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Asia-Pacific markets start the week with sentiment shaped by China’s mid-week trade data, USDJPY (USD/JPY) as Japan’s key volatility channel, and offshore reporting influencing Australian equities. With a light domestic data calendar, global events may do most of the work on risk appetite.

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Quick facts:

• China's mid-week trade data is the primary regional risk event, with imports monitored for signs of domestic demand stability.
• USD/JPY remains the key volatility channel, which may influence Nikkei performance.
• Australian equities lack major domestic catalysts, leaving the ASX and AUD direction sensitive to China outcomes, geopolitics and US bank earnings.

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This week’s Asia-Pacific focus is less about local policy and more about the transmission channels that typically set the tone. 

For China, trade data may shape the growth narrative. 

For Japan, the USD/JPY direction may influence equity momentum. 

For Australia, offshore earnings, commodities and geopolitics may dominate in the absence of major domestic catalysts.

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China: Shanghai may be influenced by trade data

What to watch:

With mid-week Chinese trade data, markets may view the release as a gauge of whether policy support is translating into growth activity or slowing any downturn.

Key release:

• Wed 14 Jan: Trade balance, exports and imports (December) (high sensitivity)

How markets may respond:

Shanghai Composite: Stronger trade data could support sentiment, though the quality and perceived longevity of any improvement may matter. Weak imports would likely be read as continued softness in domestic demand.

Australia (resources and AUD): China trade and credit tone can feed directly into bulk commodity expectations and regional risk appetite, with potential flow-through to ASX miners and AUDUSD (AUD/USD).

Japan: FX sensitivity remains the key factor

What to watch:

With no major policy decision scheduled, and the producer price index (PPI) the main data point, Japan’s influence this week may run primarily through USD/JPY moves after US data releases, and broader geopolitical headlines, particularly as markets reopen after Monday’s public holiday.

Key releases:

• Wed 14 Jan: Preliminary machine tool orders, year on year (y/y) (low sensitivity)
• Thu 15 Jan: PPI (medium sensitivity)

How markets may respond:

USD/JPY: The pair ended last week around 158, near recent highs. Moves can be volatile; markets will watch whether the pair holds recent strength or retraces, particularly around prior trading ranges.

Nikkei 225: The index hit a record high early last week before a modest two-day pullback, then closed higher on Friday. Equity momentum, often closely tied to FX stability, may be influenced by the strength or otherwise of USD/JPY.

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Australia: offshore drivers dominate in a lighter data week

What to watch:

In the absence of significant domestic data releases, Australian markets may be more exposed to external influences. The main themes are China trade data, geopolitics, commodity prices and the start of the US earnings season, with banks in focus.

Key releases:

• Tue 13 Jan: Westpac consumer sentiment (low sensitivity)
• Thu 15 Jan: Melbourne Institute (MI) inflation expectations (low sensitivity)

How markets may respond:

ASX 200: The index has been consolidating around the 8,700–8,800 area (approx.). Local financial stocks may react to inferences made from US bank earnings. Stocks such as Macquarie Group are typically more sensitive to global market conditions and activity in investment markets, often drawing comparisons with US peers such as JPMorgan Chase (JPM).

AUDUSD (AUD/USD): AUD/USD has pulled back after last week’s gains and is trading near recent highs. Technical commentary is mixed, and price action can change quickly around major offshore events.

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Other Asia-Pacific events

South Korea is expecting an interest rate decision on Thursday. Any deviation from market expectations for no change (currently 2.5% per Trading Economics) could create a minor FX ripple in regional currency pairs.

Asia-Pacific calendar:

• Mon 12 Jan: Japan public holiday
• Tue 13 Jan: Australia consumer sentiment
• Wed 14 Jan: China trade balance, exports and imports‍
• Thu 15 Jan: Bank of Korea rate decision; Japan PPI; Australia inflation expectations

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Bottom line

• If China trade and credit data stabilise, regional equities may move higher, with AUD and ASX resource stocks among the key sensitivity points.
• If USD/JPY extends higher, the Nikkei may remain supported near highs, though FX volatility risk may increase.
• If US bank earnings disappoint, ASX financials could face near-term pressure despite limited domestic data.
• Information is accurate as at 23:00 AEDT on 11 January 2026. Economic calendar events, charts and market price data are sourced from TradingView.

So why do Magnificent 7 (Mag 7) earnings matter for Australians? Because the US earnings season is a different sport from Australia, and this is where the scoreboard sits. These seven names do not just report results, they set the tone for the Nasdaq, the S&P 500, and risk appetite more broadly. They often influence index tone, but market moves are not guaranteed and can fade or reverse.

The Aussie edge: time zones, event windows, and what gets priced

For Aussie traders, the challenge is not just timing. It's overnight gaps, liquidity, and AUD/USD currency moves that can amplify or offset the share price reaction.

Most Mag 7 results land after the US close, so the initial move often hits Sydney morning liquidity. Markets may react first to the headline numbers, then again during the call as guidance, margins and capex are digested — but the sequence varies by quarter.

What this guide gives you, company by company

For each company, we map the US Eastern Time (ET) reporting window and the Sydney time window (AEDT), flag whether it is before or after the US close, and narrow the focus to the few drivers that tend to move price.

Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL)

Apple is a “quality” print until it isn’t. The market doesn’t just ask if Apple beat. It asks whether demand and mix support the next leg.

Reporting window (confirmed)

• US reporting time: Thu, 29 Jan 2026 at 5:00 pm ET (after close)
• AU reporting time: Fri, 30 Jan 2026 at 9:00 am AEDT

Quarter snapshot (Q1)

• Projected consensus earnings per share (EPS): US$2.65
• Projected consensus revenue: US$135.86 billion (bn)
• Call focus: iPhone demand and mix, services trajectory, China and FX translation

Translation: Apple “beats” are common. The repricing comes from demand tone and margin language.

Earnings expectations and how the market will frame it

A “beat” means EPS and revenue come in above expectations, but it only really counts if demand still sounds healthy and the gross margin commentary stays straightforward.

A “meet” means results are basically in line, so attention shifts to the call. Investors will focus on iPhone product mix, how fast Services is growing, and whether any specific regions are weakening.

A “miss” often reacts more negatively if it is driven by weaker demand, because the market may treat it as the start of a trend, not a one time issue. You can also see a big price gap right after the report, before the call even starts.

Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: META)

Meta is expected to report the December quarter, which effectively turns this into a Sydney morning catalyst for Aussie traders. The headline move hits first but the second leg often comes from the call, when guidance and capex ranges get priced.

Reporting window (expected)

• US reporting time: Mon, 2 Feb 2026 at 4:05 pm ET (after close)
• AU reporting time: Tue, 3 Feb 2026 at 8:05 am AEDT

Quarter snapshot (Q4)

• Projected consensus EPS: US$8.29
• Projected consensus revenue: US$58.27 bn
• Call focus: AI infrastructure capex, Ads demand plus Reels monetisation and Reality Labs losses versus discipline

Translation: Meta can beat the print and still sell off if the Street hears “higher spend, longer payoff.”

Earnings expectations and how the market will frame it

A “beat” means EPS and revenue come in above consensus, but it only really counts if guidance stays intact and the 2026 capex and expense ranges do not get wider.

A “meet” is close enough that the stock trades the tone of the call: how broad ad demand looks, whether Reels monetisation is improving, and whether spending sounds capped or more open ended.

A “miss” can turn ugly quickly if it comes with weaker ad demand commentary or higher spend bands. With expectations already high, the initial gap can be sharp, and what happens next depends on whether guidance can steady the story.

Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOGL)

Alphabet is still an ads engine first, and a Cloud and AI story second. The market wants proof that Cloud profitability and AI spend can coexist without compressing the whole narrative.

Reporting window (confirmed)

• US reporting time: Wed, 4 Feb 2026 at 4:00 pm ET (after close)
• AU reporting time: Thu, 5 Feb 2026 at 8:00 am AEDT

Quarter snapshot (Q4)

• Projected consensus EPS: US$2.59
• Projected consensus revenue: TBC
• Call focus: Search and YouTube ads pricing and volume, Cloud growth and profitability, AI capex and monetisation signals

Translation: The market forgives a lot if ads are strong and Cloud margins keep improving.

Earnings expectations and how the market will frame it

A “beat” means EPS and revenue come in above consensus, but it only really matters if ad demand sounds broad and Cloud profitability does not slip while AI spending ramps.

A “meet” puts the call in the driver’s seat, with investors listening for ad pricing trends, YouTube momentum, and whether capex is moving higher.

A “miss” hurts most if it is driven by weaker ads, because then the market starts debating the ad cycle, not just the company.

Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN)

Amazon is two businesses stapled together in the tape. The market uses AWS to price growth and uses retail margins to price discipline.

Reporting window (expected)

• US reporting time: Mon, 2 Feb 2026 at 4:00 pm ET (after close)
• AU reporting time: Tue, 3 Feb 2026 at 8:00 am AEDT

Quarter snapshot (Q4)

• Prijected consensus EPS: US$1.97
• Projected consensus revenue: US$211.33 bn
• Call focus: AWS growth and margins, retail profitability/fulfilment efficiency, advertising momentum, capex tone

Translation: AWS decides the direction. Retail decides the confidence.

Earnings expectations and how the market will frame it

A “beat” means EPS and revenue come in above consensus, but it only really matters if AWS holds steady or speeds up again and management does not worry the Street with spending plans.

A “meet” puts AWS and margin tone front and centre, and the call does most of the work.

A “miss” usually gets hit hardest when AWS growth slows or operating income guidance disappoints, because that is what can reset the whole valuation debate.

Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: MSFT)

Reporting window (confirmed)

• US reporting time: Wed, 28 Jan 2026 at 4:00 pm ET (after close)
• AU reporting time: Thu, 29 Jan 2026 at 8:00 am AEDT

Quarter snapshot (Q2)

• Projected consensus earnings per share (EPS): US$3.86
• Projected consensus revenue: US$80.09 bn
• Call focus: Azure growth, AI monetisation (Copilot/attach), capex intensity, and margin trajectory

Translation: This is usually a cloud plus capex trade, not an EPS trade.

Earnings expectations and how the market will frame it

A “beat” means EPS and revenue come in above consensus, but it only really matters if Azure is holding up and capex does not sound unlimited. Beat plus steady cloud trends and stable margins is the upside script the tape usually rewards.

A “meet” puts the focus on the call, especially Azure growth, commercial bookings tone, and how quickly capex is stepping up.

A “miss” usually gets punished most when cloud growth slows or margins get shaky, because that is the key forward anchor the market leans on.

NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA)

Nvidia is the season’s last boss. Markets treat it like a read-through on AI capex itself. The print matters, but guidance and gross margin are the real price setters.

Reporting window (confirmed)

• US reporting time: Wed, 25 Feb 2026 at 4:20 pm ET (after close)
• AU reporting time: Thu, 26 Feb 2026 at 8:20 am AEDT

Quarter snapshot (Q4)

• Projected consensus EPS: US$1.45
• Projected consensus revenue: US$65.47 bn
• Call focus: Data centre demand versus capacity, gross margin trajectory, supply/lead times, next-quarter guide

Translation: Guidance and gross margin commentary often drive the reaction, but outcomes vary.

Earnings expectations and how the market will frame it

A “beat” means EPS and revenue come in above consensus, but it only really matters if the next quarter outlook confirms demand is still strong and the gross margin message stays solid.

A “meet” means the call becomes the decider, and the stock trades the outlook, margins, and what management says about supply conditions.

A “miss” can gap down fast, especially if it comes with softer forward guidance, because the market may take it as a clue about the broader AI spending cycle.

Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA)

Tesla’s earnings are rarely just about the quarter. The print hits first, but the real repricing usually happens when the call clarifies margins, demand, and the autonomy timeline. For Aussie traders, it’s a Sydney morning catalyst.

Reporting window (confirmed)

• US reporting time: Wed, 28 Jan 2026 at 4:05 pm ET (after close)
• AU reporting time: Thu, 29 Jan 2026 at 8:05 am AEDT

Quarter snapshot (Q4)

• Projected consensus EPS: US$0.44
• Projected consensus revenue: US$25.15 bn
• Call focus: Autonomy/robotaxi cadence, auto gross margin, pricing/demand and energy storage scale

Translation: Tesla can “beat” and still get sold if margins compress or the roadmap tone shifts.

Earnings expectations and how the market will frame it

A “beat” means EPS and revenue come in above consensus, but it only really matters if the margin story stays intact and management does not add fresh uncertainty around pricing or timing.

A “meet” is close enough that the stock trades the tone of the call, especially on demand, how durable margins look, and progress toward autonomy milestones.

A “miss” gets hit fastest when it comes with weaker margin language or softer demand comments, because the market will assume next quarter looks tougher, not easier.

Ahead of the US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) release (Friday, 9 January, 8:30 am ET/ Saturday, 10 January, 12:30 am AEDT), major US equity indices have been trading near recent highs (as at 9 January 2026).

Next week, attention is likely to shift to inflation data, any change in expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, and the start of US earnings season. Together, these may support or challenge current valuations.

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Quick facts:

US inflation: The consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) releases will test whether inflation is showing signs of persistence.

Earnings season: Major US banks report first, providing an early read on financial conditions and whether current valuations can hold up.

Gold futures: Gold futures remain close to record levels, with US dollar (USD) moves after key data a potential swing factor.

Geopolitics: Ongoing tensions remain on the radar and could influence risk sentiment.

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US inflation data: could CPI and PPI shift rate-cut expectations?

Timing: 

• CPI: Wednesday 14 January, 12:30 am AEDT
• PPI: Thursday 15 January, 12:30 am AEDT

CPI and PPI are the major scheduled macro events for the week. The updated inflation prints across consumer and producer prices will help markets assess whether disinflation is continuing or whether inflation is showing signs of persistence.

Market impact:

• A softer outcome could support risk sentiment and weigh on Treasury yields and the USD. However, reactions can vary depending on positioning and broader macro headlines, including how confidently markets price a March Fed rate cut.
• A stronger-than-expected reading may pressure equities and reinforce caution in bond markets.

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US earnings season begins with the banks

Timing: 

• JPMorgan Chase (JPM): Tuesday, 6:35 am ET 

US earnings season begins with results from major banks, providing an early snapshot of financial conditions and economic momentum. Investor attention is likely to extend beyond headline earnings to guidance and management commentary.

Market impact

• Strong results versus earnings per share (EPS) and revenue expectations could support sentiment, particularly within financials.
• Cautious forward guidance may pressure share prices and could weigh on broader indices if it becomes a common theme.
• Early bank prints can shape expectations for the wider season. Watch how the first reporters in each sector influence related stocks. 

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Gold futures to retest record highs?

After a recent pullback, gold futures are trading within striking distance of record highs again. The backdrop remains a mix of geopolitical uncertainty and the potential for data-driven moves in the USD.

Market impact

• Continued strength could support a retest of late December highs around US$4,585.
• The short-term US$4,500 area may act as a short-term technical resistance in determining whether upside momentum can hold.
• Another pullback may occur if yields rise or the USD strengthens following key data releases.

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Geopolitics remains in focus

Geopolitics remains a background market consideration, with headlines and broader policy messaging sometimes influencing risk sentiment. Markets have shown resilience to date, but sensitivity may rise if developments escalate.

Market impact

• Escalation could influence energy prices, defence stocks, and hedging assets such as gold.
• A cooling in the narrative may reduce volatility and allow markets to refocus on macro data and earnings.

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Economic calendar

All dates and times may be subject to change.