In yesterday’s session, the AUDUSD pair experienced a decline of nearly 1%, erasing the gains it had achieved over the past few days. This retracement arrives as the USD displays signs of renewed strength ahead of an upcoming speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Market participants are eagerly awaiting Powell's remarks for to see if he drops any hints on the Fed’s plans.
As anticipation builds for Powell's speech, scheduled for tomorrow, market observers are on high alert for any indications regarding the trajectory of interest rates. They are particularly keen on understanding whether the Fed's rate hikes are done or if further hikes are on the cards. Additionally, the market will scrutinise the language Powell uses, gauging its hawkishness or dovishness to decode the central bank's future strategies.
These cues will aid in forecasting potential rate cuts once inflation subsides to desired levels. Technically, the AUDUSD pair hit a recent low of 0.63642 on August 17th, marking its lowest point since November 2022. There is considerable downside before finding the next significant support level around 0.62.
On the 1-hour timeframe, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is edging close to oversold conditions, while there appears to be a minor horizontal support level holding price just above 0.64. Furthermore, the recent breach of a short-term diagonal support trend is worth noting. The market will closely monitor whether this trend can be reestablished over the coming days.
Overall, as the USD gains momentum leading up to Powell's speech, his comments will likely steer the pair's immediate movements.
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