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- Why Smart Traders Trade the Price Story, Not Indicators
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- Why Smart Traders Trade the Price Story, Not Indicators
- Strip off all indicators apart from volume!
- Look at the last 10–20 candles.
- Say out loud or write the story you see in front of you — e.g., “Price was rising but slowed near resistance. After a rejection candle, sellers stepped in with conviction as evidenced by the candle formation and volume. Now it’s testing the prior support zone…”
News & analysisNews & analysisThere is an apparent enthusiasm among traders nowadays to add indicators to charts that resemble modern art more than market analysis. RSI, MACD, moving averages, stochastic oscillators, Bollinger Bands, volume profiles, and so many more.
While these tools do have their place in some strategies, many traders forget the fundamental truth: price is the source, everything else is a reaction.
Learning to read price as a narrative, showing a sequence of events that reveals the intentions and psychology of both buyers and sellers, can offer the trader a level of understanding that no single or even multiple indicators can give.
Indicators Are the Supporting Act — Not the Main Show
Don’t take from the opening that I think for one moment that Indicators are inherently bad. They can be helpful when used correctly as a way to offer some confluence to what the current price may be suggesting.
But by design, most indicators are lagging. They take price and/or volume data and apply mathematical formulas to summarise or smooth the past.
Moving Averages tell you where the price has been over the period of the MA setting. RSI shows whether the recent move has been relatively strong, even if it doesn’t tell you why. MACD illustrates the relationship between two moving averages and whether it’s changing, but not necessarily market intent.
Indicators are descriptive, not predictive. They are great at confirming bias but may not produce desired outcomes when used as your primary decision-making tool.
Price Action is a Language
Every candlestick is a snapshot of a battle occurring between buyers and sellers over a fixed point in current time. The shape and size of each bar contain a message.
A large bullish candle (close near the high) indicates strong buyer control during that bar.
A long wick above the body shows attempted movement upward but failure to hold — in other words, a rejection at higher prices.
A doji (small body, long wicks) suggests indecision — neither side in control.
And of course, the reverse is the case for a bearish candle.
These are not random. They reflect the psychology of where market participants are now and can imply a degree of confidence, hesitation, exhaustion, or even reversal pressure.
Key takeaway:
There could be merit in starting each trading session by scanning the last 5–10 candles on your timeframe and asking: Who was in control? Are they still in control? And is there evidence that this may continue or be changing on THIS candle?”
These simple questions can dramatically shift your perspective from reaction to anticipation.
What is Market Structure?
While individual candles can show immediate intent, structure reveals progression.
A trend is never a continued straight line; market structure is the pattern of swing highs and swing lows that form the underlying skeleton of a trend.
An uptrend forms higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL).
A downtrend forms lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL).
A range is where highs and lows are roughly equal, showing balance between buyers and sellers.
Structure tells you where traders are likely to place orders and whether a trend may continue.
There may be stops placed below swing lows, creating potential support. There may be profit targets at prior highs, creating potential resistance.
Breakout or breakdown movement may be triggered if there is a break of these structural key levels, e.g., a break of a previous swing high may suggest continuation.
Key takeaway:
Try to map out the most recent swing highs/lows on your chart. Ask the question: Are we building a structure to continue, or is there a potential pause point where the market may decide to shift direction? And how should this impact my decision to enter a trade or stay in an open trade?
This framing, based on current market structure, helps you align with momentum rather than chase it.
Volume: The Emotion in the Story
While price tells you what is happening, volume gives a sense of how much conviction is behind it. Volume adds depth and credibility to the story of price.
Although there are those who would be reluctant to use tick volume with Forex and CFD trading, there is still potential legitimacy in testing this in your trading.
As it is leading, not lagging, volume with price (arguably) acts as an important market gauge.
High volume on a breakout = genuine interest with evidence of market conviction
Low volume breakout = potential trap. Lack of participation means the move may fail.
Effort vs. Result = if price moves very little despite high volume, it suggests absorption — large opposing orders are sitting there.
Volume as a Visual Lie Detector?
Sometimes price action looks bullish, but volume says otherwise.
For example, A bullish engulfing candle that forms with lower-than-average volume is often a false signal. A reversal candle that forms with a volume spike often suggests a strong shift in sentiment.
To use this practically, consider a volume average line to highlight when it may be time to act (or time not to).
How to Practice Your Trading Story Creation
Through the key fundamental principles covered above, you can start training how to create a market story.
Daily Market Story Exercise:
Do this each day, and you’ll build the ability to trade based on understanding of what market psychology is telling you rather than just guesswork.
When to Use Indicators — and When to Walk Away
As stated before, indicators aren’t useless but can play an important part in confirming or disputing your market story.
They work well when they confirm what price action already suggests, smooth out trends or help define zones, and help filter conditions (e.g., only trade long above 200 EMA).
If you find yourself staring at indicator crossovers or waiting for an RSI line to tick over 30 without looking at price, you are reading the footnotes, not the full plot.
Use indicators in the background, not the foreground of your decision-making.
Summary
Price is not just data, it’s market dialogue. It’s the collective voice of every trading participant in the market NOW. It demonstrates emotion, logic, and intention.
When you learn to read the price like a story, you start anticipating rather than reacting. You reduce overtrading with a focus on price action that is compelling, not just suggestive. And arguably, your interaction with the market becomes clearer, simpler, and potentially far more powerful.
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The information provided is of general nature only and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on any information provided, you should consider whether the information is suitable for you and your personal circumstances and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice. All opinions, conclusions, forecasts or recommendations are reasonably held at the time of compilation but are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Go Markets Pty Ltd, ABN 85 081 864 039, AFSL 254963 is a CFD issuer, and trading carries significant risks and is not suitable for everyone. You do not own or have any interest in the rights to the underlying assets. You should consider the appropriateness by reviewing our TMD, FSG, PDS and other CFD legal documents to ensure you understand the risks before you invest in CFDs. These documents are available here.
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