Data de ganhos esperados: Quarta-feira, 4 de fevereiro de 2026 (EUA, após o fechamento do mercado)/~ 8h, quinta-feira, 5 de fevereiro de 2026 (AEDT)

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Os ganhos da Alphabet fornecem informações sobre a demanda global de publicidade digital, os gastos corporativos em nuvem e as tendências mais amplas de investimento no setor de tecnologia.

Como a Pesquisa do Google e o YouTube são amplamente usados por consumidores e empresas, os resultados geralmente são usados como uma única entrada ao avaliar a atividade on-line e os orçamentos de marketing corporativo, além de outros indicadores.

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Principais áreas em foco

Pesquisar

A publicidade de busca continua sendo a maior fonte de receita da Alphabet. É provável que os mercados se concentrem nas taxas de crescimento de anúncios, nas métricas de preços, como custo por clique, e na demanda geral dos anunciantes em setores como varejo, viagens e empresas de pequeno a médio porte.

YouTube

O YouTube contribui com a receita de publicidade e de assinaturas. Os mercados geralmente monitoram a dinâmica da publicidade, as tendências de engajamento e os desenvolvimentos da monetização como indicadores das condições da mídia digital e dos gastos da marca.

Nuvem do Google

A lucratividade sustentada da nuvem é frequentemente discutida como um fator que pode influenciar as expectativas de lucros de longo prazo, embora os resultados permaneçam incertos. Espera-se que os mercados se concentrem no crescimento da receita, nas tendências de adoção empresarial e nas margens operacionais.

Outras apostas

Iniciativas como direção autônoma e ciências biológicas, embora normalmente contribuam menos para a receita, os mercados ainda podem observar os níveis de gastos e as atualizações de progresso como indicadores de alocação de capital e disciplina de custos.

Estrutura de custo e margem

A gerência já havia sinalizado um alto capex vinculado à infraestrutura de IA, incluindo data centers, chips especializados e capacidade de computação. Os custos de aquisição de tráfego, os níveis de pessoal e a expansão da infraestrutura também são variáveis-chave que influenciam a lucratividade.

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O que aconteceu no último trimestre

A atualização trimestral mais recente da Alphabet destacou tendências de publicidade, lucratividade na nuvem e aumentos contínuos no capex para apoiar iniciativas de IA.

Comentários da administração indicaram que os gastos com infraestrutura têm como objetivo apoiar a competitividade de longo prazo, enquanto o mercado continua avaliando as compensações de margem de curto prazo.

Principais destaques dos últimos ganhos

Para obter os números relatados e os detalhes do segmento do trimestre mais recente, consulte os materiais de divulgação de resultados mais recentes da Alphabet, incluindo receita, lucro por ação (EPS), mix de serviços, receita operacional em nuvem e comentários sobre capital.

• Receita: USD 102,35 bilhões
• EPS: US$2,87
• Receita operacional: USD 31,23 bilhões
• Receita de serviços: USD 87,05 bilhões
• Receita de nuvem: USD 15,16 bilhões

Receitas de serviços do Google e receita operacional no terceiro trimestre de 2025 | Divulgação de resultados da Alphabet

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O que se espera neste trimestre

O consenso da Bloomberg estima um crescimento moderado da receita ano a ano (YoY) e maior EPS em relação ao trimestre do ano anterior, com foco contínuo nas margens operacionais, considerando o investimento relacionado à IA.

Pontos de referência consensuais da Bloomberg:

• EPS: faixa baixa a média de USD 2
• Receita: faixa de alta de USD 80 bilhões a baixa de USD 90 bilhões
• Capex: espera-se que permaneça elevado

*Todos os pontos acima observados em 31 de janeiro de 2026.

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Expectativas implícitas no mercado

As opções listadas implicaram um movimento indicativo esperado de cerca de ± 4% a ± 6% ao longo da janela de expiração de data próxima relevante. Movimentos derivados dos preços das opções observados às 11:00 AEDT, 2 de fevereiro de 2026.

Essas são estimativas implícitas no mercado e podem mudar. Os movimentos reais de preços pós-lucro podem ser maiores ou menores.

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O que isso significa para os participantes do mercado australiano

Os lucros da Alphabet podem influenciar o sentimento de curto prazo nos principais índices de ações dos EUA, particularmente nos produtos vinculados à Nasdaq, com potencial repercussão na sessão asiática após o lançamento.

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Nota de risco importante

Imediatamente após o fechamento dos EUA e no início da sessão asiática, os futuros do Nasdaq 100 (NDX) e os preços de CFD relacionados podem refletir menor liquidez, spreads mais amplos e repreços mais nítidos em torno de novas informações.

Esse ambiente pode aumentar o risco de lacunas e a incerteza de execução em relação às condições do horário normal.

Data de ganhos esperados: Quinta-feira, 5 de fevereiro de 2026 (EUA, após o fechamento do mercado) /início da sexta-feira, 6 de fevereiro de 2026

Os ganhos da Amazon fornecem informações sobre as tendências globais de gastos do consumidor, a demanda por infraestrutura em nuvem e a monetização de seu ecossistema em serviços de varejo, publicidade e assinatura.

Espera-se que o foco permaneça no desempenho nas principais áreas de negócios, juntamente com comentários sobre eficiência de custos, despesas de capital e investimentos relacionados à IA, incluindo a expansão do data center.

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Principais áreas em foco

Lojas on-line e serviços de terceiros

O principal negócio de varejo da Amazon permanece sensível à demanda discricionária do consumidor, especialmente durante o período de férias do trimestre de dezembro. É provável que os mercados se concentrem no crescimento da receita e nas margens dos serviços de varejo primário e de vendedores terceirizados. As pressões de custo também serão avaliadas.

AWS (Amazon Web Services)

A AWS é um dos principais impulsionadores de receita. É provável que os investidores se concentrem nas taxas de crescimento da receita, nas tendências de margem e nas indicações sobre os gastos corporativos em nuvem. As cargas de trabalho de IA também serão dignas de nota. Qualquer comentário sobre expansão de capacidade e capex provavelmente será acompanhado de perto.

Serviços de publicidade

O negócio de publicidade da Amazon se tornou um contribuidor de lucros cada vez mais importante. É provável que os mercados avaliem a dinâmica de crescimento, a demanda dos anunciantes e como a publicidade se integra aos ecossistemas de varejo e Prime da Amazon.

Serviços de assinatura (incluindo Prime)

A receita de assinaturas inclui assinaturas Prime e serviços digitais relacionados. Os investidores podem observar o engajamento, a dinâmica de preços e as tendências de retenção como indicadores da força do ecossistema.

Estrutura de custo e margem

A gerência já havia enfatizado a necessidade de disciplina de custos em despesas de atendimento, logística e corporativas. As margens operacionais relatadas e quaisquer atualizações sobre ganhos de eficiência ou prioridades de reinvestimento nos principais serviços comerciais serão interessantes.

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O que aconteceu no último trimestre

A atualização trimestral mais recente da Amazon relatou resultados de crescimento da receita e da receita operacional, com a AWS e a publicidade referenciadas como principais contribuidores, juntamente com medidas contínuas de controle de custos em todo o negócio de varejo.

A atualização anterior também incluiu discussões relevantes sobre as prioridades de investimento em infraestrutura de nuvem e IA, que continuam influenciando as expectativas do mercado.

Principais destaques dos últimos ganhos

• Receita: USD 180,2 bilhões
• Lucro por ação (EPS): USD 1,95 (diluído)
• Receita da AWS: USD 33,0 bilhões
• Receita de serviços de publicidade: USD 17,7 bilhões
• Receita operacional: USD 17,4 bilhões

Como o mercado reagiu da última vez

As ações da Amazon subiram nas negociações fora do horário comercial após o lançamento anterior, com base em relatórios da época.

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O que se espera neste trimestre

As estimativas consensuais da Bloomberg apontam para um crescimento anual do EPS no trimestre encerrado em dezembro de 2025, com os mercados focados no resultado da receita, nas margens operacionais e no desempenho da AWS, dada a importância do trimestre de dezembro (quarto trimestre) para o perfil de lucros da Amazon.

Pontos de referência consensuais da Bloomberg (janeiro de 2026):

• EPS: cerca de US$1,60
• Receita: cerca de USD 170 bilhões
• EPS anual do ano fiscal de 2026: cerca de US$5,10

*Todos os pontos acima observados em 27 de janeiro de 2026.

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As expectativas

O sentimento do mercado em relação à Amazon pode ser sensível a qualquer decepção no crescimento da AWS, nas margens operacionais ou no desempenho do varejo no trimestre de dezembro (quarto trimestre de 2025), dada a grande ponderação do índice das ações nos principais índices de ações dos EUA e seu papel nessas áreas.

As opções listadas estavam precificando um movimento indicativo de cerca de ± 4% a ± 5% com base nas estimativas de movimentação esperadas implícitas em opções monetárias, observadas no Barchart às 11:00 AEDT, 28 de janeiro de 2026.

A volatilidade implícita foi de aproximadamente 32% anualizada na época.

Essas são estimativas implícitas no mercado (não uma previsão) e podem mudar. Os movimentos reais de preços pós-lucro podem ser maiores ou menores.

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O que isso significa para os investidores australianos

Os lucros da Amazon podem influenciar o sentimento de curto prazo nos principais índices de ações dos EUA, com potencial repercussão na sessão asiática após o lançamento. Também pode influenciar o sentimento em relação às empresas listadas na ASX com exposição significativa às vendas on-line.

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Nota de risco importante

Imediatamente após o fechamento dos EUA e no início da sessão asiática, os futuros do Nasdaq 100 (NDX) e os preços de CFD relacionados podem refletir menor liquidez, spreads mais amplos e repreços mais nítidos em torno de novas informações.

Esse ambiente pode aumentar o risco de lacunas e a incerteza de execução em relação às condições do horário normal.

Expected earnings date: Thursday, 29 January 2026 (US, after market close) / early Friday, 30 January 2026 (AEDT)

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Key areas in focus

iPhone

The iPhone remains Apple’s largest revenue driver. Markets are likely to focus on unit demand, product mix (including higher-end models), and any signals on upgrade momentum and regional trends.

Services

Investors are likely to focus on growth across areas such as the App Store, iCloud, Apple Music and other subscriptions, alongside any commentary on average revenue per user (ARPU). The size and engagement of Apple’s installed base remain central to overall performance.

Wearables, home and accessories

This segment includes products such as Apple Watch, AirPods, Beats headphones, home-related devices, and accessories. Investors are likely to watch revenue trends in this segment as an indicator of discretionary consumer demand. 

Cost and margin framework

Management has flagged tariff and component cost pressures in prior commentary. Markets may remain sensitive to gross margin commentary and any signals of incremental cost pressure or mitigation strategies. 

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What happened last quarter

Apple’s most recent quarterly update (fiscal Q4 2025) highlighted record September-quarter revenue and EPS, alongside record Services revenue and continued emphasis on installed-base strength.  

The prior update also included discussion of holiday-quarter expectations and cost headwinds (including tariffs), which have influenced expected margins and management guidance.

Last earnings key highlights

• Revenue: US$102.5 billion 
• Earnings per share (EPS): US$1.85 (diluted) 
• iPhone revenue: US$49.03 billion 
• Services revenue: US$28.75 billion 
• Net income: US$27.5 billion 

How the market reacted last time

Apple shares rose in after-hours trading following the release, as investors assessed the results against analyst expectations and management’s holiday-quarter commentary, including tariff-related cost pressures and regional demand considerations. 

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What’s expected this quarter

Bloomberg consensus points to year-on-year EPS growth, with markets also focused on the revenue outcome and gross margins, given the scale and importance of the holiday quarter for Apple’s earnings profile. 

Bloomberg consensus reference points (January 2026):

• EPS: about US$2.65 
• Revenue: about US$138 billion 
• Full-year FY2026 EPS: about US$8.1 

*All above points observed as of 26 January 2026.

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Expectations

Sentiment around Apple may be sensitive to any disappointment on holiday-quarter revenue, Services momentum, or margin commentary, given the stock’s large index weight and the importance of this reporting period. 

Listed options were implying an indicative move of around ±3% to ±4% based on near-dated, at-the-money options-implied expected move estimates observed on Barchart at 11:00 am AEDT on 25 January 2026.  Implied volatility was approximately 29% annualised at that time. 

These are market-implied estimates (not a forecast) and may change. Actual post-earnings price moves can be larger or smaller.

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What this means for Australian traders

Apple’s earnings can influence near-term sentiment across major US equity indices, particularly Nasdaq-linked products, with potential spillover into the Asia session following the release.

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Important risk note 

Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information. 

Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.

Expected earnings date: Wednesday, 28 January 2026 (US, after market close) / early Thursday, 29 January 2026 (AEDT)

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Key areas in focus

The Tesla earnings release can act as a barometer for both global EV demand and capital-intensive innovation across automation and energy systems.

Vehicle deliveries and margins are likely to be the primary near-term drivers of sentiment. Investors will also be watching updates across adjacent initiatives that may influence longer-term growth expectations.

Autonomy and software (FSD)

Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) is a branded advanced driver-assistance feature sold in some markets and requires active driver supervision; availability and capabilities vary by jurisdiction. 

Further rollout and any expansion of autonomy-linked services remain subject to regulatory approvals and continued evolution of the underlying technology.

Energy generation and storage

Solar, Powerwall and Megapack remain a key focus, particularly given the segment’s recent growth contribution. 

Robotics (Optimus)

Optimus remains early stage, with no disclosed revenue contribution to date. It may become more relevant to Tesla’s longer-term AI and automation aspirations. 

Expectations remain delicately balanced between near-term margin pressure, the impact of demand and interest rate movements, and longer-term product and platform developments.

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What happened last quarter?

In Q3 2025 (September quarter), Tesla reported mixed results versus consensus expectations. Revenue and deliveries reached record levels, while earnings and margins remained under pressure amid pricing and cost dynamics. 

Tesla said it was navigating a challenging pricing environment while continuing to invest for long-term growth (as referenced in the shareholder communications cited below). 

Last earnings key highlights

• Revenue: ~US$28.1 billion 
• Earnings per share (EPS): ~US$0.50 (non-GAAP, diluted) 
• Total GAAP gross margin: ~18.0%; 
• Operating margin: ~5.8% 
• Free cash flow (FCF): ~US$4.0 billion 
• Vehicle deliveries: ~497,099 units, up ~7% year on year (YoY) 

How did the market react last time?

Tesla shares were volatile in after-hours trading, with attention focused on margins relative to revenue. 

What’s expected this quarter?

As of mid-January 2026, third-party consensus estimates (Bloomberg) indicated continued focus on revenue growth alongside profitability and margin resilience. These are third-party estimates, not company guidance, and can change. 

Key consensus reference points include: 

• Revenue: market expectations ~US$27 billion to US$28 billion 
• EPS: consensus clustered near US$0.55 to US$0.60 (adjusted) 
• Deliveries: market estimates ~510,000 to 520,000 vehicles 
• Margins: focus on whether automotive gross margin stabilises near recent levels or trends lower 
• Capital expenditure (capex): focus on spending discipline and efficiency rather than acceleration 

*All above points observed as of 16 January 2026.

Key areas markets often focus on include:

• Profit margin trajectory, and whether cost efficiencies are offsetting pricing pressure
• Delivery volumes relative to consensus expectations
• Pricing strategy and evidence of demand elasticity across regions
• Capex and implications for future FCF
• Progress in energy storage and non-automotive revenue streams
• Commentary on AI, autonomy and longer-term investment priorities

Expectations

Market sentiment could be described as cautiously optimistic, with investors weighing revenue momentum against margin concerns.

Price has pulled back into a range following a brief test of recent highs in December. Given the recent range-bound price action, deviations from consensus across key earnings metrics may prompt a larger move in either direction.

Listed options were pricing an indicative move of around ±5.5% based on near-dated options expiring after 28 January and an at-the-money (ATM) options-implied expected move estimate.

Implied volatility (IV) was about 47.7% annualised into the event, as observed on Barchart at 11:30 am AEDT on 16 January 2026 (local time of observation). 

These are market-implied estimates and may change. Actual post-earnings moves can be larger or smaller.

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What this means for Australian traders

Tesla’s earnings may influence near-term sentiment across US growth and technology indices, with potential flow-through to broader risk appetite.

For Australian markets, any read-through is often framed through supply chain sensitivity. Market participants may look to related sectors such as lithium and rare earth producers linked to EV inputs are one potential channel, alongside broader sentiment impacts from Tesla’s innovation commentary.

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Important risk note

Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information. 

Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.

Expected earnings date: Wednesday, 28 January 2026 (US, after market close) / early Thursday, 29 January 2026 (AEDT)

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Key areas in focus

Intelligent Cloud (Azure)

Azure remains Microsoft’s primary earnings swing factor. Markets are watching to see whether any growth reflects demand strength or capacity constraints, and how AI-related workloads are impacting margins.

Productivity and Business Processes

Microsoft 365, Office, and LinkedIn are sources of recurring revenue for Microsoft. Growth, pricing discipline, and client churn remain the key variables that markets will be watching.

Personal Computing

Windows, devices, and gaming are more cyclical. Stabilisation of PC demand and gaming engagement remain secondary sources of revenue but are still noteworthy.

Artificial intelligence

Approaches around the monetisation of Microsoft’s AI play are still developing. Trends in enrolment and infrastructure cost are expected to be key factors.

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What happened last quarter

Microsoft reported results ahead of consensus, supported by steady cloud demand and resilient enterprise software revenues. 

Azure and other cloud services' growth remained a central focus, alongside commentary on AI-related investment and capacity.

Last earnings key highlights:

• Revenue: US$77.7 billion 
• Earnings per share (EPS): US$3.72 (GAAP) and US$4.13 (non-GAAP adjusted) 
• Intelligent Cloud revenue: US$30.9 billion
• Azure and other cloud services: up 40% year on year 
• Operating income: US$38.0 billion 

How the market reacted last time

Microsoft shares fell in after-hours trading following the release, despite the beating of headline numbers, as investors focused on AI investment intensity, capacity constraints and related implications for future margins.

What’s expected this quarter

Bloomberg consensus points to continued revenue growth led by cloud services, alongside broadly stable margins despite elevated capex.

Bloomberg consensus reference points (January 2026):

• Revenue: about US$68 to US$69 billion 
• EPS: about US$3.10 to US$3.20 (adjusted) 
• Azure growth: mid-to-high 20% year on year (YoY) (constant currency) 
• Operating margin: expected to remain broadly stable 
• Capex: expected to remain elevated, reflecting AI and cloud build-out 

*All above points observed as of 16 January 2026.

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Expectations

Sentiment appears cautious. Microsoft can remain sensitive to any cloud, margin, or guidance disappointment, particularly where investors interpret investment intensity as open-ended.

Price action traded within an established range of US$472 and US$490 recently, but has moved below this in the last week.

Listed options were pricing an indicative move of around ±2% based on near-dated options expiring after 28 January and an at-the-money options-implied ‘expected move’ estimate.

Implied volatility was about 33.5% annualised into the event as observed on Barchart at 11:00 AEDT on 16^th January 2026.

These are market-implied estimates and may change; actual post-earnings moves can be larger or smaller.

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What this means for Australian traders

Microsoft’s earnings may influence near-term sentiment across US technology indices, particularly the Nasdaq, with potential spillover into global equity risk appetite and, in turn, the ASX.

As a major technology stock, and with Tesla (TSLA) also scheduled to report after the US close on the same day, volatility in Nasdaq-linked products may increase while futures markets remain open.

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Important risk note 

Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information. 

Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.

Expected earnings date: Wednesday, 28 January 2026 (US, after market close) / early Thursday, 29 January 2026 (AEDT)

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Key areas in focus

Advertising (Family of Apps)

Advertising remains Meta’s dominant revenue driver. AI-driven ad targeting, Reels monetisation, and engagement efficiency can be important contributors to revenue growth and may support advertiser outcomes, noting results can vary by advertiser, format, and market conditions.

User engagement and monetisation

Engagement trends across Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Threads remain closely watched as indicators that can influence monetisation assumptions and medium-term expectations.

Artificial intelligence

Meta views AI as a foundation for content discovery, advertising performance, and the development of generative tools. Markets may continue to evaluate whether AI-driven gains offset the level of infrastructure and data centre investment required to support these projects.

Reality Labs

Reality Labs remains loss-making. Management continues to frame AR/VR and metaverse-related platforms as long-term strategic investments, while acknowledging continued operating losses and a drag on earnings performance.

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What happened last quarter

Meta’s most recent quarterly update highlighted strong revenue growth alongside ongoing investment themes. 

The company’s reported (GAAP) net income and EPS reflected a one-time, non-cash income tax charge disclosed in the earnings materials, while management commentary also emphasised cost discipline and investment priorities.

Operating margins expanded year-on-year, despite elevated AI-related investment.

Last earnings key highlights

• Revenue: US$51.24 billion 
• Earnings per share (EPS): US$1.05 (GAAP) 
• Advertising revenue: US$50.08 billion 
• Operating margin: 40% 
• Reality Labs operating loss: about US$4.43 billion 

How the market reacted last time

Meta shares fell in after-hours trading after the release. Commentary at the time highlighted strong top-line outcomes, alongside investor focus on the outlook for spending and the pace of AI and infrastructure investment.

What’s expected this quarter

Bloomberg consensus points to continued year-on-year revenue growth, led by advertising, with operating margins expected to remain elevated despite ongoing AI and infrastructure expenditure.

Bloomberg consensus reference points (January 2026)

• Revenue: about US$41 to US$43 billion 
• EPS: about US$4.80 to US$5.10 (adjusted) 
• Advertising growth: high-teens year on year (YoY) 
• Operating margin: expected to remain above 40% 
• Capital expenditure (capex): elevated, reflecting AI and data centre investment 

*All above points observed as of 23 January 2026.

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Expectations

Sentiment around Meta Platforms may be sensitive to any disappointment around advertising demand, margin sustainability, or the scale of ongoing investment in AI and Reality Labs.

Recent price action suggests that some market participants appear to be pricing in a relatively constructive earnings outcome, which can increase sensitivity to negative surprises.

Listed options were pricing an indicative move of around ±3% based on near-dated options expiring after 28 January and an at-the-money options-implied ‘expected move’ estimate.

Implied volatility was about 31% annualised into the event, as observed on Barchart at 11:00 am AEDT on 23 January 2026.

These are market-implied estimates and may change. Actual post-earnings moves can be larger or smaller.

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What this means for Australian traders

Meta’s earnings may influence near-term sentiment across US technology indices, particularly the Nasdaq, with potential spillover into broader global equity risk appetite and index-linked products traded during the Asia session after the release, which can be volatile and unpredictable following earnings events.

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Important risk note

Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information. 

Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.