What’s going to move the dial to start 2025?

Every trader has had that moment where a seemingly perfect trade goes astray. 

You see a clean chart on the screen, showing a textbook candle pattern; it seems as though the market planets have aligned, and so you enthusiastically jump into your trade.

But before you even have time to indulge in a little self-praise at a job well done,  the market does the opposite of what you expected, and your stop loss is triggered.

This common scenario, which we have all unfortunately experienced, raises the question: What separates these “almost” trades from the truly higher-probability setups? 

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The State of Alignment

A high-probability setup isn’t necessarily a single signal or chart pattern. It is the coming together of several factors in a way that can potentially increase the likelihood of a successful trade. 

When combined, six interconnected layers can come together to form the full “anatomy” of a higher-probability trading setup:

• Context
• Structure
• Confluence
• Timing
• Management 
• Psychology

When more of these factors are in place, the greater the (potential) probability your trade will behave as expected.

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Market Context 

When we explore market context, we are looking at the underlying background conditions that may help some trading ideas thrive, and contribute to others failing.

Regime Awareness

Every trading strategy you choose to create has a natural set of market circumstances that could be an optimum trading environment for that particular trading approach.

For example:

• Trending regimes may favour momentum or breakout setups.
• Ranging regimes may suit mean-reversion or bounce systems.
• High-volatility regimes create opportunity but demand wider stops and quicker management.

Investing time considering the underlying market regime may help avoid the temptation to force a trending system into a sideways market.

Simply looking at the slope of a 50-period moving average or the width of a Bollinger Band can suggest what type of market is currently in play. 

Sentiment Alignment

If risk sentiment shifts towards a specific (or a group) of related assets, the technical picture is more likely to change to match that. 

For example, if the USD index is broadly strengthening as an underlying move, then looking for long trades in EURUSD setups may end up fighting headwinds.

Setting yourself some simple rules can help, as trading against a potential tidal wave of opposite price change in a related asset is not usually a strong foundation on which to base a trading decision.

Key Reference Zones

Context also means the location of the current price relative to levels or previous landmarks.

Some examples include:

• Weekly highs/lows
• Prior session ranges, e.g. the Asian high and low as we move into the European session
• Major “round” psychological numbers (e.g., 1.10, 1000)
  
  

A long trading setup into these areas of market importance may result in an overhead resistance, or a short trade into a potential area of support may reduce the probability of a continuation of that price move before the trade even starts.

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Market Structure 

Structure is the visual rhythm of price that you may see on the chart. It involves the sequences of trader impulses and corrections that end up defining the overall direction and the likelihood of continuation:

• Uptrend: Higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL)
• Downtrend: Lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL)
• Transition: Break in structure often followed by a retest of previous levels.

A pullback in an uptrend followed by renewed buying pressure over a previous price swing high point may well constitute a higher-probability buy than a random candle pattern in the middle of nowhere.

Compression and Expansion

Markets move through cycles of energy build-up and release. It is a reflection of the repositioning of asset holdings, subtle institutional accumulation, or a response to new information, and may all result in different, albeit temporary, broad price scenarios.

• Compression: Evidenced by a tightening range, declining ATR, smaller candles, and so suggesting a period of indecision or exhaustion of a previous price move, 
• Expansion: Evidenced by a sudden breakout, larger candle bodies, and a volume spike, is suggestive of a move that is now underway.
  
  

A breakout that clears a liquidity zone often runs further, as ‘trapped’ traders may further fuel the move as they scramble to reposition.

A setup aligned with such liquidity flows may carry a higher probability than one trading directly into it.

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Confluence 

Confluence is the art of layering independent evidence to create a whole story. Think of it as a type of “market forensics” — each piece of confirmation evidence may offer a “better hand’ or further positive alignment for your idea.

There are three noteworthy types of confluence:

1. Technical Confluence – Multiple technical tools agree with your trading idea:

• Moving average alignment (e.g., 20 EMA above 50 EMA) for a long trade
• A Fibonacci retracement level is lining up with a previously identified support level.
• Momentum is increasing on indicators such as the MACD.

2. Multi-Timeframe Confluence – Where a lower timeframe setup is consistent with a higher timeframe trend. If you have alignment of breakout evidence across multiple timeframes, any move will often be strengthened by different traders trading on different timeframes, all jumping into new trades together.

3. Volume Confluence – Any directional move, if supported by increasing volume, suggests higher levels of market participation. Whereas falling volume may be indicative of a lesser market enthusiasm for a particular price move.

Confluence is not about clutter on your chart. Adding indicators, e.g., three oscillators showing the same thing, may make your chart look like a work of art, but it offers little to your trading decision-making and may dilute action clarity.

Think of it this way: Confluence comes from having different dimensions of evidence and seeing them align. Price, time, momentum, and participation (which is evidenced by volume) can all contribute.

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Timing & Execution 

An alignment in context and structure can still fail to produce a desired outcome if your timing is not as it should be. Execution is where higher probability traders may separate themselves from hopeful ones.

Entry Timing

• Confirmation: Wait for the candle to close beyond the structure or level. Avoid the temptation to try to jump in early on a premature breakout wick before the candle is mature.
• Retests: If the price has retested and respected a breakout level, it may filter out some false breaks that we will often see.
• Then act: Be patient for the setup to complete. Talking yourself out of a trade for the sake of just one more candle” confirmation may, over time, erode potential as you are repeatedly late into trades.

Session & Liquidity Windows

Markets breathe differently throughout the day as one session rolls into another. Each session's characteristics may suit different strategies. 

For example:

• London Open: Often has a volatility surge; Range breaks may work well.
• New York Overlap: Often, we will see some continuation or reversal of morning trends.
• Asian Session: A quieter session where mean-reversion or range trading approaches may do well

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Trade Management 

Managing the position well after entry can turn probability into realised profit, or if mismanaged, can result in losses compounding or giving back unrealised profit to the market. 

Pre-defined Invalidation

Asking yourself before entry: “What would the market have to do to prove me wrong?” could be an approach worth trying. 

This facilitates stops to be placed logically rather than emotionally. If a trade idea moves against your original thinking, based on a change to a state of unalignment, then considering exit would seem logical. 

Scaling & Partial Exits

High-probability trade entries will still benefit from dynamic exit approaches that may involve partial position closes and adaptive trailing of your initial stop.

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Trader Psychology 

One of the most important and overlooked components of a higher-probability setup is you.

It is you who makes the choices to adopt these practices, and you who must battle the common trading “demons” of fear, impatience, and distorted expectation.

Let's be real, higher-probability trades are less common than many may lead you to believe. 

Many traders destroy their potential to develop any trading edge by taking frequent low-probability setups out of a desire to be “in the market.” 

It can take strength to be inactive for periods of time and exercise that patience for every box to be ticked in your plan before acting.

Measure “You” performance

Each trade you take becomes data and can provide invaluable feedback. You can only make a judgment of a planned strategy if you have followed it to the letter. 

Discipline in execution can be your greatest ally or enemy in determining whether you ultimately achieve positive trading outcomes.

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Bringing It All Together – The Setup Blueprint

Final Thoughts

Higher-probability setups are not found but are constructed methodically. 

A trader who understands the “higher-probability anatomy” is less likely to chase trades or feel the need to always be in the market. They will see merit in ticking all the right boxes and then taking decisive action when it is time to do so. 

It is now up to you to review what you have in place now, identify gaps that may exist, and commit to taking action!

Bitcoin has now outlasted the peak of all its previous four-year cycles.

For over a decade, every Bitcoin cycle has followed the same sequence: consolidation, breakout, mania, crash. Rinse and repeat.

Timeline-wise, we should be at the post-mania inflection point, waiting for the seemingly inevitable crash.

Yet unlike previous runs, this cycle never saw its “mania phase.” Instead, Bitcoin has spent the past year grinding sideways, touching new all-time highs without a euphoric blow-off top that defined previous cycles.

The fact that this euphoria period never materialised brings into question whether this cycle still has room to run, or has the market simply matured past the point of mania-driven peaks?

The Historical Four-Year Pattern

The traditional Bitcoin cycle was simple. Every four years, a halving event would reduce the block reward (amount of new Bitcoin being created) by half, creating a supply shock that triggered major bull markets.

The 2013 cycle, the 2017 cycle, and the 2021 cycle all followed this script. Each halving was followed by a 3-to 9-month growth period, then a full-on mania period, before topping out 12 to 18 months after the event.

Following the most recent halving in April 2024, Bitcoin experienced five months of sideways consolidation, then hinted at making its anticipated breakout into mania after the US election… but quickly returned to sideways consolidation for the next year.

We have seen new ATHs and the price has made some notable gains during the period, but the overall momentum has been much weaker.

This failure to repeat the frenzies of the past three cycles has brought into question how much influence the Bitcoin halving truly has on the market anymore.

No Longer a Supply Shock

In previous cycles, the halving created a situation where prices had to rise to clear the same dollar amount of miner expenses (who were now earning half the Bitcoin).

Bitcoin miners would simply not sell until the price reached a certain level, creating a supply shock that would drive prices higher.

Miners still do this today; however, the market’s maturation and the institutional adoption of Bitcoin have dampened the impact.

Selling off Bitcoin is no longer a balancing act where miners hold influence over price. The market has deep liquidity that can handle significant flows in either direction.

Institutional ETFs routinely purchase more Bitcoin in a single day than miners produce in a month. 

The supply reduction that once drove dramatic price movements is now easily absorbed by a market with institutional buyers providing constant demand.

If the Halving Isn't Driving Cycles, What Is?

The overriding narrative is that the Bitcoin cycle is now tied to the global liquidity cycle.

If you plot the Global M2 Money Supply versus Bitcoin on a year-on-year basis, you can see that every Bitcoin top has correlated with the peaks of Global M2 liquidity growth.

This isn't unique to Bitcoin. The Gold price has closely mirrored the rate of Global M2 expansion for decades.

When central banks flood the system with liquidity, capital tends to move into stores of value or high-risk assets. When they drain liquidity, those same assets tend to retreat.

However, this is a correlation; these relationships may change and should not be relied upon as indicators of future performance.

Is the Dollar Just Getting Weaker?

The U.S. Dollar Strength Index tells the other side of this liquidity story. Bitcoin versus the dollar year-on-year has been almost perfectly inversely correlated. 

Simply put, as fiat currencies lose purchasing power, “hard” assets like Bitcoin and Gold start to appreciate. Not because of improved fundamentals, but because the currencies they are paired against are simply worth less.

The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Beyond the charts and patterns, there is also the psychological notion that the four-year cycle persists precisely because people believe it will.

People have been conditioned by three complete cycles to expect Bitcoin to peak somewhere between 400 and 600 days after a halving.

This collective belief shapes behaviour: traders take profits, investors take fewer risks, and retail enthusiasm wanes. The prophecy fulfils itself.

When everyone believes Bitcoin should peak 18 months after a halving, the combined selling pressure can create exactly that outcome — regardless of whether the underlying driver still exists.

The current market weakness, with Bitcoin dropping over 20% from its October record high, occurred almost precisely at this 18-month mark.

Is This Cycle Built Different?

Despite this on-cue sell-off, this cycle still has the potential to break away from the historical four-year pattern. 

Increased ETF adoption by institutional investors has brought in higher quality and consistent ownership of Bitcoin.

Unlike retail traders, who often panic-sell during corrections, institutional holders tend to maintain their positions through volatility.

For example, Michael Saylor’s high-profile MicroStrategy fund has continued to purchase Bitcoin through market weakness. Recently reporting a purchase of 8,178 BTC at an average price of $102,171.

Another hard indicator that diverges from previous cycle peaks is the amount of Bitcoin being held on centralised exchanges.

The current amount of BTC on CEXs is unusually low. This pattern is generally seen closer to cycle lows, rather than peaks.

Other factors supporting the break of the four-year mould are coming out of the Whitehouse. 

A comprehensive regulatory framework through the CLARITY Act represents structural changes and boundaries for regulatory bodies that didn't exist in previous cycles.

And the move to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve will see all government-held forfeited Bitcoin (approximately $30 billion worth) transferred into a government reserve, signalling Bitcoin as a strategic asset like Gold and oil.

Bitcoin Has Finally Grown Up

The four-year cycle has been a useful heuristic, but heuristics break down when conditions change. Institutional buyers, regulatory clarity, and strategic reserves represent genuinely new conditions historical patterns don’t account for.

At the same time, dismissing the cycle entirely would be premature. The self-fulfilling aspect means it retains predictive power even if the original cause has weakened. 

Market participants act on the pattern they've learned, and their actions create the pattern they expect.

Perhaps the real insight is that the Bitcoin market cycles never had just one cause. They were always the result of multiple overlapping forces — programmed scarcity, liquidity conditions, sentiment, self-reinforcing expectations.

The cycle shifts character as some forces strengthen and others weaken. But whether the forces have shifted enough to break the four-year trend is yet to be determined. 

The fundamental indicators show this cycle may have some life, but the psychological power of the four-year pattern could push it to another, predictable end.

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One of the most impactful books I’ve ever read is “The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People: Powerful Lessons in Personal Change” by Stephen Covey. 

When it was first published in 1989, it quickly became one of the most influential works in business and personal development literature, and retained its place on bestseller lists for the next couple of decades.

The compelling, comprehensive, and structured framework for personal growth presented in the book has undoubtedly inspired many to rethink how they organise their lives and priorities, both professionally and personally.

Although its lessons were originally designed for self-improvement and positive structured growth, the underlying principles are universal, making them easily transferable to many areas of life, including trading.

In this article, you will explore how each of Covey’s seven original habits can be reframed within a trading context, in an attempt to offer a structure that may help guide you to becoming the best trader you can be.

1. Be Proactive

Being proactive means recognising that we have the power to choose our responses and to shape outcomes through appropriate preparation with subsequent planned reactions.

In a Trading Context:

For traders, this means anticipating potential problems before they arise and putting measures in place to better mitigate risk. 

Rather than waiting for issues to unfold, the proactive trader identifies potential areas of concern and ensures that they have access to the right tools, resources, and people to prepare effectively, whatever the market may throw at them.

What This Means for You:

Being proactive may involve seeking out quality education and services, maintaining access to accurate and timely market information, continually assessing risk and opportunity, and having systems to manage those risks within defined limits.

Consequences of Non-Action:

Inadequate preparation and a lack of defined systems often lead to poor trading decisions and less-than-desired outcomes. 

Failing to assess risk properly can result in significant and often avoidable losses. 

By contrast, a proactive approach builds resilience and confidence, ensuring that when challenges arise, your response is measured and less emotionally driven by what is happening on the screen in front of you.

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2. Begin with the End in Mind

Covey's second habit is about defining purpose. It suggests that effective people are more likely to achieve what is possible if they start with a clear understanding of their destination, so every action aligns with that ultimate vision.

In a Trading Context:

Ask yourself: What is my true purpose for trading? 

Many traders may instinctively answer “to make money,” but money is surely only a vehicle to achieve something else in your world for you and those you care about, not a purpose per se. 

You need to clarify what trading success really means for you. 

Is it a greater degree of financial independence through increased income or capital growth, the freedom of having more time, achieving a personal challenge of becoming an effective trader, or a combination of any of these?

What This Means to You:

Try framing your purpose as, “I must become a better trader so that I can…” and complete a list with your genuine reasons for tackling the market and its challenges. 

This helps you establish meaningful short-term development goals that keep you moving toward your vision. Keep that purpose visible, as a note near your trading screen that reminds you why you are doing this.

Consequences of Non-Action:

Traders with a clearly defined purpose are more likely to stay disciplined and consistent. 

Those without one often drift, chasing short-term gains without direction. There is ample evidence that formalising your development in whatever context through goal setting can significantly increase the likelihood of success. Why would trading be any different?

Surely the bottom-line question to ask yourself is, “Am I willing to risk my potential by trading without purpose?”

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3. Put First Things First

This habit is about time management and prioritisation. This involves focusing your efforts and energy on what truly matters. As part of the exploration of this concept, Covey emphasised distinguishing between what is important and what is merely urgent.

In a Trading Context:

Trading demands commitment, learning, and reflection. 

It is not just about screen time but about using that time effectively. 

Managing activities to ensure your effort is spent wisely on planning, measuring, journaling and performance evaluation, and refining systems, accordingly, are all critical to sustaining both improvements in results and balance.

What This Means to You:

Traders often believe they need to spend more time trading when what they really need is to focus on better time allocation. 

It is logical to suggest that prioritising activities that can often contribute directly to improvement, such as system testing, reviewing performance, analysing results, and refining your strategy, is worthwhile. 

These high-value tasks can help traders focus their time more deliberately and systematically.

Consequences of Non-Action:

If you fail to control your trading time effectively, you will be more likely to spend much of it on low-impact activities that produce little progress. 

Over time, this not only hurts your results but also reduces the real “hourly value” of your trading effort. 

In business terms, and of course, you should be treating your trading as you would any business activity; poor prioritisation can inflate your costs and diminish your potential trading outcomes.

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4. Think Win: Win

Covey's fourth habit encouraged an attitude of mutual benefit, where seeking solutions that facilitate positive outcomes for all parties. 

In a Trading Context:

In trading, this concept must be adapted to suggest that developing a mindset that recognises every well-executed plan as a win, even when an individual trade results in a loss.

Some trading ideas will simply not work out, and so some losses are inevitable, but if they remain within defined limits, they should not be viewed as failures but rather as a successful adherence to a trading plan. In the aim of developing consistency in action, and the widely held belief that this is one of the cornerstones of effective trading, then it surely is a win to fulfil this.

So, in simple terms, the real “win” lies in a combination of maintaining discipline, following your system, and controlling risk beyond just looking at the P/L of a single trade.

What This Means to You:

Building and trading clear, unambiguous systems that you follow consistently has got to be the goal.

This process produces reliable data that you can later analyse and subsequently use to refine specific strategies and personal performance.

When you do this, every outcome, whether profit or loss, can serve as valuable feedback. 

For example, a controlled loss that fits your plan is proof that your system works and that you are protecting your capital. 

Alternatively, a trailing stop strategy, which means you exit trades in a timely way and give less profit back to the market, provides positive feedback that your system has merit in achieving outcomes. 

Consequences of Non-Action:

Without this mindset shift, traders can become emotionally reactive, interpreting normal drawdowns as personal defeats. 

This fosters loss aversion and other biases that can erode decision-making quality if left unchecked. Through the process of redefining “winning,” you are potentially safeguarding both your capital and, importantly, your trading confidence (a key component of trading discipline).

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5. Seek First to Understand and Then Take Action

Covey's fifth habit emphasises empathy, the act of listening and aiming to fully understand before responding. In trading, this principle translates to understanding the market environment before taking any action.

In a Trading Context:

Many traders act impulsively, driven by excitement or fear, which often results in entering trades without taking into account the full context of what is happening in the market, and/or the potential short-term influences on sentiment that may increase risk. 

This “minimalisation bias,” defined as acting on limited information, will rarely produce consistent results. Instead, adopt a process that begins with observation and comprehension.

What This Means to You:

Establishing a daily pre-trading routine is critical. This may include a review of key markets, sentiment indicators, and potential catalysts for change, such as imminent key data releases. Understanding what the market is telling you before you decide what to do is the aim of having this sort of daily agenda. 

This approach may not only improve trade selection but also enable you to get into a state of psychological readiness that can facilitate decision-making quality throughout the session.

Consequences of Non-Action:

Failing to prepare for the trading day ahead can mean not only exposing yourself to unnecessary risk but also arguably being more likely to miss potential opportunities. 

A trader who acts without understanding is vulnerable both psychologically and financially. Conversely, being forewarned is being forearmed. When you aim to understand markets first before any type of trading activity, your actions are more likely to be deliberate, grounded, and more effective.

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6. Synergise

Synergy in Covey's model means valuing differences and combining the strengths of those around you to create outcomes greater than the sum of their parts.

In a Trading Context:

In trading, synergy refers to the integration of multiple systems and disciplines that work together. This includes your plan, your record keeping and performance management processes, your time management, and your emotional balance. 

No single system is enough; success comes from the synergy of elements that support and inform one another.

What This Means to You:

Integrating learning and measurement is an integral part of your trading development process. Journaling, for example, allows you to assess not only your technical performance but also your behavioural consistency. 

This self-awareness allows you to refine your plan and so helps you operate with greater confidence. 

The synergy between rational analysis and emotional composure is what is more likely to lead to consistently sound trading decisions.

Consequences of Non-Action:

When logic and emotion are out of balance, decision-making will inevitably suffer. 

If your systems are incomplete, ambiguous, or poorly connected to the reality of your current level of understanding, competence and confidence, your results are likely to be inconsistent. Building synergy across all areas of your trading practice, including that of evaluation and development in critical trading areas, will help create cohesion, efficiency, and better performance.

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7. Sharpen the Saw

Covey's final habit focuses on continuous learning and refinement, including maintaining and improving the tools at your disposal and skills and knowledge that allow you to perform effectively.

In a Trading Context:

In trading, this translates to creating a plan to achieve ongoing, purposeful learning. 

Even small insights can make a large difference in results. Effective traders continually refine their knowledge, ask new questions, and apply lessons from experience.

What This Means to You:

Trading learning can, of course, take many forms. Discovering new indicators that may offer some confluence to price action, testing different strategies, exploring new markets, or simply understanding more about yourself as a trader. 

There is little doubt that active participation in learning keeps you engaged, adaptable and sharp. Even making sure you ask at least one question at a seminar or webinar or making a simple list at the end of each session of the "3 things I learned", can be invaluable in developing momentum for your growth as a trader.

Your record-keeping and performance metrics should generate fresh questions that can guide future development. 

Consequences of Non-Action:

Without direction in your learning, your progress is likely to slow. 

I often reference that when someone talks about trading experience in several years, this is only meaningful if there has been continuous growth, rather than staying in the same place every year (i.e. only one year of meaningful experience) 

Passive trading learning, for example, reading an article without applying, watching a webinar without engagement, or measuring without closing the circle through putting an action plan together for your development, can all lead to stagnation. 

It is fair to suggest that taking shortcuts in trading learning is likely to translate directly into shortcuts in result success. 

Active, focused development is essential for sustained improvement.

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Are You Ready for Action?

Stephen Covey’s The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People presented a timeless model for self-development and purposeful living.

When applied to trading, these same habits form a powerful framework for consistency, focus, and growth.

Trading is a pursuit that demands both technical skill and emotional strength. Success is rarely about finding the perfect system, but about developing the right habits that support consistent, rational decision-making over time. 

By integrating the principles of Covey’s seven habits into your trading practice, you create a foundation not only for profitability but for continual personal growth.