Three central banks are deciding rates simultaneously, Brent crude is swinging wildly around US$100 a barrel, and a war in the Middle East is rewriting the inflation outlook in real time. Whatever happens this week could set the tone for markets for the rest of 2026.

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Quick facts

• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announces its next cash rate decision on Tuesday, with markets now pricing a 66% chance of a second hike to 4.1%.
• Some analysts have warned the Iran war could push US inflation to 3.5% by year-end and delay Fed rate cuts until September, making this week's FOMC dot plot the most closely watched in years.
• Brent crude is flirting with US$100 a barrel after Iran launched what state media described as its "most intense operation since the beginning of the war."

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RBA: Will Australia hike again?

The RBA raised the cash rate for the first time in two years to 3.85% at its February meeting after inflation picked up materially in the second half of 2025. 

The question now is whether it moves again before even seeing the next quarterly CPI print, which isn't due until 29 April.

Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser acknowledged ahead of the meeting that policymakers face a genuinely divided decision, shaped by conflicting economic signals at home and growing instability abroad. 

Financial markets currently assign around a 66% probability to another hike, with a May increase considered virtually certain regardless of what happens Monday.

Key dates

• RBA Cash Rate Decision: Tuesday 17 March, 2:30 pm AEDT
• Governor Bullock press conference: Tuesday 17 March, 3:30 pm AEDT

Monitor

• Any reference from Bullock to further hikes being likely in May
• AUD/USD immediate reaction.
• ASX banks and REITs.

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FOMC: Hold likely, all eyes on the dot plot

The FOMC meets on March 17–18, with the policy statement scheduled for 2:00 pm ET on March 18 and Chair Jerome Powell's press conference at 2:30 pm. CME FedWatch shows a 99% probability that the Fed holds rates at 3.50% to 3.75%. 

The real action is in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and dot plot. The current median dot shows one 25-basis-point cut for 2026. If it shifts to two cuts, that is dovish and bullish for risk assets. If it shifts to zero cuts or adds a rate hike into the projection, markets could react in the other direction.

Further complicating matters, Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chair expires on May 23, 2026. Kevin Warsh is the leading candidate to replace him, viewed as more hawkish on monetary policy. Any comment from Powell on this transition could move markets independently of the rate decision itself.

Key Date

• FOMC Rate Decision + SEP/Dot Plot: Thursday 19 March, 4:00 am AEDT
• Powell press conference: Thursday 19 March, 4:30 am AEDT

Monitor

• Powell's language on oil and tariff inflation.
• 2-year Treasury yield reaction.
• CME FedWatch repricing for any shift in the September cut probability.

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Bank of Japan: Further tightening could be brought forward

The BOJ meets on March 18–19, with the decision expected Thursday morning Tokyo time. The current policy rate sits at 0.75% (a 30-year high), and the January 2026 meeting produced a hold in an 8-1 vote.

Governor Ueda has categorised the March meeting as "live," noting the timeline for further tightening could be "brought forward" if Shunto spring wage negotiations yield stronger-than-expected results. 

Those results are due to begin flowing in during the week, making them the critical input for the BOJ's decision. Nomura expects 2026 Shunto wage hikes to come in around 5.0%, including seniority, with base pay growth of approximately 3.4%. If results confirm that trajectory, the case for a March hike strengthens considerably.

The complication is the global backdrop. Japan imports roughly 90% of its energy needs, and oil around US$100 per barrel is pushing up import costs and threatening to add inflationary pressure. A BOJ hike into a global oil shock would be an unusually bold move. 

Most market participants still lean toward a hold at this meeting, with April or July seen as the more likely timing for the next move.

Key Date

• BOJ Policy Rate Decision (currently 0.75%): Thursday 19 March, morning AEDT

Monitor

• Shunto wage results as the primary trigger for a March hike.
• Ueda press conference language and forward guidance on April and July.
• USD/JPY reaction.

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Oil: Continued volatility

Brent crude briefly touched US$119.50 per barrel earlier in the week before dropping 17% to below US$80, then rebounding toward US$95 on mixed signals from Washington about the Strait of Hormuz. 

As of Thursday, Brent was back over US$100 as Iran launched fresh attacks on commercial shipping and the IEA reserve release failed to bring meaningful relief.

In the scenario where a longer conflict inflicts damage to energy infrastructure, analysts estimate CPI could rise to 3.5% by the end of 2026, with gasoline prices approaching US$5 per gallon in the second quarter.

For this week, oil acts as a macro meta-variable. Every geopolitical headline, ceasefire signal, tanker attack, reserve release, and Trump comment could move equities, bonds and currencies in real time.

Monitor

• Any resumed Strait of Hormuz tanker flow.
• IEA emergency reserve release.
• Trump statements on Iran.
• Energy sector equities.

7 global commodity stocks to watch as the Iran war reshapes markets

US-Israeli strikes on Iran launched on 28 February sent Brent crude surging past US$119 a barrel, gold above US$5,200, and defence stocks to all-time highs.

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Against that backdrop, investors are focusing on a small group of commodity-linked names that may remain sensitive to further moves in oil, LNG and gold. The key question is whether the shock proves sustained, or whether a ceasefire, shipping normalisation, or policy action removes part of the geopolitical risk premium.

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1. ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM)

ExxonMobil has been one of the clearest beneficiaries of the price surge. Shares hit a record high of US$159.60 in early March and are up approximately 28% year-to-date. 

The company produces 4.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, has a Permian Basin breakeven of around US$35/barrel, and is committed to US$20 billion in buybacks for 2026.

Wells Fargo raised its price target to US$183 from US$156 following the escalation, while broader analyst consensus sits around US$140–$144. However, XOM is already trading above many consensus targets, and disruption to its LNG partner QatarEnergy poses a near-term operational headwind.

What to watch

• Whether Hormuz disruptions persist beyond 4–6 weeks.
• A G7 emergency stockpile release or a credible ceasefire could compress the war risk premium.
• Any adjustments to analyst consensus targets.

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What rising oil prices mean for Exxon

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2. Chevron (NYSE: CVX)

Chevron touched a new 52-week high of US$196.76 in early March and has risen approximately 24% year-to-date. 

The company's Brent breakeven for dividends and capital expenditure sits around US$50/barrel. This means that at current Oil prices above US$90, it is generating significant free cash flow.

However, Chevron has temporarily halted operations at a gas field off Israel's coast following missile activity in the region, and the stock has since pulled back more than 1% as the conflict directly affects its operations.

What to watch

• Direct operational updates from Chevron's Middle East and Israeli assets.
• Any further halts that could weigh on near-term production. 
• Crude holding above US$90, which keeps Chevron generating significant free cash flow.

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3. Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS/NYSE: WDS)

With Qatar having halted output after Iranian drone strikes, buyers across Asia and Europe are scrambling for alternative supply. Woodside, as one of Australia's largest LNG producers and exporters, sits outside the conflict zone and is well-positioned to benefit from rerouted demand.

Analysts caution that actual substitution takes time due to shipping and contract constraints, meaning the price uplift may be more durable than a simple spot trade. European TTF benchmark gas prices surged over 50% in a week, amplifying the margin environment for non-Middle Eastern LNG producers.

What to watch

• The pace and timeline of any Qatar LNG production restart.
• If QatarEnergy remains offline for weeks, Woodside could begin re-contracting European buyers at elevated spot prices.
• An Australian dollar move higher could be a headwind worth tracking for USD-denominated earnings.

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4. Cheniere Energy (NYSE: LNG)

Alongside Woodside, Cheniere is the most direct US beneficiary of the Qatar LNG disruption. As the largest LNG exporter in the United States, it saw intraday strength at the start of the conflict week. 

US domestic energy production has buffered American consumers from the worst of the shock, but the export premium has widened as European and Asian buyers pay up for non-Gulf supply.

The trade is "geopolitically sensitive," and any resolution could reverse upside quickly. But for as long as Hormuz and Gulf gas infrastructure remain compromised, Cheniere is positioned to benefit structurally.

What to watch

• Any diplomatic breakthrough that reopens Gulf shipping lanes. 
• Announcements of new long-term offtake contracts signed at current elevated prices.

Find more statistics at  Statista

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5. Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM)

Gold surged 5.2% in a single session on 1 March, touching US$5,246/oz, as markets sought safe-haven assets. Newmont, the world's largest gold producer, has seen its reserves effectively revalued at these prices. 

It is up alongside gold's 24% year-to-date gain, and its all-in sustaining costs remain largely fixed.

However, Gold miners sold off sharply on 4 March, and Newmont fell nearly 8% in a single session as broader risk-off deleveraging hit precious metals equities. 

The stock has recovered since, but volatility remains high. For longer-duration investors, analysts note that "safe" mining jurisdictions such as Canada, Australia, and Nevada are commanding fresh premiums as Middle East instability raises the value of geopolitically secure supply.

What to watch

• Whether gold can hold above US$5,000/oz. 
• A prolonged conflict could accelerate an M&A cycle in junior gold miners. 
• A ceasefire or broad equity deleveraging event as the primary risk to monitor.

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6. Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT)

Lockheed Martin reached a new all-time high of US$676.70 on 3 March, up over 4% for the day. Its F-35 fighters, precision-guided munitions, THAAD systems, and HIMARS rocket artillery are central to the ongoing air campaign. 

The US Department of Defence is moving to replenish munitions stockpiles, and Trump's stated ambition to raise the US defence budget to US$1.5 trillion by 2027 adds a longer-term structural tailwind beyond the immediate conflict.

Defence stocks are rising amid classic geopolitical risk pricing, but investors should note that actual contract flow takes time to translate into earnings, and valuations already reflect considerable optimism. 

What to watch

• The pace of US Department of Defence munitions replenishment orders.
• How quickly contract wins translate into backlog growth.

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Top defence stocks to watch: Iran winners and losers

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7. Barrick Gold (NYSE: GOLD)

Barrick is tracking gold's historic run alongside Newmont, with the stock up sharply year-to-date. It sits at a roughly US$78 billion market capitalisation and is reporting record free cash flow projections as its all-in sustaining costs remain well below current spot prices. 

Like Newmont, it experienced a sharp single-session selloff of more than 8% during the broader 4 March deleveraging event, before partially recovering.

Royalty and streaming companies such as Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) are being favoured by some investors as a more inflation-protected way to access gold upside, given their lower operational cost exposure. But Barrick remains one of the world’s largest listed gold miners, with earnings that are highly sensitive to changes in the gold price

What to watch

• Gold's ability to hold above US$5,000/oz. 
• Any Barrick moves toward junior miner acquisitions.
• Energy cost inflation, as rising fuel prices could begin to squeeze miner operating margins.

The latest move in oil has put energy names back in focus. Over the past six months, Exxon Mobil and Baker Hughes have outperformed Brent crude on a normalised basis, Chevron has remained broadly constructive, SLB has lagged the commodity and Woodside's broker consensus has been more measured.

When crude moves, the impact rarely stays contained to the commodity itself. Higher oil prices can affect inflation expectations, shipping costs and corporate margins across the global economy.

What the latest move is showing

There are three broad ways companies can benefit from firmer oil prices:

1. Producing oil and gas, by selling the commodity at a higher price

2. Providing services and equipment to producers

3. Transporting oil around the world

Each of the names below represents one of those exposure types, with a different risk profile when crude rises.

1. Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM)

Over the past six months, Exxon Mobil has outperformed Brent crude, with its share price up nearly 35% compared with about 30% for Brent. As of 11 March 2026, both were trading just over 3% below their all-time highs, while Exxon remained closer to its 52-week high.

Exxon Mobil is one of the world's largest integrated oil companies, with exposure spanning exploration, production, refining and chemicals. When oil prices rise, its upstream business may benefit from wider margins, while its scale and diversification can help cushion weaker parts of the cycle.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) vs. Brent Crude 3-month performance

Analyst consensus: Buy

According to TradingView data, analyst sentiment towards Exxon is broadly positive. Of the 31 analysts tracked, 15 rate the stock Strong Buy or Buy, 13 rate it Hold, 1 rates it Sell and 2 rate it Strong Sell.

That positive view is linked to Exxon's balance sheet strength and higher-margin production. The most optimistic analysts project a 1-year price target as high as US$183.00. The average price target is US$145.00, which sits about 3.6% below the current trading price.

2. Chevron (NYSE: CVX)

Chevron is another global integrated major that has benefited from the recent move higher in crude, with its shares trading near 52-week highs. Like Exxon, Chevron operates across the value chain, including upstream production, refining and marketing.

Chevron's completed acquisition of Hess adds Guyana and other upstream assets, which some analysts see as supportive over time. That said, the earnings impact remains subject to integration, project execution and commodity price risks.

Exxon Mobil vs Chevron performance, 6-month chart

Analyst consensus: Buy

Chevron is viewed similarly to Exxon, with broker sentiment remaining broadly constructive. Recent TradingView aggregates show 30 analysts covering the stock over the past three months, with 17 rating it Strong Buy or Buy, 11 at Hold, 1 at Sell and 1 at Strong Sell.

Analysts have highlighted Chevron's diversified portfolio and the potential contribution from Hess, although commodity price volatility and execution risk may keep some more cautious.

3. SLB (NYSE: SLB)

SLB, previously known as Schlumberger, is one of the world's largest oilfield services and technology providers. It supplies tools, equipment and software that help producers find, drill and complete wells more efficiently.

Over the past six months, SLB has lagged Brent crude, with the share price trading in a choppier range and remaining below its recent peak. That suggests the stronger oil backdrop has not been fully reflected in the share price.

That pattern is not unusual for oilfield services companies, where customer spending decisions often follow moves in the underlying commodity rather than move in lockstep with them. Any future re-rating would depend on factors including producer capital spending, contract timing, service pricing, offshore activity and broader market conditions. A firmer oil price should not be assumed to translate automatically into a firmer SLB share price.

SLB vs Brent crude, 1-month normalised performance

Consensus: Buy

According to TradingView data, third-party analyst consensus on SLB is Buy. Of the 33 analysts covering the stock, 27 rate it Strong Buy or Buy, 4 rate it Hold and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell.

That indicates constructive broker sentiment, although the gap between oil prices and SLB's recent share-price performance suggests investors may still want clearer evidence of improving service demand and pricing before the stock fully reflects the stronger commodity backdrop.

4. Baker Hughes (NASDAQ: BKR)

Baker Hughes is another major oilfield services and equipment provider, with additional exposure to industrial segments such as LNG and power infrastructure. Even when oil prices are not at extreme highs, advances in drilling technology and lower break-even costs have helped keep many shale plays profitable, supporting demand for its services.

The company has also been described as well positioned because of its balance sheet and its exposure to ongoing exploration and production activity. In a period of higher, or even stable-to-firm, oil prices, that mix of services and energy technology may create several revenue drivers.

Over the past six months, Baker Hughes has materially outperformed Brent crude on a normalised basis. Brent traded in a much tighter range for most of the period before moving higher late, while BKR climbed more steadily and reached a significantly stronger cumulative gain. That suggests BKR's share price benefited not only from the backdrop in oil, but also from company-specific optimism and broader support for oilfield services and energy technology names.

BKR vs Brent crude, 6-month normalised performance

Analyst consensus: Buy

According to TradingView data, Baker Hughes is categorised as Strong Buy. Based on 25 analysts who provided ratings over the past three months, 16 rated the stock Strong Buy, 3 rated it Buy, 4 rated it Hold, 1 rated it Sell and 1 rated it Strong Sell.

Overall, broker sentiment towards Baker Hughes is broadly positive, with more than three quarters of covering analysts rating the stock either Strong Buy or Buy, while most of the remainder were at Hold. That supportive analyst view appears to reflect BKR's exposure to both traditional oilfield services and broader energy and industrial technology markets, including LNG infrastructure.

5. Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS)

Woodside Energy gives the list an Australia-based producer with significant exposure to LNG and oil markets. Its earnings are closely tied to realised commodity prices, which makes the stock sensitive to shifts in crude and gas pricing, as well as broader global energy demand.

Compared with some of the larger US energy names, broker sentiment towards Woodside appears more measured. Investors are balancing the company's global LNG exposure and leverage to stronger energy prices against softer recent realised prices, project and execution risks, and longer-term regulatory and decarbonisation pressures.

Analyst consensus: Hold

According to TradingView data, Woodside is rated Neutral/Hold. Of 15 analysts, 2 rate it Strong Buy, 4 rate it Buy, 7 rate it Hold, 1 rates it Sell and 1 rates it Strong Sell.

The average 12-month price target is A$29.20 versus a current price of about A$30.28, implying downside of roughly 3.6%. Relative to the larger US energy names in this list, that points to a more cautious broker view.

6. Global oil tanker operators

Oil tanker companies can benefit when firmer oil prices, OPEC+ policy shifts and geopolitical tension increase long-distance shipments and disrupt usual trade routes. When oil volumes travel further, 'tonne-mile' demand can support tanker day rates and profitability even when the broader energy market is volatile.

Analyst consensus: N/A

This is a broader industry category rather than a single publicly traded stock, so there is no single broker consensus to cite. Analyst views would need to be assessed at the company level, such as Frontline plc (FRO), Euronav (EURN) or Scorpio Tankers (STNG).

More broadly, the sector is cyclical. Any benefit from tighter shipping markets can reverse if routes normalise, freight rates fall or supply increases.

Risks and constraints

Higher oil prices do not remove risk for these names.

• If prices rise too far, too fast, demand destruction and policy responses can weigh on future earnings.

• Political decisions from OPEC+ or other major producers can reverse a rally by increasing supply.

• Services and tanker companies are highly cyclical. When the cycle turns, pricing power can fade quickly.

• Company-specific issues, including project execution, realised pricing and capital spending, still matter.

Taken together, these names may benefit from firmer oil prices, but they also carry sector-specific, geopolitical and company-level risks that deserve close attention.

Key market observations

• Woodside provides LNG and oil exposure, although current broker sentiment is more neutral than for the larger US names.
• Tanker operators may benefit when freight markets tighten, though that trade remains highly cyclical and route-dependent.
• SLB and Baker Hughes may benefit if firmer oil prices translate into more drilling and completion activity, but the share-price response has been mixed.
• Exxon Mobil and Chevron offer direct exposure to stronger upstream margins, supported by diversified operations.

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^{References in this article to Exxon Mobil, Chevron, SLB, Baker Hughes, Woodside, tanker operators, analyst consensus ratings and price targets are included for general market commentary only and do not constitute a recommendation or offer in relation to any financial product or security. Third-party data, including consensus ratings and target prices, may change without notice and should not be relied on in isolation. Energy and shipping exposures are cyclical and can be materially affected by commodity price volatility, realised pricing, production changes, project execution, geopolitical disruptions, freight market conditions, regulatory developments and shifts in investor sentiment. Any views about potential beneficiaries of higher oil prices are subject to significant uncertainty.}