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Economic Updates

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Economic Updates

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The Week ahead – Debt ceiling deal, NFP and Aussie CPI – charts to watch

News over the weekend of a tentative debt ceiling deal had been achieved should see investors in the week ahead return to their usual programming of trying to predict the next move from the Federal Reserve, which this week’s jobs data will be a critical component. Late Saturday, the White House and Republican negotiators announced a debt ceili...

May 29, 2023
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US stocks finished mixed – Nasdaq surges on NVDA earnings boost – Gold down again

US indices finished mixed in Thursdays session two up, two down though with an overall positive bias on debt ceiling progress and strong economic data. The Nasdaq easily outperformed as a huge up day from Nvidia (NVDA + 24%) after a positive earnings report saw the tech heavy index surge over 200 points. ­­Strong data was also released...

May 26, 2023
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US stocks sink as debt ceiling impasse continues to weigh on investors, RBNZ rate decision today

Major US indices were lower on Tuesday, extending to the downside through the session, as debt limit negotiations extend further to the edge after little progress was made in further talks between the White House and Republican negotiators. The Nasdaq slumped 160 points 1.26% as the risk off tone and tightening economic conditions hit growth stocks...

May 24, 2023
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AU and Asian markets open in the green after mixed lead in from Wall St

The ASX200, Nikkei and Hang Seng are all looking to open in the positive after a mostly positive lead from Wall St with all major US indices but the Dow eking out gains despite ongoing debt ceiling headwinds and some hawkish Fed speak. The Russell 2000  saw strong advances, aided by a bounce in regional banks with PacWest (PACW) surging after anno...

May 23, 2023
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The Week Ahead – RBNZ, UK and US inflation and debt ceiling impasse headline risk events

With Junes FOMC policy meeting still up in the air as far as markets are pricing in, FOMC minutes and US PCE core inflation figures (reportedly the Fed’s favoured measure) released this week will be closely watched and likely go a long way to settling market participants mind as to what the next move from the fed will be. From the UK inflation da...

May 22, 2023
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US equities rally, dollar and yields surge on data and hawkish Fed speak

US indices were firmly higher on Thursday with a Big Tech bias, with the Nasdaq outperforming , rallying 1.5%, lifted by the likes of Nvidia (NVDA), Amazon (AMZN), and particularly Netflix (NFLX), which saw near double-digit strength after a positive ad tier subscriber update. Strong data releases (good news is good news now?) and a more haw...

May 19, 2023
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US stocks surge on bounce in regional banks and debt ceiling optimism

Major US indices finished solidly in the green in a broad rally as risk appetite returned to the market amid optimism debt ceiling negotiations and a reassuring update from regional bank Western Alliance (WAL) which reported growth in its deposits. The Dow was up over 400 points, or 1.24% while the Russell 2000 outperformed, up over 2%, flying on a...

May 18, 2023
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US equities finish in the red after retail sales miss and ongoing debt ceiling concerns

US stocks finished mostly lower in what was a risk-off session amid mixed data releases from the US and ongoing debt ceiling concerns weighing on risk markets. A lackluster forecast from retail giant (and Dow component) Home Depot (HD) also didn’t help. The Dow led losses, ending up down over 300 points while the Nasdaq was the least worst of ...

May 17, 2023
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US stocks finish in the green on weak data and regional bank short squeeze

Major US indices finished broadly higher after weak Empire State manufacturing figures fed into the “bad news is good news” for equities narrative, and a surge higher in regional bank stocks allayed fears of further crises in that sector in the short term. The Russell 2000, being the home of most of these mid-sized banks outperformed, finishing...

May 16, 2023
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The Week ahead – US retail sales, jobs data from UK and Australia, RBA minutes.

Global markets enter the 3rd week of May against the backdrop of rising market concern regarding the ongoing US debt ceiling impasse as well as ongoing risks in the US banking system, both of which dampening risk sentiment and seeing markets rangebound as they await a solid catalyst to get moving. US 1 year Credit Default Swap price spiking on d...

May 15, 2023
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US stocks mostly lower as bank woes sour risk sentiment, BoE hikes rates

US indices closed the session mixed with outperformance in Nasdaq, propped up by Google(GOOG) as their continuing I/O event bolstered their stock price. However, other major indices finished solidly in the red, with the Dow down over 200 points, dragged down by Disney, and the S&P500 and Russell 2000 suffering from further banking woes after Pa...

May 12, 2023
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US stocks finish mostly up in chaotic session after CPI slip

US equity markets whipsawed in a volatile session after CPI figures showed a slight softening in the headline reading, this saw stocks initially rally, before dipping and rallying again to finish the session on a strong footing. The Nasdaq outperformed in a lower yield environment and was given a boost by Alphabet (GOOG) which rallied over 4% amid ...

May 11, 2023
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US CPI preview – the chart to watch

Today’s US CPI number is the most important US data release this week. With the FX markets coming into this release with relatively low energy and searching for a catalyst any surprise will likely trigger significant intraday volatility in FX and other risk assets. We’re also coming into this release with a market split on the Feds next rate...

May 10, 2023
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US stocks fall ahead of CPI, Hawkish Central bank speak and debt limit limbo

US indices finished modestly lower on a light news day with traders cautious ahead of upcoming US CPI figures and following hawkish rhetoric from numerous ECB and Fed officials. There is also the US debt limit negotiations on the back of traders’ minds as agreement remains in limbo and talks look likely to be protracted. The Dow Jones was down...

May 10, 2023
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Asian markets looking to open flat after US stocks finish mixed in choppy, rangebound session

Major US indices finished mixed to flat on a slow news day and lighter than usual volumes not helped by the UK being on a holiday as traders seem to be waiting for pivotal inflation data released later this week. The Nasdaq, lifted by lingering good feeling from recent Tech earnings outperformed, finishing up 21 points, while a paring back of a ...

May 9, 2023
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