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Jackson Hole Economic Symposium

GO Markets
9/3/2021
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The annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City has been held since 1978. From 1978-1981 it was held at different locations but since 1981 it has been held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming and this year is no exception. From 24 th – 26 th August 2017, the most influential central bankers, finance ministers, academics and other financial participants from around the world will meet again to discuss the issues facing economies around the globe.

About the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium The key feature of the meeting is discussion that takes place between the participants. Because of the high-profile participants and the topics that are discussed in the event, there is a considerable interest in the symposium, however, to help foster the open discussion that is critical to the event, the attendance is very limited. The topic for the upcoming meeting is "Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy".

The event receives a large number of requests from media agencies worldwide, however, the press presence is also limited to a group that is selected to provide transparency to the symposium. Importance of the event The symposium is closely followed by financial markets participants around the world and over the past decade it has attracted more attention, this is mainly because what has happened in the past. Some of the biggest monetary policies were initially revealed at the event, although they were not formally announced.

During the event, any unexpected comment from any participants can influence the global financial markets. Here are some notable moments from Jackson Hole Symposium: 2005 – Raghuram Rajan (then professor at the University of Chicago and former governor of Reserve Bank of India) warned about risks that the financial system had absorbed throughout the years. Three years later, the US subprime mortgage crisis erupted into global financial crisis. 2012 – Michael Woodford (macroeconomist and monetary theorist, Columbia University) presented where he said that Fed’s stance on keeping its main interest rate near zero until a certain time would reflect pessimism about the speed of the economy’s recovery.

Later that year, the Fed announced it would keep rates near zero until unemployment fell to 6.50% and inflation did not climb above 2.50%. 2014 – Mario Draghi (ECB president) hinted that the ECB was edging closer to embarking on its QE path. During the event, Mario Draghi said that ECB could use ‘all the available instruments’. His announcement came just two months after ECB introduced negative deposit rates in the Eurozone, the financial markets rallied during his speech at the Jackson Hole.

The symposium is a must watch financial market event and it is worth keeping an eye on the discussions and speeches during the event as we may see statements from some of the most influential people from around the world, including FED’s Janet Yellen and ECB’s Mario Draghi, to name a few which could create some volatility in the markets. By: Klavs Valters GO Markets

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GO Markets

The information provided is of general nature only and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on any information provided, you should consider whether the information is suitable for you and your personal circumstances and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice. All opinions, conclusions, forecasts or recommendations are reasonably held at the time of compilation but are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Go Markets Pty Ltd, ABN 85 081 864 039, AFSL 254963 is a CFD issuer, and trading carries significant risks and is not suitable for everyone. You do not own or have any interest in the rights to the underlying assets. You should consider the appropriateness by reviewing our TMD, FSG, PDS and other CFD legal documents to ensure you understand the risks before you invest in CFDs. These documents are available here.

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Featured
Geopolitical events
U.S. Government Shutdown 2025: What Traders Need to Know

The United States entered a government shutdown on October 1, 2025, after Congress failed to agree on full-year appropriations or a short-term funding bill. Although shutdowns have occurred before, the timing, speed, scale, and motives behind this one make it unique. This is the first shutdown since the last Trump term in 2018–19, which lasted 35 days, the longest in history.For traders, understanding both the mechanics and the ripple effects is essential to anticipating how markets may respond, particularly if the shutdown draws out to multiple weeks as currently anticipated.

What Is a Government Shutdown?

A government shutdown occurs when Congress fails to pass appropriation bills or a temporary extension to fund government operations for the new fiscal year beginning October 1.Without the legal authority to spend, federal agencies must suspend “non-essential” operations, while “essential” services such as national security, air traffic control, and public safety continue, often with employees working unpaid until funding is restored.Since the Government Employee Fair Treatment Act of 2019, federal employees are guaranteed back pay to cover lost wages once the shutdown ends, although there has been some narrative from the current administration that some may not be returning to work at all.

Why Did the Government Shutdown Happen?

The 2025 impasse stems from partisan disputes over spending levels, health-insurance subsidies, and proposed rescissions of foreign aid and other programs. The reported result is that around 900,000 federal workers are furloughed, and another 700,000 are currently working without pay.Unlike many past standoffs, there was no stopgap agreement to keep the government open while negotiations continued, making this shutdown more disruptive and unusually early.

Why an Early Shutdown?

Historically, most shutdowns don’t occur immediately on October 1. Lawmakers typically kick the can down the road with a “Continuing Resolution (CR)”. This is a stopgap measure that can extend existing funding for weeks or months to allow time for an agreement later in the quarter.The speed of the breakdown in 2025, with no CR in place, is unusual compared to past shutdowns. It suggests it was not simply budgetary drift, but a potentially deliberate refusal to extend funding.

Alternative Theories Behind the Early Shutdown

While the main narrative coming from the U.S. administrators points to budget deadlock, several other theories are being discussed across the media:

  • Executive Leverage – The White House may be using the shutdown as a tool to increase bargaining power and force structural policy changes. Health care is central to the debate, funding for which was impacted significantly by the “one big, beautiful bill” recently passed through Congress.
  • Hardline Congressional Factions – Small but influential groups within Congress, particularly on the right, may be driving the shutdown to demand deeper cuts.
  • Political Messaging – The blame game is rife, despite the reality that Republican control of the presidency, House, and Senate, as well as both sides, is indulging in the usual political barbs aimed at the other side. As for the voter impact, Recent polls show that voters are placing more blame on Republicans than Democrats at this point, though significant numbers of Americans suggest both parties are responsible
  • Debt Ceiling Positioning – Creating a fiscal crisis early could shape the terms of future negotiations on borrowing limits.
  • Electoral Calculus – With midterms ahead, both sides may be positioning to frame the narrative for voters.
  • Systemic Dysfunction – A structural view is that shutdowns have become a recurring feature of hyper-partisan U.S. politics, rather than exceptions.

Short-Term Impact of Government Shutdown

AreaImpactFederal workforceHundreds of thousands have been furloughed with reduced services across various agencies.Travel & aviationFAA expects to furlough 11,000 staff. Inspections and certifications may stall. Safety concerns may become more acute if prolonged shutdown.Economic outputThe White House estimates a $15 billion GDP loss per week of shutdown (source: internal document obtained by “Politico”.Consumer spendingFederal workers and contractors face delayed income, pressuring local economies. Economic data releaseKey data releases may be delayed, impacting the decision process at the Fed meeting later this month.Credit outlookScope Ratings and others warn that the shutdown is “negative for credit” and could weigh on U.S. borrowing costs.Projects & researchInfrastructure, grants, and scientific initiatives are delayed or paused.

Medium- to Long-Term Impact of Government Shutdown

1. Market Sentiment

Shutdowns show some degree of U.S. political dysfunction. They can weigh on confidence and subsequently equity market and risk asset sentiment. To date, markets are shrugging off a prolonged impact, but a continued shutdown into later next week could start to impact.Equity markets have remained strong, and there has been no evidence of the frequent seasonal pullback we often see around this time of year.Markets have proved resilient to date, but one wonders whether this could be a catalyst for some significant selling to come.

2. Borrowing Costs

Ratings downgrades could lift Treasury yields and increase debt-servicing costs. The Federal Reserve is already balancing sticky inflation and potential downward pressure on growth. This could make rate decisions more difficult.

3. The Impact on the USD

Rises in treasury yields would generally support the USD. However, rising concerns about fiscal stability created by a prolonged shutdown may put further downward pressure on the USD. Consequently, it is likely to result in buying into gold as a safe haven. With gold already testing record highs repeatedly over the last weeks, this could support further moves to the upside.

4. Credibility Erosion

Repeated shutdowns weaken the U.S.’s reputation as the world’s most reliable borrower. With some evidence that tariffs are already impacting trade and investment into the US, a prolonged shutdown could exacerbate this further.

What Traders Should Watch

For those who trade financial markets, shutdowns matter more for what they could signal both in the short and medium term. Here are some of the key asset classes to watch:

  • Equities: Likely to see volatility as political risk rises, and the potential for “money off the table” after significant gains year-to-date for equities.
  • U.S. Dollar: With the US dollar already relatively weak, further vulnerability if a shutdown feeds global doubts about U.S. fiscal stability.
  • Gold and other commodities: May continue to gain as hedges against political and credit risk. Oil is already threatening support levels; any prolonged shutdown may add to the bearish narrative, along with other economic slowdown concerns
  • Outside the US: With the US such a big player in global GDP, we may see revisions in forward-looking estimates, slingshot impacts on other global markets and even supply chain disruptions with impact on customs services (potentially inflationary).

Final Word

The 2025 shutdown is unusual because of its scale and because it started on Day 1 of the fiscal year, without even a temporary extension. That speed points to a deeper strategic and political contribution beyond the usual budget wrangling that we see periodically.For traders, the lesson is clear: shutdowns are not just what happens in Washington, but may impact confidence, borrowing costs, and market sentiment across a range of asset classes. In today’s world, where political credibility is a form of capital, shutdowns have the potential to erode the very foundation of the U.S.’s role in global finance and trade relationships.

Mike Smith
•
October 3, 2025
Featured
Geopolitical events
The US Entering the War – What Does It Mean for Oil?

The US has entered the Israel-Iran war. However, despite an initial 4 per cent surge on the open, oil has settled where it has been since the conflict began in early June — around US$72 to US$75 a barrel.Trump claims the attacks from the US on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend are a very short, very tactical, one-off. This is something his base can get behind — some really big conservative players do not want a long-contracted war that sucks the US into external disputes.Whether this will be the case or not is up for debate, but there is a precedent from Trump's first presidency that we can look to. Iran had attacked several American bases in 2019, as well as attacking Saudi Arabia's most important oil refinery with Iranian drones. There wasn't a huge amount of damage; it was more a symbolic movement and display of capabilities by Iran.Initially, Trump didn't react — it took pressure from Gulf allies like the UAE and Israel for him to respond, which saw him order the assassination of the head of the Iranian Defence Force, Qasem Soleimani. This led to an Iranian response of ‘lots of noise’ and ‘cage rattling’, but minimal real action events, just a few drone attacks. Trump is betting on the same reaction now.If Iran follows the same patterns from the previous engagement, the geopolitical side of this is already at its peak.As of now, Iran is not going after or destroying major Gulf energy capabilities. Nor have there been any disruptions to the shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. In fact, apart from a posturing vote to block the Strait, Iran has not made any indication that it is going to disrupt oil in any way that would lead to price surges.Additionally, despite the U.S. military equipment buildup in the region being its highest since the Iraq war, critical Iranian energy infrastructure is running largely unscathed.This all suggests that the geopolitics and the physical and futures oil markets remain disconnected. Oil will spike on news rumours, but the actual impacts in the physical realm to this point remain low. Of course, this could change in future. But, for now, the risk of seeing oil move to US$100 a barrel is still a minority case rather than the majority.

Evan Lucas
•
June 24, 2025
Featured
Geopolitical events
Oil Price Reality: Are We Destined for New Highs, or Just Another False Alarm?

Oil has been thrust back into the spotlight as the negative catalyst for markets. The events over the weekend highlight just how fragile the Middle East is and how it will shape global trading in the second half of 2025.Putting Iran in an oil-specific perspective, despite rising geopolitical tensions, the potential for sustained disruptions to energy supply appears limited for now. This is backed by historical data seen in April, June, and October last year, where heightened risk didn't translate into prolonged price surges.There are absolutely geopolitical concerns around Iranian retaliation, coupled with Israeli retaliation, and so on. But the likelihood of strikes on regional energy infrastructure appears low.Iran’s relationships with Gulf nations have improved markedly, reducing the risk of hostile action toward their oil operations. This has been led by Saudi Arabia, which will be strong in ensuring no disruption to global oil supplies. The caveat is if Iran decides to go at it alone and block the Strait of Hormuz, which would severely impact the likes of Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq. This appears unlikely, but a risk we need to be aware of.

Where does diplomacy sit?

Expectations are for tensions to spike in the short term. However, that will likely lead to renewed diplomatic engagement, particularly if the alternatives prove economically or strategically untenable (i.e., long-term war, regime changes, civil unrest). That's the long term; the near-term resolution is the concern. The United States and the greater regions of Europe and Asia will be brought in. We know that the President has a very high preference for low oil prices as a major part of his election campaign. With no signs, demand is likely to collapse. The only way to keep prices down on this escalation is to ramp up supply. The catch is that US producers remain very reluctant to ramp up supply at current prices. OPEC and Saudi Arabia have already moved to increase production to stamp out non-OPEC members on price, and Russia is still a global pariah with its war with Ukraine. So the supply lever is going to be tricky.

So, what about pricing?

Energy price volatility is being closely tied to positioning in the futures market. Historical patterns show a strong correlation between net longs and Brent pricing.If we speculate that short positions were to be fully unwound (from 187k lots to zero), the implied move could be around $14 per barrel. Brent recently hit $65 per barrel before the conflict and spiked to an intraday high of $78.5 per barrel on the news breaking. This reflects the type of technical squeezes we can expect. Sustained gains would then require fresh long positioning.

Summary

The market remains focused on how Iran and Israel might respond further, and whether any escalation might target energy infrastructure directly. Meanwhile, the U.S. continues to signal interest in keeping diplomatic channels open. Unless Iran decides to go against all expectations and independently block the Strait of Hormuz, we can expect heightened volatility in the short term, without any prolonged surge — similar to the patterns we saw during heightened tensions throughout last year.

Evan Lucas
•
June 16, 2025
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Market Insights
BlackRock Backs Crypto, AI Memory Crisis, and Copper Pushes Key Level

Bitcoin rebounded 7% to touch $94,000 this week as two of the world's largest asset managers doubled down on their conviction that this cycle could break from crypto's boom-bust past.

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and COO Rob Goldstein declared tokenisation "the next major evolution in market infrastructure,” comparing its potential to the introduction of electronic messaging systems in the 1970s.

Tokenised real-world assets have exploded from $7 billion to $24 billion in just one year, with certain projections expecting tokenised instruments to comprise 10-24% of portfolios by 2030.

Total RWA Value

Grayscale's latest research also put forward the case that this cycle will not follow Bitcoin’s predictable four-year pattern. Their analysis shows this cycle has had no parabolic price surge like previous cycles, and capital is flowing through regulated ETPs and corporate treasuries rather than retail speculation.

Grayscale has boldly predicted Bitcoin will reach new all-time highs next year based on this data, with near-term catalysts including a likely Federal Reserve rate cut and advancing crypto legislation.

AI Boom Creating a Memory Chip Supply Crisis

The AI revolution has had an unexpected ripple effect on conventional memory chips (DRAM).

Post-ChatGPT launch in 2022, chipmakers pivoted aggressively toward high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips — the components that power AI data centres.

Samsung and SK Hynix, who control roughly 70% of the global DRAM market, transitioned large portions of their production away from conventional chips.

This worked in the short term, but data centre operators are now replacing old servers, and PC and smartphone sales have exceeded expectations (all of which require DRAM).

This saw DRAM supplier inventories fall to just two to four weeks in October, down from 13 to 17 weeks in late 2024.

DRAM spot prices nearly tripled in September this year, while in Tokyo's electronics district, popular gaming memory modules have surged from 17,000 yen to over 47,000 yen in recent weeks.

Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta have all approached Micron with open-ended orders, agreeing to purchase whatever the company can deliver, regardless of price.

Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix shares have rallied 96%, 168%, and 213% YTD, respectively, thanks to the increased DRAM demand.

Ironically, this recent price surge has seen DRAM chip margins approach those of the advanced HBM chips, meaning non-AI memory could now become equally profitable to produce.

Buying Pressure Pushes Copper Through Key Level

GO Markets
•
December 4, 2025
Trading strategies
Featured
The Anatomy of a Higher-Probability Trading Setup

Every trader has had that moment where a seemingly perfect trade goes astray. 

You see a clean chart on the screen, showing a textbook candle pattern; it seems as though the market planets have aligned, and so you enthusiastically jump into your trade.

But before you even have time to indulge in a little self-praise at a job well done,  the market does the opposite of what you expected, and your stop loss is triggered.

This common scenario, which we have all unfortunately experienced, raises the question: What separates these “almost” trades from the truly higher-probability setups? 

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The State of Alignment

A high-probability setup isn’t necessarily a single signal or chart pattern. It is the coming together of several factors in a way that can potentially increase the likelihood of a successful trade. 

When combined, six interconnected layers can come together to form the full “anatomy” of a higher-probability trading setup:

  • Context
  • Structure
  • Confluence
  • Timing
  • Management 
  • Psychology

When more of these factors are in place, the greater the (potential) probability your trade will behave as expected.

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Market Context 

When we explore market context, we are looking at the underlying background conditions that may help some trading ideas thrive, and contribute to others failing.

Regime Awareness

Every trading strategy you choose to create has a natural set of market circumstances that could be an optimum trading environment for that particular trading approach.

For example:

  • Trending regimes may favour momentum or breakout setups.
  • Ranging regimes may suit mean-reversion or bounce systems.
  • High-volatility regimes create opportunity but demand wider stops and quicker management.

Investing time considering the underlying market regime may help avoid the temptation to force a trending system into a sideways market.

Simply looking at the slope of a 50-period moving average or the width of a Bollinger Band can suggest what type of market is currently in play. 

Sentiment Alignment

If risk sentiment shifts towards a specific (or a group) of related assets, the technical picture is more likely to change to match that. 

For example, if the USD index is broadly strengthening as an underlying move, then looking for long trades in EURUSD setups may end up fighting headwinds.

Setting yourself some simple rules can help, as trading against a potential tidal wave of opposite price change in a related asset is not usually a strong foundation on which to base a trading decision.

Key Reference Zones

Context also means the location of the current price relative to levels or previous landmarks.

Some examples include:

  • Weekly highs/lows
  • Prior session ranges, e.g. the Asian high and low as we move into the European session
  • Major “round” psychological numbers (e.g., 1.10, 1000)

A long trading setup into these areas of market importance may result in an overhead resistance, or a short trade into a potential area of support may reduce the probability of a continuation of that price move before the trade even starts.

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Market Structure 

Structure is the visual rhythm of price that you may see on the chart. It involves the sequences of trader impulses and corrections that end up defining the overall direction and the likelihood of continuation:

  • Uptrend: Higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL)
  • Downtrend: Lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL)
  • Transition: Break in structure often followed by a retest of previous levels.

A pullback in an uptrend followed by renewed buying pressure over a previous price swing high point may well constitute a higher-probability buy than a random candle pattern in the middle of nowhere.

Compression and Expansion

Markets move through cycles of energy build-up and release. It is a reflection of the repositioning of asset holdings, subtle institutional accumulation, or a response to new information, and may all result in different, albeit temporary, broad price scenarios.

  • Compression: Evidenced by a tightening range, declining ATR, smaller candles, and so suggesting a period of indecision or exhaustion of a previous price move, 
  • Expansion: Evidenced by a sudden breakout, larger candle bodies, and a volume spike, is suggestive of a move that is now underway.

A breakout that clears a liquidity zone often runs further, as ‘trapped’ traders may further fuel the move as they scramble to reposition.

A setup aligned with such liquidity flows may carry a higher probability than one trading directly into it.

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Confluence 

Confluence is the art of layering independent evidence to create a whole story. Think of it as a type of “market forensics” — each piece of confirmation evidence may offer a “better hand’ or further positive alignment for your idea.

There are three noteworthy types of confluence:

  1. Technical Confluence – Multiple technical tools agree with your trading idea:
  • Moving average alignment (e.g., 20 EMA above 50 EMA) for a long trade
  • A Fibonacci retracement level is lining up with a previously identified support level.
  • Momentum is increasing on indicators such as the MACD.
  1. Multi-Timeframe Confluence – Where a lower timeframe setup is consistent with a higher timeframe trend. If you have alignment of breakout evidence across multiple timeframes, any move will often be strengthened by different traders trading on different timeframes, all jumping into new trades together.

3. Volume Confluence – Any directional move, if supported by increasing volume, suggests higher levels of market participation. Whereas falling volume may be indicative of a lesser market enthusiasm for a particular price move.

Confluence is not about clutter on your chart. Adding indicators, e.g., three oscillators showing the same thing, may make your chart look like a work of art, but it offers little to your trading decision-making and may dilute action clarity.

Think of it this way: Confluence comes from having different dimensions of evidence and seeing them align. Price, time, momentum, and participation (which is evidenced by volume) can all contribute.

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Timing & Execution 

An alignment in context and structure can still fail to produce a desired outcome if your timing is not as it should be. Execution is where higher probability traders may separate themselves from hopeful ones.

Entry Timing

  • Confirmation: Wait for the candle to close beyond the structure or level. Avoid the temptation to try to jump in early on a premature breakout wick before the candle is mature.
  • Retests: If the price has retested and respected a breakout level, it may filter out some false breaks that we will often see.
  • Then act: Be patient for the setup to complete. Talking yourself out of a trade for the sake of just one more candle” confirmation may, over time, erode potential as you are repeatedly late into trades.

Session & Liquidity Windows

Markets breathe differently throughout the day as one session rolls into another. Each session's characteristics may suit different strategies. 

For example:

  • London Open: Often has a volatility surge; Range breaks may work well.
  • New York Overlap: Often, we will see some continuation or reversal of morning trends.
  • Asian Session: A quieter session where mean-reversion or range trading approaches may do well

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Trade Management 

Managing the position well after entry can turn probability into realised profit, or if mismanaged, can result in losses compounding or giving back unrealised profit to the market. 

Pre-defined Invalidation

Asking yourself before entry: “What would the market have to do to prove me wrong?” could be an approach worth trying. 

This facilitates stops to be placed logically rather than emotionally. If a trade idea moves against your original thinking, based on a change to a state of unalignment, then considering exit would seem logical. 

Scaling & Partial Exits

High-probability trade entries will still benefit from dynamic exit approaches that may involve partial position closes and adaptive trailing of your initial stop.

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Trader Psychology 

One of the most important and overlooked components of a higher-probability setup is you.

It is you who makes the choices to adopt these practices, and you who must battle the common trading “demons” of fear, impatience, and distorted expectation.

Let's be real, higher-probability trades are less common than many may lead you to believe. 

Many traders destroy their potential to develop any trading edge by taking frequent low-probability setups out of a desire to be “in the market.” 

It can take strength to be inactive for periods of time and exercise that patience for every box to be ticked in your plan before acting.

Measure “You” performance

Each trade you take becomes data and can provide invaluable feedback. You can only make a judgment of a planned strategy if you have followed it to the letter. 

Discipline in execution can be your greatest ally or enemy in determining whether you ultimately achieve positive trading outcomes.

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Bringing It All Together – The Setup Blueprint

Final Thoughts

Higher-probability setups are not found but are constructed methodically. 

A trader who understands the “higher-probability anatomy” is less likely to chase trades or feel the need to always be in the market. They will see merit in ticking all the right boxes and then taking decisive action when it is time to do so. 

It is now up to you to review what you have in place now, identify gaps that may exist, and commit to taking action!

Mike Smith
•
December 3, 2025
Cryptocurrency
Featured
Is the Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Over?

Bitcoin has now outlasted the peak of all its previous four-year cycles.

For over a decade, every Bitcoin cycle has followed the same sequence: consolidation, breakout, mania, crash. Rinse and repeat.

Timeline-wise, we should be at the post-mania inflection point, waiting for the seemingly inevitable crash.

Yet unlike previous runs, this cycle never saw its “mania phase.” Instead, Bitcoin has spent the past year grinding sideways, touching new all-time highs without a euphoric blow-off top that defined previous cycles.

The fact that this euphoria period never materialised brings into question whether this cycle still has room to run, or has the market simply matured past the point of mania-driven peaks?

The Historical Four-Year Pattern

The traditional Bitcoin cycle was simple. Every four years, a halving event would reduce the block reward (amount of new Bitcoin being created) by half, creating a supply shock that triggered major bull markets.

The 2013 cycle, the 2017 cycle, and the 2021 cycle all followed this script. Each halving was followed by a 3-to 9-month growth period, then a full-on mania period, before topping out 12 to 18 months after the event.

Following the most recent halving in April 2024, Bitcoin experienced five months of sideways consolidation, then hinted at making its anticipated breakout into mania after the US election… but quickly returned to sideways consolidation for the next year.

We have seen new ATHs and the price has made some notable gains during the period, but the overall momentum has been much weaker.

This failure to repeat the frenzies of the past three cycles has brought into question how much influence the Bitcoin halving truly has on the market anymore.

No Longer a Supply Shock

In previous cycles, the halving created a situation where prices had to rise to clear the same dollar amount of miner expenses (who were now earning half the Bitcoin).

Bitcoin miners would simply not sell until the price reached a certain level, creating a supply shock that would drive prices higher.

Miners still do this today; however, the market’s maturation and the institutional adoption of Bitcoin have dampened the impact.

Selling off Bitcoin is no longer a balancing act where miners hold influence over price. The market has deep liquidity that can handle significant flows in either direction.

Institutional ETFs routinely purchase more Bitcoin in a single day than miners produce in a month. 

The supply reduction that once drove dramatic price movements is now easily absorbed by a market with institutional buyers providing constant demand.

If the Halving Isn't Driving Cycles, What Is?

The overriding narrative is that the Bitcoin cycle is now tied to the global liquidity cycle.

If you plot the Global M2 Money Supply versus Bitcoin on a year-on-year basis, you can see that every Bitcoin top has correlated with the peaks of Global M2 liquidity growth.

This isn't unique to Bitcoin. The Gold price has closely mirrored the rate of Global M2 expansion for decades.

When central banks flood the system with liquidity, capital tends to move into stores of value or high-risk assets. When they drain liquidity, those same assets tend to retreat.

However, this is a correlation; these relationships may change and should not be relied upon as indicators of future performance.

Is the Dollar Just Getting Weaker?

The U.S. Dollar Strength Index tells the other side of this liquidity story. Bitcoin versus the dollar year-on-year has been almost perfectly inversely correlated. 

Simply put, as fiat currencies lose purchasing power, “hard” assets like Bitcoin and Gold start to appreciate. Not because of improved fundamentals, but because the currencies they are paired against are simply worth less.

The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Beyond the charts and patterns, there is also the psychological notion that the four-year cycle persists precisely because people believe it will.

People have been conditioned by three complete cycles to expect Bitcoin to peak somewhere between 400 and 600 days after a halving.

This collective belief shapes behaviour: traders take profits, investors take fewer risks, and retail enthusiasm wanes. The prophecy fulfils itself.

When everyone believes Bitcoin should peak 18 months after a halving, the combined selling pressure can create exactly that outcome — regardless of whether the underlying driver still exists.

The current market weakness, with Bitcoin dropping over 20% from its October record high, occurred almost precisely at this 18-month mark.

Is This Cycle Built Different?

Despite this on-cue sell-off, this cycle still has the potential to break away from the historical four-year pattern. 

Increased ETF adoption by institutional investors has brought in higher quality and consistent ownership of Bitcoin.

Unlike retail traders, who often panic-sell during corrections, institutional holders tend to maintain their positions through volatility.

For example, Michael Saylor’s high-profile MicroStrategy fund has continued to purchase Bitcoin through market weakness. Recently reporting a purchase of 8,178 BTC at an average price of $102,171.

Recent MicroStrategy BTC purchases

Another hard indicator that diverges from previous cycle peaks is the amount of Bitcoin being held on centralised exchanges.

The current amount of BTC on CEXs is unusually low. This pattern is generally seen closer to cycle lows, rather than peaks.

Other factors supporting the break of the four-year mould are coming out of the Whitehouse. 

A comprehensive regulatory framework through the CLARITY Act represents structural changes and boundaries for regulatory bodies that didn't exist in previous cycles.

And the move to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve will see all government-held forfeited Bitcoin (approximately $30 billion worth) transferred into a government reserve, signalling Bitcoin as a strategic asset like Gold and oil.

Estimated U.S. Government Bitcoin holdings

Bitcoin Has Finally Grown Up

The four-year cycle has been a useful heuristic, but heuristics break down when conditions change. Institutional buyers, regulatory clarity, and strategic reserves represent genuinely new conditions historical patterns don’t account for.

At the same time, dismissing the cycle entirely would be premature. The self-fulfilling aspect means it retains predictive power even if the original cause has weakened. 

Market participants act on the pattern they've learned, and their actions create the pattern they expect.

Perhaps the real insight is that the Bitcoin market cycles never had just one cause. They were always the result of multiple overlapping forces — programmed scarcity, liquidity conditions, sentiment, self-reinforcing expectations.

The cycle shifts character as some forces strengthen and others weaken. But whether the forces have shifted enough to break the four-year trend is yet to be determined. 

The fundamental indicators show this cycle may have some life, but the psychological power of the four-year pattern could push it to another, predictable end.

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‍You can trade BTC and other popular Crypto CFD pairs on GO Markets with $0 swaps until 31 December 2025.

GO Markets
•
December 2, 2025
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