直接使用内置函数ta.sma，例如：

avgClose = ta.sma(close, lengthInput)

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二、显性循环

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尽管 Pine 的执行模型、时间序列结构以及可用的内置函数在许多情况下都能消除对循环的需求，但并非所有迭代任务都可以不用循环。在以下几类任务中，循环是必不可少的：

• 遍历或操作集合（如数组、矩阵和映射）
• 执行无法通过无循环表达式或现有内置函数完成的计算
• 回溯历史数据以分析过去的 K 线，而比较所需的参考值仅在当前 K 线上才可用

例如，要判断哪些过去的 K 线的最高价（high）高于当前 K 线的最高价，就必须使用循环。

这是因为：当前 K 线的数值在脚本运行于之前的历史 K 线时是无法获取的。脚本只能在执行到当前 K 线时访问该 K 线的数值，并且必须在这次执行过程中向后回溯历史序列，将之前的数值与当前值进行比较。

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例如，下面的脚本使用 for 循环，将之前 lengthInput 根 K 线的最高价与最后一根历史 K 线的最高价进行比较。在循环中，它调用 label.new()，在每一根最高价高于最后一根历史 K 线最高价的过去 K 线上方绘制一个圆形标签：

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首先，声明这是一个名为test2的指标脚本。此脚本允许最多绘制 500 个label，否则在绘制大量标签时会触发限制错误。然后设置lengthInput变量，该变量表示要拿多少根过去的 K 线的最高价（high），来和最后一根历史 K 线的最高价比较，1和500为允许输入的最小值和最大值。

接下来，判断当前是否是最后一根已确认的历史 K 线。barstate.islastconfirmedhistory在历史数据的最后一根 K 线时返回 true，在实时 K 线或更早的历史 K 线上返回 false。

在最后一根历史K线的最高价位置画一条水平虚线。其中line.new的前四个参数分别为起点横坐标，起点纵坐标，终点横坐标，终点纵坐标。

接下来进入For循环，首先判断过去某根 K 线的最高价 > 当前（最后历史）K 线的最高价，如果高于，则紫色圆形标签自动绘制在 K 线柱的上方。

最后一行代码，使用三元运算符判断给最后一根历史 K 线上色高亮。如果是最后一根历史 K 线，则为橙色，否则不改变颜色。

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可以看到，当我们将长度参数设置为 60 后，图表中会在最高价高于当前 K 线最高价的历史 K 线上方显示紫色圆点，同时还会绘制一条表示当前 K 线最高价的水平虚线，用于直观地标示该参考价位。

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综上所述，本文通过示例对比说明了 Pine Script 中“不必要循环”和“必须使用循环”的典型场景。合理理解 Pine 的执行模型，优先使用内置函数，可以提升脚本的简洁性与性能；而在需要基于当前 K 线回溯并分析历史数据时，循环则不可或缺。掌握循环的正确使用方式，有助于编写更高效、清晰且功能强大的 Pine Script 脚本。

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What moved the ASX 200 in 2025?

In 2025, the ASX 200 closed around 8,621 points and was up approximately 6% year to date (YTD) as of 19 December close. Market direction was most sensitive to Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expectations, commodity prices and China-linked demand, and (to a lesser extent) moves in the Australian dollar (AUD). The index recovered from November’s pullback, but remained below October’s record close.

Key 2025 drivers included:

• RBA policy expectations: Sentiment was shaped by shifting views on the timing and extent of rate moves. The November pullback reflected repricing towards a longer pause and higher uncertainty around whether the next move could be a hike rather than a cut, particularly as jobs and inflation data surprised.
• Resources and China sensitivity: With a meaningful resources weight, the index responded to iron ore stability, strong gold prices and relative firmness in base metals. China data and any perceived policy support (including signals from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC)) remained important for the export backdrop. A relatively stable AUD also reduced currency-related noise for exporters.
• Index composition and market structure: The ASX 200’s heavier tilt to materials and banks, and lower exposure to high-growth technology, meant it often lagged tech-led global rallies, but tended to hold up better when AI and growth valuations were questioned.
• Corporate earnings: Reporting season outcomes influenced valuation support. In September’s half-year reporting season, around 33% of ASX 200 companies beat expectations, which helped underpin pricing around current levels.

Current state

The ASX 200 was roughly 5% below its late-October record high close of 9,094 points. After the November retracement, support around 8,400 appeared to hold and buying interest improved. The 50-day EMA near 8,730 (a prior consolidation area) was a commonly watched near-term reference, noting technical indicators can be unreliable.

What to watch in January

• China and commodity demand: Growth, trade and any fresh stimulus inference from the PBOC may affect sentiment.
• Domestic inflation and labour data: CPI and jobs prints are key inputs into RBA expectations.
• Key levels and follow-through: The post-November rebound may need continued demand to sustain momentum.

What moved the Nikkei 225 in 2025?

In 2025, the Nikkei 225 traded around 39,200 points and was up approximately 21% year to date (YTD). Market direction was most sensitive to moves in the Japanese yen (JPY) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) communication, with the index consolidating after multi-decade highs. While broader signals remained constructive, consolidation can resolve either higher or lower.

Key influences included:

• JPY movements and earnings translation: A weaker JPY can boost the reported value of overseas earnings for some exporters, although it may also increase input and import costs. The net impact often depends on company hedging practices and varies by sector, with effects most evident in export-heavy industries such as automotive, industrials and parts of technology manufacturing.
• Gradual BOJ policy transition: The BOJ continued to step away from ultra-easy settings, but tightening was generally cautious. Markets largely priced a slow, conditional normalisation, which helped limit downside, even as policy headlines created bouts of volatility.
• Corporate governance reforms: Ongoing improvements in capital efficiency and shareholder returns supported interest from overseas investors. Share buybacks, stronger balance-sheet discipline and improved return on equity (ROE) contributed to re-rating in parts of the market.
• Global cyclical exposure: The Nikkei moved with shifts in global manufacturing sentiment and expectations for US growth, particularly during risk-on phases associated with AI-related capital spending.

Current state

After pushing to multi-decade highs earlier in the year, the Nikkei spent time consolidating but has remained structurally strong. Price sits above key long-term moving averages, and some technicians watch the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) as a potential reference level (noting these indicators can be unreliable). Currency swings and shifting BOJ expectations were commonly cited as contributors to much of the second-half volatility, although pullbacks were generally met with buying interest.

What to watch in January for Japan

• JPY volatility: Sharper yen moves, especially if driven by BOJ or Federal Reserve expectations, could quickly change exporter earnings assumptions.
• BOJ communication: Small changes in language on inflation persistence or bond market operations may move sentiment.
• Global growth data: US and China manufacturing and trade prints remain key inputs for an externally focused economy.

2025 has seen a material decline in the fortunes of the greenback. A technical structure breakdown early in the year was followed by a breach of the 200-day moving average (MA) at the end of Q1. The index then entered correction territory, printing a three-year low at the end of Q2.

Since then, we have seen attempts to build a technical base, including a re-test of the end-of-June lows in mid-September. However, buying pressure has not been strong enough to push price back above the technically critical and psychologically important 100 level.

What the levels suggest from here

As things stand, the index remains more than 10% lower for 2025. On this technical view, the index may revisit the 96 area. However, technical levels can fail and outcomes depend on multiple factors.

US dollar index

The key question for 2026

The key question remains: are we likely to see further losses in the early part of next year and beyond, or will current support hold?

We cannot assess the US dollar in isolation and any outlook is shaped by internal and global factors, not least its relative strength versus other major currencies. Many of these drivers are interrelated, but four potential headwinds stand out for any US dollar recovery. Collectively, they may keep downside pressure in play.

Four headwinds for any US dollar recovery

1. The US dollar as a safe-haven trade

One scenario where US dollar support has historically been evident is during major global events, slowdowns and market shocks. However, the more muted response of the US dollar during risk-off episodes this year suggests a shift away from the historical norm, with fewer sustained US dollar rallies.

Instead, throughout 2025, some investors appeared to favour gold, and at other times, FX and even equities, rather than into the US dollar. If this change in behaviour persists through 2026, it could make recovery harder, even if global economic pressure builds over the year ahead.

2. US versus global trade

Trade policy is harder to measure objectively, and outcomes can be difficult to predict. That said, trade battles driven by tariffs on US imports are often viewed as an additional potential drag on the US dollar.

The impact may be twofold if additional strain is placed on the US economy through:

• a slowdown in global trade volumes as impacted countries seek alternative trade relationships, with supply chain distortions that may not favour US growth
  
• pressure on US corporate profit margins as tariffs lift costs for importers
  

3. Removal of quantitative tightening

The Fed formally halted its balance sheet reduction, quantitative tightening (QT), as of 1 December 2025, ending a program that shrank assets by roughly US$2.4 trillion since mid-2022.

Traditionally, ending QT is seen as marginally negative for the US dollar because it stops the withdrawal of liquidity, can ease global funding conditions, and may reduce the scarcity that can support dollar demand. Put simply, more dollars in the system can soften the currency’s support at the margin, although outcomes have varied historically and often depend on broader financial conditions.

4. Interest rate differential

Interest rate differential (IRD) is likely to be a primary driver of US dollar strength, or otherwise, in the months ahead. The latest FOMC meeting delivered the expected 0.25% cut, with attention on guidance for what may come next.

Even after a softer-than-expected CPI print, markets have been reluctant to price aggressive near-term easing. At the time of writing, less than a 20% chance of a January cut is priced in, and it may be March before we see the next move.

The Fed is balancing sticky inflation against a jobs market under pressure, with the headline rate back at levels last seen in 2012. The practical takeaway is that a more accommodative stance may add to downward pressure on the US dollar.

Current expectations imply around two rate cuts through 2026, with the potential for further easing beyond that, broadly consistent with the median projections shown in the chart below. These are forecasts rather than guarantees, and they can shift as economic data and policy guidance evolve.