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BoC’s Macklem signals more rate hikes as Oil fuels inflation risks
On Tuesday, Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem appeared before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance and said that “further rate hikes may be needed” because the war in the Middle East is keeping energy prices “higher for longer.”
In prepared remarks, he expects CPI to rise to 3.5% by the end of the year, remain above the 3% threshold through 2027, and return near 2% by mid-2028. Regarding growth, he sees GDP at 1% in 2026 and 2% in 2027 and 2028.
Key highlights:
The outlook for inflation has deteriorated. With the war in the Middle East persisting, global oil prices have increased and are expected to remain higher for longer, which is hitting Canadians at the gas pump and increasing costs for many businesses
Further rate hikes may be needed, but future decisions will be taken meeting by meeting amid elevated uncertainty
CPI inflation expected to rise to 3.5% by year-end, remain at or above 3% through much of 2027, and return near 2% by mid-2028
GDP growth reached 3.3% in Q2, with Q3 growth estimated around 2%
Canadian economy showing resilience despite US trade actions, with growth outlook improving modestly
GDP is projected to grow 1% in 2026 and approximately 2% in both 2027 and 2028
Growth expected to slow in Q4 due to new US tariffs before recovering in 2027
Higher oil prices and refinery margins are increasing consumer and business costs, with greater pass-through to inflation expected over the coming year
In current circumstances, does not think fiscal policy is making it harder to get inflation down
Canadian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.00% | -0.04% | 0.35% | 0.02% | 0.33% | 0.04% | 0.32% | |
| EUR | -0.00% | -0.03% | 0.34% | 0.01% | 0.33% | 0.03% | 0.32% | |
| GBP | 0.04% | 0.03% | 0.36% | 0.05% | 0.36% | 0.07% | 0.36% | |
| JPY | -0.35% | -0.34% | -0.36% | -0.32% | -0.02% | -0.30% | -0.01% | |
| CAD | -0.02% | -0.01% | -0.05% | 0.32% | 0.32% | 0.03% | 0.31% | |
| AUD | -0.33% | -0.33% | -0.36% | 0.02% | -0.32% | -0.28% | 0.00% | |
| NZD | -0.04% | -0.03% | -0.07% | 0.30% | -0.03% | 0.28% | 0.29% | |
| CHF | -0.32% | -0.32% | -0.36% | 0.01% | -0.31% | 0.00% | -0.29% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
Bank of Canada FAQs
The Bank of Canada (BoC), based in Ottawa, is the institution that sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Canada. It does so at eight scheduled meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings that are held as required. The BoC primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at between 1-3%. Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Canadian Dollar (CAD) and vice versa. Other tools used include quantitative easing and tightening.
In extreme situations, the Bank of Canada can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the BoC prints Canadian Dollars for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker CAD. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The Bank of Canada used the measure during the Great Financial Crisis of 2009-11 when credit froze after banks lost faith in each other’s ability to repay debts.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of Canada purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the BoC stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Canadian Dollar.
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