Market news & insights
Stay ahead of the markets with expert insights, news, and technical analysis to guide your trading decisions.

US inflation data on Wednesday is the week's centrepiece, but with oil nearing seven-month highs, Bitcoin (BTC) sentiment shifting, and the Australian dollar at three-year highs, traders have plenty to navigate in the week ahead.
Quick Facts
- US inflation rate (February) is the key binary event for rate cut pricing and equity direction.
- Brent crude is trading around US$82–84/bbl, near seven-month highs, with a $4–$10 geopolitical risk premium baked in from Iran/Hormuz tensions.
- Bitcoin is trading above US$70,000 as of 6 March, a potential trend change if it holds through the week.
United States: inflation in focus
Last month’s US inflation reading showed prices rising 2.4% year-on-year, still well above the Fed's 2% target.
February's inflation rate, due Wednesday, will be scrutinised for signs that tariff pass-through or rising energy costs are pushing prices back up, or whether the slow grind lower is still intact.
The March FOMC meeting on 17–18 March is now priced at only an 4.7% probability of a cut. A higher-than-expected inflation print this week could potentially push rate cut expectations further out.
A softer read opens the door to renewed cut pricing and potential relief across risk assets.
Key Dates
- US Inflation Rate (February CPI): Wednesday 11 March, 12:30 am (AEDT)
Monitor
- Core vs. headline inflation divergence as evidence of tariff pass-through in goods prices.
- 2-year and 10-year treasury yield sensitivity to the print.
- USD direction and FedWatch repricing in the lead up to the 18 March FOMC decision.

Oil: elevated and event-sensitive
Brent is currently trading around US$83–85 per barrel, with a 52-week range spanning $58.40 to $85.12, reflecting the dramatic move triggered by the Middle East conflict.
Analysts estimate the geopolitical risk premium already baked into oil at US$4–$10 per barrel, and average 2026 Brent forecasts have been lifted to US$63.85/bbl, up from US$62.02 in January.
The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts Brent to average $58/bbl in 2026, well below the current spot price.
The gap between spot and the forecast baseline could be a useful frame for traders this week: any de-escalation signal from the Middle East could rapidly close that gap.
Monitor
- Strait of Hormuz developments and any diplomatic signals from Iran nuclear talks.
- EIA weekly oil inventory data.
- Oil's knock-on to inflation expectations and whether it shifts central bank posture.
- Energy sector equity performance relative to the broader market.

Bitcoin: sentiment watch
BTC has been attempting to stabilise after a brutal 53% correction over the past 17 weeks, fuelled by escalating geopolitical tensions and renewed tariff concerns.
However, yesterday saw a 8% jump back above $72,000, and the crypto “fear and greed index” jumped up to 29 (fear), up from below 20 (extreme fear), where it has been sitting for over a month, indicating a potential sentiment shift.
A cooler-than-expected US inflation print on Wednesday could provide further fuel for the breakout; a hot print risks potentially pulling BTC back below the US$70,000 level it has just reclaimed.
Monitor
- Inflation print reaction on Wednesday as the primary macro catalyst for the move.
- Any rotation into altcoins following BTC strength.
- ETF inflow/outflow data as confirmation of institutional participation.

AUD/USD: Hawkish RBA meets geopolitical crosswinds
The Aussie is trading near more than three-year highs and heading for its fourth consecutive monthly gain, up more than 6% year-to-date, making it the top-performing G10 currency in 2026.
The driver is a clear policy divergence. RBA Governor Michele Bullock signalled the March policy meeting is "live" for a possible rate increase, and warned that an oil price shock from Iran tensions could reignite domestic inflationary pressures.
Market pricing now suggests around a 28% chance of a 25bp hike at the upcoming meeting, while fully pricing in tightening through May, and around a 75% chance of another increase to 4.35% by year-end.
This hawkish read, set against a Fed on hold and facing dovish political pressure, creates a potential structural tailwind for the Aussie.
Monitor
- AUD/USD reaction to Wednesday's US inflation data.
- RBA rate hike probability repricing through the week.
- Iron ore and commodity prices as secondary AUD drivers.
- China demand signals, given Australia's export exposure.


Many traders have the prudent approach that treats trading as you would a business. A critical component of this is to have a thorough knowledge of your expenditure in relation to your trading activity. With Share CFDs these are potentially fourfold, namely: Your cost of trading (e.g. brokerage) Your cost of holding a position The cost to enter a trade (your margin requirement) Potential cost of the data feed (for non-traders) Brokerage Traditionally, using a broker to trade shares incurs a fee for services of the placement and exit of a trade termed brokerage.
This is usually organised as a minimum flat fee or a percentage of the trade entered, whichever is the higher figure. The majority of Forex traders are used to not “officially” paying a brokerage. However, the bid/ask spread could be logically viewed as the cost of entry, as if you were to close a position immediately then you would be paying the difference between bid and ask prices.
Hence, although with shares you are essentially in a loss situation at the start because of brokerage, with Forex you are also in a loss position at the start of a trade, due to the spread. With CFD share trading, the brokerage applied to entry and exit is 0.08% of the overall position exposure or a fixed minimum charge of $10 - whichever is greater. For example. if you had entered a position with exposure of $10,000, the brokerage cost of this trade would be 10,000 x 0.08% = $8, therefore this would attract the minimum $10 brokerage.
Alternatively, if the position was exposure of $20,000, the brokerage would be $16. This will be considered in your profit/loss column on your platform. Holding costs As with Forex trading, if you choose to trade longer timeframes involving holding a position overnight, there is a debit or credit applied to your account for this.
This charge is dependent on the direction of the trade (i.e. long or short) and the ‘swap rate’ applied to the position direction. The value is calculated using a base rate of 2.5% and then: If it is a long trade the interbank rate is added to this If it is a short trade the short interbank rate is subtracted from this Rather than having to find the interest rate and doing the calculation yourself, to make it easy for you, the swap rate can be found by right-clicking on the CFD in the “market watch” box of your trading platform and subsequently clicking on “specifications”. Scrolling down the pop-up box will reveal the swap rates.
For example, on the day of writing this article the swap rates for BHP are as below So, a long trade with $20,000 of exposure to BHP with a swap of -4.05 is charged as (20,000 x 4.2%)/360 = $2.25 per day. Again, this daily holding charge (applied at 4.59pm US EST) will be visible on your trade box on your platform in the swap column and taken into account in your profit/loss column. The cost to enter a trade (your margin requirement) As with Forex, with CFDs you have the opportunity (as well as being aware of the risks) of using leverage to enter positions.
Unlike Forex, there is not a set margin, so as with index CFDs, each equity CFD has its own set margin level. Again, these may be found in the ‘specifications’ box. For example, ANZ has a margin of 0.05 or 0.5% applied, whereas with BHP the margin applied is 0.075 or 7.5% (See below) So as an example, If we take BHP at this margin rate and we open CFDs to the value of 10,000 the margin requirement on this position will be $750.
The potential cost of the data feed Most global exchanges, including the ASX, charge for a data-feed of live prices and other trading information e.g. volume. Often, these are passed onto individual clients, however, as part of the service we offer, you will get this live feed at no subscription charge whilst you are actively trading. Some of the information described above may be new to you, so if you need some clarity you can simply get in touch with us and we will always be happy to help.

When we first start to trade, or subsequently (as a more experienced trader) when we trade a new symbol or system we are often “excited” as we see a “hope” for better results. We often forget that the development of expertise in other areas we have in life (think about what you do in work now for example), you must invest time, effort, learning and making mistakes (providing you acknowledge and learn from them) to develop. This is not an overnight transformation, rather it may take several weeks if not months before you feel confident in your knowledge and skills.
It is bizarre therefore that we should expect anything different with trading development. To be clear, we respect and commend those who take the leap and move from demo to live account. After all, a demo platform ( you can trial a MetaTrader 4 or MT 5 demo account here ) will serve you in learning how the platform works, how to add indicators and get used to how markets move.
However, it is only when you start to have some “skin in the game” and are trading YOUR money, albeit with tiny positions to start with that you learn the most important lessons in trading and develop the appropriate mindset to begin to think about trading larger positions. All that been said, we see time and time again new traders or those trading a new system exhibiting three cardinal sins of the developmental trader, and decide to trade: a. With positions that are too big b.
Short cutting learning and system development c. Strategy skipping (i.e. moving from new system to new system) without meaningful measurement as to what works for you (and what doesn’t) or indeed whether the problem is YOU failing to trade a system religiously. These are all symptoms of impatience, of wanting to get massive returns quickly and without putting the hard yards in at the front end.
Remember this... The purpose of your trading when you start trading a live account should not be huge profit, rather it is to develop the confidence in your system, consistency in action and the measure whether what you are doing could be improved. Although it may seem strange to suggest, it is this and not, in the early stage of trading, the money (and level of profit) is most relevant in your potential lifelong career as a trader.
It is through patience, and adhering to that initial purpose that you can gain sufficient confidence and competence to trade larger positions (after all it is just moving a decimal point to go from 1 mini-lot to a standard lot) and put the right foundations in to move forward. Exercising patience to have the right things in place will serve you well for a potential lifetime of trading, to be impatient may mean your trading lasts but a few weeks or months. It is really that simple.

One of the must-watch economic events this week will be the Bank of Canada interest rate decision. The rate decision is due to be announced at 15:00 PM London time on Wednesday. Why is the announcement important?
A bank interest rate is a rate at which a country's central bank lends money to local banks. The interest rate is charged by the nation's central or federal bank on loans and advances to control the money supply in the economy and the banking sector. The Bank of Canada has an inflation target of 1% to 3% (currently 1%).
The interest rates are changed accordingly to meet the target. The decision to increase, decrease, or maintain the interest rate has a significant impact on the financial markets so it is one of the most closely watched economic events in the calendar. Bank of Canada interest rate changes since 2015 Expectations All eyes will be on the Bank of Canada governor, Tiff Macklem on whether the interest rate remains unchanged at 0.25% or reduced closer to 0%.
Canada has had one of the strictest lockdown measures in the world in its fight to defeat the Coronavirus in recent months, which has had a considerable impact on the country’s economy. Despite that, the rates are expected to remain unchanged, according to economists. Brett House, vice-president, and deputy chief economist at Scotiabank: ''We do not expect a rate cut from the Bank of Canada at its next meeting as rate-sensitive sectors don’t need an additional boost.
For instance, Governor Macklem noted before the holidays that we should watch how housing is faring... Canadian home sales were up 7.2 per cent month-over-month in December to set a record for the month, which completed an annual gain of 12.6 per cent year-over-year. In other areas, retail sales have been above year-ago levels for several months.'' ''Although some immediate risks to the economy have gone up with intensified restrictions to stem the spread of COVID-19, medium-term risks relevant for setting monetary policy have abated.
Vaccines are being delivered about a year ahead of the Bank of Canada’s earlier expectations; the U.S. stimulus and funding bill passed and a government shutdown was averted, which will provide some positive spillover effects into Canada; and financial conditions remain favourable to growth.'' The Monetary Policy Report is set to be released shortly after the rate decision.

Position sizing is simply the number of contracts that you choose to enter for any specific trade. It is this, combined with the movement in price (either positively or negatively) from entry to exit in your trade, that determines your final dollar result for any specific trade. As this result impacts on your trading capital, position sizing, along with appropriate exit decisions and actions, are THE two key factors in both risk management and taking profit.
It is good trading practice to have a “tolerable risk level”, i.e. what you are prepared to lose on a single trade. This, as we have covered in First Steps, is usually expressed as a percentage of your total trading capital (somewhere between 1-4% are commonly used). For example, If your chosen risk level is 3% and the capital in your account is $5000, this means that you would be prepared to risk $150 on one trade.
Why use formal position sizing? A formal position sizing system aims to answer the question “how many lots do I enter to keep any loss within my tolerable risk level if my stop loss is triggered?”. As we enter a trade, we ALL position size, but we have a choice as to how we action this.
We can: Guess. Use a dollar level i.e. when it hits this we are out (you can retrospectively modify a stop level on a trade chart on your trading platform). Use a technical level as a stop loss and work out how many contracts we can enter based on the Pip movement between entry and stop.
Logically, “3” would seem the most robust AND this should be calculated BEFORE entering a trade. So how do I position size? Accepting that the third of the options above is theoretically the optimum method, the process is: a.
What is my “tolerable risk level” in dollar terms? b. What is the desired technical entry and stop loss price levels? c. What is the dollar difference between entry and stop loss exit? d.
Divide ”a” (your tolerable risk level) by “c” to get an estimated position size. If your account is in Australian dollars the calculation is easier than trading either many index CFDs (except for the ASX200) or Forex as there is no need to add a further calculation to convert a profit/loss back into your account currency. Other position sizing issues to consider: Position sizing can only make a difference to your risk management if you adhere to your pre-planned exit strategy.
Be aware of gapping on market open from previous close price. This is at its potentially most severe subsequent to a company’s earnings report release and so you may want to consider avoiding this situation as part of your risk management plan. Once you have mastered basic position sizing, consider whether different market conditions or situations would merit a different tolerable risk level on which to base your position sizing calculations. e.g. a major economic news release increased general market volatility.
In such situations it may be that you enter a smaller position initially and then accumulate into the position if it goes in your desired direction. There is a FREE DOWNLOAD of an excel-based “indicative CFD position size calculator” you are welcome to use to assist you in this important part of trading entry. Feel free to use, but please pay attention to the notes.
Click on the link below. CFD position size calculator v2 Please feel free to connect with the team with any questions you have about share CFDs and how you can add this to your trading.

M any traders utilise options amongst their investment strategies either for income or capital growth. As with Forex and CFD trading, options offer an opportunity to get into a leveraged position giving exposure to the movement of an underlying instrument. One of the key factors that options traders may consider in their choice of specific markets to trade is liquidity, with a higher trading volume impacting positively on the ability to get in and out of trades at a fair price.For the options trader therefore, the breadth of choice and liquidity of US based options, make this market the preferred market to trade.
Like any type of trading, sustainable results require a depth of knowledge and commitment to trading an individual tried and tested system. This system should include in depth reference to risk management throughout. However, due to the market of choice, a trader can make regular profit and yet lose this (and potentially more) through the currency risks associated with trading in US dollars rather than, for example, their base currency of Australian dollars or GB pounds.
Although directional options traders usually choose to invest relatively small amounts with perhaps a few thousands, if trading US covered calls when options are sold over a portfolio of bought shares the investment can be substantial, often into a tens of thousands investment. So what is the risk? The reality is that profits can be 'used up', or losses can be compounded, by adverse currency movements.
The reason for this is simple. Let’s assume that your currency is AUD and it is transferred into USD for trading purposes. The exchange value when converted back to the original currency at some time in the future will be dependent not only on trading results but on the movement of AUD versus USD.
While your money is in your account in USD, weakness in AUD will mean a greater worth in AUD when converted back, whereas a lesser conversion worth will result if there is AUD strength while your money is sitting is USD. Let's give an example See below a weekly chart of AUD/USD. Note the price from the end of January 2018 at a level of 0.8134.
The price at March 20th 2019 was at 0.7100. So, an investment to fund a trading account of AUD$10,000 would have equalled an original USD value of $8134. With the movement over this period the value of the account when transferred back into AUD would have risen to $11468.98 or in other words a 14.67% increase.
So, in this case the underlying currency movements was of benefit. However, if this is the case when there is USD strength (when your money is in USD), with the same AUDUSD currency movement in the other direction, the loss could be 14.67%. This would mean that you would have had to profit by this 14.67% in your trades simply to breakeven (looking at the same chart this is the movement from the beginning of Jan 2016 to Aug 2017).
More than this of course, if you have lost $1468 on a similar price move in the other direction, broke even on your trades during that period so your equivalent AUD value is $8532 your trading return would have to be now 17% profit to recover the original capital. Just to reinforce a previous point, bear in mind of course we have chosen only a $10,000 example, some of you who are trading strategies such as 'Covered Calls' may have considerably more than this in the market (and so considerably more currency risk) than the example we have given. So what can you do?
So, your choices are twofold. Allow your invested trading capital to be subjected to the risks associated with underlying currency movements or, Hedge the currency risks with a non-expiring, low cost Forex position. If option “b” looks attractive, the reality is you can: Remove this risk completely through opening a very small leveraged forex trade (so akin to an insurance policy or a non-expiring put option) Attempt to optimise your hedge by timing its placement and exit i.e. use technical landmarks, to decide when to get in and out of a hedge.
Learn how to reduce the risk We are happy not only to show you how but guide you step by step in how to set this up. There are a couple of practical issues you would need to have in place to manage this well but again we can go through these to enable you to make the right decision for you. We have a webinar session planned that aims to offer you the information you need to look at removing currency risk in your options trading which you would be very welcome to attend.
To access this free training session on 3rd June go to https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/6726730073741725196 This session will give you learning relating to: Explore the advantages of hedging against currency risk and potential risks of not doing so. Offer a step by step guide of to how to work out the amount and process of placing a currency “hedge”. Demonstrate how to action this, and where to get any support you need to make it happen.
Discuss advanced approaches to utilising this in your trading including “timing your hedge”. Either way, we trust that this article has been of interest and welcome any comments.

What is the Gold-to-copper ratio and why is it important? And more importantly, what could it be telling us? The Gold-To-Copper Ratio Health Check Copper is often referred to as a barometer for economic growth and gold has historically been the safe-haven, a risk-off asset of choice for investors, so naturally comparing the two allows one to take a decent look at broader market sentiment.
Why Copper? Copper is one of the most widely used metals from both established and emerging economies and on top of that it is the only base metal used throughout all aspects of industrialization. Therefore increase in industrialization equates to an increasing demand in copper which ultimately relates to higher copper prices.
For this reason, the metal holds the moniker of "Dr. Copper." and why we can use it as an indicator of economic growth. The Ratio Explained In layman's terms, the gold-to-copper ratio is the current gold price divided by the current copper price.
However what is more import is what this ratio indicates and how it can help us get a firmer understand of the macro forces at play within the market. The gold-to-copper ratio is effectively a visual representation of risk-on/risk-off sentiment. The higher the ratio means that fewer people are buying copper and more are buying gold so what we see is a risk-off sentiment, meaning that people are more cautious with their money and investments, sticking to low-risk products.
The lower the ratio equates to the inverse, vis-à-vis risk-on sentiment and more stimulus into the economy. Gold-to-Copper Ratio Historical Traits In June of 2016, the story on everybody’s radar was bond yields at the lowest since the middle of the financial crisis with the U.S. 10-year yield printing lows at 1.3579% in and then for the next few weeks we saw the yield sit at around the lows and the 1.50% level. Was the gold-to-copper ratio signaling a shift to us?
The ratio peaked in early September 2016 but very quickly began to tumble as Gold prices started to see sell-offs and Copper started to see pretty heavy buying, this resulted in seeing the ratio price drop by about a third. It was during the second leg lower for the ratio that we started to see a bid in bond yields and the transition to a more risk-off environment, which we can see in the chart below that shows both the U.S. 10yr Bond yield (orange line) and the Dow Jones Industrial Index (white shaded line) begin their rally higher. U.S. 10yr Bond yield & Dow Jones Industrial Index So how can we utilise this within our trading?
To quote Samuel Goldwyn “The harder you work, the luckier you get.” and in this case, the harder you work to understand the interconnectivity of financial markets the ‘luckier’ you get with trading. Understanding how certain assets can be used to evaluate market/economic sentiment allows you to move away from being dependent on the obvious indicators, i.e. economic data & mainstream media sources and will enable you to be ahead of the curve, active as a pose to reactive. So, with the Gold price just popping above $1200 an ounce and Copper prices pushing lower on the back of poor Chile exports, we could see the gold-to-copper begin to push higher again, was the Gold-to-copper ratio flashing a warning to us before the significant equity market sell-off on Wednesday the 10th?
Will a push higher in the ratio signal a further sell-off in equities? We will be watching closely, both the commodity prices and equity indices to see where the market takes us next. This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis.
They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: Bloomberg
