數字貨幣 CFDs 零隔夜倉息

2025 has seen a material decline in the fortunes of the greenback. A technical structure breakdown early in the year was followed by a breach of the 200-day moving average (MA) at the end of Q1. The index then entered correction territory, printing a three-year low at the end of Q2.

Since then, we have seen attempts to build a technical base, including a re-test of the end-of-June lows in mid-September. However, buying pressure has not been strong enough to push price back above the technically critical and psychologically important 100 level.

What the levels suggest from here

As things stand, the index remains more than 10% lower for 2025. On this technical view, the index may revisit the 96 area. However, technical levels can fail and outcomes depend on multiple factors.

US dollar index

The key question for 2026

The key question remains: are we likely to see further losses in the early part of next year and beyond, or will current support hold?

We cannot assess the US dollar in isolation and any outlook is shaped by internal and global factors, not least its relative strength versus other major currencies. Many of these drivers are interrelated, but four potential headwinds stand out for any US dollar recovery. Collectively, they may keep downside pressure in play.

Four headwinds for any US dollar recovery

1. The US dollar as a safe-haven trade

One scenario where US dollar support has historically been evident is during major global events, slowdowns and market shocks. However, the more muted response of the US dollar during risk-off episodes this year suggests a shift away from the historical norm, with fewer sustained US dollar rallies.

Instead, throughout 2025, some investors appeared to favour gold, and at other times, FX and even equities, rather than into the US dollar. If this change in behaviour persists through 2026, it could make recovery harder, even if global economic pressure builds over the year ahead.

2. US versus global trade

Trade policy is harder to measure objectively, and outcomes can be difficult to predict. That said, trade battles driven by tariffs on US imports are often viewed as an additional potential drag on the US dollar.

The impact may be twofold if additional strain is placed on the US economy through:

• a slowdown in global trade volumes as impacted countries seek alternative trade relationships, with supply chain distortions that may not favour US growth
  
• pressure on US corporate profit margins as tariffs lift costs for importers
  

3. Removal of quantitative tightening

The Fed formally halted its balance sheet reduction, quantitative tightening (QT), as of 1 December 2025, ending a program that shrank assets by roughly US$2.4 trillion since mid-2022.

Traditionally, ending QT is seen as marginally negative for the US dollar because it stops the withdrawal of liquidity, can ease global funding conditions, and may reduce the scarcity that can support dollar demand. Put simply, more dollars in the system can soften the currency’s support at the margin, although outcomes have varied historically and often depend on broader financial conditions.

4. Interest rate differential

Interest rate differential (IRD) is likely to be a primary driver of US dollar strength, or otherwise, in the months ahead. The latest FOMC meeting delivered the expected 0.25% cut, with attention on guidance for what may come next.

Even after a softer-than-expected CPI print, markets have been reluctant to price aggressive near-term easing. At the time of writing, less than a 20% chance of a January cut is priced in, and it may be March before we see the next move.

The Fed is balancing sticky inflation against a jobs market under pressure, with the headline rate back at levels last seen in 2012. The practical takeaway is that a more accommodative stance may add to downward pressure on the US dollar.

Current expectations imply around two rate cuts through 2026, with the potential for further easing beyond that, broadly consistent with the median projections shown in the chart below. These are forecasts rather than guarantees, and they can shift as economic data and policy guidance evolve.

Donald Trump has officially declared the Maduro regime in Venezuela a foreign terrorist organisation and ordered a "total and complete blockade" of the country's sanctioned oil tankers.

The U.S. has positioned 11 warships in the Caribbean to enforce the blockade, which could remove 400,000 to 500,000 barrels daily from global supply.

The move sent crude prices jumping over 2% and sparked renewed concerns about supply stability heading into 2026.

White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles succinctly summarised the situation as: “Trump wants to keep on blowing boats up until Maduro cries uncle."

Brent crude jumped 2.4% to $60.33 per barrel, while WTI climbed 2.6% to $56.69.

If crude maintains its $60 per barrel price, analysts project the blockade, combined with potential Russian sanctions, could push prices toward $70 as Venezuela's already-devastated economy faces collapse.

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Bank of Japan to Hike Rates to Highest Level in Decades

The Bank of Japan is set to raise interest rates to their highest level in three decades this Friday, with Governor Kazuo Ueda expected to lift the benchmark rate from 0.5% to 0.75%.

While modest by global standards, this marks a landmark step in Japan's departure from decades of near-zero rates and unconventional easing.

The decision comes amid significant market turbulence. Japanese government bond yields have surged, with 30-year bonds hitting record highs and 10-year yields reaching 19-year peaks.

The volatility stems partly from concerns under new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who recently approved a $118 billion stimulus package with over 60% financed through borrowing.

While Friday's hike appears certain, policymakers have signalled caution as they push rates toward levels estimated between 1% and 2.5%.

Ueda's post-meeting press conference will be closely watched for signals about future increases.

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Micron Forecasts Blowout Earnings on Booming AI Market

Micron Technology is projecting second-quarter earnings of $8.42 per share, nearly double Wall Street's $4.78 estimate.

Micron shares surged 7% in after-hours trading as markets reacted to the news that the AI-driven memory chip race is showing no signs of slowing.

As one of only three major suppliers of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips alongside SK Hynix and Samsung, Micron sits at a chokepoint in AI infrastructure.

The HBM specialised chips are essential for training and deploying generative AI models, and current demand is dramatically outpacing supply.

CEO Sanjay Mehrotra revealed that supply tightness will extend beyond 2026, with Micron expecting to fulfil only 50-70% of key customer demand in the medium term.

Micron projects revenue of $18.70 billion this quarter versus analyst estimates of $14.20 billion. The company has retooled their operations toward AI applications, even dissolving its consumer "Crucial" brand to concentrate on AI data centre demand.

HBM chips are now the bottleneck in AI system performance, and suppliers who can deliver at scale have the potential to capture large amounts of value over the coming years.

As the final trading days of December approach, investors are assessing whether seasonal factors may again influence year-end price action.

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• The Santa Claus rally has delivered gains in 70 of the past 97 years, but history is no guarantee.
• Technology, retail, and consumer discretionary sectors have historically led with 1.9-2.1 per cent average gains during the Christmas period.
• Recent market rallies, AI weariness, and a hawkish Fed put doubts around the Santa Rally.

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The seven-day Santa rally window runs from 24 December through 5 January 2026.

This period has historically outperformed average market conditions, driven by holiday optimism, thin trading volumes, year-end bonus spending, tax-loss completions, and institutional portfolio rebalancing.

5 assets in focus this Christmas

1. Technology stocks

Technology stocks have historically been standout performers during the Santa rally period, averaging gains of 2.1 per cent across the seven-day window, although results vary significantly year to year.

The Nasdaq Composite typically posts stronger returns than broader indices, with an 82 per cent historical win rate for December-January performance.

However, tech stocks do currently face a challenging setup. The Nasdaq gained 19 per cent year-to-date (YTD) but has come under pressure in recent months, with AI-related stocks experiencing sentiment dips.

Key drivers:

• E-commerce momentum: Black Friday 2025 spending hit a record US$11.8 billion, with sustained demand through December as last-minute purchases drive revenue for Amazon and digital payment processors.
• Holiday infrastructure: Cloud computing, semiconductors, and digital payments capture the backend of holiday spending surges, benefiting from both retail transactions and year-end enterprise spending.‍
• Concentration risk: Five companies (Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon) account for 30 per cent of major index returns. Down periods for these companies, as seen during recent AI-sentiment-driven volatility, could bring down the sector as a whole.

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Source: Statista

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2. Gold

Gold enters one of its strongest seasonal periods from mid-December through February, having posted gains every year since 2015 during this window. 

The gold price is maintaining strength throughout December despite the dollar's resilience, positioning well as the Christmas jewellery season peaks.

Key drivers:

• Seasonal jewellery demand: Approximately two-thirds of annual gold production flows into jewellery fabrication. Christmas, Lunar New Year (February 2026), and the Indian wedding season create regular buying patterns as merchants stock up in December.
• Dollar weakness patterns: December has historically been the dollar's weakest month, with negative bias from 22 December onwards. Gold's inverse correlation to the dollar could provide upside momentum during this period.
• Real yields environment: With the Fed cutting rates to 3.5-3.75 per cent while inflation remains around 3 per cent, real yields stay relatively low, potentially supporting higher gold valuations.‍
• Central bank accumulation: Continued central bank purchases and year-end institutional portfolio rebalancing could provide additional support.

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3. EUR/USD

December has historically been the most bullish month for EUR/USD, with the world's most-traded currency pair posting an average return of +1.2 per cent over the past 50 years. 

The US dollar regularly shows clear weakness during the Santa rally period, particularly from 22 December onwards. However, the Fed's hawkish rate cut has provided some dollar support this year.

Key drivers:

• Holiday liquidity dynamics: Lower institutional trading volumes during the holiday period reduce dollar support as retail traders and smaller participants dominate. Thin markets can amplify moves in either direction.
• Year-end rebalancing: European and Asian investors often repatriate funds or rebalance portfolios at year-end, creating demand for non-dollar currencies that typically support EUR and AUD against USD.‍
• Dollar strength from hawkish Fed: The Fed's December rate cut came with guidance of fewer cuts in 2026. This has kept the dollar elevated despite lower rates, possibly limiting the ability of EUR/USD seasonal patterns to influence the market.

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4. Retail stocks

Consumer discretionary and retail stocks historically outperform during the holiday period, with the sector averaging 1.9-2.1 per cent gains during the Santa rally window. Holiday shopping accounts for 30-40 per cent of annual retail revenue for many companies, making this period crucial for full-year performance.

Key drivers:

• Record holiday traffic: A record 202.9 million consumers shopped during the Thanksgiving-Cyber Monday weekend, up from 197 million in 2024. November spending surged 3.8 per cent year-over-year, with total holiday spending projected to exceed US$1 trillion for the first time.
• High-income shoppers trend: Value-oriented retailers (TJX, Five Below) and those with strong omnichannel presence are capturing a disproportionate share of value over retailers targeting low-middle income earners.
• Post-Fed tailwind: The December rate cut provides marginal relief through lower borrowing costs, potentially extending holiday spending into late December as credit becomes more accessible.

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5. Bitcoin

Bitcoin's December performance has been highly inconsistent, with a median return of -3.2 per cent, contrasting with traditional Santa rally patterns. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around US$87,500, down approximately 30 per cent from its October all-time high of US$126,210. 

However, there are signals that the historically volatile asset could see a Santa-led bounce this year.

Key drivers:

• Institutional infrastructure in place: More than US$120 billion is now held in spot Bitcoin ETFs, which provides a framework that could support capital flows if risk sentiment improves, although inflows are not assured.
• Pro-crypto policy expectations: Discussion around potential developments such as a US strategic Bitcoin reserve and the CLARITY Act could influence sentiment going into 2026, although outcomes remain uncertain.‍
• Four-year cycle inflection point: The recent sell-off came roughly 18 months after the most recent Bitcoin halving, a point linked to turning points in some past cycles, with the four-year narrative potentially influencing market behaviour.

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Risks to watch

• The December Fed meeting delivered a 25 basis point cut, but the hawkish tone has set expectations for fewer rate cuts in 2026.
• The Nasdaq's 19 per cent YTD gain has pushed valuations to elevated levels as AI-stock sentiment begins to dip. 
• Five companies account for 30 per cent of index returns, placing portfolio concentration at concerning levels.
• Reduced holiday liquidity amplifies both moves and risks. Thin trading volumes can create exaggerated reactions to headlines, particularly around geopolitical events or economic data.

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Is Santa coming to town?

The Santa Claus rally remains one of the better-known seasonal patterns in financial markets, but a historical hit rate of around 72 per cent also implies meaningful years where it does not play out.

A more balanced way to view the Santa rally window is as one input among many. 

Seasonal observations can be considered alongside technical levels, fundamental drivers, and risk management — particularly given how quickly sentiment can change in thin holiday conditions.

And, if you can, take time away from the screens and enjoy the break.