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FX Analysis – USD and GBP up on hot data, JPY and AUD under pressure

A hotter than expected CPI reading out of the UK along with a beat in US retail sales saw global markets turn risk off as rates markets hawkishly re-priced chances of cuts coming from Central Banks. The unwinding of priced in Fed cuts saw a spike in treasury yields and the USD bid, with DXY hitting a high of 103.69 after the December US retail s...

January 18, 2024
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The Week Ahead – Jobs, CPI and Retail Sales – the Charts to watch

FX traders come into the new week with an uptick in tier one economic releases to look forward to after a very slow start to the year volatility-wise. Australian and US employment figures, UK CPI and US retail sales look to headline from Tuesday onwards (Monday is a US public holiday) The Charts to watch: AUDUSD AUDUSD has struggled to fin...

January 15, 2024
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Market Analysis – Hot CPI whipsaws markets – USD, Gold, JPY, AUD

USD was ultimately flat in a choppy session on Thursday after hotter-than-expected US CPI data. The US Dollar Index (DXY) hitting briefly breeching the resistance at 102.63 to hit a high of 102.76. This proved to be another false breakout of this level with DXY gradually retracing for the rest of the session to unchanged levels. JPY outperfo...

January 12, 2024
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FX Analysis – GBP, EUR JPY, USD

USD saw weakness in Wednesday’s session with a risk on equity market and only a marginal move higher in yields weighing on the Greenback ahead of today’s key US CPI report. There was little in the way of major US data releases but some hawkish leaning comments late in the session from the Fed’s Williams stemmed losses. The US Dollar Index (DX...

January 11, 2024
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Market Analysis – Gold tests key level, AUD dips ahead of CPI, Oil bounces

Global markets chopped about in Tuesday’s session with no key data released with traders seemingly waiting on the sidelines for US CPI and a slew of bank earnings later in the week. Gold – XAUUSD XAUUSD rallied in Tuesdays APAC session testing the 2040 USD an ounce resistance level before a sharp drop as Europe opened saw drop to a low of...

January 10, 2024
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AUD CPI Data Looms

Since the start of 2024, the AUDUSD has reversed from the resistance area of 0.6870, a high formed in June and July 2023. The main factor leading to the AUDUSD trading lower is primarily due to the recovery in strength of the DXY. The AUDUSD currently trades along the support area and round number level of 0.67. On Wednesday this week, the Aust...

January 9, 2024
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Gold slides as DXY recovers

The recovery in strength on the DXY has led to Gold reversing strongly from the all-time high of 2088 which was reached at the end of 2023. Last week, the US employment data was released stronger than expected with the Non-Farm employment change at 216K (Forecast: 168K), however, wage inflation remained unchanged at 0.4%. This set of data is likel...

January 9, 2024
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Market Analysis – Oil tumbles on Saudi price cut – USD, JPY, CHF

USD ultimately ended lower on Monday with the US Dollar Index (DXY) first testing the resistance at 102.57 to the upside before reversing course to test the support at 102 to the downside. A risk on equity markets and some dovish developments. Data saw the NY Fed Survey show lower than expected inflation expectations. There was also a dovish call f...

January 9, 2024
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The Week Ahead – XAUUSD, AUDUSD, DXY

Global markets enter the second week of the new year in cooldown mode with risk assets taking a hit after the red-hot finish to 2023. The NASDAQ having its worst start to a year since 1999, dropping almost 4% on the week, risk sensitive currencies AUD and NZD following not far behind. FX traders have a slew of CPI reports in the coming week to l...

January 8, 2024
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FX Analysis – USD flat ahead of NFP, EUR rallies on PMI beats, JPY lags

Beats in US employment data ahead of today’s key Non-farm payroll figure saw the US Dollar Index eke out another gain after weakness in the APAC session reversed in the European session. DXY up for the 5th straight day, having its longest winning streak since September and it’s best start to a year since 2005. DXY hit a high of 102.53, st...

January 5, 2024
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Market Analysis – Dollar rips, AAPL dips, Oil take a wild ride

The new trading year kicked off with a dip in equities with Big Tech leading losses in Tuesday’s session, AAPL being the big loser after a downgrade from Barclays citing concern in iPhone demand. Yields and the USD ripped higher, the US Dollar Index having its biggest daily gain since March 2023. Crude oil capped off an interesting session with a...

January 3, 2024
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FX Analysis – Fed pivot bets to be tested this week

FX markets enter the new year with a continuing backdrop of a weaker USD as traders bet on a Fed pivot in the first half of the year. That narrative could be tested later in the week with some key US manufacturing and employment data, including the monthly Non-farm payrolls. Key levels look to be tested this week in different FX pairs with AUDUS...

January 2, 2024
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Market Analysis – Gold, USDCHF, Crude Oil

Wednesday’s session saw another drift higher in equities with volumes still in holiday mode and few major catalysts to drive market action. There were some big moves in safe haven assets with USDCHF tanking and Gold breaking a key resistance level, a big build in inventories also saw Crude Oil take a tumble. USDCHF The Swiss Franc surged...

December 28, 2023
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FX Analysis – AUDUSD, XAUUSD – Testing Key Levels

The US Dollar has continued its year end decline after the holiday break in thin volume. Traders still holding onto the view of a dovish Fed come 2024 seeing yields also drop creating a headwind for the Greenback. AUDUSD The Aussie pushed has pushed higher this week, taking advantage of a weak USD and a risk on environment. AUDUSD breaking th...

December 27, 2023
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Market Analysis – USD slides, AUD hits key level, Gold rallies

Risk on returned to global markets in Thursdays session with equities rebounding strongly on weak US data that refuelled hopes of a faster pace to the Feds rate cutting cycle come 2024. USD sold off sharply partly due to month-end flows ahead of the holidays but accelerated by a bis miss in Q3 US GDP which came in at 4.9% vs the expected 5.2%. T...

December 22, 2023
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