Market news & insights

Global markets are calm but alert in response to the US–Venezuela situation, with US and European equities holding near or testing record levels.

January’s market action often matters more than simply marking the opening of the calendar year. Institutional positioning resets, testing of economic assumptions, and early price moves reflect how market participants interpret the first meaningful signals of the year.

Asia starts the week with a fresh geopolitical shock that is already being framed in oil terms, not just security terms. The first-order move may be a repricing of risk premia and volatility across energy and macro, while markets wait to see whether this becomes a durable physical disruption or a fast-fading headline premium.

In 2025, the S&P 500 traded around 6,835 and was up approximately 16% year to date (YTD). Market direction remained most sensitive to Federal Reserve expectations, inflation data and the earnings outlook, with returns also shaped by mega-cap tech leadership and the broader AI narrative. The index pulled back from earlier December highs, but it has so far held above key major moving averages (MA).

2025 has seen a material decline in the fortunes of the greenback. A technical structure breakdown early in the year was followed by a breach of the 200-day moving average (MA) at the end of Q1. The index then entered correction territory, printing a three-year low at the end of Q2.

As the final trading days of December approach, investors are assessing whether seasonal factors may again influence year-end price action.