Notícias de mercado & insights

The Aussie dollar has been fairly directionless since late February with it seemingly waiting for a catalyst to break it’s ranges and take the next leg up or down, data this week has failed to provide that. This opens up a couple of very good opportunities for traders, range trading the AUDUSD and mean reversion trades on the AUDNZD. Starting with AUDUSD, we’ve seen a very strong and tight range develop between a high of 0.6818 to a low of 0.6564 since late February, with the AUD moving in unison with risk sentiment, recently a push lower in this pair has been driven by US debt ceiling concerns, and haven flows into the USD.

Using an equidistant four-part grid the buy and sell zones to take advantage of this range trading opportunity become clear. While this range continues, buying in the green zones and selling in the red zones has so far been very successful. This looks likely to continue while the aforementioned US debt ceiling impasse remains in place, though traders will need to be on top of any developments, a resolution is likely to see risk roar back and the AUD take a leg up.

The other opportunity is the relative underperformance of the AUD vs its close neighbour, NZD. This has seen AUDNZD drop below its 10 year mean of 1.07, giving mean reversion traders an opportunity to buy this pair at a discount. Weekly chart of AUDNZD, showing how this mean reversion trade has worked over the last 8 years.

To help with entries, a shorter time frame chart can be used, below is the 4-hour chart showing a strong support zone has formed between 1.0650 – 1.0580 during the last month, where price has tested on multiple occasions before moving back to the 1.07 level. These are two of my favourite trading styles I’ve used over the years, but as always, have an exit plan and keep aware of macro happenings if you are looking to incorporate this style of trading into your toolbox. AUDUSD – US debt ceiling negotiations AUDNZD – RBA and RBNZ rate expectations

The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX, DXY, DX, or, informally termed “the Dixie") is a measure of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. It is often used as an indicator of the overall strength or weakness of the U.S. dollar in the foreign exchange market.

Changes in the index value reflect shifts in the relative strength of the U.S. dollar compared to the other currencies in the basket. If the index rises, it suggests that the U.S. dollar is strengthening against the other currencies, and if it falls, it indicates a weakening dollar. The index is calculated using a geometric mean of the exchange rates between the U.S. dollar and a selected specific group of six major currencies.

A common misconception is the component currencies reflect what are commonly thought of as including the currencies that comprise the so called “majors”. However, the currencies that make up this basket are, the Euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), British pound (GBP), Canadian dollar (CAD), Swedish krona (SEK), and Swiss franc (CHF) ONLY. These currencies are then weighted based on their importance in international trade and financial markets to create a quoted overall numerical value, and changes in this value may plotted on a chart as with any other tradable asset class over a set period of time.

Here are the weightings of currencies that make up the USD index currently: Euro (EUR) - Weight: 57.6% Japanese Yen (JPY) - Weight: 13.6% British Pound (GBP) - Weight: 11.9% Canadian Dollar (CAD) - Weight: 9.1% Swedish Krona (SEK) - Weight: 4.2% Swiss Franc (CHF) - Weight: 3.6% Please keep in mind that these weightings are subject to change, albeit infrequently, and it's recommended to refer to reliable financial sources for the most up-to-date information on the U.S. Dollar Index components and their respective weightings. The impact of the USD on other asset classes The U.S.

Dollar Index (USDX) can have a significant impact on various asset classes, as changes in the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other major currencies can influence global financial markets and economic conditions. Here's how the USDX can affect different asset classes: Foreign Exchange (Forex) Market: Currency Pairs: The most direct impact of the USDX is on currency pairs. When the USDX strengthens, the U.S. dollar is gaining relative to other currencies in the basket.

Bear in mind that this strength may neither be uniform against individual currencies nor in the degree of price move in specific USD crosses nor even, on occasion, in the same direction. Commodities: Commodity Prices: A stronger U.S. dollar can put downward pressure on commodity prices. Commodities like gold, oil, and copper are often priced in U.S. dollars globally.

A stronger dollar can make these commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies, hence often there is an inverse relationship to some degree on how these move versus the USD. Gold is often seen as a hedge against a weakening U.S. dollar. When the dollar strengthens, gold can become relatively less attractive to investors seeking safe-haven assets, potentially leading to lower gold prices.

Equity Markets: U.S. Stocks: A stronger dollar can impact multinational companies' earnings negatively. When the dollar appreciates, the overseas profits of U.S. companies become worth less when converted back to dollars, potentially leading to lower corporate earnings.

Emerging Markets: Many emerging market economies borrow in U.S. dollars. If the U.S. dollar strengthens, the debt servicing costs for these economies can rise, leading to economic challenges. As a result, some emerging market stocks can experience increased volatility or even significant economic pressure over time.

Bonds: U.S. Treasuries: The value of U.S. Treasury bonds can be influenced by the USDX.

A stronger dollar can attract foreign investors seeking higher yields, potentially driving up demand for U.S. Treasuries and affecting bond prices. Interest Rates and Central Banks: US Federal Reserve Policy: The strength of the U.S. dollar can influence the decisions of the U.S.

Federal Reserve regarding interest rates. A stronger dollar might give the Fed room to consider tighter monetary policy, while a weaker dollar might lead to more accommodative policies. It's important to note that market dynamics are complex and influenced by a multitude of factors only one of which may be the USD.

Other factors such as economic data, geopolitical events, and central bank actions also have significant impacts on various asset classes, often more so than the USD itself, and indeed may in turn influence the USD. Trading the USD index There are a few ways you can trade the USDX: Futures Contracts: The most direct way to trade the USDX is through futures contracts. These contracts are traded on exchanges like the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).

They allow you to speculate on the future value of the USDX without actually owning the underlying currencies. The UDX futures trade on the ICE (Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.) for 21 hours a day. Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs): Some ETFs track the performance of the USDX.

These ETFs attempt to replicate the movements of the index and can be bought and sold on stock exchanges like regular stocks. The most liquid of these is UUP. Options: Contracts allow you to buy or sell options on the USDX at a specified price before or on a certain date.

Contracts for Difference (CFDs): CFDs are derivative instruments that allow you to speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset. We offer CFDs on the USDX futures contract, which can enable you to go long or short the asset. As part of the extensive product suite offered by GO Markets you have the opportunity to trade both the ETF referenced above, and the USD index (ticker code USDOLLAR). (Keywords: Forex, USD, US dollar, US dollar index, USDX, DXY, Futures contract)

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is an economic indicator used to measure the health and activity level of a specific sector of an economy, namely the manufacturing or services sectors. PMI data is published on a monthly basis and is of three types: Manufacturing PMI: This is the most well-known type of PMI. It measures the health of the manufacturing sector within an economy.

The index is derived from surveys of purchasing managers at manufacturing companies and covers aspects like production, new orders, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Services PMI: This measures the performance of the services sector, which includes industries like finance, healthcare, retail, education, and more. The services PMI considers factors such as business activity, new orders, employment, and business expectations.

Composite PMI: The composite PMI combines both the manufacturing and services PMI data to provide a broader picture of the overall economic activity in a country. This can be particularly useful for assessing the overall health of the economy. It provides insight into whether a sector is expanding or contracting by examining various business activity components.

PMI is a widely recognised and followed indicator that helps analysts, policymakers, and investors assess the overall economic conditions. The PMI can be viewed as a timely and forward-looking indicator, reflecting overall current economic conditions and provides insights into potential future trends. Here's how the PMI works: Data Collection: Surveys are conducted among purchasing managers from a representative sample of companies in the chosen sector.

These managers are responsible for making procurement decisions, which often provides insight into the current state of economic activity. Components: The PMI survey typically includes questions about various aspects of business activity, such as new orders, production output, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventory levels. Respondents indicate whether these components are expanding, contracting, or staying the same.

Scoring System: Each component of the survey is assigned a score. A score above 50 generally indicates expansion or growth in that component, while a score below 50 indicates contraction. A score of exactly 50 suggests no change.

Calculation of the final PMI: The scores of various components are aggregated to calculate the overall PMI. If the majority of components show expansion, the PMI will be above 50; if the majority show contraction, the PMI will be below 50. Sub-Indices: In addition to the overall PMI, sub-indices might provide insights into specific components like new orders, production, employment, and more.

PMI – The Market Response The market response to PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) data can be quite significant and can impact various financial asset classes. As with any economic data, the market response to PMI releases will be largely dependent on the consensus estimates of each of the numbers (with are theoretically priced into markets to some degree) against the actual numbers released, and how close this is to estimates. A figure that is wide of the mark compared to expectations is likely to produce a more severe market response.

The response depends on several factors, including the direction of the PMI reading, the sector being measured, the overall economic context, the global significance of the country relevant country (e.g. US PMI may have more global market impact) and underlying market sentiment. Although the exact impact will be dependent on the PMI in the overall economic context, generally speaking the following may be some of the common responses.

General asset classes Equity Markets: A PMI reading above 50 is generally seen as a sign of economic expansion and growth. In the event of a better than expected number, this can lead to increased investor confidence in the market's overall health, potentially driving stock prices higher. A number less than expected and/or below 50 is likely as with this and those assets classes below to have the reverse impact, Currency Markets: In the foreign exchange market, a strong PMI reading can strengthen the currency of the country due to increased confidence in its economic outlook, and in interest sensitive environments may encourage central bank action potentially.

Commodity Markets: A positive PMI may signal increased demand for raw materials and resources, potentially boosting commodity prices, notably base metals and oil. Again, the country for which the PMI is released is relevant with a global impact on commodity prices only with the major manufacturing economies e.g. US and China.

Impact on Interest Rates: Central banks often closely monitor PMI data as part of their decision-making process regarding interest rates. A strong PMI might suggest an economy is heating up, potentially leading to discussions of tightening monetary policy (raising interest rates) to reduce the likelihood of increasing inflation. Conversely, a weak PMI might indicate the need for loosening policy (lowering interest rates) to stimulate growth.

Sector-Specific Responses: Different sectors can have varying sensitivities to PMI data. For example, manufacturing-focused indices and stocks may have a more pronounced response to PMI data related to manufacturing, while service sector indices may react more strongly to service sector PMI data. PMI data is a valuable tool for economists, investors, and policymakers to assess economic trends, make informed decisions, and understand the performance of various sectors within an economy.

As traders, our responsibilities are not only to keep abreast of not only when key data such as the PMI is released but to potentially take this into account with reference to potential risks, in our trading decision-making. (Keywords: PMI, Purchasing Managers Index, market data)

Familiarity with terminology used in financial markets is arguably highly important for those investing in financial products. This understanding can assist with both entry and exit decision-making in the context of an individual's risk profile and objectives. Two terms that are often used to describe the overall position of a central bank are "Hawkish" and "Dovish." For traders and investors, understanding the subtle clues in central banks' communications about their policy stances can be vital, irrespective of their chosen trading or investing approach, as the impact can be far-reaching.

Such communications are often released within statements that go along with interest rate decisions themselves, individual speeches from central bank members, and, of course, interpretations and opinions contributed by financial media commentators. It's important to note that neither a hawkish nor a dovish stance is universally good or bad. The appropriateness of either approach will depend on specific economic conditions and is always to topic of much debate among the financial community as well as within central banks themselves.

Other key factors to consider are not only the stance itself but also whether there are changes in the degree to which this is the case, and of course, how well or otherwise this matches current market expectations. Irrespective of the detail, the bottom line remains that because of the significant influence of the central bank stance, both in the short and long term, being attuned to these policy shifts and adapting trading strategies accordingly can be a powerful tool for traders. The purpose of this article is to describe these terms in a little more detail, their implications for financial markets in the context of the economic changes that may result from either.

Hawkish Policy The hawkish stance emphasises the importance of keeping inflation in check and curbing economic overheating, even if it means sacrificing some economic growth in the process. In practical terms, this is often delivered through increasing interest rates, and supporters of a hawkish approach believe that maintaining stable prices creates a more predictable economic environment, considered essential for making informed investment and financial decisions. Dovish policy A dovish policy stance is typically adopted by a central bank to stimulate economic growth.

It is characterised by a more accommodative monetary policy, and includes lowering interest rates and may even involve putting in other measures to increase money supply in the economy. The main objective is to encourage borrowing and investment, increase consumer spending, and create a supportive environment for employment growth. Implications for Financial Markets: Bonds: In an increasingly hawkish status, higher interest rates generally lead to lower bond prices and higher yields.

As a result, investors who hold bonds with fixed interest rates might see a decrease in the market value of those bonds. Stocks: Should there be an increasingly aggressive monetary policy, the cost of borrowing increases with higher interest rates, potentially affecting companies' profit margins, particularly for those companies with higher debt levels. Additionally, the negative impact of a decrease in consumer spending will impact company revenue, particularly in growth and consumer discretionary stocks.

These factors will exert downward pressure on stocks as the impact on earnings of both of these factors bites into previously expected EPS. The impact on the housing market will commonly influence the pricing of related stocks, e.g., homebuilders. Whereas with a dovish viewpoint, equity markets are likely to see gains with growth; for example, technology stocks and consumer discretionary stocks may benefit.

Companies might increase capital investment in research and development or even be more likely to consider acquisitions, taking advantage of the lower cost of borrowing. Currencies: A hawkish policy usually leads to currency appreciation, making the country's currency more attractive to foreign investors. The reverse is, of course, true also, with an increasing dovish stance resulting in currency depreciation.

As currencies are traded in pairs, the implications will be somewhat dependent on more than one central bank policy. One final point worth emphasising is that the impact of central bank policy and the hawkish or dovish viewpoint, although mostly impacting on the national economy, is likely to have far-reaching effects beyond the local economy if it is from one of the major economic powers e.g. US.

The impact will spread throughout the global financial markets, including, in this case, commodity prices. Summary Both hawkish and dovish stances have significant impacts on financial markets and the broader economy. The effectiveness of either approach depends on the prevailing economic conditions and the goals of the respective central bank.

For traders and investors, understanding the subtle clues in central banks' communications about their policy stances can be vital. Hawkish signals might lead to short-term rallies in the currency but declines in bond and equity markets, while dovish signals might have the opposite effect. Being aware of these policy shifts, knowing key relevant dates of related events, sand adapting trading strategies accordingly can be a powerful tool for traders and investors alike.

Introduction The VIX Index, or Volatility Index, often referred to as the "fear gauge," measures expected future volatility in the U.S. stock market. Although it's worth noting that there are VIX variations for gold, oil, and global indices, when people discuss the VIX, they usually refer to the instrument based on the implied (forward looking rather than historical) volatility of S&P 500 index options. Broadly speaking, the VIX is widely used as an indicator of market sentiment and can signal increasing or decreasing risk depending on its direction.

This article aims to clarify how the VIX Index can inform traders about market conditions and discusses ways you can trade this instrument. What Does the VIX Index Tell Us? Measure of Volatility: The VIX calculates the market's expectations for volatility over the next 30 days.

Higher VIX values indicate higher expected volatility, while lower values may be suggestive more potential stability. Market Sentiment Indicator: Many investors view the VIX as a barometer of investor sentiment, particularly those of fear, or complacency.A rising VIX can signal increasing fear or uncertainty in the market often associated with adverse economic conditions, data or significant global events, while a falling VIX may indicate complacency or confidence that good or better times after a market shock may be likely.Such movements may be short or longer term in nature dependent of course on the underlying cause of such potential sentiment changes and the perceived longevity of related events and their implications. Non-Directional: Although theoretically the VIX doesn't necessarily correlate with market direction, its true essence is one of an indication about the expected magnitude of price movements, whether up or down.Times of uncertainty, actual or potential, can influence the likelihood of prices moving away from their current positions, thereby increasing volatility.However, it's worth emphasizing that such uncertainty is usually negative in connotation rather than positive.

This is why we often see an inverse relationship between the VIX and the S&P 500. The Inverse Relationship with the S&P500? The S&P 500 Index and the VIX Index are often described as inversely correlated.

However, it's crucial to understand the nuances and exceptions to this relationship. Generally speaking, during periods of high uncertainty or market stress, investors may use options to hedge against potential losses in their stock portfolios, driving up implied volatility, and thus the VIX. Conversely, when investors are confident, stock prices tend to rise and volatility decreases, invariably causing the VIX to drop.

Potential Exceptions and price considerations Short-term Deviations: There can be short-term periods where both the VIX and the S&P 500 move in the same direction. For instance, in a strongly trending bullish market, traders might buy calls (upside options) to leverage their gains, driving up implied volatility and the VIX along with the market. Degree of Movement: The inverse relationship doesn't necessarily imply a 1-to-1 movement (or even a defined multiple of) irrespective of the direction.

As an example, the S&P 500 might drop by 1%, but the VIX could surge by as much as 10% or more.Technical analysis may have a part to play in the degree of movement in both instruments as well as any level of continued uncertainty and implications of this going forward Volatility "Clustering": High volatility periods often cluster, meaning that a single significant drop in the S&P 500 might result in a prolonged period of high VIX values and an apparent “slowness” to drop again, even if the market actually starts recovering or appears increasingly likely it may do so. The reason for this is unclear, but logically after a significant market shock there may be prolonged period of market sensitivity before investors are prepared to believe that any ensuing recovery is sustainable. Practical Applications for Traders and Investors It is worthwhile briefly outlining the motivations and approaches as to why someone may consider trading outside that of a pure directional play.

Hedging: When the S&P 500 is doing well but the VIX starts to rise, it might be a warning sign of increasing uncertainty. Investors may choose to hedge their portfolios by buying VIX options or futures/CFDs. Market Timing: Some traders use the VIX for market timing.

For instance, an extremely high VIX value might indicate a market bottom, while a very low VIX value could suggest a market top. Pairs Trading: Sophisticated traders sometimes engage in pairs trading, going long on one index while shorting the other, aiming to profit from the reversion to the mean of the correlation between the two. How Can You Trade the VIX?

VIX Futures and Options: These derivatives allow traders to take positions based on their expectations for future changes in volatility. CFDs (contract for difference) based on the VIX futures contracts are also available om many trading platforms as an alternative. Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs): ETPs like VIX ETFs and ETNs provide a more accessible way for individual investors to gain exposure to volatility.

Again these may be available of some MT5 platforms such as the one offer through GO Marekts, who provide access to US share CFDs including ETFs. Pairs Trading with S&P 500: Traders may also consider strategies that involve trading the VIX in conjunction with the S&P 500.Tihs should be consider an approach for experienced traders only with clear strategies to action both entry and exit of such positions. Utilize Technical Analysis: Since the VIX is a tradable instrument (whatever the variation in instrument), technical indicators may still be relevant particularly key levels such as support and resistance levels or pivots.

In summary The VIX index serves as an important gauge of market volatility and sentiment and can be useful as a daily "check in" insight of current market state. Trading the VIX presents opportunities but also unique challenges and risks as well as offering some guidance on market state. In terms of trading opportunities it may be suitable for experienced traders with a solid understanding of the underlying mechanisms.

There are a few different ways to actually trade the VIX, commonly for those using MetaTrader platforms such as you would with GO Markets, a CFD is available that is based on the VIX futures contract.

A currency peg is a policy in which a country's government or central bank fixes the exchange rate of its currency to the value of another currency or a basket of currencies. The pegged rate is enforced by the country's central bank, which will exchange currency at that rate. Commonly, countries that participate in this practice prefer to peg their currency to the US dollar, as it is seen as a stable currency globally.

There are also a few examples of a Euro peg, including the Danish krona, which made the decision not to adopt the Euro as its currency. Currency pegs can be temporary or long-term; for example, the CHF (Swiss franc) was pegged to the Euro between 2011-15. Another well-known and often-discussed example of a currency peg is the connection between the Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) and the US Dollar (USD).

Since 1983, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has maintained a peg, allowing the HKD to trade within a narrow range of 7.75 to 7.85 to the USD. The HKMA commits to buying or selling HKD at this range to maintain the peg. Implications of currency pegs.

There are potential challenges as well as the perceived advantages associated with currency pegs, These include: Stability: For the Pegging Country: A currency peg can provide stability to a country's currency, especially if it's pegged to a stable currency like the USD. This can help reduce inflation and foster a predictable trading environment. For Global Trading Partners: Businesses and investors in both the pegging country and its trading partners may enjoy reduced currency risk.

Interest Rate Impact: Alignment with Pegged Currency: The interest rates in the pegging country often have to align with those of the currency to which it is pegged, which may impact the respective central bank's ability to conduct independent monetary policy. Foreign Exchange Reserves: Need for Ample Reserves: Maintaining a peg requires the central bank to have substantial foreign exchange reserves to buy or sell its currency as needed to retain its value within the range of any currency peg. Potential for Currency Speculation: Vulnerability to Attacks: If traders believe that the peg is unsustainable, they might bet against it, leading to potential financial crises if the central bank's reserves are depleted.

Limited Trading Opportunities: A peg can mean less volatility and fewer opportunities to profit from large swings in the currency's value for traders. Effects on Trade Balance: Competitive Advantage or Disadvantage: A peg might make a country's exports more competitive (if pegged low) or less competitive (if pegged high), impacting trade balances. Potential for Economic Misalignment: There may be challenges in adjusting to major economic events as a peg might prevent a currency from adjusting to economic changes locally or globally, potentially exacerbating economic downturns or bubbles.

Summary A currency peg is a significant monetary tool that can bring stability but also comes with trade-offs and potential risks. It can affect everything from inflation to interest rates, trade balances, and investor behaviour. For traders, pegged currencies may limit opportunities compared to those of the general foreign exchange market pairs.