Trading strategies
Explore practical techniques to help you plan, analyse and improve your trades.
Our library of trading strategy articles is designed to help you strengthen your market approach. Discover how different strategies can be applied across asset classes, and how to adapt to changing market conditions.


Volatility doesn't discriminate. But it can punish the unprepared.
Stops getting hit on moves that reverse within minutes. Premiums on short-dated options climbing. And the yen no longer behaving as the reliable hedge it once was.
For traders across Asia, navigating this environment means asking harder questions about risk, timing, and the assumptions baked into strategies built for calmer markets.
1. How do I trade VIX CFDs during a geopolitical shock?
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day implied volatility on the S&P 500. It is often called the “fear gauge.” During geopolitical shocks such as the current Iran escalations, sanctions announcements, and surprise central bank actions, the VIX can spike sharply and quickly.
What makes VIX CFDs different in a shock
VIX itself is not directly tradeable. VIX CFDs are typically priced off VIX futures, which means they carry contango drag in normal conditions.
During a geopolitical shock, several things can happen at once
- Spot VIX may spike immediately while near-term futures lag, creating a disconnect.
- Spreads on VIX CFDs can widen significantly as liquidity thins.
- Margin requirements may change intraday as broker risk models adjust.
- VIX tends to mean-revert after spikes, so timing and duration are critical.
What this means for Asian-hours traders
Asian market hours mean many geopolitical events can break while local traders are active or just starting their session.
A shock that hits during Tokyo hours may already be priced into VIX futures before Sydney opens.
Some traders use VIX CFD positions as a short-term hedge against equity portfolios rather than a directional trade. Others trade the reversion (the move back toward historical averages once the initial spike fades). Both approaches carry distinct risks, and neither guarantees a specific outcome.

2. Why are my 0DTE options premiums so expensive right now?
Zero days-to-expiry (0DTE) options expire on the same day they are traded. They have become one of the fastest-growing segments of the options market, now representing more than 57% of daily S&P 500 options volume according to Cboe global markets data.
For Asian-based participants accessing US options markets, elevated premiums during volatile periods can feel like mispricing, but usually reflects structural pricing factors.
Why premiums spike
Options pricing is driven by intrinsic value and time value. For 0DTE options, there is almost no time value left, which might suggest they should be cheap but the implied volatility component compensates for that.
When uncertainty increases, sellers may demand greater compensation for the risk of sharp intraday moves.
This can be reflected in
- Higher implied volatility inputs.
- Wider bid-ask spreads.
- Faster adjustments in delta and gamma hedging.
In higher-VIX environments, hedging flows can contribute to short-term feedback loops in the underlying index. This can amplify price swings, particularly around key levels.
What this means for Asian-hours traders
Many 0DTE options contracts see their most active pricing and hedging flows during US trading hours. Entering positions during the Asian session may mean facing stale pricing or wider spreads.
If you are seeing expensive premiums, it may reflect the market accurately pricing the risk of a large same-day move. Whether that premium is worth paying depends on your view of the likely intraday range and your risk tolerance, not on the absolute dollar figure alone.

3. How do I adjust my algorithmic trading bot for a high-VIX environment?
Many algorithmic trading systems are built on parameters calibrated during lower-volatility regimes. When VIX spikes, those parameters can become outdated quickly.
The regime mismatch problem
Most trading algorithms use historical data to set position sizes, stop distances, and entry thresholds. That data reflects the conditions during which the system was tested. If VIX moves from 15 to 35, the statistical assumptions underpinning those settings may no longer hold.
Common failure modes in high-VIX environments include
- Stops triggered repeatedly by noise before the intended directional move occurs.
- Position sizing based on fixed-dollar risk, which becomes relatively small compared to actual intraday ranges.
- Correlation assumptions between assets breaking down.
- Slippage on execution that erodes edge.
Approaches some algorithmic traders consider
Rather than running a single fixed set of parameters, some systems incorporate a volatility regime filter. This is a real-time check on VIX or ATR that triggers a switch to different settings when conditions shift.
Approach adjustments that some traders review in high-VIX environments
- Widen stop distances proportionally to ATR to reduce noise-driven exits.
- Reduce position size to maintain constant dollar risk relative to wider expected ranges.
- Add a VIX threshold above which the system pauses or moves to paper trading mode.
- Reduce the number of simultaneous positions, as correlations tend to rise during market stress.
No adjustment eliminates risk. Backtesting new parameters on historical high-VIX periods can provide some indication of likely performance, though past conditions are not a reliable guide to future outcomes.
4. Is the Japanese Yen (JPY) still a reliable safe-haven trade?
During periods of global risk aversion, capital has historically flowed into JPY as investors unwind carry trades and seek lower-volatility holdings. However, the reliability of this dynamic has become more conditional.
Why has the yen historically moved as a safe haven?
Japan’s historically low interest rates made JPY the funding currency of choice for carry trades and when risk-off sentiment hits, those trades unwind quickly, creating demand for yen.
Additionally, Japan’s large net foreign asset position means Japanese investors tend to repatriate capital during crises, further supporting JPY.
What has changed
The Bank of Japan’s shift away from ultra-loose monetary policy in recent years has complicated the traditional safe-haven dynamic.
As Japanese interest rates rise:
- The scale of carry trade positioning may change.
- USD/JPY can become more sensitive to interest rate spreads.
- BoJ communication and domestic inflation data may influence JPY independently of global risk appetite.
The yen can still behave as a safe haven, particularly during sharp equity sell-offs. But it may respond more slowly or inconsistently compared to earlier cycles when the policy divergence between Japan and the rest of the world was more extreme.
What to watch
For traders monitoring JPY as a safe-haven signal, BoJ meeting dates, Japanese CPI releases, and real-time US-Japan rate spread data have become more relevant inputs than they were a few years ago.

5. How do I avoid ‘whipsawing’ on energy CFDs?
Whipsawing describes the experience of entering a trade in one direction, getting stopped out as the price reverses, then watching the price move back in the original direction.
Energy CFDs, particularly crude oil, are especially prone to this in volatile markets. And for traders in Asia, the combination of thin liquidity during local hours and sensitivity to geopolitical headlines can make this particularly challenging.
Why energy CFDs whipsaw
Crude oil is sensitive to a wide range of headline drivers: OPEC+ production decisions, US inventory data, geopolitical supply disruptions, and currency moves.
In high-volatility environments, the market can react strongly to each headline before reversing when the next one arrives.
- Price spikes on a headline, stops are triggered on short positions.
- Traders re-enter long, expecting continuation.
- A second headline or profit-taking reverses the move.
- Long stops are hit. The cycle repeats.
Approaches traders may consider to manage whipsaw risk
Some traders choose to change their risk controls in volatile conditions (for example, reviewing stop placement relative to volatility measures). However these may increase losses; execution and slippage risks can rise sharply in fast markets
Other approaches that some traders review:
- Avoid trading crude oil CFDs in the 30 minutes before and after major scheduled data releases.
- Use a longer timeframe chart to identify the prevailing trend before entering on a shorter timeframe, reducing the chance of trading against larger institutional flows.
- Scale into positions in stages rather than committing full size on initial entry.
- Monitor open interest and volume to distinguish between moves with genuine participation and low-liquidity fakeouts.
Whipsawing cannot be eliminated entirely in volatile energy markets. The goal of risk management in these conditions is not to predict which moves will hold, but to ensure that losses on false moves are smaller than gains when a genuine directional move follows.
Practical considerations for volatile Asian markets
Asian markets carry structural characteristics that interact with volatility differently from US or European markets:
- Thinner liquidity during local hours can exaggerate moves on thin volume, particularly in energy and FX CFDs.
- Events in China, including PMI releases, trade data, and PBOC policy signals, can move regional indices.
- BoJ policy decisions have become a more active driver of JPY and Nikkei volatility in recent years.
- Overnight gaps from US session moves are a persistent structural risk for traders unable to monitor positions around the clock.
- Margin requirements on leveraged products can change at short notice during high-VIX periods.
Frequently asked questions about volatility in Asian markets
What does a high VIX reading mean for Asian equity indices?
VIX measures expected volatility on the S&P 500, but elevated readings typically reflect global risk aversion that flows across markets. Asian indices such as the Nikkei 225, Hang Seng, and ASX 200 can often see increased volatility and negative correlation with sharp VIX spikes.
Can 0DTE options be traded during Asian hours?
Access depends on the platform and the specific instrument. US equity index 0DTE options are most actively priced during US trading hours. Asian traders may face wider spreads and less representative pricing outside those hours.
Are algorithmic trading strategies inherently riskier in high-volatility conditions?
Strategies calibrated during low-volatility periods may perform differently in high-VIX environments. Regular review of parameters against current market conditions is prudent for any systematic approach.
Has the JPY safe-haven trade changed permanently?
The Bank of Japan’s policy normalisation has introduced new dynamics, but JPY has continued to strengthen during some risk-off episodes. It may be more conditional on the nature of the shock and the BoJ’s concurrent posture.
What is the best way to set stops on energy CFDs in high-volatility conditions?
There is no universally best method. Many traders reference ATR to calibrate stop distances to prevailing conditions rather than using fixed levels. This does not guarantee exit at the desired price and does not eliminate whipsaw risk.

The bid-ask spread is the difference between the highest price a buyer is willing to pay for an asset (the bid) and the lowest price a seller is willing to accept to sell it (the ask or offer). This spread is a fundamental element of market liquidity and represents the transaction cost that traders need to consider when entering and exiting positions. For example, if there is a spread of 1 pip between buyers and sellers, this represented the cost of trade taken.
It is worth pointing out at this stage the much is made of the “spread” in comparison between the value that one broker may offer versus another. However, there are far more influential factors that determine the success or otherwise of trading such as determining high probability entries, effective risk management and appropriate profit taking exits. This is particularly the case for retail investors who trade smaller contract sizes, as opposed to institutional traders, who often trade much larger sizes of trade ad so small differences in spread will have more impact.
Nevertheless, some understanding of the bid/ask spread, and how this may alter at various points during the trading day is important. Factors influencing bid-ask spread Although there are more, we have focused on the top eight factors we think are of not only most influential but have trader relevance. Asset Liquidity: A highly liquid market usually has a smaller bid-ask spread.
When there are more market participants interested in trading a specific asset, there are more bids and asks available, which narrows the spread. In essence, the abundance of buyers and sellers in a liquid market reduces the difference between the buying and selling prices. Trading Volume: Similar to liquidity, higher trading volume often leads to a narrower spread.
Increased trading activity means more frequent transactions, which can reduce the spread. Active markets tend to have more competitive pricing due to the large number of transactions taking place. Asset Volatility: Increased volatility usually results in a wider spread.
When an asset's price exhibits rapid and unpredictable movements, market makers and traders face higher risk. To compensate for this risk, they set wider spreads. This is often observed when major economic data or news is released, causing abrupt market movements.
Market Hours: Spreads might be wider during market open and close due to uncertainty and reduced liquidity. This phenomenon is often seen toward the end of market hours and the beginning of new trading sessions. Additionally, some assets may have wider spreads when traded outside their primary market hours, such as futures contracts associated with indexes that are closed during specific times.
Asset Popularity: Well-known assets usually have tighter spreads compared to less popular instruments. For example, in the Forex market, currency pairs are categorised by liquidity. Major pairs like EUR/USD tend to have tighter spreads because they are highly popular among traders.
Exotic pairs, on the other hand, have wider spreads due to their lower trading activity e.g., US Dollar/Polish Zloty (USDPLN) Regulatory Environment: The level of regulation in a market can influence the spread. Forex markets, for instance, are less regulated compared to stock markets with centralized exchanges. This can lead to comparatively wider spreads in forex trading, as there is no central authority to standardize pricing.
Transaction Size: Large orders can impact the spread, making it wider, especially in less liquid markets. When a trader places a substantial order, it can temporarily disrupt the supply and demand balance in the market, causing a wider spread until the order is executed. Technological Factors: Faster trading systems and networks can lead to tighter spreads.
Advanced technology allows for more efficient matching of buyers and sellers, reducing the spread. High-frequency trading and electronic communication networks (ECNs) contribute to this efficiency by facilitating quicker trade executions. Other factors to consider with the bid-ask spread Slippage and Spread: A significant aspect to consider in trading is slippage, which refers to the difference between the expected price of a trade and the actual price at which it is executed.
A wider spread, indicating a larger gap between the bid and ask prices, can increase the risk of slippage. This happens because, in volatile markets or with wider spreads, it becomes more challenging to execute trades at the precise desired price. Traders may experience slippage when their orders are filled at a different, often less favourable, price due to market fluctuations.
Therefore, traders should be acutely aware of the potential impact of spread size on the likelihood and extent of slippage, especially when trading in fast-moving markets. Stop Placement and Spread: As spreads widen, it's crucial to consider their influence on stop-loss orders. Stop-loss orders are designed to limit potential losses by automatically triggering a trade closure when the asset's price reaches a specified level.
However, an increasingly wider spread introduces the possibility that the spread alone could trigger the stop-loss order. This is particularly relevant when the stop level is set close to the current market price or price has moved towards the stop. Traders need to strike a balance between setting stop levels that provide adequate protection and avoiding premature triggering due to spread fluctuations.
Having a good understanding of the typical range of spreads for the assets they are trading can help traders make more informed decisions when placing stop orders to manage risk effectively. Alternative accounts and differing spreads Some brokers offer different types of platforms that may offer tighter than the spread associated with a standard account. Often, there is a small brokerage payable for such accounts and the trader must decide which is the best option for them.
If you are interested in looking at different account types with different spread at GO Markets then drop our support team an email at [email protected] and we would be delighted to walk you through the options that are available to you. Summary Understanding the bid-ask spread is important for traders as it has the potential to affect many aspects of trading including costs, strategy, risk management, and perhaps even market interpretation. Although there are significantly more influential factors on your potential trading outcomes than the width of the spread, if treating your trading as a business, which arguably is the right approach to have, then knowing about such factors and their impact would seem prudent.

Backwardation and contango are terms used in the context of futures markets to describe the relationship between the prices of futures contracts with different expiration dates for a specific underlying asset, such as commodities, currencies, or financial instruments. In this article, we aim to explain these terms within the context of futures contracts. Futures Contracts Revised Let's start with a brief overview of futures contracts.
A futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price at a specified time in the future. These contracts are traded on organized futures exchanges and can relate to a wide variety of underlying assets, including commodities, currencies, stock indices, interest rates, and more. Futures contracts can be settled in two ways: either through physical delivery, where the underlying asset is physically delivered on the specified date, or through cash settlement, where the difference between the contract price and the market price on the settlement date is paid in cash.
Each futures contract expires on the third business day prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the delivery month. There are five key components of a futures contract namely: Underlying Asset: The specific commodity, currency, or financial instrument being bought or sold. Quantity: The amount or size of the underlying asset in the contract.
Price: The price agreed upon today for the asset's delivery at a future date. Delivery Date: The future date on which the asset will be delivered or settled. Delivery Location (if applicable): The place where the physical asset will be delivered if the contract involves physical delivery.
Futures contract participants are generally of three types Hedgers: Futures contracts can be used to mitigate the risk of adverse price movements in an underlying asset. For example, airline companies, which use a lot of fuel and are sensitive to changes in oil prices, can buy oil futures to lock in current prices and protect themselves against future price hikes. If oil prices increase, the gains from the futures contract can offset the increase in fuel costs.
Speculators: These are traders who seek profits by predicting market movements and opening positions accordingly. For example, a forex trader might think that the EUR/USD currency pair is going to rise in the next week based on economic indicators. The trader buys a futures contract on EUR/USD with the expectation of selling it later at a higher price.
Arbitrageurs: These individuals aim to profit from price discrepancies in different markets or times. For instance, if natural gas is trading at $3.00 per million BTU in the U.S. market and at $3.10 in the European market, an arbitrageur could buy natural gas futures in the U.S. market and simultaneously sell in the European market, profiting from the price difference. What are Backwardation and Contango?
Backwardation and contango describe the relationship between the spot price of an asset and the prices of multiple futures contracts for that same underlying asset with different expiration dates. Simply put, these states are determined by more than one price level. Backwardation Backwardation occurs when the futures prices for contracts with near-term expiration dates are higher than the prices for contracts with later expiration dates.
This situation suggests that the market anticipates a shortage of the underlying asset in the near future. Reasons for backwardation include: Supply Concerns: If there are expectations of a supply disruption or scarcity of the underlying asset in the near term, the immediate futures contracts might be bid up in price relative to those further out. Storage Costs: For commodities with carrying costs, such as storage costs for physical delivery, backwardation can occur when the convenience of holding the physical asset immediately outweighs the cost of holding it for delivery in the future.
Immediate Demand: If there is strong demand for the physical asset in the current period, futures contracts that reflect this demand might trade at a premium. Contango Contango refers to a situation in which the futures prices for contracts with later expiration dates are higher than the prices for contracts with nearer expiration dates. Contango suggests that the market expects the supply and demand dynamics of the underlying asset to be more balanced in the near term and potentially oversupplied in the future.
Reasons for contango include: Storage and Carrying Costs: If the cost of storing the physical asset for delivery in the future is higher, it can result in contango, as later contracts would need to compensate for these costs. Interest Rates: In some cases, the yield curve and interest rates might influence contango. If the cost of borrowing to buy the physical asset is lower than the expected gains from holding it, contango can occur.
Market Sentiment: Contango can also emerge from market sentiment indicating that the current supply-demand balance is sufficient, but future uncertainties might lead to a higher price expectation. The Futures Curve Backwardation and contango are often illustrated through the use of a futures curve, which shows how the prices of futures contracts change over different time horizons. This curve begins with the current spot price and includes the prices of futures contracts with various expiration dates.
By connecting these points, the curve's shape—whether in backwardation or contango—reveals market expectations about future supply and demand, the cost of carry, interest rates, and other factors. Oil futures Example The following table below shows a snapshot of oil futures prices from August 2023. Expiry Month Futures Prices by Expiry Month Sep-23 81.4 Oct-23 80.73 Nov-23 80.22 Dec-23 79.81 Jan-24 79.32 Feb-24 78.92 Mar-24 78.57 Apr-24 78.11 May-24 77.75 Jun-24 77.39 Jul-24 76.98 Aug-24 76.56 Sep-24 76.19 Oct-24 75.82 Nov-24 75.5 Dec-24 75.17 Although this is useful, the picture is far clearer when these prices are plotted on a graph (See below) As you can see the slope is downwards and so would be described as in backwardation.
Where Can I Get Information on the Curve? Most major financial exchanges that trade commodity futures, such as CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), provide information on current futures curves. Conclusion Contango and backwardation are relevant to a wide spectrum of market participants, from speculative traders to long-term investors and from individual investors to companies and institutional entities.
Understanding these market conditions is valuable for decision-making, risk management, and identifying potential opportunities. GO Markets offers a wide range of CFD futures contracts that you can trade on platforms like MT4 and MT5, and we would be delighted to assist you with any questions you may have.

What is a P/E Ratio? The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is a indicative valuation metric that measures a company's current share price relative to its earnings per share (EPS). It is relatively simple calculation and is simply worked out through dividing the current share price by the Earnings per share.
There are two common variations of the P/E ratio: Trailing P/E: Based on the past 12 months of earnings. Forward P/E: Based on analysts' forecasts of earnings for the next 12 months. Why is it Potentially Important?
Valuation Insight: The P/E ratio may help investors assess whether a stock is overvalued or undervalued relative to its earnings. In simple terms, a high P/E ratio might indicate that the stock is overvalued, while a low P/E ratio could suggest undervaluation.It is not only the number itself which may be important but also the underlying trend of how PE ratio may be decreasing or increasing which is worth consideration. Comparative Analysis: By comparing the P/E ratios of different companies within the same industry, it is suggested that investors can identify relative bargains or expensive stocks.
This issue of the same industry is an important point. If we look at the PE ratio of the S&P500 as a whole the forward 12-month P/E ratio (August 2023) for the S&P 500 is 19.2 (For context the 10 year average is 17.4).However, to look at this number as a benchmark for valuation judgements on a specific company is flawed as if we look at the trailing and forward PE of individual sectors it tells a very different story. The table below provides this (as of August 2023) to illustrate this point (source: Finviz.com).
PE Forward PE Energy 7.21 9.55 Financial 13.41 12.34 Basic Materials 13.74 17.02 Utilities 18.57 2.97 Industrials 20.56 16.45 Healthcare 20.9 17.51 Consumer Cyclical 22.45 20.93 Consumer Defensive 23.08 20.49 Communication 24.9 16.98 Real Estate 30.72 27.64 Technology 34.33 22.62 As you can see, there is a gross disparity between sectors. Comparing two companies' P/E ratios is like comparing apples with oranges. Therefore, consideration against the sector norm is a far more legitimate comparison than against either the index as a whole, any random stock, or an arbitrary number e.g. above or below 10.
Market Sentiment: The P/E ratio also reflects market expectations to some degree. A high P/E ratio may indicate optimism about a company's growth prospects, while a low P/E ratio might reflect pessimism. However, many would question using P/E ratios alone as a measure of this without the context of other data.
Viewing a P/E ratio without some reference to growth numbers and trends is an approach that is unlikely to yield good outcomes. Factors Contributing to a Rising or Falling P/E Ratio Earnings Growth and Stock Price Movement: Although there are minute-on-minute small fluctuations in price, and thus P/E ratios, clearly the most influential time in terms of moves in P/E ratios is that of earnings releases. At this time, both trailing and expected forward EPS will be recalibrated, and significant changes may be seen in the P/E ratio.If a company's earnings grow and the stock price stays the same, the P/E ratio will fall, reflecting a company at value.
Conversely, if earnings fall and the stock price rises, then the P/E ratio will rise, potentially indicating overvaluation. It would seem logical, if earnings are imminent, to reserve judgment on valuation until after any such news. Market Expectations: If the market becomes more optimistic about a company's growth prospects, investors might be willing to pay more for the stock, increasing its P/E ratio.
For example, with a policy shift to increase renewable energy, it would be reasonable to expect forward growth expectations to rise across the board for all stocks in that sector, rather than perceiving a particular stock as overvalued.However, if growth and P/E ratio are rising because of a specific competitive advantage for that company, then it is not necessarily indicative of overvaluation despite the high P/E. Judging based on a high P/E ratio alone could lead to significant missed opportunities. Once again, this reiterates the need to look beyond just a simple P/E ratio to make judgments.
Interest Rates: Lower interest rates often lead to higher P/E ratios, as investors are more inclined to invest in equities. Conversely, higher interest rates usually lead to lower P/E ratios, as bond yields become more attractive than the dividend yield offered by many stocks, and interest rate hikes potentially impact sales, the cost of servicing debt, and subsequent potential impact on earnings. Traditionally, growth stocks are likely to be more interest-rate-sensitive, and therefore the impact on stock price and P/E ratios may differ from sector to sector, and depending on whether business is conducted locally versus globally.
Economic Conditions: A strong economy might lead to rising earnings expectations and P/E ratios. Conversely, economic uncertainty or recession might cause P/E ratios to fall. Key data trends are likely to be a useful gauge.
This is particularly the case for the “big” data points such as GDP, CPI and jobs data. Other Company-Specific Factors: Changes in management, product launches, legal issues, or other company-specific news can affect both the current stock price and anticipated effect on earnings, thus impacting the P/E ratio.As many of these types of corporate events are unpredictable, when they do occur, it merits not only an evaluation of any prospective investment ideas but also of currently open positions when the P/E ratio may have been part of your decision-making process. In summary, although the P/E ratio is noteworthy for many investors, judging value and entering a stock with a low P/E ratio requires a rigorous and systematic approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis of the issues discussed above.
A simple approach of comparing the P/E ratio of one company against another is unlikely to produce good outcomes. Focusing purely on this may mean that a low P/E ratio may be indicative of a company whose outlook is far from favourable, subjecting you to risk. Conversely, a high P/E ratio alone may not only indicate overvaluation compared to the current price but may also signify a company whose growth prospects are very positive.
Ignoring this based on the P/E ratio alone may result in missing out on opportunity. For those interested in a further exploration of evaluation of stocks with a low PE ratio, we have published an article that may help. “Look before you leap..FIVE reasons why a low PE may be a reason NOT to jump in” and can be accessed HERE

An oil price war and the pandemic struck the crude oil market at a time where the industry was already faced with a simultaneous demand and supply shock. Put simply, crude oil prices were already under pressure due to a flood of supply at a moment of diminishing demand. A Supply Glut which is mainly driven by US shale producers and a Weak Oil Demand Growth driven by the structural shift in the market! 2020 was set to be the confirmation of a new era for climate change.
As we entered a new decade, the extreme weather conditions around the world have forced leaders of many countries to reassess their actions over climate change and transform the global energy system. In the face of stronger climate action, the energy landscape is changing with the rise of renewables and the increased engagement on climate change, but there are still much debates about the pace of the transition and the extent of disruption. The Pandemic As the world grapples with the ongoing pandemic, different forms of lockdowns across the globe have severely impacted key industries of consumers of oil.
Global activities have slowed down on a massive scale with empty roads, grounded aircraft, plunging car sales and disrupted supply chains abruptly sapping oil demand. The extent of the disruptions in the energy market caused by the pandemic might leave a lasting impact on the oil market which may take years to overcome. Overall, it might still be too early to see that the pandemic could be the reason that either accelerate the pace in using renewables or delay that process.
Below $50 The coronavirus outbreak has caused crude oil prices to fall to its lowest level in more than a year and tumbled below a key $50 level. In a desperate attempt to stabilise oil prices, the world’s biggest oil producers have agreed to slash the world’s oil production to lower supply to counter the steep fall in demand. Source: Bloomberg Terminal Oil Demand Outlook While weekly crude oil inventory reports might provide some relief from time to time to the oil market, traders are mostly concerned with the ongoing uncertainty on the demand outlook.
The Oil Market Report October 2020 and the World Energy Outlook 2020 released this week provided some clarity on the energy market. In its October report, the International Energy Administration (IEA) reported that volumes of crude oil held in floating storage fell sharply by 70 mb (2.33 mb/d) to 139.1 mb in September. The IEA also predicted a significant stock draw in the fourth quarter which provided some support to crude oil prices.
However, the World Energy Outlook 2020 report released earlier this week reiterates the struggles of the energy market in the coming years. The organisation identified four main scenarios to analyse key uncertainties ranging from an energy world in lockdown to mapping out and building a sustainable recovery: The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) The COVID-19 pandemic has caused more disruption to the energy sector than any other event in recent history, leaving impacts that will be felt for years to come. In this scenario, COVID-19 is brought under control in 2021 and the global economy returns to pre-crises levels the same year.
The Delayed Recovery Scenario (DRS) In this scenario, the shadow of the pandemic looms large - Global energy demand rebounds to its pre-crisis level in early 2023 in the STEPS, but this is delayed until 2025 in the event of a prolonged pandemic and deeper slump, as in the DRS. In the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), a surge in clean energy policies and investment puts the energy system on track to achieve sustainable energy objectives in full, including the Paris Agreement, energy access and air quality goals. The new Net Zero Emissions by 2050 case (NZE2050) extends the SDS analysis.
A rising number of countries and companies are targeting net-zero emissions, typically by mid-century. Given the forecasts on the demand side, there is also increasing pressure from OPEC members and its allies to balance the supply side and avoiding flooding the oil market with extra supply. Crude oil prices have remained stuck within a range below the $50 mark as oil traders struggled to push prices higher dragged by the dire demand outlook.
The energy sector is among the worst-performing sector in the stock market as investors are also shifting their investment towards green energy. As lockdown eased, traders will likely eye the consumption of oil in emerging and developing countries rather than developed countries which are taking more steps towards climate change. The US election outcome might also be a driver of crude oil prices in the next couple of weeks as it will depend on the stance of the government towards climate change policies.


‘Trading the news’, is a phrase that is often said, but to new traders it can be a confusing statement without much context. What does it mean to trade the news? Is it simply trading a News Company, or is it trading based on a news report, this article will explain some of the intricacies of the famous strategy of ‘trading news’.
What is it? Trading the news is simply using an event, whether it be a global news event relating to a stock or sector news or an announcement from a company as a reason to enter a trade of a on a security or a derivative. A trader can only make money on a trade if the price of the chosen asset is moving.
If the price is stagnant then there is no use trying to trade it as there will be no money to be made. This is also known as volatility. In addition, traders and investors like to trade when there is a high level of liquidity as this allows for larger position sizes and easier movement in and out of a trade.
Why do some traders ‘trade the news’? There is multiple reason that trader will trade the new, but it is largely as news events act as catalyst for a shift in share price and increase in volatility. A general rule of the efficient market is that all information that is available is priced into the share price.
However, when news/announcements are first announced, the market must evaluate the worth of the news to the share price and this can happen quickly, or it can take a few days to assess. This is where money can be made when ‘trading the news’. Example In this example we have a company ABC.
ABC is a publicly listed company listed on the ASX and it share price is currently $1.00. with a market capitalisation of $1,000,000 ABC is company that creates and sells bicycles. Now imagine that this company signs a contract to sell 1000 bikes to Company DEF for $100,000 Immediately the news will be announced and the market including traders’ investors and others will have to assess how to value the contract. This will see a rush of volatility and buying/selling of the company’s shares.
Similarly, traders can trade the news relating Foreign exchange. Specifically, news from relating to the economy or an announcement from a countries Central Bank can provide a shift to the currency which triggers traders on corresponding currency pairs. In the example below, the Reserve Bank of Australia had just announced an increase in the interest rate for the cash rate largely in line with analyst expectation.
Some notable observation about the chart includes an initial influx of volume and increase in range for the candles relative to average levels. What is ‘Selling the news?’ It has been established that trading the news is when traders will try and use news catalysts as a signal for volatility when trading, however sometimes a seemingly good news event creates a sell off that can often lead to confusion on the part of the trader who taken a buy position. The reason for much of this selling goes back to the first question.
Why do traders trade the news? The market is trying to put a value on the announcement. Furthermore, this can be compounded by what are known as ‘trapped sellers.
The concept of trapped seller is that when a stock creates a gap above a previous closing price based and that gap is above previous long terms resistance zones, sellers who have been stuck in the stock long term will sell their holding at the first opportunity. This of course creates downward pressure on the price. The downward pressure incentivises short sellers and more selling occur thus causing a ‘sell the news’ type of event.
Take the following example of ASX listed company BUB. The news events were that the company had signed a contract to supply the USA with baby formular at a time when the country was dealing with a massive shortage of the formula. As we discussed above, in this chart we can see that as the market opened.
The price gapped form the previous close of $0.485 to $0.780 as the market opened. As the day wore on it became apparent that there was a great deal of long-term sellers who were using the opportunity to either take profits or cover to cover a loss. Subsequently the stock price kept falling for consecutive days as sellers continued to ‘sell the news’ Risks ‘Trading the news’ can be an inherently risky strategy, as an influx of volume comes into a stock the volatility often increases in volatility.
This means that the momentum of. If a trader is on the wrong side of the move it can be a dangerous as the price can move very quickly. Therefore, traders should be weary and have clear stops and exits points for when a trade goes the wrong way.


We frequently refer both in the articles we publish and the weekly “Inner Circle” sessions we present, to the benefits of a trading journal. However, the reality is that many traders make the choice not to measure trading despite the logical benefits of doing so. Whether you do or don’t currently, the bottom-line decision you are making is not only whether you do or don’t but how that positions yourself with your trading development.
We would suggest that this overall choice can be broken down into the following three sub-choices. You can make the decisions that are right for you subsequently. Sub-choice 1 – Measuring your system You are either making the choice to: Have certainty on not only whether your trading plan as a whole can create positive outcomes but have evidence to know which component parts of your plan are e.g. indicators you use for entry and exit, comparing strategies you trade, timeframes that work best for you, (and which are not) contributing to such outcomes.
Additionally, it allows you to compare what would happen if you change some of the perimeters on your potential results. OR You have no evidence as to whether your system as a whole and its components parts are working well to serve you in getting the results you desire. Nor do you can test and gather evidence as to what the impact of nay changes you may make to that system, Ask yourself… If I am serious about trading results which choice should I make?
Sub-choice 2 – Measuring you as a trader You are either making the choice to: Know the degree to which you are following your plan or otherwise so you can ultimately make a judgement on: a. Whether your system is working for you (all the points in sub-choice 1 above CANNOT be made unless you are following your plan religiously). b. What you need to work on in terms of tightening your behaviour e.g. on exits or entry c.
Whether there are certain market conditions which you find difficult or are ill-prepared for (so you can fill any knowledge gaps or avoid in the future). OR You can continue to trade as you do, avoiding any self-assessment and growth, and the refinement of your behaviour that may contribute to more positive trading outcomes. Ask yourself… If I am serious about trading results which choice should I make?
Sub-choice 3 – Improving your trading (closing the circle) (let’s assume you are keeping a journal for this one) You are either making the choice to: Measure with purpose that has clear follow through into further development and refinement of your trading plan and subsequently your actions. This facilitates the development of you as a trader based on your individual character and trading style. In practical terms, you ‘close the circle’ with a defined review and develop an action plan based on your review to test and change parts of your plan.
This is evidence-based trading! OR You can measure for measurements sake to on the surface appear to be “doing a right thing” but in reality, failing to unleash the real power of journaling, that is to make an on-going and continuous positive difference to your trading outcomes. Ask yourself… If I am serious about trading results which choice should I make?
In summary, if you have made the choice to read this article to its end you are left with one ultimate choice…to journal or not to journal including the three sub-choices that dependent on which you are making can impact on your trading. So, for one last time, Ask yourself… If I am serious about trading results what should my actions be with what I have read in this article? Our next steps and Share CFD education programme both have indicative trading journal templates to help get you started, and we would be delighted if you could join us.
Mike Smith Educator GO Markets Disclaimer The articles are from GO Markets analysts based on their independent analysis. Views expressed are of their own and of a ‘general’ nature. Advice (if any) are not based on the reader’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs.
Readers should, therefore, consider how appropriate the advice (if any) is to their objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. Find additional Forex trading education resources here. Next: 5-point checklist for using chart patterns within your tradin
